AL MVP
craig44
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I hear so many talking heads calling for Judge to win this year. I realize he is going to eclipse 60 HR, but I just cant get over what Ohtani is doing. it is very very nearly unprecidented.
I choose Ohtani for my MVP. full disclaimer, I do not base my pics on who are the best players on the teams that make it to the playoffs.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
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I heard them discussing this just an hour ago on sports radio locally. They were saying that even though WAR is not universally beloved, GMs etc use it and Judge's WAR beats Ohtani's even with him playing both ways like that. So the conversation went on about how it might become a situation like with Jordan where you could give him the MVP every year (meaning Ohtani) or you could spread it around. And this year they would give it to Judge. They also discussed what Ohtani's pitching numbers would have to be to have him eclipse Judge this year.
I think WAR is a good tool, but I dont think it is the end all be all stats. that being said, I think the Radio guys got it wrong. Baseball Reference has Judge with 4.8 WAR and Ohtani with 3.3 batting and 4.6 pitching for 7.9 total. significantly higher than Judge.
It could be a Jordan situation, but If so, I wouldnt be in agreement with it.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
...
I knew I made a mistake quoting local sports radio. 🤷😂
Edit to add: I'm going to see if I can let them know. Lol
2nd edit. That show is over for the day. I'll try tomorrow. That station is on Twitch and I sometimes watch the Livestream. You can comment and they do read the comments. I'll see if I can give them a hard time.
The only thing I don't like about Ohtani is that he gets his at-bats thanks to the DH which I absolutely hate. Absent that rule he'd be just another pitcher who was a good hitter.
Judge all the way.
I like Judge too, but they could play Ohtani at first base.
I would agree with you if the voters actually looked at the word "Valuable" but they don't often use it.
Three reasons I think Judge will win;
He should break the Yankees single season HR record.
Yankees will be in the playoffs, Angels will miss.
Ohtani won it last year.
Let me say that NONE of those reasons makes Judge more valuable than Ohtani, but Puckett was never voted an MVP and he was THE difference in the Twins winning a couple WS.
Judge is really dominating the offensive numbers this year, but how can anyone beat Ohtani if he is a top 5 hitter AND a top 5 pitcher? He should win it every year?
I am in the camp of if the player deserves it, give him the MVP every year. I would have had no problem with Jordan winning 10 or more MVPs.
I just cant see how any player could be more valuable than Ohtani right now. he is a dominating pitcher and a very very good power hitter. And not "just for a pitcher" I would imagine his hitting would improve if he was able to focus 100% of his efforts on that facet of his game. Likewise, If he was able to be singularly focused on pitching, could he be the top hurler in the game?
I mean, he is leading his team in BA, HR, OBP, RBI, hits, Wins, ERA and K's. it is really unprecedented.
I dont fault a player in the MVP debates for playing for a bad team. if the situations were reversed, Ohtani on NY and Judge on LAA, it would be Ohtani unanimously.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
We agree here. So, 7 MVP's for Ted Williams?
Yes sir!!! Ted definitely got jobbed on some of those MVPs.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
And no World Series rings.
1941; hits .400 first in WAR, Runs, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+ finished in second place. Clear winner.
1942; wins Triple Crown, first in WAR, Runs, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+, second place. Joe Gordan wins. Wait..._ WHAT_? Worst ever choice?
1947; wins Triple Crown, first in WAR, BA, Runs, OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+, second place. Clear winner.
1948; leads in HR and doubles, second in WAR, third in Runs, first in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+ finished in third place. Boudreau had a great year, but Ted much better hitter.
1957; second in WAR, second in HR, first in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+ finished in second place. I can see Mantle here, but Ted nearly hitting .400 with a .731 SLG at the age of 38 is just amazing.
Ted wasn't going to win it in 1960 playing in only 113 games, but he was second in BA, first in OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+ and finished 7th.
Ted "deserved" at least three more MVP's imo.
Ted should also be credited with a third Triple Crown, he tied with George Kell for the Batting title in 1949 with Kell winning the title when taking their BA's to the fourth decimal point. That's ridiculous, (although mathematically correct, I suppose) it's harder to maintain the higher average while playing in 21 more games while leading the league in PA.
Not sure where you saw 4.8 for Judge. I just checked baseball reference and he's listed with an 8.7 WAR.
