Rob's Long Beach Expo Report
Rob9874
Posts: 318 ✭✭✭✭
Took my 11-year-old @Azjedi and my wife to the Long Beach Expo on Thursday. It was the first large coin show for all of us. We drove over from Phoenix.
My collecting focus now is a PCGS 1st year type set, preferably CAC. I spent the week prior updating my want list, with a price list from Greysheet's CPG (more on that later). I had browsed the coins listed for LBE on Collector's Corner ahead of time, and noticed a 1909 VDB Lincoln in MS66+RD CAC. I was targeting a 65RD, but this was priced right, so it was on my radar. Then I realized that quite a few of my 20th century 1st year types were 66+'s, and some others in 66 that I now want to upgrade to pluses.
My wife and son stayed the first hour, then went to the beach, allowing me to take my time and browse without pressure. My first pass through I didn't see much from my want list in CAC. I checked out the VDB, but saw micro spots through my loupe, and decided to think about it some more. I did see an 1953 arrows Liberty Seated half dime in AU53 CAC. My target was an AU58 CAC, which CPG lists at $182, but figured I'd consider the AU53 CAC if the price was right. The dealer wanted $225 and wouldn't budge, so I passed. That's more than the AU58 price! The 2nd time around the bourse, I looked for non-CAC coins, figuring I can get them CAC'd myself. I did find a 1942 Type 2 Jefferson in MS66+FS, an upgrade to my 66FS, and the dealer offered $50 less than my target price, so I got it.
I found a few more half dimes at another table, 1837 and 1860, neither CAC. The 1860 was MS63, which CPG lists at $286. They had it priced at $450, but said they could come down to $425. The 1837 was XF45, $338 in CPG and they wanted $400. I passed, but came around another a few more times to check them out. I realized they were pricing off PCGS price guide, and I wondered if maybe Greysheet's CPG was unrealistically low. So I checked latest auction prices on the 1860, and the highest in the last year was $360 in April. The dealer asked what was stopping me, so at the risk of offending him, I just told him it was the price. He explained to me that since COVID, prices have increased, which I am well aware. I told him that his offer of $425 would be a record sale for an 1860 in MS63. I know that's a little off etiquette for shows, but I couldn't help myself when their rock bottom price is 18% higher than the highest recorded sale. I would have paid a record price, $375 or $380, but not $425.
Frustrated that I couldn't find coins I wanted and when I did they were priced rather high, I decided to get the 1853 half dime for $225 and the 1909 VDB in 66+RD, both CAC. The VDB dealer offered $75 off his asking price, which sealed the deal for me. I may upgrade to an unspotted one later. It's not bad, CAC liked it. I filled some other holes in my 1st year type set in my target grades, just not CAC, including an 1831 capped bust quarter in VF30, 1892 Barber quarter in AU58, and a 1908 $2.50 Indian in AU58. My first gold coin! Also got an MS64+ 1922 Peace dollar for my '22 Peace grading set (PO1 through MS66). Granted, all were above CPG prices.
My son got 2 Franklins for his MS64FBL set. We picked up a Schroeder silver round, as we collect him due to our last name being Schroeder. Witter Coins gave him an 1885-O Morgan as a gift for being a YN. I got my dad a lepton minted under Pontius Pilate (so I was told). Got my son some Disney dollars. I bought some Australian tiger silver coins, as one of my employees at work shares my birth year of 1974 and is really into the fact that 2022 is the Year of the Tiger, which is our Chinese zodiac sign. Going to give him the half ounce. Then I got a Rabbit for my son, which is the 2011 zodiac sign.
All in all I considered it a successful show. I had a great time, picked up some coins I needed, and realized I need to rethink my want list pricing guidelines.
UPDATE: I forgot to mention that Tony LittleJohn's display of Standing Liberty Quarters was a highlight of the show. SLQ's are probably my favorite coin, so I especially enjoyed it. And he was so nice and a delight to talk with.
Comments
Thanks for your show report. Sounds like you had a good time.
Very nice, sounds like it was a successful show for you and a nice trip for the whole family. I too have made the drive from Phx to the LB show many times in the past, while not as big as in previous years it is still quite a change from the local monthly show.
