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Is it me or are the ANA auctions kinda…meh

BoosibriBoosibri Posts: 11,200 ✭✭✭✭✭

Nothing really interesting in there for me. A few I’ll bid on but nothing…exciting.

Comments

  • pruebaspruebas Posts: 3,500 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 29, 2022 7:58PM

    That’s what happens when your collecting interests are too narrow or too strict.

    Either start a new collecting theme (maybe something inexpensive to collect casually between major purchases?) or relax your standards a bit.

    Maybe all the “good stuff” not in tight hands has already been sold in this upmarket cycle?

  • Bob13Bob13 Posts: 1,160 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Stacks has a lotta lotta wildmen talers. I’m pretty excited.

    Spent some time today trying to narrow down what to focus on.

    My current "Box of 20"

  • goldengolden Posts: 8,047 ✭✭✭✭✭

    My list of coins to look at in the ANA auctions is the largest I have ever had.

  • KingOfMorganDollarKingOfMorganDollar Posts: 2,396 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 30, 2022 3:27PM

    I am happy if I can add 2-3 new coins per year to my collection. Even at 2 I would be content. Just find other things to keep busy with and time goes by fast. My last purchase was 4 months ago and I doubt I will buy anything new till early 2023. That is OK with me and when I do add a coin I am very happy.

    As far as grades I am not picky as long as the coins presents well I am more than OK with that.

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,138 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Boosibri said:

    Nothing really interesting in there for me. A few I’ll bid on but nothing…exciting.

    Same for me

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • BoosibriBoosibri Posts: 11,200 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 31, 2022 9:32AM

    @pruebas said:
    That’s what happens when your collecting interests are too narrow or too strict.

    Either start a new collecting theme (maybe something inexpensive to collect casually between major purchases?) or relax your standards a bit.

    Maybe all the “good stuff” not in tight hands has already been sold in this upmarket cycle?

    I started doing Irish moderns for fun to keep me going in between major purchases. I can’t relax my standards so maybe time to start collecting Morgan’s. Maybe 1881-S’s by VAM?
    Edited to: MS63, blast white, NGC only.

  • pruebaspruebas Posts: 3,500 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Boosibri said:

    @pruebas said:
    That’s what happens when your collecting interests are too narrow or too strict.

    Either start a new collecting theme (maybe something inexpensive to collect casually between major purchases?) or relax your standards a bit.

    Maybe all the “good stuff” not in tight hands has already been sold in this upmarket cycle?

    I started doing Irish moderns for fun to keep me going in between major purchases. I can’t relax my standards so maybe time to start collecting Morgan’s. Maybe 1881-S’s by VAM?
    Edited to: MS63, blast white, NGC only.

    I totally don’t blame you for not relaxing your standards.

    If you can’t get Irish or Latin American, maybe you need to start another theme? Or just save and hold on for a double buy in NYINC?

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,138 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pruebas said:

    @Boosibri said:

    @pruebas said:
    That’s what happens when your collecting interests are too narrow or too strict.

    Either start a new collecting theme (maybe something inexpensive to collect casually between major purchases?) or relax your standards a bit.

    Maybe all the “good stuff” not in tight hands has already been sold in this upmarket cycle?

    I started doing Irish moderns for fun to keep me going in between major purchases. I can’t relax my standards so maybe time to start collecting Morgan’s. Maybe 1881-S’s by VAM?
    Edited to: MS63, blast white, NGC only.

    I totally don’t blame you for not relaxing your standards.

    If you can’t get Irish or Latin American, maybe you need to start another theme? Or just save and hold on for a double buy in NYINC?

    I don’t have any standards
    I’m a addict

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,138 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Seriously i have a bunch of Israel medals and coins

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • neildrobertsonneildrobertson Posts: 942 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Bob13 said:
    Stacks has a lotta lotta wildmen talers. I’m pretty excited.

    Spent some time today trying to narrow down what to focus on.

    That is a very impressive collection they're selling. It was very cool to look through. It would be great to go to an auction viewing.

  • ZoharZohar Posts: 6,588 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • BoosibriBoosibri Posts: 11,200 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pruebas said:

    @Boosibri said:

    @pruebas said:
    That’s what happens when your collecting interests are too narrow or too strict.

