1878 8TF $1 VAM 9 1st Die Pair Morgan Dollar

orgmr

The 1878 8TF $1 VAM 9 1st Die Pair Morgan Dollar is on the VAM Top 100 list and is a Cherrypicker's Guide variety FS-009. On Vam World's website it is listed as a R.7 rarity here:

http://ec2-13-58-222-16.us-east-2.compute.amazonaws.com/wiki/1878-P_VAM-9

But on the PCGS population there are over 300 certified here:

https://www.pcgs.com/coinfacts/coin/1878-8tf-1-vam-9-1st-die-pair/133792/45

The rarity rating now must be a R.3 at best, does anyone have a ideas if that is correct now?
Thanks

lilolme

First let me say this is not my thing (just a casual VAM observer).
On pcgs website it has this and I think this explains it but didn't double check.

3sidesofsilver

According to various accounts, 303 of these were struck before a die broke, necessitating a change and ending the 1st die pair run. All minted on the afternoon of March 11, 1878.

Crackouts and resubmissions probably accout for the number of certs about equal to the mintage, as one would think that not every VAM 9 is accounted for. Although I suppose that is theoretically possible, but not likely.

lilolme correctly notes the PCGS rarity scale as 7 and VW indicates the same.

LanceNewmanOCC

@orgmr said:
The 1878 8TF $1 VAM 9 1st Die Pair Morgan Dollar is on the VAM Top 100 list and is a Cherrypicker's Guide variety FS-009. On Vam World's website it is listed as a R.7 rarity here:

http://ec2-13-58-222-16.us-east-2.compute.amazonaws.com/wiki/1878-P_VAM-9

But on the PCGS population there are over 300 certified here:

https://www.pcgs.com/coinfacts/coin/1878-8tf-1-vam-9-1st-die-pair/133792/45

The rarity rating now must be a R.3 at best, does anyone have a ideas if that is correct now?
Thanks

fwiw, i think the vam guys have it narrowed down to about how many were struck from a number of methods, i'm sure including emission sequences, die states, examples known etc.

to answer your question about rarity. my understanding is still that rarities are not really updated and haven't been for a long time and IIRC, rarities are NOT now being assigned to discoveries due to the sheer impossibility of knowing just how many are out there for 99% of the over 6,000 vams known, so far and many to come.

i checked on one of my discoveries (one of the tougher, rarer ones imo) just to see how many more, if any, have came to light and it appears none have but i didn't ask the community outright. it isn't some random obscure die state like so many are and there SHOULD be at least a few handfuls of them known but i didn't see any but 1 in any vam sets. i found 2 of the same one in a canvas bag of morgans a nice B&M shop handed me to consider for purchase. kinda weird they stuck together in the same quantity after 140+ years.

MOST of the premium vams have enough history established with prices to give one some basic guidelines to work with. it is the more newer (past few years or so and current/future) that will probably pose a big problem as there can be small hoards for most of the vams now discovered, just like any coins really.

orgmr

Thanks everyone. I've found this list of the VRS - VAM Rarity Scale, does it seem like the right one? If so then I think the 78 8TF VAM 9 is now a R-6.

The rarity scale identifies how likely you are to encounter the listed VAM

R-1 = Common (Tens of Millions)

R-2 = Not so Common (Several Million)

R-3 = Scarce (Hundreds of Thousands)

R-4 = Very Scarce (Tens of Thousands)

R-5 = Rare (Several Thousand)

R-6 = Very Rare (Several Hundred)

R-7 = Extremely Rare (Few Tens)

R-8 = Unique or Nearly Unique (Several)

LanceNewmanOCC

@orgmr said:
Thanks everyone. I've found this list of the VRS - VAM Rarity Scale, does it seem like the right one? If so then I think the 78 8TF VAM 9 is now a R-6.

The rarity scale identifies how likely you are to encounter the listed VAM

R-6 = Very Rare (Several Hundred)

.
that sounds about right from the coins i've seen and the expert's estimations of how many were struck. i haven't looked at the pops for the 5-6 TPGs holders we are likely to find these in and probably quite a few raw, ungradeable as well.

lets ask messy to see if he recalls better than i, the estimated numbers. (although i'm sure we've discussed this here before and the answer is probably in the archives but would be cumbersome to find) @messydesk

ifthevamzarockin

IIRC the R scale is a guess by Leroy at the time of discovery and is not revised over time.

messydesk

@ifthevamzarockin said:
IIRC the R scale is a guess by Leroy at the time of discovery and is not revised over time.

