At the 2006 ANA convention, a collector told me that for 20 years (1976 to 1996), he couldn't find Mexican pillar dollars above VF. This type was always known to be common, but it just wasn't that easy to buy for most collectors due to communication.
Communication is an issue with moderns because the publishers of price guides are modern bashers. They put prices on coins so low that nobody talks about them and if you try to sell one at a fair price there are no buyers.
The difference between the coins you always bring up and Mexican pillar dollars is predominantly the price. I state "predominantly" since it should be apparent that Mexican pillar dollars should be a lot scarcer than any Indian Republic circulation coin.
No. Maybe if you were talking about better date dollars and common rupees in VF that's true but if you're talking about high grades this breaks down. Plus if you're talking about what will be available in 50 years it breaks down because the Rupees still have high attrition. Even some of the better ones list for $4 and this is hardly enough to get them out of the barn and into safe storage.
Future collectors will be amazed at how few circulation coins from the latter half of the 20th century survived. A few will exist in the hundreds of thousands and even the millions and tens of millions but most will be scarce or rare in Gem and chBU. They will at the very least be scarce or rare in comparison to what people today believe.
So, you are seriously trying to tell me that Indian Republic coinage which is at most 72 years old is scarcer in equivalent quality than Mexican pilar dollars which are all at least 250 years old, even though the mintages are presumably hundreds of times larger with far more collectors in the last 75 years?
Read my comments on Bolivian coinage above for my rebuttal.
I think many of the sides in this argument do not have exact figures, and as CK said, it is not possible to know what was saved in every nook and cranny and closet bottom so who. really knows exact survival rates? And yet who is to say the tendencies to lose coins in so many ways are not variably significant factors with respect to modern coins. And many, many coins have likely been lost and will not come back.
No winners of the argument in all likelihood but for my part I just like collecting scarce to rare attractive coins at reasonable prices.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
@cladking said:
Something tells me we are speaking different languages again.
When I say few have survived I mean there are no longer billions of them. I don't mean there are fewer than a dozen 1950E 10p coins in any condition. I own two myself and one is AU.
Those old coins you say are common will still be common in a 100 years. Most moderns will not. There is already more than 99.9% attrition on manty of them. Many of the rest are still experiencing sky high attrition and this will continue even if the prices soar.
It depends upon what you mean by "scarce". On one occasion, you claimed several thousand gems to be scarce for some Soviet coinage.
How many will exist in 50 or 100 years isn't relevant to anyone now. I'm not disputing it.
In the past, I have agreed you that this coinage has much better than average financial potential, but I don't think the scarcity will be the reason. It's based upon my assumption that Indian collectors will prefer it over most Indian colonial **if **they don't consider it culturally their own.
I'm assuming it's probably scarcer than Chinese PRC. I don't conclude it's scarcer than other roughly comparable period developing world coinage.
You're claiming to know something you cannot possibly know. No one can claim to know what you are claiming.
That's why I compared Bolivian "moderns" to Indian Republic in one of my posts today. I'm referring to coins from 1935 to 1951 which roughly correspond to the coinage you presumably are talking about. Maybe the 1937 50c is somewhat scarce (per our post exchange years ago) but the others are very common even in very high grades.
These are "moderns", there were virtually no collectors in Bolivia then or now, yet the coins still survive in "large" numbers in (very) high quality.
Some of it may be due to travel (mostly by Americans) but I doubt much. It's not like that many Americans were traveling to Bolivia during this period. Certainly far fewer in number than would have visited India due to its much greater importance economically.
People quit saving coins intentionally and inadvertently in different places at different times. This coincides primarily with the end of silver production at the end of WW II. Very few countries are like Bolivia. Even here though look at the '65 and '70 5c. The former has a mintage 100 times the latter and the catalog lists them at the same price!
Collectors in the US went to some lengths to have them mailed to them but nobody collected base metal coins after WW II. Some people shipped crates of coins to the US before and after WW II.