    Either start a new collecting theme (maybe something inexpensive to collect casually between major purchases?) or relax your standards a bit.

    Maybe all the “good stuff” not in tight hands has already been sold in this upmarket cycle?

    I started doing Irish moderns for fun to keep me going in between major purchases. I can’t relax my standards so maybe time to start collecting Morgan’s. Maybe 1881-S’s by VAM?
    Edited to: MS63, blast white, NGC only.

    I totally don’t blame you for not relaxing your standards.

    If you can’t get Irish or Latin American, maybe you need to start another theme? Or just save and hold on for a double buy in NYINC?

    I do think what you note about all of the major coins that would be flushed out during this market cycle have already come to market is an interesting, and likely point

  • neildrobertsonneildrobertson Posts: 942 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I do think what you note about all of the major coins that would be flushed out during this market cycle have already come to market is an interesting, and likely point

    Have you seen an outpouring of quality material during this market cycle? I feel like I've seen more junk purged to take advantage of a dearth of quality material. I'm still waiting for the broad based quality to return to what I was seeing pre-Covid.

  • coinkatcoinkat Posts: 21,307 ✭✭✭✭✭

    In an effort to extend the dialog... here are questions for each of us to contemplate:

    How have your standards evolved over the time?

    Are there components to your standards that can be compromised based on rarity, surviving population or quality issues of the time of mintage?

    And of course... there are always Morgans to discuss... especially those that resemble this

    Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.

  • neildrobertsonneildrobertson Posts: 942 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 1, 2022 3:05PM

    @coinkat said:
    In an effort to extend the dialog... here are questions for each of us to contemplate:

    How have your standards evolved over the time?

    Are there components to your standards that can be compromised based on rarity, surviving population or quality issues of the time of mintage?

    I'm a completionist at heart and will adjust my standards based on what's available. I believe that "complete" lower quality collection is superior to an incomplete high quality collection.

    My awareness of what's out there and what's typical has become more informed over time. My perception of what is considered rare has gotten more strict. I now consider a set that can be built in 3 years very doable. But I've heard a lot of conversations where the inability to build a set in a year would make it exceedingly difficult/rare.

    I don't need my collection to be an art exhibit. I could just buy art if I wanted that. This could be why I've been started dabbling in medieval coins, as they are not as conventionally attractive as more modern stuff.

    Over time I've become less tolerant of minting defects. I want my coins made well when i can. I don't prefer die cracks. I don't prefer misshapen planchets. I don't prefer coins off-center. I don't prefer late die states. I don't prefer overdates or double struck coins. And I almost never have the opportunity to act upon these desires. For me to do that I would need to have multiple coins to choose from at a given time. I tend to take what I can get and hope to upgrade later.

  • pruebaspruebas Posts: 3,500 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Let me add that for the most part, rare coin prices appear to have plateaued and might even be declining from here. With all the Fed rate increases that have happened or are pre-baked into the market, PMs and tangible assets are losing some luster. Consignors that are paying attention (ie. not estates or foundations selling for other reasons) are noticing this and have decreased their selling activity. We are starting to see this in the quality at the bigger auctions. JMHO.

  • BoosibriBoosibri Posts: 11,200 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @neildrobertson said:

    I do think what you note about all of the major coins that would be flushed out during this market cycle have already come to market is an interesting, and likely point

    Have you seen an outpouring of quality material during this market cycle? I feel like I've seen more junk purged to take advantage of a dearth of quality material. I'm still waiting for the broad based quality to return to what I was seeing pre-Covid.

    I think that Cape Coral for one was a magnificent collection from a living consignor who built his collection with the right sense of quality at the right time and sold at the right time.

    Paramount was very strong in some areas.

    The Pat Johnston collection, especially the NYINC sale was very strong though the motivation was probably partially driven by the market and partially the heirs other motivations.

  • neildrobertsonneildrobertson Posts: 942 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Boosibri said:

    @neildrobertson said:

    I do think what you note about all of the major coins that would be flushed out during this market cycle have already come to market is an interesting, and likely point

    Have you seen an outpouring of quality material during this market cycle? I feel like I've seen more junk purged to take advantage of a dearth of quality material. I'm still waiting for the broad based quality to return to what I was seeing pre-Covid.