Correct. Most of these estimates turn out to be wrong. I've written at length about the R-values in the past, discouraging their use. They will not be used on any new VAM assignments going forward. I'd write more about it and the VAM 9, but I'm using my phone now, so that'll have to wait until tonight if there's interest.

messydesk

Back to a keyboard, so time for more words. Regarding the VAM 9 number of 303 being struck before the die broke, that is not true. The first delivery of coins to Linderman on March 12 was 303 coins, but that doesn't mean those were the only coins struck with that die pair. That's less than 4 minutes of coins "Merrily Clanking into the box at the rate of eighty per minute." [Chicago Tribune, 3/2/1878] A couple years ago I did a more rigorous analysis of the 8TF mintage that had been used to come up with the 750,000 number that's been in use for decades. Part of this was dividing up the 41 different die pairs into 6 different groups based on rarity. Those that are the most common were assumed to average 50% above the target mintage per die pair, or 120,000 coins. I then started reducing the number for each successive group. The most common 14 VAMs, comprising the first 2 of 6 rarity groups, I have averaging 75,000 coins per die pair. I ended up using 500 as the average mintage for the rarest. (Aside: one of the rarest, VAM 14.17, sold unattributed in a Cleaned AU holder in a Heritage auction a couple days ago for $5,000.) The VAM 9 I put in the "scarce" category (4 out of 6) along with VAMs 5, 14.4, 14.5, 14.8, and 15. The number I used for these was an average of 7000 per die pair. The total 8TF mintage in my analysis is 1,281,500. This is still an estimate, of course, but a far more accurate one than the 750,000 number. I presented details of the analysis at the FUN Show in 2017 as well as during the Summer Seminar Morgan Dollar class.

gumby1234

@messydesk Didn't the die for the VAM 9 fail after the 303 were minted? I saw this mentioned somewhere.

lilolme

@gumby1234 said:
@messydesk Didn't the die for the VAM 9 fail after the 303 were minted? I saw this mentioned somewhere.

I am not saying it is true (I have no clue) - One place to read about it is VAM World but really short with:

According to a reporter present, "only 303 pieces were struck" when the die failed and new ones had to be used.

VAM World also states that the Obverse die was also used for Vam 14 and 14.15.

http://www.vamworld.com/wiki/1878-P_VAM-9

As orgmr noted in the OP the pcgs pop is over 300 but of course there are duplicates in many pop reports.
PCGS pop VAM 9: 321
NGC pop VAM 9: 81
NGC pop VAM9a: 11
How many in other TPG slabs or raw?
Or melted?

gumby1234

@lilolme I've had this one for 30 years now.

LanceNewmanOCC

@gumby1234 said:

.
goodness. you purchased/submitted that while i was doing swim practice/meets.

very nice!

messydesk

@lilolme said:

@gumby1234 said:
@messydesk Didn't the die for the VAM 9 fail after the 303 were minted? I saw this mentioned somewhere.

I am not saying it is true (I have no clue) - One place to read about it is VAM World but really short with:

According to a reporter present, "only 303 pieces were struck" when the die failed and new ones had to be used.

VAM World also states that the Obverse die was also used for Vam 14 and 14.15.

http://www.vamworld.com/wiki/1878-P_VAM-9

As orgmr noted in the OP the pcgs pop is over 300 but of course there are duplicates in many pop reports.
PCGS pop VAM 9: 321
NGC pop VAM 9: 81
NGC pop VAM9a: 11
How many in other TPG slabs or raw?
Or melted?

There are plenty of mistakes on VAMWorld, and this interpretation of events is one of them. I've fixed it. The only mention of the number 303 anywhere is in the number of coins delivered to Linderman on March 12 in the initial delivery. The Chicago Tribune article doesn't give any mintage numbers for the first day. The Cincinnati Enquirer said that 70,000 had been struck by the evening of March 12.

My population of VAM 9 is 58 coins, and VAM 9A is 12. Some overlap will exist with TPG pops, but not necessarily a lot.

gumby1234

@messydesk what do you mean by "My population of VAM 9 is 58 coins, and VAM 9A is 12"

messydesk

@gumby1234 said:
@messydesk what do you mean by "My population of VAM 9 is 58 coins, and VAM 9A is 12"

Coins that I have attributed and labeled through my service.

gumby1234

So you think the pop is higher than the 303 because of the pop numbers? Coins like this probably get run thru the mill more times because of how quickly the price jumps with each higher grade. Especially once you get better than VF.

Pop numbers aren't accurate for almost any coin as it is.

Your service is the one that adds a sticker with a close up of VAM diagnostics if I am correct.

You have stickered 70 total VAM 9 and 9a combined. Less than 25 percent of the 303 supposedly minted before the reverse die failed.

What has you thinking that there are more than the 303? Just pop report figures? Sorry I am just wondering how you came to this conclusion.

messydesk

Comparative rarity of all 8TF varieties has me putting it in the "7000 +/- σ" category. Keep in mind survivorship over 144 years is not 100%.