..
Oh no, sports radio guys vindicated (if this is true). Lol
Its got to be Judge hands down, no contest.
2nd dinger tonight Yanks were down 3-4, Judge comes up and ties the game, goes into extra innings.
Things were setting up perfectly for Judge in the top of the 10th, of course it starts with a runner on second base,
then the next guy walks, so first and second no outs. Judge is now the on deck hitter. So the no name batting in
front of Judge of course has to hit into a double play, so now a runner at third two outs. Automatic walk.
But Gleybor Torres did come up big later in the inning and Yanks won.
My point is, Judge comes up big time and time again. It seems like most of his HR and RBI's come at big moments
with the game on the line. The guy is clutch.
I do not by any means like the Yankees but I do like Aaron Judge. The guy is having a tremendous year and
maybe a guy who pitches and hits for a sub par team is a better all around player but Judge is more valuable.
The Yankees won loss record would look like the Angels without Judge in the lineup.
It might be best to evaluate this using WPA and cWPA, with best player being the former and most valuable the latter. That corrects for players not having the opportunity to be "valuable" to the team, that is it answers the question of how much of a chance to win the World Series without that player.
So Judge is 6.7 wins and 3.0% of a championship (which is really a lot if you think about it) and Ohtani is 4.6 wins and 1.1% of a championship. That's pretty decisive.
By this method, the MVP should be, hold on to your hats, Jhoan Duran, followed by Judge and Jordan Romano. NL is Goldschmidt, followed by Machado and either Devin Williams or Max Fried.
My prediction is that Duran doesn't get a single vote.
So a guy who pitches 1 (occasionally 2) innings in 52 games, most of which featured the team already having the lead, is the MVP of the American League?
This is the problem with trying to view players and their stats in isolation: it leads to erroneous conclusions.
A guy who comes in, throws 15 pitches and holds a lead is not more valuable than a guy who pitches six and gives you a chance to win nor is it more valuable than a center fielder who hits 20 more HR than the next best player. Given neither Duran or Romano contribute offensively 150 games a year, the idea that they somehow can even have a chance to have more value than Shohei Ohtani is absurd on its face.
By that logic, Shohei Ohtani would be more valuable pitching one inning 52 times than he would be starting 30 games while still serving as the DH?
It’s cute to twist numbers around and produce data for consumption but “the numbers” will always need some context and overall understanding of the sport and sports in general.
Your dissertations on Derek Jeter are just that: your “numbers” that “prove” that Derek Jeter was terrible and the Yankees should have played Randy Velarde reveal a total lack of context: his physical limitations were easily made up for by his heady plays, he got many a big hit in the postseason (and has the most hits all time in the postseason) and seem to lack the basic understanding that everything is just a little bit harder to do in the postseason. When you face a Bob Gibson, a Sandy Koufax, a Randy Johnson, a Josh Beckett or a Curt Schilling two or three times in a seven games series, your numbers should be somewhat muted - as is the case for most players.
Derek Jeter saw very little in the way of an appreciable dip.
Any and every hit in the postseason is clutch; Derek Jeter’s 200 hits is the most ever by any player and will be for quite some time.
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Whoever wins does not matter. One thing for sure is 2 owners are going to have to come up with a lot of cash to pay these 2 guys.
you are 100% correct. I am not sure how I came away with that number.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
agreed. those guys are going to get ludicrous amounts of money
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Have they ever chosen dual MVP's?
1948-76 Topps FB Sets
FB & BB HOF Player sets
1948-1993 NY Yankee Team Sets
Yes, Stargel and Keith Hernandez
Judge is already using the Red Sox to get the Yankees to give him what he wants.
It sure would be nice to see him in a yellow uniform with a beard!
Well, you've pretty much described Dennis Eckersley in 1992. 69 games, 47 for just one inning. The A's were ahead 58, tied 9, and behind only 2. Only difference is that, unlike Duran, he actually blew 3 saves.
It should be obvious, but apparently needs saying, but when Judge comes to bat up (or down) 10 runs in the seventh inning it really doesn't matter what he does.
