@derryb said:
the FED is raising the Feds Fund Rate only. This is the rate banks charge each other over night in order to meet minimum cash reserve requirements established by the FED. This rate is irrelevant because banks are awash in cash (thanks to the FED) and currently don't need overnight loans. The only reason retail and consumer rates are going up in tandem is greed on the part of lenders. There is no other reason for these rates to be rising.
The Fed Stopped buying mortgage backed securities about 4 months ago. Major factor. May 4 to June 1 2022
Which is why the Fed does indeed have a fiscal muscle, opposed to only a monetary one.
You want real change in the USA "Join the Convention of States" Article 5 of the Constitution, seeking amendments to stop Washington overreach, trampling of States Rights and Fiscal responsibility.
Rome lost the Republic 27 bce and the Empire 5th century CE infighting between "leaders" and monetary nightmares the primary cause BEGAN the trip down the drain.
25 Ratified amendments are not enough and the Article lying dormant over the last 30 years of non ratification is too long a a wait for the mess the USA finds itself. (Formula 33, 6 not ratified, #18 and 21 offset each other)
Can't believe silver keeps relentlessly dropping. $17? Really?
Anyone else feel the same?
Don't ever tell me that silver is an inflation hedge...it surely is not.
And also don't say that physical is still priced the same, it clearly is not. Premiums are high, but they haven't increased much since April when silver was $26.
I don't understand your frustration. Well, maybe I do - but what did you expect in a heavily-manipulated market? If you are trying to time the silver market, you aren't in it for the right reasons. There will be a time when you will pat yourself on the back for having physical silver when it has value and anything & everything tied to the bond market does not.
That might be soon. It might not be soon. Roll the dice.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
There's a reason silver is kept under lock and key. If it were truely gutter metal one could safely stack it on the front porch. What's Blitzboy's address?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
There's a reason silver is kept under lock and key. If it were truely gutter metal one could safely stack it on the front porch. What's Blitzboy's address?
I'm not sure about your argument here @derryb - seems like you can't leave anything on your front porch anymore! Even front porches aren't safe these days... Several have have been reported stolen over the last few years.
PS: Ask Google. It's a real thing.
according to blitzboy no one would want silver gutter metal, thus the comments about the front porch. LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@cohodk said:
Not much buying enthusiasm here. Hmmmm.
Darn contrarians. Lol
Dang keynesians
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I am very glad I dont have to sell any PM to cover my bills. I never buy anything with money I will need for the next 2-5 years. It would be great to see PM at new highs but even at new highs I wouldnt be a seller. During selloffs I just continue to accumulate. I like gold and silver both so I buy both when I can. The G/S ratio at these highs are hard to ignore. So call me a Gutter Rat cause im a buyer of Silver right now.
Mike
Reality is starting to finally hit Wall St. Last chance for the dip.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
looking at the two major silver futures market vault holdings charted above it does not take a rocket scientist to see that prices of physical silver should be rising. In fact, in a normal cycle of price discovery, price agreed apon (equilibrium) is exemplified in the chart below where supply and demand actually meet at a frozen moment in the marketplace. A lower amount of supply or a higher demand should always result in higher prices in a normally functioning market.
The million dollar question is "why are physical silver prices not accurately determined using supply and demand data?"
The answer lies in the difference between spot price equilibrium and physical price equilibrium. Spot price is based on a product, paper futures contracts, that are unlimited in supply. Spot price is determined in the futures market by primarily bullion bank traders notorious for illegally spoofing prices to temporarily drive them in the direction that provides profits. There are other possible reasons for keeping spot prices low. As demonstrated by legal action taken against these traders, the conspiracy theory is not "do they control price, it is "why do they control prices." There is belief that there are more devious reasons such as aiding the Treasury Department in keeping down the price of the dollar's biggest competitors.
Unfortunately the price for physical silver is based on a corrupted spot price. There is an unlimited supply of the paper contracts used to determine spot price, and its price becomes imaginary, determined simply by bullion traders and not by the natural laws of supply and demand. The spot price, with an added physical silver premium then becomes the physical price. This is clearly demonstrated by the in-step rise and fall of spot and physical prices. Physical prices will vary based on the premiums buyers are willing to pay for particular silver products. American silver eagles are currently at the top of the high premium list.