Why do you think the reverse die broke after 303 coins?

gumby1234

Thats the story I have heard for over 30 years. I got my coin from Pete Bishal. I think that he was the person that determined the VAM 9 and I think he is pictured in the VAM book holding the presidents VAM 9.

messydesk

Pete was a character, for sure. A bit crazy but knew his errors and 1878 Morgans. He predicted that VAM 9 was the first struck. He and Leroy Van Allen drove from the Cincinnati ANA show to the Hayes museum in Fremont, OH, in Leroy's convertible to see the Hayes coin. It wasn't on display and they had to find all the paperwork that went along with it to confirm it was the first struck. I have a picture of Leroy with the coin around here to go along with the picture of Pete that is in the VAM book. Pete also tried putting together the timetable for when each 8TF VAM was struck, based on capacity, time to change dies, working hours, etc., but I don't think he had the full picture at the time with respect to how many die marriages there were.

LanceNewmanOCC

@messydesk said:

.
was that coin with the mint-stamped inagural wording/date or whatever a 78p or s? do you recall? i thought i remembered something about it saying it was the first or among the first struck. if an S mint, nevermind.

not sure how far you want to go with all of this here, as i know, this all has been discussed at length at least here and vamworld on several occasions previously.

gumby1234

He was definitely DaNutt. But he knew his Morgan dollars. I am thinking your 7000 number is way high. I think if there were that many out there that they would have been found by now with all the VAMmers and dealers. Especially it being so valuable. As far as I know the finest known is a 64PL. Any over XF are extremely hard to find.

Edit I also got a couple of nice errors from him. Not Morgan errors thou.

gumby1234

Another thing that makes me think your number is high is that there was 232k coins delivered on March 16 . That's after 10 more die pairs were put into play. That means 11 die pairs made 232k coins in 5 days minus 60k that were Proof. So I am thinking no more than 3 or 4k were made from each set of dies were made in those first few days.
Edit each day

gumby1234

@LanceNewmanOCC Your thinking of the S mint.

Of the first 12 VAM 9 P minted. 2 were destroyed. 10 remaining were given to special people in numbered envelopes. Those 10 were struck on highly polished blanks. Unfortunately for the number 1 that was given to the president it has been polished over the years.

messydesk

@gumby1234 said:
Another thing that makes me think your number is high is that there was 232k coins delivered on March 16 . That's after 10 more die pairs were put into play. That means 11 die pairs made 232k coins in 5 days minus 60k that were Proof. So I am thinking no more than 3 or 4k were made from each set of dies were made in those first few days.
Edit each day

Among those are many ultra-rarities made with the A1c "Black Widow" reverse. That reverse was used with different obverse dies. Two produced common varieties (VAM 3 and 4), one (VAM 5) is scarce like VAM 9, and seven are rare or ultra-rare (VAMs 14.6, 14.7, 14.11, 14.12, 14.14, 14.17, 14.18).

lilolme

@gumby1234 said:
Another thing that makes me think your number is high is that there was 232k coins delivered on March 16 . That's after 10 more die pairs were put into play. That means 11 die pairs made 232k coins in 5 days minus 60k that were Proof. So I am thinking no more than 3 or 4k were made from each set of dies were made in those first few days.
Edit each day

Interesting reading. A question on the numbers above.
What is the ' minus 60k that were Proof' referring to?
Proof mintage is reported as 500 (8tf) so is this a typo or referring to something else.

gumby1234

@lilolme My bad. There were 100 proofs minted by the 16th.
Edit my eyes aren't what the used to be. They took me to the line below.

Tibor

Met Pete at the New Orleans ANA. Bought four 7/8 TF and a VAM 84, E clash. He didn't have any VAM 9's. The VAM 9 is the only major VAM I never owned.

gumby1234

@Tibor You might have a chance to get one soon. I am considering putting this one up for auction.

Tibor

Thanks for thinking of me. I quit collecting VAM's 30 years ago. I had all of the
7/8 TF, "E" clash dies, 8/7 overdates, 7/6 od. O/CC omm., and small "O" mm from the
later years. I had picked out from the 1st ed. VAM book the tough ones. Bill Fivaz
Dave McGlothlin and others greatly helped with this. @coinlieutenant helped finding
the 4-5 O/CC that I was lacking. Sent them into ANACS for verification and grading. Most
of the VAM's I sold thru private treaty or with Great Collections. I kept the ones that
detailed graded and my special VAM, 1878 V44.

Tibor

.

orgmr

Wow, thanks everyone for the education. I am more of a EAC and JRCS collector but I like the VAM Top 100's and 78 8TF VAMS. Take care!