Is the Market for High Color Morgans Sustainable?

Catbert

Sorry for another GC post, but I was enamored by this lot simply because it was eye candy and, no I wasn't a bidder. I only own two Morgan dollars with one that is nicely reverse toned. This lot did not have a TV at PCGS.

I love mega toned coins but don't collect them generally. Most of us are aware of certain collectors who own multiples of these types of coins and more power to them. Yet, this segment seems especially vulnerable to me to get killed during a tough economic period.

What's your take on this aspect of the coin market assuming you appreciate toned beauties?

https://greatcollections.com/Coin/1226523/1884-O-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-64-CAC-Toned

Catbert

@david3142

Catbert

Oh, I just had a contradictory thought as I reflected on my "worth" thread. Got to factor that in I guess

Oldhoopster

I think as the prices continue climb for fancy toning, the line between natural toning and accelerated toning is going to continue to blur and at some point, collectors are going to have trouble distinguishing between the truly special toned coins and ones that had help. That should pop the bubble

Same thing for the PO-01 craze. If there is money to be made, the coin doctors will be there.

Downtown1974

Just my own observation, but I think I have seen some softening in the market already for toned Morgans and Jefferson nickels. There’s just so many of them now. Unless it is a “monster”, you can pick up an attractive toned Morgan for a couple of hundred in the 62-64 range.
Nicely toned Barber halves, quarters and Buffalo nickels on the other hand, show no sign of slowing down.

JBN

Eye appealing toned examples are rare and will garner correspondingly higher prices. Morgans are so very popular, so I think the demand for such pieces during a market downturn would not be as degraded as that for rare coins in less collected series. I would think that toned Morgan examples would generally follow the behavior of other rare coins during a market downturn, but with a slightly softer downturn effect stemming from the series popularity.

DelawareDoons

I just think the market over the past 15 years or so has shifted from completing sets to buying pretty coins. So eye appeal is king and should continue to be for the foreseeable future. It's tough to convince me to drop $5,000 on a well-worn 93-S when I could get an insanely nice toner for that $.

david3142

I bid $2500 (with BP) on that coin but I didn’t expect to win it. I don’t have a beautifully toned 84-O so I was interested but I thought the cheek was a little baggy for me to really push for it and I haven’t seen it in hand. I figured it would probably go for around $3500 so that result was perfectly in-line to me.

I don’t know if the current prices in general are sustainable but for really beautiful coins they’ve gone nothing but up in the 20 years I’ve been collecting toned coins. In many cases the market is very thin (e.g. 5-10 people would pay $3K for a coin but 2 are willing to pay $6K) so there’s always a risk for particular pieces that run away in an auction. Also, given the broad price increases and what I see on Instagram I suspect there are a lot of flippers and kids who have done well buying anything without appreciating the differences between coins at varying price levels.

While great toners have always done well there was a dip a few years ago when nice, but not exceptional, coins didn’t sell well. Still, I suspect there are enough newcomers to this niche that it will continue to do well, but obviously there will still be coins that realize truly insane prices (like that Franklin) which are not sustainable.

ricko

Personally, I do not understand the demand for these environmentally damaged coins. I understand that, much like art, it is an individual preference. Certainly not mine. That being said, I wish I had picked up some of these thirty years ago - an incredible profit could be made in today's market. Of course, many of these are not NT - but done so well, it is more a matter of opinion than a technical conclusion. Yes, it can be done, and is being done. Cheers, RickO

U1chicago

Lately all toned Morgans have been up, even the more “simple” ones. Those will likely not be able to sustain their lofty prices when the market falls. The high end toners will be better able to weather the storm. There is a growing base of demand and enough people with money (even in a down market) to sustain prices. Of course prices can (and likely will) fall, but it won’t be that dramatic.

ElmerFusterpuck

A coin like this probably would have fetched around $1K 10 to 15 years ago; it's very nice but not what would have been called a "monster" back then. Since the true monsters are very scarce and are in strong hands (i,e. @AuroraBorealis), it's the next tier of still nice toners that has been taking off over the past few years. It's even lifted some of the "meh" coins and mildly attractive common colored toners higher. Those coins will be the first to drop whenever the market turns.

U1chicago

Here is an example of a coin that could be had for under $400 at GC in the 2015-2017 period. It cost me double that a few years later and would be even more nowadays.

ChrisH821

I can understand the allure of these, but I prefer subtle toning or rim toning. Prices are sustainable as long as enough people demand them.

Cougar1978

Difficult to predict. What happens when the tarnish gets worse? It’s an esoteric market segment I don’t care to invest (gamble) in.

They are not my cup of tea nor do I like tarnished coins. However when there is a bid war prices can be in the stratosphere.

It’s sustainable to the extent 2 rich collectors are out there to get in a bid war for one. Beyond that all bets are off. Have you tried shop any around the bourse at a show lately?

AlanSki

I think once the coin doctors finally get to a point that their coins mimic naturally toned coins that have achieved their colors over several decades and the TPG’s can no longer discern between the two, the market will finally crash.

coinbuf

Only a nuclear world war could slow or stop the money flowing and chasing color. That well is endless.

braddick

Coins pleasing to the eye and a joy to own will always garner top money.
It always has been, always will be.