    I think that Cape Coral for one was a magnificent collection from a living consignor who built his collection with the right sense of quality at the right time and sold at the right time.

    Paramount was very strong in some areas.

    The Pat Johnston collection, especially the NYINC sale was very strong though the motivation was probably partially driven by the market and partially the heirs other motivations.

    We're going back 3 years for the Cape Coral collection. That feels like a "normal" amount of nice collections being sold during that time frame. Maybe even a little below average.

  • RexfordRexford Posts: 899 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2, 2022 5:36PM

    @neildrobertson said:

    @Boosibri said:

    @neildrobertson said:

    I do think what you note about all of the major coins that would be flushed out during this market cycle have already come to market is an interesting, and likely point

    Have you seen an outpouring of quality material during this market cycle? I feel like I've seen more junk purged to take advantage of a dearth of quality material. I'm still waiting for the broad based quality to return to what I was seeing pre-Covid.

    I think that Cape Coral for one was a magnificent collection from a living consignor who built his collection with the right sense of quality at the right time and sold at the right time.

    Paramount was very strong in some areas.

    The Pat Johnston collection, especially the NYINC sale was very strong though the motivation was probably partially driven by the market and partially the heirs other motivations.

    We're going back 3 years for the Cape Coral collection. That feels like a "normal" amount of nice collections being sold during that time frame. Maybe even a little below average.

    Cape Coral is an ongoing sale. The next section (German States) is in the upcoming ANA sale.

    There have also been the Pinnacle Collection, another collection of Chinese coins that sold in Champion Auctions (can’t remember the name), the recent collection of British Proofs in the Noble sale, and plenty of European auction houses (Kuenker, MDC, Spink, etc) have featured very nice high-end material. Overall there have been many, many top-dollar coins coming out of the woodwork that were not before the pandemic when the market was not as active and prices were not so high. Things are starting to settle now with recession concerns and summer is the slow season anyway, but over the past two years there have been buying opportunities that were not available for years or even decades before. I actually was seeing a dearth of nice material and pretty dismal prices in 2018-2019 overall, just before the pandemic hit.

  • RexfordRexford Posts: 899 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I haven’t seen anything in the ANA sales that really interests me, for the record. I think the era of nice material is starting to slow as the market settles.

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,138 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pruebas said:
    Let me add that for the most part, rare coin prices appear to have plateaued and might even be declining from here. With all the Fed rate increases that have happened or are pre-baked into the market, PMs and tangible assets are losing some luster. Consignors that are paying attention (ie. not estates or foundations selling for other reasons) are noticing this and have decreased their selling activity. We are starting to see this in the quality at the bigger auctions. JMHO.

    I think I finally agree with you .....wowee !

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • AbueloAbuelo Posts: 1,601 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Boosibri Morgans? You must see a doctor...

  • neildrobertsonneildrobertson Posts: 942 ✭✭✭✭✭

    What proportion of high quality material is hitting the market for discretionary reasons? I imagine a lot of sales are for reasons other than trying to maximize value and take advantage of pricing trends. A decent number of banner sales are driven by other factors.

  • BoosibriBoosibri Posts: 11,200 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @neildrobertson said:
    What proportion of high quality material is hitting the market for discretionary reasons? I imagine a lot of sales are for reasons other than trying to maximize value and take advantage of pricing trends. A decent number of banner sales are driven by other factors.

    Like divorce or death?

  • neildrobertsonneildrobertson Posts: 942 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Boosibri said:

    @neildrobertson said:
    What proportion of high quality material is hitting the market for discretionary reasons? I imagine a lot of sales are for reasons other than trying to maximize value and take advantage of pricing trends. A decent number of banner sales are driven by other factors.

    Like divorce or death?

    Those are examples. Take retirement for example. People will often retire when the time "feels right" regardless of the state of the economy. However, there are some percentage of people that will delay retirement until conditions are better.