Buyers of physical precious metals have been "conditioned" for decades that physical price discovery must include the element of spot price as its basis. As long as this fallacy continues physical prices will be controlled regardless of their supply or the demand for them. The futures market has shown us that the laws of supply and demand can be bent.
What will change this?
It is slowly changing right before our eyes as demonstrated by higher premiums, even in the face of falling spot prices. Premiums are determined by the existing laws of supply and demand. Lower supply and higher demand of actual silver cannot be completely hidden. Retail prices are telling us this. It is the corrupt spot price that is
holding down the price of physical silver.
A complete shortage of LBMA and COMEX metal available for delivery will dissolve the mirage. However, both are notorious for settling contracts with cash in order to protect their vault inventories. Note that both hold (store) in the same vaults millions of physical ounces on behalf of precious metal ETS and other parties. A sudden demand for their holdings (that may or may not actually still be in the vault) could "bankrupt" either exchange.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
It is likely that this privately held metal has been leased out or is no longer completely in the vault. If true, at some point the large ETFs will have COMEX over a barrel and can pretty much dictate the cash payout price. So COMEX eventually faces a shortage of cash or a shortage of metal.
The real question is "what will it take" for one or more of these ETFs to suddenly demand their physical metal from the COMEX vaults? It will likely take a sudden sell off of the the ETF(s) who would in turn need to sell their physical. This in itself could explain reduced vault inventories due to recent falling silver spot prices.If holders of most of these ETFs would actually read the fine print of the agreement they would likely remove their metal tomorrow. Also keep in mind that the "spot price setters" cannot let the spot price go so low that it drains the vary vaults that back up their paper promises.
Is all that physical silver actually in the vaults? If not we could see a default of both the COMEX and the ETF(s). Government bailout? Of course.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Considering that a COMEX contract is for 5000 ounces, this seems like a very reasonable premium over spot for small transaction. (2 % the amount of a futures contract)
Maybe the basic premise of many participants on this board — that premiums are unreasonably high — is incorrect.
Considering that a COMEX contract is for 5000 ounces, this seems like a very reasonable premium over spot for small transaction. (2 % the amount of a futures contract)
Maybe the basic premise of many participants on this board — that premiums are unreasonably high — is incorrect.
Not considering that the Silver Eagle program was designed to allow purchases of small quantitites of 1 ounce silver coins at a small markup over spot (I think it was originally 3% to 4%) and it functioned that way without high premiums for at least 20 years.
There's something else that is affecting the physical market for silver, and the premise that premiums are unreasonably high compared to historical norms - is correct.
It's the cause of the high premiums that is subject to debate, not that premiums are unreasonably high - because they are.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
With a few additional words, I agree with that statement.
That is: the premise that premiums on small purchases of silver are high compared to recent norms is correct.
The Mitsubishis of the world can buy all the silver they need for spot plus modest expenses.
Maybe so, but the followup question would be, "how much silver are the Mitsubishis of the world actually buying these days?
If demand is way down, I would expect the price for Mitsubishi to be close to spot. But why have the premiums for smaller fabricated silver discs become historically high? My thought is that the silver supply is tight, in spite of lower industrial demand. If so, expect silver prices to rise along with everything else such as food and energy.
Time will tell what's causing all of this.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
demand for many things is about to cool way down. Money is about to get very tight for those caught up in the expected rise in unemployment the FED is trying to stimulate. Will PM premiums suffer?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb I’m tracking your discussion points on investor and commercial use supply/demand along with supply in the vault vs open interest.
@derryb curious question on the production side that I couldn’t find on the internet. How many mines are producing silver and what is their output? What is the in ground reserve (open and shuttered)? How many mines are shuttered, but would reopen with higher market prices?
@derryb curious question on the production side that I couldn’t find on the internet. How many mines are producing silver and what is their output? What is the in ground reserve (open and shuttered)? How many mines are shuttered, but would reopen with higher market prices?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
There's a reason silver is kept under lock and key. If it were truely gutter metal one could safely stack it on the front porch. What's Blitzboy's address?
I'm not sure about your argument here @derryb - seems like you can't leave anything on your front porch anymore! Even front porches aren't safe these days... Several have have been reported stolen over the last few years.
PS: Ask Google. It's a real thing.
Depends, I mean I live in a nice new development here in South Carolina; my story not funny not interesting REDACTED
@TwoSides2aCoin said:
It is low in the season firewood, coal and fuel is high. Oh the coming winter....