BryceM

I think the toned Morgan market is susceptible to the same forces that affect other niche segments of the market. Any of them could fall apart at any time. They are currently trendy (along with early Federal gold and several other things). The current toning fad across all series has shown remarkable resilience. Classic silver commems were once trendy. Today? Not so much. Tomorrow????

I own one Morgan with a bit of toning for type purposes. I'd be just as happy with a white example. While I can appreciate the rainbow and textile thing, it's an area that concerns me. I find it odd that pretty obverses seem to outnumber pretty reverses by a large margin. I've bid on a few pretty toners, and it might be fun to own one, but that's about as far as I'd want to extend myself in that market.

coinhack

@AlanSki said:
I think once the coin doctors finally get to a point that their coins mimic naturally toned coins that have achieved their colors over several decades and the TPG’s can no longer discern between the two, the market will finally crash.

And you don"t think they're there yet?

Catbert

@BryceM said:

I find it odd that pretty obverses seem to outnumber pretty reverses by a large margin. I've bid on a few pretty toners, and it might be fun to own one, but that's about as far as I'd want to extend myself in that market.

>
Ditto. My decision to own one Morgan toner was based upon the considerably cheaper acquisition price (PCGS 66 CAC).

MrEureka

@Catbert said:
Sorry for another GC post, but I was enamored by this lot simply because it was eye candy and, no I wasn't a bidder. I only own two Morgan dollars with one that is nicely reverse toned. This lot did not have a TV at PCGS.

I love mega toned coins but don't collect them generally. Most of us are aware of certain collectors who own multiples of these types of coins and more power to them. Yet, this segment seems especially vulnerable to me to get killed during a tough economic period.

What's your take on this aspect of the coin market assuming you appreciate toned beauties?

The market for things like that may be sustainable but IMHO the coins are awful "relative value" for almost anyone with a wide range of numismatic interests. Just consider what else you can get for that sort of money and (I hope) it should be obvious.

AlanSki

@coinhack said:

@AlanSki said:
I think once the coin doctors finally get to a point that their coins mimic naturally toned coins that have achieved their colors over several decades and the TPG’s can no longer discern between the two, the market will finally crash.

And you don"t think they're there yet?

Close, but not quite.

DollarAfterDollar

Toners you say?

Dave99B

That is one nice Morgan. I love beautiful, originally toned coins, but some of these prices make little sense to me. I suppose if I were filthy rich, I might be more interested. Whether it’s sustainable or not … I have no frigg’in idea.

Dave

fathom

No doubt some of it is sustainable. I do not think a general statement will work here.

The common date high MS vivid toners that sell for huge dollars, many times guide are not on as solid a perceived value foundation. Other relatively small premium toners and scarcer dates will hold IMO. There are specific criteria that determine a greater likelihood the toning is not AT, a green bean will help. The doctors are good though, and I see stuff selling and shake my head how it straight grades.

GSA toners will hold, from the bag to the sorting tray to the holder, that is difficult originality to argue with.

The uniqueness of the coloring, the aesthetics of the patterns are attractive to the buyers of coins, that is a fact, on a solid foundation.

Elcontador1

I'd rather buy an all there for the grade rare coin than an expensive pretty one. That's just me.

coastaljerseyguy

Very nice coins and thanks for sharing. Glad to see the color progression of my only 'quality' toner matches these coins (neon blue>magenta>orange/yellow>). Bot for $30 on EBAY almost 20 years ago when nice stuff at great prices could be had almost daily. Actually part of an original 79-S roll I bot for $600. Maybe this coin would fetch that amount on its own.

coinkat

Time, place and opportunity... and it all boils down to who is there and sees an opportunity

Catbert

@coastaljerseyguy said:
Very nice coins and thanks for sharing. Glad to see the color progression of my only 'quality' toner matches these coins (neon blue>magenta>orange/yellow>). Bot for $30 on EBAY almost 20 years ago when nice stuff at great prices could be had almost daily. Actually part of an original 79-S roll I bot for $600. Maybe this coin would fetch that amount on its own.

I think now is the time to cash in at GC for this type of material in my view.

joeykoins

@AlanSki said:
I think once the coin doctors finally get to a point that their coins mimic naturally toned coins that have achieved their colors over several decades and the TPG’s can no longer discern between the two, the market will finally crash.

Sorry, to disagree. To a point, that is.
You may be correct?
However, I wouldn't be surprised if the collectors cave in and WELCOME the doctored coins! You have to admit, some are quite beautiful.
Just my opinion.
Thanks

Cougar1978

I believe there will always be people bidding on them even getting into bid war.

But for me not what interested in nor want be high payer (bid war). More looking for stuff can move get positive margin.

gumby1234

@fathom coins in holders whether from being certified or GSA can be gassed.

keyman64

I think people have been asking this about the toner market for a couple decades now. Prices have only gone up, right?

U1chicago

@keyman64 said:
I think people have been asking this about the toner market for a couple decades now. Prices have only gone up, right?