The coins I listed for you in this thread above, any numbers of collectors could have done exactly what you did and never found single one, pre-internet. These types of coins were mostly unavailable pre-internet and even now only a low number of dealers ever offer it, infrequently.
Many of the things you say are essentially true but you are still missing my point and most of your true statements are irrelevant.
If collectors don't intentionally save coin then the most important and largest source for pristine specimens of that coin is cut off. Very few coins save themselves and in modern times this is MORE true than ever. Coins used to get stored for various purposes other than coin collecting. They were buried in barns and sunk in the ocean.
Modern coins won't survive such treatment at all far less in pristine condition.
There's a simple reason I don't care about pop reports; Even popular and valuable coins in low grade even get submitted in substantial percentages. Probably no more than half of '16-D dimes have been submitted because it is less important in lower grades and typical specimens so they trade raw or they've never been sold since the grading services have taken over.
I'm not contending there are only a few hundred '50E 10p E German coins. I'm contending there are only a few thousand and the attrition is 3% annually. Most of them will never be available to collectors because they will be lost or degraded before they are found. Very few are pristine.
They may be far scarcer than a '16-D dime in 50 years because the attrition on it is less than .5%
The attrition on Uncs is much lower yet.
So what if there are dozens or a few hundred of some modern that lists at high prices. If you're talking about Chinese coins these get resubmitted for higher grades skewing pop reports.
You are assuming that moderns can't be collected in the same number as old coins. The demand for moderns is subject to very different forces and applied by a different age group than demand for old coins. I don't know ANY Indian or Russian collectors any longer but logic suggests they are unlike the people I spoke with decades ago. Logic suggests the demand that is pushing prices through the roof is coming from a younger generation.
There are more younger people every day. This has basically always been true. Even following baby busts young people are much more active and visible than older people. And baby booms aren't caused by old timers.
Rule of thumb if it is not expensive in the beginning it won't be expensive in future or in buyers lifetime.
Always buy expensive and wanted coins.
Why would someone buy a basic Toyota Corolla and expect it to be a rare collectors car in the near future ?
I have some old Finland Markka mk from 1864-2001 and they are never going to be expensive because no one will ever want them.
Most world coins are junk sold in hobby assortment kilo kg bags for next to nothing.
@IKU said:
Rule of thumb if it is not expensive in the beginning it won't be expensive in future or in buyers lifetime.
Always buy expensive and wanted coins.
Why would someone buy a basic Toyota Corolla and expect it to be a rare collectors car in the near future ?
I have some old Finland Markka mk from 1864-2001 and they are never going to be expensive because no one will ever want them.
Most world coins are junk sold in hobby assortment kilo kg bags for next to nothing.
This was certainly true 25 or 50 years ago but sometimes times change with little notice. People simply quit saving modern world coins after WW II and now there is a little demand for a few of them.
@IKU said:
Rule of thumb if it is not expensive in the beginning it won't be expensive in future or in buyers lifetime.
I've essentially waited a lifetime but most modern collectors have started in the last ten or twenty years. Most of these collectors have large gains or will in the next ten years, probably.
Almost by definition when demand (new collectors) appears the prices shoot higher. Obviously common moderns will be losers and most collectors who get into moderns just to invest will lose money just like most investors in collectibles tend to do. "Investors" almost always buy common coins touted as great investments.
Knowledge rules in moderns and price guides are usually of little help,. US and Chinese moderns are beginning to form markets with price guides but this doesn't apply to most other world coins and there are still vast uncharted seas even in US moderns.
Yes. I try to collect coins that average people have at least heard about sometimes in their lives.
It is really hard to pass on coins that no one has any clue about where it originates.
People got to have some kind of mental connection to a coin: its history or theme to buy it and coin must have ability to liquidate easily and quickly.
If a coin is not stunning and boosting desire then it just feels empty and plain.
@IKU said:
Yes. I try to collect coins that average people have at least heard about sometimes in their lives.
It is really hard to pass on coins that no one has any clue about where it originates.