Doom and gloom are not on the horizon. They're in the midst.
Stack wood.
Wood...check. I probably have another 20 mature oaks up in the wood that have naturally fell, just waiting to be cut and split. Waiting for cooler temperatures to perform the labour. RGDS!
you might wanna turn some of the lumber into a new shed.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
you might wanna turn some of the lumber into a new shed.
Thats one of many existing structures that was already here when we bought the property. We don't even use it at present time, thinking about dozing it actually. BTW that particular outbuilding has been standing since the 1950's. RGDS!
P.S. You may want to turn some of those gutter trinkets you collect for something you can actually USE. Good luck brother!
The price of silver falling to under $18 briefly when you can't buy it for anywhere near that price in anything but large bars suggests a problem. And that problem is lack of availability. It all suggests that the real physical price for coins, quality rounds, and small bars is actually in the mid-20's not $18-19 / oz. All expected downside though with the current 25 month correction. Simple charting would have pointed this all out 2 years ago. Following a 56 month rally from 2016 to 2020 a long correction was needed....and similar to the 25 month consolidation put it from 2011-2013 (ie the left shoulder of the 11 year chart). Once the corrective bounce back B leg ended in March 2022....it was time for the brutal C wave down. And it's more than coincidence that the bear market down from 2011-2015 took 54 months....while the rise lasted 56 months.....a Fib 55 months average. And here we are at a 50% time retrace at 25/26 months of the last rise. While gold and silver have met a lot requirements to end this correction....they still can be dragged down further by all the other larger financial markets as they try to figure out bottoms and tops (USD, interest rates, SM, commodities, currencies, etc.). Oh, and the US Dollar has not beaten every other currency in the world in 2022. The Russian Ruble has out-done the dollar by quite a bit since March 2022.
And there's no guarantee that PM's have been in a bull market since 2016...that's another discussion. Gold had unfinished business under $1680 which only showed up this past month. Whether it goes to $1550 or $1444 remains to be seen. But those are legitimate targets. Silver will follow gold. Though currently gold has been dropping faster than silver (lowering GSR). Regardless of how far silver falls on the futures or world spot charts....good luck in finding it without the huge premiums.
I like to follow Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model (ECM) as it has been pretty accurate calling the major turns in gold (and by inference silver) since 1999. And most accurate have been the 8.6 ECM dips that have resulted in gold peaks....ie the peaks in 2011 and 2020 were almost dead on....and called decades out. The next 8.6 year PMs peak is due in 2028. So I think PM's will generally be rising these next 6 years - though in typical whip saw pattern. And now the next 6 yrs has to compete with a 3-5 yr War Cycle and World Depression/Recession with raw material and food/energy shortages, supply chain disruptions. Fun times heading into 2028. On top of that is the final Stocks and Real Estate market long term bottoms due in the 2028-2033 windows. A lot to chew on when it comes to "predicting" PM prices.
The 2028 ECM bottom should result in a PM's euphoria year much like the peaks into 2011 and 2020.
Turn dates in the 935th wave of the ECM are as follows in years and fractions of years. Note that all 940 waves of 8.6 yrs are on the ECM web pages for review.
From that I take March 2023 as a High....April 2024 a Low,...May 2025 High....June 2026 Low.....Feb 2027 Low...June 2027 High....June 2028 High.
The important thing to note is as the next turning point approaches you can generally determine whether a rise or dip is in the works. If you go back and look at the 934th wave from 2011-2020....the numbers are pretty accurate. The turns in 2011, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 were nailed. I was confident a year in advance that the Sept 2015 turning point in the last 8.6 cycle was going to be the final washout....and that 2020 would be the next strong peak. If those points repeat....I'd expect a strong dip into March 2024......and then heading back up into a wave 5 peak in 2028. Filling in the blanks. I'd expect gold to head back up into March 2023....and then back down to April 2024. Silver will tend to mirror these moves.
But first gold has to finish this 2022 C leg correction to get a better handle on how the future 1.075/2.15 yr turning points tend to align. The half way points in the 8.6 yr cycle (ie 4.3 yrs) seem to be the more important points along the way. Hence April 2024 and June 2028 as the next major pair. The last two 8,6 yr cycles worked very well. No reason to think this current one will be any different. Dates are not meant to be exact. And the model is geared towards the business cycle....not so much the stock market and PM cycles that are somewhat close to the business confidence cycle. Stocks and PMs can lag or lead at times. But about half the time the model seems to nail the turns within 0-3 months.