    The majority of the coins I have sold have been because I wanted to move onto something new in my collection, which was driven by changes in my own personal taste. They weren't driven by macroeconomic forces.

  • coinkatcoinkat Posts: 21,307 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I thought more folks here would appreciate a fine British mid 60s sportscar. I was looking for an earlier Morgan to post and came up empty.

    So back to the questions...

    Seems reasonable that most collectors will have standards that are a working in progress highly influenced by what is available for a collected series. It also stands to reason that within any series some dates/mints are a better end product than others- not all will have the same issues that may influence the decision in buying the right coin. What I find interesting is that the graded population of certain series and dates within the series may not always reflect what you have thought as to the surviving population at various grade levels. As an example, last time I checked, our host has not graded a single MS George I half crown. And moving forward into the 20th century, our host has graded 1 1908 Florin.

    So at what point... if at all... does one buy a coin that may not be up to their standards, but still represents quality for the grade?

    Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.

  • BoosibriBoosibri Posts: 11,200 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @neildrobertson said:

    @Boosibri said:

    @neildrobertson said:
    What proportion of high quality material is hitting the market for discretionary reasons? I imagine a lot of sales are for reasons other than trying to maximize value and take advantage of pricing trends. A decent number of banner sales are driven by other factors.

    Like divorce or death?

    Those are examples. Take retirement for example. People will often retire when the time "feels right" regardless of the state of the economy. However, there are some percentage of people that will delay retirement until conditions are better.

    The majority of the coins I have sold have been because I wanted to move onto something new in my collection, which was driven by changes in my own personal taste. They weren't driven by macroeconomic forces.

    With all respect, I have no idea what your position actually is on this topic.

  • neildrobertsonneildrobertson Posts: 942 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Boosibri said:
    With all respect, I have no idea what your position actually is on this topic.

    I don't really have a strong position. I don't really have enough information to have one. Sometimes we talk about demand (and supply) elasticity in economic discussions, and I was thinking through how elastic they are. And by that I mean: How dependent is the flow/transfer of coins in the market dependent on whether prices are rising or falling (or how quickly)?

    If we look at the the oil market and how tight the supply/demand balance is, it takes very little oversupply to significantly impact prices. That is a fairly efficient commodity market with lots of transactions. In the case of something like oil, demand is relatively inelastic. It requires substantial decreases in prices to drive additional demand. It probably requires less of an increase to reduce supply (so it's not symmetrical in that regard).

    My impressions on the coin market is that it's fairly inefficient and not very tight on supply/demand on a broad scale. We see significant price increases on individual coins that are in demand, but I think that averages out when you look at everything on a larger scale. Price changes tend to take months when you see price changes in minutes or hours on commodities. I observed a gradual decline in coin prices in the years leading up to the Covid crisis. Was that gradual decline the result of a fairly balanced supply/demand equation with a minor edge to supply? Or was the imbalance larger and the pricing mechanics were slow to react? I don't know. I do know that if gold spot drops by $300/oz, I can't go to a dealer and buy a gold coin for that much less the next week. It tends to take weeks or months for dealers (and buyers) do adjust to that lower pricing level.

  • amwldcoinamwldcoin Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coinkat said:
    I thought more folks here would appreciate a fine British mid 60s sportscar. I was looking for an earlier Morgan to post and came up empty.

    So back to the questions...

    Seems reasonable that most collectors will have standards that are a working in progress highly influenced by what is available for a collected series. It also stands to reason that within any series some dates/mints are a better end product than others- not all will have the same issues that may influence the decision in buying the right coin. What I find interesting is that the graded population of certain series and dates within the series may not always reflect what you have thought as to the surviving population at various grade levels. As an example, last time I checked, our host has not graded a single MS George I half crown. And moving forward into the 20th century, our host has graded 1 1908 Florin.

    So at what point... if at all... does one buy a coin that may not be up to their standards, but still represents quality for the grade?

    I think I'm a good example of what you are talking about with regards to elasticity. I recently started a set which is very tough to complete with the parameters I set. Didn't take me long to realize I would be bored and impatient if I didn't bend a little. So now when I find a lower grade coin and I feel it will be easy to move along after I upgrade it I buy it!