People got to have some kind of mental connection to a coin: its history or theme to buy it and coin must have ability to liquidate easily and quickly.
If a coin is not stunning and boosting desire then it just feels empty and plain.
There are lots of very beautiful, historic, and important modern world coins. Unlike old coins many people alive today remember them in circulation or are even still using them.
One of my favorites is a 51 year old Indonesian coin. It is a 1971 bird of paradise 50R. I doubt this coin is scarce even in Gem but it not often seen even in Unc. It's very difficult to learn anything about how it circulated and what happened to the 1 billion minted. All I can do is speculate because the information isn't available. It probably isn't a hoard coin because of its high face value but significant numbers would have been set aside at least initially.
Based on the low grade sometimes seen it circulated extensively. High circulated grades are also seen. It probably passed out of circulation in the early '90's due to inflation and they probably melted whatever was left around this time. As usual with when inflation affects moderns the coins probably were not redeemed in large percentages but the survivors have a huge attrition rate. High circulated grades are often seen when inflation begins shortly after or concurrently with issuance of moderns. By the early '80's the value became sufficiently low that users began saving out nicer examples. Of course most of these are gone now as well since attrition is high on coins saved by the public.
This is probably one of the more common moderns but if collectors began seeking it they'd find there's no depth to the supply and Gems are elusive. I use this coin as an example not because it is probably rare but because it's an important and desirable coin that is rarely seen in collections. It is virtually the poster child of modern circulating world coins and typical in most ways as to usage and destruction. Many moderns are much scarcer, probably.
The 50 Rupiah is clearly marked on the obverse that it was issued by "Bank Indonesia". It is copper nickel and larger than the US 5 cent piece.
Comments
So, you are seriously trying to tell me that Indian Republic coinage which is at most 72 years old is scarcer in equivalent quality than Mexican pilar dollars which are all at least 250 years old, even though the mintages are presumably hundreds of times larger with far more collectors in the last 75 years?
Read my comments on Bolivian coinage above for my rebuttal.
I think many of the sides in this argument do not have exact figures, and as CK said, it is not possible to know what was saved in every nook and cranny and closet bottom so who. really knows exact survival rates? And yet who is to say the tendencies to lose coins in so many ways are not variably significant factors with respect to modern coins. And many, many coins have likely been lost and will not come back.
No winners of the argument in all likelihood but for my part I just like collecting scarce to rare attractive coins at reasonable prices.
Well, just Love coins, period.
It depends upon what you mean by "scarce". On one occasion, you claimed several thousand gems to be scarce for some Soviet coinage.
How many will exist in 50 or 100 years isn't relevant to anyone now. I'm not disputing it.
In the past, I have agreed you that this coinage has much better than average financial potential, but I don't think the scarcity will be the reason. It's based upon my assumption that Indian collectors will prefer it over most Indian colonial **if **they don't consider it culturally their own.
I'm assuming it's probably scarcer than Chinese PRC. I don't conclude it's scarcer than other roughly comparable period developing world coinage.
People quit saving coins intentionally and inadvertently in different places at different times. This coincides primarily with the end of silver production at the end of WW II. Very few countries are like Bolivia. Even here though look at the '65 and '70 5c. The former has a mintage 100 times the latter and the catalog lists them at the same price!
Collectors in the US went to some lengths to have them mailed to them but nobody collected base metal coins after WW II. Some people shipped crates of coins to the US before and after WW II.
Many of the things you say are essentially true but you are still missing my point and most of your true statements are irrelevant.
If collectors don't intentionally save coin then the most important and largest source for pristine specimens of that coin is cut off. Very few coins save themselves and in modern times this is MORE true than ever. Coins used to get stored for various purposes other than coin collecting. They were buried in barns and sunk in the ocean.
Modern coins won't survive such treatment at all far less in pristine condition.
There's a simple reason I don't care about pop reports; Even popular and valuable coins in low grade even get submitted in substantial percentages. Probably no more than half of '16-D dimes have been submitted because it is less important in lower grades and typical specimens so they trade raw or they've never been sold since the grading services have taken over.