Of course it's possible. Ohtani batting has added 10.4 wins for the Angels with all his positives, but he has cost the Angels 9.0 wins with all his negatives. Pitching 11.1 wins and 8.0 losses. So 4.5 wins net, which is very good. Duran, with a +8.5 and a -3.7 and a 4.8 total is even better. The 242 batters Duran has faced have come in vastly higher leverage situations than the 569 Ohtani has faced. For an extreme example, it means a lot more to induce a bases loaded double play with one out in a tied game in the 9th than a double play with one out and a 3-0 lead in the 3rd. So, yes, if Ohtani could somehow eliminate his negatives and only pitch in high leverage situations, he'd be more valuable to the Angels. Do you really think Mike Moore, who led the team in both wins and innings pitched, was more valuable to the 1992 A's than Eckersley?
Let's leave Jeter's defense aside for now except to note that I said nothing about his physical limitations, only to say that he cost the Yankees an awful lot by the way he played, both "physical limitations" and "heady plays". I'll also offer that the cWPA likely OVERvalues Jeter's contribution because it assigns all negatives to the pitcher, so Jeter's defense was treated as neutral, while all but the most ardent Jeter homers admit was not the case.
It is preposterous to say that "any and every hit in the postseason is clutch" unless we use a very loose definition of "clutch" which puts us right back where we started because everyone on a playoff team becomes a clutch hitter, or rather everything becomes a clutch at bat. But of course some at bats are vastly more "clutch" than others.
I contend that Jeter had meaningfully positive postseason series (arbitrarily chosen as a result that gave the Yankees more than a 5% greater chance to win the World Series than you did cheering at home) exactly 3 times in 33 series: the 1999 World Series and the 2000 ALCS and World Series. (The 1996 WS and 2011 ALDS were meaningfully negative for Jeter.) I can't figure out how to get a clean table to reproduce here, but near the bottom of this page https://baseball-reference.com/postseason/2000_WS.shtml#top_plays is a table of the top ten plays, value-wise, of the 2000 series. It shouldn't be surprising that four of these were in extra innings, even in game 1, and a fifth being Vizcaino's single to load the bases in the bottom of the 9th. By cWPA, Jeter comes in behind Rivera, Stanton, Vizcaino, and Clemens. I don't suppose anyone would seriously have considered Rusch or Franco for MVP, but they were more important, too. Fairly obvious that Rivera should have won MVP, with a cWPA three times that of Jeter.
This is a list of Jeter's postseason at bats sorted by most to least consequential as far as winning the World Series is concerned.
https://stathead.com/tiny/J8bgl
I love how there are still guys that want to knock the catalyst, captain and HOFer Derek Jeter; there are five players in baseball history with more hits in the regular season and no players with more hits in the post season. But this isn’t a Jeter thread, it’s a 2022 AL MVP thread, so let’s not make it one. 😉
Players who pitch in high leverage situations can’t have more value than players that create those situations with their performance.
You don’t build a baseball team around a closer or a middle reliever. They’re an important part of a winner, assuredly, but 95% of bullpen pitchers are failed starters. Making 15-20 pitches for one inning cannot have more value than 100 pitches and 5-7 IP.
In 1992, Dennis Eckersley saved 51 games and pitched brilliantly - perhaps the best season of his career, which you didn’t pick accidentally. However, in about 40 of those games that he finished the A’s had a lead of two, three or four runs and logic dictates he did not face the heart of the opposing teams order every time.
So, yes, Dave Stewart, Ron Darling, Bob Welch and the aforementioned Moore (the most wins and innings and also the worst pitcher of the four on the staff) were as important as the Eck in ‘92, regardless of what win shares, WPA or WAR may say.
And, oddly enough, I had Jhoan Duran on my Roto team much of the season and so I know exactly how well he has pitched this year.
Still, I’m pretty sure I’m not trading him for Aaron Judge. 🤣😂🤣
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Duran is having an amazing season!
Fine. Will move Jeter discussion to a new thread.
I'm not sure I have a lot to say to someone who would have voted for Moore over Eckersley in 1992 for MVP. (Yes, of course I chose a year when he won MVP to compare a reliever winning it to Duran this season.) I mean I can understand arguments for Puckett, McGwire, Alomar, Mussina, even Clemens or Thomas that year, but Moore over Eckersley?