So far 2022 has mirrored 2008 in many ways. The cycling of PM and Stock prices reminds me a lot of the whipsaws all throughout 2008. PM's bottomed in October after huge swings each prior month. Oil bottomed in December. Stocks bottomed in March. Financial crisis worsened from October-March. The dollar soared from March to November paying off "winning" banker's bets around the world...finally peaking in March 2009. Wonder if that's how this one wraps up?
Hmm. . lack of availability? Like in low supply or high demand? Hmm. . .
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@roadrunner said:
The price of silver falling to under $18 briefly when you can't buy it for anywhere near that price in anything but large bars suggests a problem. And that problem is lack of availability.
>
Well, yes.
But note that the lack of availability in silver products is mostly due to the fact that people who have these items are not selling. If nobody sells to coin shops, then the shops won't have inventory.
@roadrunner said:
The price of silver falling to under $18 briefly when you can't buy it for anywhere near that price in anything but large bars suggests a problem. And that problem is lack of availability.
>
Well, yes.
But note that the lack of availability in silver products is mostly due to the fact that people who have these items are not selling. If nobody sells to coin shops, then the shops won't have inventory.
Holders are not selling, because chances are, they are "underwater." Economics condition will chance that.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
@derryb said:
Hmm. . lack of availability? Like in low supply or high demand? Hmm. . .
Hmmm. If that was the case, silver would be booming up and not having lateral or down movements
seems ti be the case with free market decided premiums on the real stuff. Hmm. . . not so much the case in the paper market. Just another sign of price manipulation.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
Hmm. . lack of availability? Like in low supply or high demand? Hmm. . .
Hmmm. If that was the case, silver would be booming up and not having lateral or down movements
There is no such thing as low supply in the paper market...
Agree, but demand and speculation drives the "paper market" and it's not there either.
Oh, rest assured it is there. Problem is it is, as usual, fighting the bid for the physical trade.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Premiums go up, premiums go down just like the always have. There is certainly no shortage of gutter, most miners aren't even looking for the garbage. Just a byproduct of copper mining. RGDS!
Comments
The Fed Stopped buying mortgage backed securities about 4 months ago. Major factor. May 4 to June 1 2022
Which is why the Fed does indeed have a fiscal muscle, opposed to only a monetary one.
You want real change in the USA "Join the Convention of States" Article 5 of the Constitution, seeking amendments to stop Washington overreach, trampling of States Rights and Fiscal responsibility.
Rome lost the Republic 27 bce and the Empire 5th century CE infighting between "leaders" and monetary nightmares the primary cause BEGAN the trip down the drain.
25 Ratified amendments are not enough and the Article lying dormant over the last 30 years of non ratification is too long a a wait for the mess the USA finds itself. (Formula 33, 6 not ratified, #18 and 21 offset each other)
Can't believe silver keeps relentlessly dropping. $17? Really?
Anyone else feel the same?
Don't ever tell me that silver is an inflation hedge...it surely is not.
And also don't say that physical is still priced the same, it clearly is not. Premiums are high, but they haven't increased much since April when silver was $26.
I don't understand your frustration. Well, maybe I do - but what did you expect in a heavily-manipulated market? If you are trying to time the silver market, you aren't in it for the right reasons. There will be a time when you will pat yourself on the back for having physical silver when it has value and anything & everything tied to the bond market does not.
That might be soon. It might not be soon. Roll the dice.
I knew it would happen.
There's a reason silver is kept under lock and key. If it were truely gutter metal one could safely stack it on the front porch. What's Blitzboy's address?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
according to blitzboy no one would want silver gutter metal, thus the comments about the front porch. LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Looks like a buy to me
So is gold at these levels
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Golds a buy any and every day, the gutter not so much. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Nice call Bidask
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Darn contrarians. Lol
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Dang keynesians
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
it wasnt't actually 17....it was like 17.90 when I posted, so maybe 9% higher now...:)
I am very glad I dont have to sell any PM to cover my bills. I never buy anything with money I will need for the next 2-5 years. It would be great to see PM at new highs but even at new highs I wouldnt be a seller. During selloffs I just continue to accumulate. I like gold and silver both so I buy both when I can. The G/S ratio at these highs are hard to ignore. So call me a Gutter Rat cause im a buyer of Silver right now.
