A Crazy Idea - Anticipated and Mintage Cameo Rarity Scale
I had a crazy idea, and I thought it was interesting enough and dumb enough to share it with you guys. Set me straight !
Based on what I could find about the URS (Universal Rarity Scale) developed by Bowers, it plays off of current graded populations or known examples. I wanted to take that a bit further, for coins with a certain quality - Cameo and Deep Cameo coins. Here's the idea:
If we take the amount of graded CAM or DCAM coins and divide it against the total graded population, we can get an idea of what percent of coins sent to the TPGS came back CAM or DCAM for that specific coin. By taking that percentage and multiplying it against the total mintage of that coin, we can get an anticipated total of CAM or DCAM coins graded.
Here's the scale I came up with:
ACRS (Anticipated Cameo Rarity Scale) 10: None expected (0)
ACRS 9: 1-4 expected
ACRS 8: 5-10 expected
ACRS 7: 11-40 expected
ACRS 6: 41-250 expected
ACRS 5: 251-500 expected
ACRS 4: 501-1500 expected
ACRS 3: 1500-5000 expected
ACRS 2: 5001-15000 expected
ACRS 1: 15001-25000 expected
ACRS 0: More than 25000 expected
Let's use a 1892 Barber Half as an example, I will use a cameo rating scale (CRS) and deep cameo rating scale (DCRS) rating using the above scale for current KNOWN populations, or ones that exist in NGC or PCGS slabs today:
ACRS (Anticipated Cameo Rarity Scale): 3
ADCRS (Anticipated Deep Cameo Rarity Scale): 6
This could be further adapted to allow for the percentage of CAM or DCAM coins based on how much of the mintage is expected to be cameo or deep cameo based on the ACRS:
MCRS 10 (Mintage Cameo Rarity Scale): 0-1% of mintage cameo
MCRS 9: 2-3% of mintage cameo
MCRS 8: 4-5% of mintage cameo
MCRS 7: 6-7% of mintage cameo
MCRS 6: 7-8% of mintage cameo
MCRS 5: 8-9% of mintage cameo
MCRS 4: 10-15% of mintage cameo
MCRS 3: 16-20% of mintage cameo
MCRS 2: 21-30% of mintage cameo
MCRS 1: 31-60% of mintage cameo
MCRS 0: 61-100% of mintage cameo
So for a 1892 proof Barber half:
The purpose of this would be twofold:
1) It would make it so that people looking for a CAM or DCAM coin would have an idea of how many could conceivably exist, and
2) It would give them an idea of how rare a CAM or DCAM is based off of the rest of the mintage.
As we can see, a CAM 1892 Barber half is not particularly rare when compared to the rest of the mintage, while a DCAM is. The ACRS and ADCRS do not show this very well, as lower mintages will show lower surviving populations resulting in high rarity numbers on those two scales when the coins (CAM or DCAM) aren't particularly rare when compared to their mintage. Using these two scales together would give a great comparison for buyers to use when choosing the premium a cameo or deep cameo should deserve - a cameo 1892 half does not deserve a massive premium while a deep cameo may. Personally, I think the mintage rarity scale has more use for this purpose.
The problem with this is that the scales can be skewed by crackouts. I don't see a way that I can fix that.
Anyways, I think I have a bit too much time on my hands this Saturday afternoon! Also, I apologize for using so many different abbreviations and making you guys think!
Young Numismatist, Coin Photography: https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1090140/flyingal-coin-photography-10-photos#latest