There were segments that declined a bit after the 2008 financial crisis.

keyman64

@U1chicago said:

@keyman64 said:
I think people have been asking this about the toner market for a couple decades now. Prices have only gone up, right?

There were segments that declined a bit after the 2008 financial crisis.

So a short-term blip for some toners (that weren't likely the best of the best) during a housing market financial crisis? People have been asking this for decades.

Just because a coin is toned does not mean it is the best of the best. Always quality over quantity. And, I am not sure that strong toners are any more at risk to market changes than most other segments of the coin market.

U1chicago

@keyman64 said:

@U1chicago said:

@keyman64 said:
I think people have been asking this about the toner market for a couple decades now. Prices have only gone up, right?

There were segments that declined a bit after the 2008 financial crisis.

So a short-term blip for some toners (that weren't likely the best of the best) during a housing market financial crisis? People have been asking this for decades.

Just because a coin is toned does not mean it is the best of the best. Always quality over quantity. And, I am not sure that strong toners are any more at risk to market changes than most other segments of the coin market.

It wasn't all short term. In 2015 I was still seeing prices that were lower than 2007 levels for mid and high level Morgan toners (basically those that were one or two tiers below monster-which means not the absolute best but fairly high level coins).
2015 was the recent low and prices have generally increased since that point (and more than surpassed the pre 2008 prices).

And I'm the one who earlier said that I don't see nice toners dropping much; I'm just pointing out that it has happened fairly recently and will happen again (it just won't be as extreme as some of the doomsday crowd would have us believe).

MFeld

@AlanSki said:
I think once the coin doctors finally get to a point that their coins mimic naturally toned coins that have achieved their colors over several decades and the TPG’s can no longer discern between the two, the market will finally crash.

If we’re at or get to the point where the “TPG’s can no longer discern between the two”, how will we know that we’re at that point?😉

gumby1234

I think there will be ups and downs just like any other coin. The really beautifully toned coins I think will always do well overall. Just like any collectible quality and eye appeal are what people want. You don't want a rusty Mustang that doesn't run do you?

tcollects

@MFeld said:

@AlanSki said:
I think once the coin doctors finally get to a point that their coins mimic naturally toned coins that have achieved their colors over several decades and the TPG’s can no longer discern between the two, the market will finally crash.

If we’re at or get to the point where the “TPG’s can no longer discern between the two”, how will we know that we’re at that point?😉

maybe when all new submissions come back questionable toning, then the toners in older holders would be suspect, but it's my understanding that the grading companies don't guarantee toning value, so that monster toned dollar is worth $30 in their eyes, and so they have no incentive - other than their integrity -to turn away the grading fees

Cougar1978

Yes there is no CV for toners I know of so how could somebody even guarantee toning value? And then based on what? I doubt I could even tell AT from NT let alone what toners worth most. That’s another reason I avoid that area.

Barberian

@tcollects said:

@MFeld said:

@AlanSki said:
I think once the coin doctors finally get to a point that their coins mimic naturally toned coins that have achieved their colors over several decades and the TPG’s can no longer discern between the two, the market will finally crash.

If we’re at or get to the point where the “TPG’s can no longer discern between the two”, how will we know that we’re at that point?😉

maybe when all new submissions come back questionable toning, then the toners in older holders would be suspect, but it's my understanding that the grading companies don't guarantee toning value, so that monster toned dollar is worth $30 in their eyes, and so they have no incentive - other than their integrity -to turn away the grading fees

I would expect the opposite, i.e., the number of toned coins judged to have "questionable toning" would drop relative to coins with acceptable toning to reflect the coin doctors' improving skill in fooling the TPG services. At that point, they'll flood the market with AT coins and market integrity will be lost.

tcollects

@Barberian said:

@tcollects said:

@MFeld said:

@AlanSki said:
I think once the coin doctors finally get to a point that their coins mimic naturally toned coins that have achieved their colors over several decades and the TPG’s can no longer discern between the two, the market will finally crash.

If we’re at or get to the point where the “TPG’s can no longer discern between the two”, how will we know that we’re at that point?😉

maybe when all new submissions come back questionable toning, then the toners in older holders would be suspect, but it's my understanding that the grading companies don't guarantee toning value, so that monster toned dollar is worth $30 in their eyes, and so they have no incentive - other than their integrity -to turn away the grading fees

I would expect the opposite, i.e., the number of toned coins labeled "questionable toning" would drop relative to coins with acceptable toning to reflect the coin doctors' improving skill in fooling the TPG services. At that point, they'll flood the market with AT coins and market integrity will be lost.

sounds more likely than my idea

Cougar1978

What would one regard as a fair market price or premium for one?

skier07

@Cougar1978 said:
What would one regard as a fair market price or premium for one?

Throw the price guides away. There’s no such thing as a price guide for toned coins. Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder.

stman

Like many things if you’re going to play the game, know which ones are the right ones to step up for.

124Spider

Who knows? I don't particularly like the garishly-toned silver coins, but lots of people do. If ever there was something with little intrinsic value, completely non-necessary to life, it's expensive coins. I expect (as has been previously noted) that only technology can pop the bubble--people learning to effectively tone coins artificially.