And sure, Judge has been the key Yankee, but they've had huge positive contributions from Rizzo, Holmes, Cortes, King, and Schmidt as well. No one has ever carried a team like Yastrzemski did in 1967. Not even close. Never will again because teams don't have to be as good to get a shot at the series. It is enough to be led by an Alek Manoah to get a chance.
In a time like this, there are just a lot of empty at bats and empty innings thrown, ones that don't change the course of a season much. Few of those have occurred when Duran has been pitching.
Actually, I wouldn’t have voted for either player for MVP award. And MVP was not the discussion YOU posited anyway, it was who had more value to the 1992 A’s. But, yes, I’ll stand by the guy who lead the team in innings over a guy who closed out 51 games when 40 of them were very low leverage saves. And that’s a nice attempt at deflection - a classic technique of yours - but this time a discussion of the 1992 MVP race. If it were, there’s probably 25-30 guys who were more deserving of the award than Dennis Eckersley in 1992.
That’s the Harold Baines of MVP winners right there.
Huh? Rizzo bats .220, Holmes has been hurt and ineffective for about half a season, King was gangbusters, terrible and then done for the year since June. Schmidt has been up and down - literally between AAA and the big club - many times. Cortes has been excellent - conceded - but that’s a pitcher. You gave me one hitter and he’s a solid player - I love Rizzo the actual total baseball player - but even with his ability to take walks added the .220 average has been a very tough pill to swallow. As to the Yaz comparison and whether or not Judge is carrying the team?
Yes, I understand that you don’t use excellent relievers in games where you trail by five runs. I do not recall the Yankees bringing in Mariano Rivera into the game when they were down 5 in the 9th inning.
Also, the reality is that Jhoan Duran is a closer being used as a fireman; it is mainly because the Twins want to keep his value down in arbitration. A first class organization is using him, rightly or wrongly, in the more traditional closer* role.
*While this may seem out of whack, I fully endorse the way he’s being used, too. Using your best reliever in the 7-8-9th - whenever the heart of the other teams lineup is up - is a winning move, to me.
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^^^^^^^^^ Best relievers have been wasted so much on very low leverage situations just because it is the 9th inning. there are many times, perhaps most, when a teams best reliever should be in the game shutting down a possible rally in the 6th, 7th inning and not drawing stick figures in the dirt out in the pen waiting for the 9th inning to come.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
So, who is Judge going to sign with this winter and how much will it cost them?
I sure would hope the Yankees would pony up and resign their own. It just seems right that Judge would remain a Yankee.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
It will cost a ton.
He has been healthy these last two years but was a train wreck(health wise) the previous three years.
A roll of the dice.
I am sure the Red Sox will make the price go through the roof to make the Yankees pay the high price.
I think the price will be well in excess of $400K.
I do not think the question is per year, but how many years. Judge will be 31 at next contract. How many productive years will there be for the price to be paid?
I think you mean $400 million.
that is a good point about Judges age. he has a history of being fragile.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I stand corrected, I do mean 400 million and I agree that he has been fragile over his career.
That is going to be a sticking point in his contract that he has been fragile but has been heathy the past 2 seasons.
We don't know how many years he is looking for in a new contract either.
Someone is going to make him a big offer though and he will not come cheap.
Judge. Word is he is open to going home next year (Bay Area native) and the Giants are said to be interested and should be able to pay him if the decide to get into the bidding war. G's have a core of strong starting pitchers when healthy, but they need a strong bat to get things rolling - losing Posey to retirement really messed up the hitting this year, and with Belt and Crawford getting old and not very effective at the plate (after having amongst their best seasons last year), they really need to get a new home run king who is local. We will see........... The open question is will they pay him knowing his health history?
Lots of talk about Judge carrying the Yankees this year. The last 8 games, Yanks are 7-1 and Judge is 6-23 with one HR, one RBI, and a bunch of walks (which apparently for some are super boring). The Yankees clinched their division the last week with basically no support from Judge.
Judge is having a great season and deserves the MVP but if he is on the Angels they are still a basement dweller.
Robb
Carrying a team for a season doesn't imply the guy is solely responsible for the success of that team. The fact they went 7-1 during a small downturn for Judge doesn't detract in any way from his carrying the team before that.
And adding Judge and his 61 homers to the Angels would make them a basement dweller. They're in 3rd place without him - not like they'd get worse by having him.