Mike
MIKE B.
Reality is starting to finally hit Wall St. Last chance for the dip.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
holding. Selling a bit here and there, but largely holding
LBMA and COMEX vaults continue to bleed silver
LBMA inventory:
COMEX inventory:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
.
I recently went the 'asheland' route and converted a bunch of DCarr silver bullion and overstrikes bought several years ago into this...
...basically, trading a set of fantasy coins for a real fantasy coin.
edtd4spllg
fka renman95, Sep 2005, 7,000 posts
@derryb — based on your chart, are you willing to make a rough prediction, e.g., there will be a COMEX crisis within about a year?
looking at the two major silver futures market vault holdings charted above it does not take a rocket scientist to see that prices of physical silver should be rising. In fact, in a normal cycle of price discovery, price agreed apon (equilibrium) is exemplified in the chart below where supply and demand actually meet at a frozen moment in the marketplace. A lower amount of supply or a higher demand should always result in higher prices in a normally functioning market.
The million dollar question is "why are physical silver prices not accurately determined using supply and demand data?"
The answer lies in the difference between spot price equilibrium and physical price equilibrium. Spot price is based on a product, paper futures contracts, that are unlimited in supply. Spot price is determined in the futures market by primarily bullion bank traders notorious for illegally spoofing prices to temporarily drive them in the direction that provides profits. There are other possible reasons for keeping spot prices low. As demonstrated by legal action taken against these traders, the conspiracy theory is not "do they control price, it is "why do they control prices." There is belief that there are more devious reasons such as aiding the Treasury Department in keeping down the price of the dollar's biggest competitors.
Unfortunately the price for physical silver is based on a corrupted spot price. There is an unlimited supply of the paper contracts used to determine spot price, and its price becomes imaginary, determined simply by bullion traders and not by the natural laws of supply and demand. The spot price, with an added physical silver premium then becomes the physical price. This is clearly demonstrated by the in-step rise and fall of spot and physical prices. Physical prices will vary based on the premiums buyers are willing to pay for particular silver products. American silver eagles are currently at the top of the high premium list.
Buyers of physical precious metals have been "conditioned" for decades that physical price discovery must include the element of spot price as its basis. As long as this fallacy continues physical prices will be controlled regardless of their supply or the demand for them. The futures market has shown us that the laws of supply and demand can be bent.
What will change this?
It is slowly changing right before our eyes as demonstrated by higher premiums, even in the face of falling spot prices. Premiums are determined by the existing laws of supply and demand. Lower supply and higher demand of actual silver cannot be completely hidden. Retail prices are telling us this. It is the corrupt spot price that is
holding down the price of physical silver.
A complete shortage of LBMA and COMEX metal available for delivery will dissolve the mirage. However, both are notorious for settling contracts with cash in order to protect their vault inventories. Note that both hold (store) in the same vaults millions of physical ounces on behalf of precious metal ETS and other parties. A sudden demand for their holdings (that may or may not actually still be in the vault) could "bankrupt" either exchange.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
The COMEX crisis (timeline unknown) will come from a very large and sudden physical demand from the COMEX vaults, such as an ETF who stores their metal in COMEX/LBMA vaults, that will wipe out vault inventory. A whopping 63% of the silver bars held in LBMA vaults is owned by these ETFs.
It is likely that this privately held metal has been leased out or is no longer completely in the vault. If true, at some point the large ETFs will have COMEX over a barrel and can pretty much dictate the cash payout price. So COMEX eventually faces a shortage of cash or a shortage of metal.
The real question is "what will it take" for one or more of these ETFs to suddenly demand their physical metal from the COMEX vaults? It will likely take a sudden sell off of the the ETF(s) who would in turn need to sell their physical. This in itself could explain reduced vault inventories due to recent falling silver spot prices.If holders of most of these ETFs would actually read the fine print of the agreement they would likely remove their metal tomorrow. Also keep in mind that the "spot price setters" cannot let the spot price go so low that it drains the vary vaults that back up their paper promises.
Is all that physical silver actually in the vaults? If not we could see a default of both the COMEX and the ETF(s). Government bailout? Of course.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I like that Hershey's can. Reminds me of grandmother's pantry when I was a kid and having to pry the lid off with a table spoon.