  • coinkatcoinkat Posts: 21,307 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @amwldcoin

    I have followed your progress on your SLD collection- congrats.

    I collect them as well but I never started with the objective of obtaining what can be considered a full set. I hope to assemble somewhere between 20- 30. I rarely see ones that I like. I did manage to find a raw 1846-O that I like- have not sent it off for grading and I may not.

    Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,199 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coinkat said:
    I thought more folks here would appreciate a fine British mid 60s sportscar. I was looking for an earlier Morgan to post and came up empty.

    So back to the questions...

    Seems reasonable that most collectors will have standards that are a working in progress highly influenced by what is available for a collected series. It also stands to reason that within any series some dates/mints are a better end product than others- not all will have the same issues that may influence the decision in buying the right coin. What I find interesting is that the graded population of certain series and dates within the series may not always reflect what you have thought as to the surviving population at various grade levels. As an example, last time I checked, our host has not graded a single MS George I half crown. And moving forward into the 20th century, our host has graded 1 1908 Florin.

    So at what point... if at all... does one buy a coin that may not be up to their standards, but still represents quality for the grade?

    My standards are that I won't put a coin in my collection if I'm reasonably confident that I'll be able to find a better one someday. So my willingness to buy a coin in a certain grade may change as I learn more about it's rarity and availability, but my standards never actually change.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,199 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Boosibri said:
    I do think what you note about all of the major coins that would be flushed out during this market cycle have already come to market is an interesting, and likely point

    I think it's complete BS. If it turns out the market cycle has turned, he's automatically right. If the market cycle hasn't turned, I guaranty there will be more coins. Actually, whatever happens, there will always be more coins.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • coinkatcoinkat Posts: 21,307 ✭✭✭✭✭

    But what coins and what will they look like?

    What is sort of interesting is the timing of TPG and what has surfaced and submitted and within that number what is within standards that one may have. The investigative follow up is did the Registry Set concept flush out more coins to be graded? While one would think that it has, I am not convinced that the pop reports reflect that or come close to supporting that in connection with certain series

    Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,138 ✭✭✭✭✭

    https://www.pcgs.com/shared-orders/order-details/22563136> @coinkat said:

    But what coins and what will they look like?

    What is sort of interesting is the timing of TPG and what has surfaced and submitted and within that number what is within standards that one may have. The investigative follow up is did the Registry Set concept flush out more coins to be graded? While one would think that it has, I am not convinced that the pop reports reflect that or come close to supporting that in connection with certain series

    What series do you refer too?

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • coinkatcoinkat Posts: 21,307 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If your question is about pop reports and the number of coins available for the PCGS registry.... It really extends to several countries and series- I used two in a prior comment in this thread and there are several others

    Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.

  • tcollectstcollects Posts: 343 ✭✭✭

    I'm planning to outlive most of you > @MrEureka said:

    @coinkat said:
    I thought more folks here would appreciate a fine British mid 60s sportscar. I was looking for an earlier Morgan to post and came up empty.

    So back to the questions...

    Seems reasonable that most collectors will have standards that are a working in progress highly influenced by what is available for a collected series. It also stands to reason that within any series some dates/mints are a better end product than others- not all will have the same issues that may influence the decision in buying the right coin. What I find interesting is that the graded population of certain series and dates within the series may not always reflect what you have thought as to the surviving population at various grade levels. As an example, last time I checked, our host has not graded a single MS George I half crown. And moving forward into the 20th century, our host has graded 1 1908 Florin.

    So at what point... if at all... does one buy a coin that may not be up to their standards, but still represents quality for the grade?

    My standards are that I won't put a coin in my collection if I'm reasonably confident that I'll be able to find a better one someday. So my willingness to buy a coin in a certain grade may change as I learn more about it's rarity and availability, but my standards never actually change.

    That's a very high standard, makes sense, stretch for the really rare stuff

  • pruebaspruebas Posts: 3,500 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I went to Stacks NYC to view lots today.

    I believe my standards are pretty high and I found most of the Pat Johnson coins disappointing. But many others were fantastic.

    I could easily spend $100k or more in the Stacks auction (just for my collection, not for resale) if I had it to spend.

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