I'm not contending there are only a few hundred '50E 10p E German coins. I'm contending there are only a few thousand and the attrition is 3% annually. Most of them will never be available to collectors because they will be lost or degraded before they are found. Very few are pristine.
They may be far scarcer than a '16-D dime in 50 years because the attrition on it is less than .5%
The attrition on Uncs is much lower yet.
So what if there are dozens or a few hundred of some modern that lists at high prices. If you're talking about Chinese coins these get resubmitted for higher grades skewing pop reports.
You are assuming that moderns can't be collected in the same number as old coins. The demand for moderns is subject to very different forces and applied by a different age group than demand for old coins. I don't know ANY Indian or Russian collectors any longer but logic suggests they are unlike the people I spoke with decades ago. Logic suggests the demand that is pushing prices through the roof is coming from a younger generation.
There are more younger people every day. This has basically always been true. Even following baby busts young people are much more active and visible than older people. And baby booms aren't caused by old timers.
Rule of thumb if it is not expensive in the beginning it won't be expensive in future or in buyers lifetime.
Always buy expensive and wanted coins.
Why would someone buy a basic Toyota Corolla and expect it to be a rare collectors car in the near future ?
I have some old Finland Markka mk from 1864-2001 and they are never going to be expensive because no one will ever want them.
Most world coins are junk sold in hobby assortment kilo kg bags for next to nothing.
This was certainly true 25 or 50 years ago but sometimes times change with little notice. People simply quit saving modern world coins after WW II and now there is a little demand for a few of them.
I've essentially waited a lifetime but most modern collectors have started in the last ten or twenty years. Most of these collectors have large gains or will in the next ten years, probably.
Almost by definition when demand (new collectors) appears the prices shoot higher. Obviously common moderns will be losers and most collectors who get into moderns just to invest will lose money just like most investors in collectibles tend to do. "Investors" almost always buy common coins touted as great investments.
Knowledge rules in moderns and price guides are usually of little help,. US and Chinese moderns are beginning to form markets with price guides but this doesn't apply to most other world coins and there are still vast uncharted seas even in US moderns.
It all takes time... ...and demand.
Yes. I try to collect coins that average people have at least heard about sometimes in their lives.
It is really hard to pass on coins that no one has any clue about where it originates.
People got to have some kind of mental connection to a coin: its history or theme to buy it and coin must have ability to liquidate easily and quickly.
If a coin is not stunning and boosting desire then it just feels empty and plain.
There are lots of very beautiful, historic, and important modern world coins. Unlike old coins many people alive today remember them in circulation or are even still using them.
One of my favorites is a 51 year old Indonesian coin. It is a 1971 bird of paradise 50R. I doubt this coin is scarce even in Gem but it not often seen even in Unc. It's very difficult to learn anything about how it circulated and what happened to the 1 billion minted. All I can do is speculate because the information isn't available. It probably isn't a hoard coin because of its high face value but significant numbers would have been set aside at least initially.
Based on the low grade sometimes seen it circulated extensively. High circulated grades are also seen. It probably passed out of circulation in the early '90's due to inflation and they probably melted whatever was left around this time. As usual with when inflation affects moderns the coins probably were not redeemed in large percentages but the survivors have a huge attrition rate. High circulated grades are often seen when inflation begins shortly after or concurrently with issuance of moderns. By the early '80's the value became sufficiently low that users began saving out nicer examples. Of course most of these are gone now as well since attrition is high on coins saved by the public.
This is probably one of the more common moderns but if collectors began seeking it they'd find there's no depth to the supply and Gems are elusive. I use this coin as an example not because it is probably rare but because it's an important and desirable coin that is rarely seen in collections. It is virtually the poster child of modern circulating world coins and typical in most ways as to usage and destruction. Many moderns are much scarcer, probably.
The 50 Rupiah is clearly marked on the obverse that it was issued by "Bank Indonesia". It is copper nickel and larger than the US 5 cent piece.