Pocket Change Inspector
Last week I bought a 100 oz bar from Walmart which was delivered by APMEX for $2110. I plan on holding it. We'll see how it goes.
Considering that a COMEX contract is for 5000 ounces, this seems like a very reasonable premium over spot for small transaction. (2 % the amount of a futures contract)
Maybe the basic premise of many participants on this board — that premiums are unreasonably high — is incorrect.
Up about 10% in the 2.5 weeks since the original post.
asheland approves!
Awesome pick up!!!
My YouTube Channel
Considering that a COMEX contract is for 5000 ounces, this seems like a very reasonable premium over spot for small transaction. (2 % the amount of a futures contract)
Maybe the basic premise of many participants on this board — that premiums are unreasonably high — is incorrect.
Not considering that the Silver Eagle program was designed to allow purchases of small quantitites of 1 ounce silver coins at a small markup over spot (I think it was originally 3% to 4%) and it functioned that way without high premiums for at least 20 years.
There's something else that is affecting the physical market for silver, and the premise that premiums are unreasonably high compared to historical norms - is correct.
It's the cause of the high premiums that is subject to debate, not that premiums are unreasonably high - because they are.
I knew it would happen.
@jmski52 said: "the premise that premiums are unreasonably high compared to historical norms - is correct."
With a few additional words, I agree with that statement.
That is: the premise that premiums on small purchases of silver are high compared to recent norms is correct.
The Mitsubishis of the world can buy all the silver they need for spot plus modest expenses.
With a few additional words, I agree with that statement.
That is: the premise that premiums on small purchases of silver are high compared to recent norms is correct.
The Mitsubishis of the world can buy all the silver they need for spot plus modest expenses.
Maybe so, but the followup question would be, "how much silver are the Mitsubishis of the world actually buying these days?
If demand is way down, I would expect the price for Mitsubishi to be close to spot. But why have the premiums for smaller fabricated silver discs become historically high? My thought is that the silver supply is tight, in spite of lower industrial demand. If so, expect silver prices to rise along with everything else such as food and energy.
Time will tell what's causing all of this.
I knew it would happen.
demand for many things is about to cool way down. Money is about to get very tight for those caught up in the expected rise in unemployment the FED is trying to stimulate. Will PM premiums suffer?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Back to 17s lol 😞
@derryb I’m tracking your discussion points on investor and commercial use supply/demand along with supply in the vault vs open interest.
@derryb curious question on the production side that I couldn’t find on the internet. How many mines are producing silver and what is their output? What is the in ground reserve (open and shuttered)? How many mines are shuttered, but would reopen with higher market prices?
Silver supply and demand.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
It is low in the season firewood, coal and fuel is high. Oh the coming winter....
Doom and gloom are not on the horizon. They're in the midst.
Stack wood.
Depends, I mean I live in a nice new development here in South Carolina; my story not funny not interesting REDACTED
Wood...check. I probably have another 20 mature oaks up in the wood that have naturally fell, just waiting to be cut and split. Waiting for cooler temperatures to perform the labour. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
you might wanna turn some of the lumber into a new shed.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Thats one of many existing structures that was already here when we bought the property. We don't even use it at present time, thinking about dozing it actually. BTW that particular outbuilding has been standing since the 1950's. RGDS!
P.S. You may want to turn some of those gutter trinkets you collect for something you can actually USE. Good luck brother!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
The price of silver falling to under $18 briefly when you can't buy it for anywhere near that price in anything but large bars suggests a problem. And that problem is lack of availability. It all suggests that the real physical price for coins, quality rounds, and small bars is actually in the mid-20's not $18-19 / oz. All expected downside though with the current 25 month correction. Simple charting would have pointed this all out 2 years ago. Following a 56 month rally from 2016 to 2020 a long correction was needed....and similar to the 25 month consolidation put it from 2011-2013 (ie the left shoulder of the 11 year chart). Once the corrective bounce back B leg ended in March 2022....it was time for the brutal C wave down. And it's more than coincidence that the bear market down from 2011-2015 took 54 months....while the rise lasted 56 months.....a Fib 55 months average. And here we are at a 50% time retrace at 25/26 months of the last rise. While gold and silver have met a lot requirements to end this correction....they still can be dragged down further by all the other larger financial markets as they try to figure out bottoms and tops (USD, interest rates, SM, commodities, currencies, etc.). Oh, and the US Dollar has not beaten every other currency in the world in 2022. The Russian Ruble has out-done the dollar by quite a bit since March 2022.
And there's no guarantee that PM's have been in a bull market since 2016...that's another discussion. Gold had unfinished business under $1680 which only showed up this past month. Whether it goes to $1550 or $1444 remains to be seen. But those are legitimate targets. Silver will follow gold. Though currently gold has been dropping faster than silver (lowering GSR). Regardless of how far silver falls on the futures or world spot charts....good luck in finding it without the huge premiums.
I like to follow Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model (ECM) as it has been pretty accurate calling the major turns in gold (and by inference silver) since 1999. And most accurate have been the 8.6 ECM dips that have resulted in gold peaks....ie the peaks in 2011 and 2020 were almost dead on....and called decades out. The next 8.6 year PMs peak is due in 2028. So I think PM's will generally be rising these next 6 years - though in typical whip saw pattern. And now the next 6 yrs has to compete with a 3-5 yr War Cycle and World Depression/Recession with raw material and food/energy shortages, supply chain disruptions. Fun times heading into 2028. On top of that is the final Stocks and Real Estate market long term bottoms due in the 2028-2033 windows. A lot to chew on when it comes to "predicting" PM prices.
The 2028 ECM bottom should result in a PM's euphoria year much like the peaks into 2011 and 2020.
Turn dates in the 935th wave of the ECM are as follows in years and fractions of years. Note that all 940 waves of 8.6 yrs are on the ECM web pages for review.
WAVE #935: 2020.05 2022.2 2023.275 2024.35 2025.425 2026.5 2027.129 2027.495 2028.65
From that I take March 2023 as a High....April 2024 a Low,...May 2025 High....June 2026 Low.....Feb 2027 Low...June 2027 High....June 2028 High.
The important thing to note is as the next turning point approaches you can generally determine whether a rise or dip is in the works. If you go back and look at the 934th wave from 2011-2020....the numbers are pretty accurate. The turns in 2011, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 were nailed. I was confident a year in advance that the Sept 2015 turning point in the last 8.6 cycle was going to be the final washout....and that 2020 would be the next strong peak. If those points repeat....I'd expect a strong dip into March 2024......and then heading back up into a wave 5 peak in 2028. Filling in the blanks. I'd expect gold to head back up into March 2023....and then back down to April 2024. Silver will tend to mirror these moves.
But first gold has to finish this 2022 C leg correction to get a better handle on how the future 1.075/2.15 yr turning points tend to align. The half way points in the 8.6 yr cycle (ie 4.3 yrs) seem to be the more important points along the way. Hence April 2024 and June 2028 as the next major pair. The last two 8,6 yr cycles worked very well. No reason to think this current one will be any different. Dates are not meant to be exact. And the model is geared towards the business cycle....not so much the stock market and PM cycles that are somewhat close to the business confidence cycle. Stocks and PMs can lag or lead at times. But about half the time the model seems to nail the turns within 0-3 months.
So far 2022 has mirrored 2008 in many ways. The cycling of PM and Stock prices reminds me a lot of the whipsaws all throughout 2008. PM's bottomed in October after huge swings each prior month. Oil bottomed in December. Stocks bottomed in March. Financial crisis worsened from October-March. The dollar soared from March to November paying off "winning" banker's bets around the world...finally peaking in March 2009. Wonder if that's how this one wraps up?
https://armstrongeconomics.com/models/
Hmm. . lack of availability? Like in low supply or high demand? Hmm. . .
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
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Well, yes.
But note that the lack of availability in silver products is mostly due to the fact that people who have these items are not selling. If nobody sells to coin shops, then the shops won't have inventory.
Hmmm. If that was the case, silver would be booming up and not having lateral or down movements
There is no such thing as low supply in the paper market...
Agree, but demand and speculation drives the "paper market" and it's not there either.
Holders are not selling, because chances are, they are "underwater." Economics condition will chance that.
seems ti be the case with free market decided premiums on the real stuff. Hmm. . . not so much the case in the paper market. Just another sign of price manipulation.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Oh, rest assured it is there. Problem is it is, as usual, fighting the bid for the physical trade.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I'm not resting....Is that your assumption? Or do you have RELIABLE data that substantiates your theory?
Premiums go up, premiums go down just like the always have. There is certainly no shortage of gutter, most miners aren't even looking for the garbage. Just a byproduct of copper mining. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.