What I have found in the past at this show is that the prices are full retail and then some and many dealers are reluctant to haggle unless you are a known buyer to them. I understand that the costs of setting up and doing these shows is high, but for myself, other than stopping by one or two dealers that I have bought from or have a working relationship with, it just is not worth the cost to travel to LB anymore. That is due to the retail+ pricing and also now the crazy fuel cost, combining it with a family trip does help make the costs more palatable.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
Nice report. I found it interesting to walk through your buying (and passing) logic. Glad it was productive overall.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
Yeah, not sure I would pay for the gas and hotel costs to go there again, just for the opportunity to buy at retail+ prices. But where else can Phoenicians go for large shows? Not many in Arizona. I know the ANA money show is finally coming next year, after the last one was cancelled due to Covid.
Don't bury yourself in what you buy. If the price seems too high just pass. There is no reason for you to pay the coin dealers country club fees.
Mint state 1909 VDB cents are very common coins. They were saved in large numbers at the time of issue.
The LB show was a great opportunity 4-5 years ago. I could rent an economy car, drive to LB and back on the same day for less than the cost of a round trip airfare, fastforward to today and that is no longer true. So really now if you plan ahead and get your tickets early enough you could probably fly (just you) to one of the FUN shows for a day at the same cost as driving to the LB show. The catch to that is that (IMO) you would see many of the same national show dealers at FUN as you saw at LB and the see the same inflated prices.
Going to shows is less about buying coins (for me) but rather making connections and meeting any dealer that I may have done business with. I might try to attend another LB show again in the future but only to; connect with a few of those dealers that I do know, drop off coins with NGC for grading, or drop coins with one of the auction firms so I don't have to ship them.
I too am looking forward to attending the ANA money show next year, it has been decades since Phx has hosted a large national show.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
Great show report. I appreciate your methodology. Nice pickups. Peace Roy
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Agree to a point, but quality will always command a premium, especially in a rising market.
Respectfully disagree to a point. In this case, the nice 66+s and above with CAC are not that common. The price for the 66+ has doubled in the past 3 years. The last several auctions in '22 were in the $650-$780 range.
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/showcase/2819
Nice show report, thanks for posting it!
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
I'll share that I paid $625 for mine. Considered it a bargain. Here are the pics:
In the closeups here, you can see the spotting. Consider that drove the lower price.
I would never pay that much for ANY 1909 VDB cent. They are just another common date. I think many collectors should just step away from the market for awhile and let the irrational exuberance pass.
+1 Alan Greenspan
To your point, PCGS shows the price history as fluctuating between $400-$550 from 2007-2021. It's the last 2 years that it's climbed to $675. Oh well, what are you gonna do. I'm not going to pause my activity in the hobby for a year or more, waiting for prices to level off.
Regarding my other price discrepancies, it appears half dimes are a denomination that has a rather large gap between prices on CPG and PCGS. I'm doing a comparison and adding PCGS pricing to my want list, and most others are relatively similar. Then I get to half dimes and the two are way off. Especially the 1860. Guess I just happened to stumble on the one year of the one denomination with the greatest difference in pricing.
Like your 1853 half dime.
I don't see why. If you were prepared to pay a higher price than literally anyone has ever paid for a relatively common coin, and it was still not enough, then it's probably a good idea to walk away and find another venue to buy the coin. I mean take the '60 Half Dime. With a pop of 114/436 they must come along fairly often. Unless the coin was amazing for the grade it wasn't worth anywhere near what he was asking. Keep your powder dry!
Sometimes the best thing you can do at a show is to just walk away. No need to fear telling a dealer you just can't make the price work. If you've budgeted $375 and the dealer can only come down to $425, then he gets to keep his coin. Absolutely no shame in telling the dealer that, and no need to haggle, just be sure to be willing to buy if the dealer meets your price. Don't say you'd budgeted $375 if you'd be unhappy to be in the coin above $350. You never know, $375 might look good to a dealer who has trotted out the coin with its $450 sticker to a dozen shows. Of course you know this, but it might be helpful to others: he can't come back to you in December and expect you to pay the $375. Offers, on either side, are rarely good after you leave the table and almost never good after you leave the bourse.
Great report, very well detailed. Thanks for posting this.
Yeah, that's always my mindset. Sellers can ASK alot for their items, but they end up holding on to inventory for months and years, hoping to get that max profit. I've been a reseller my whole life, been selling on eBay for over 25 years, and run a booth at an antique store. I shake my head at sellers who focus on maximizing profit over turning inventory. If you can't make a profit on $375, then maybe you paid too much. I had more than one dealer respond to my offer with "I paid more than that!" I wanted to say "that's not my problem." Why does that mean I have to overpay, just because you did?
On the other hand, I don't want to pass on everything because my price expectations are unrealistically too low. I know the best "guide" is actual sales results, which I track on my favorite handful of wants. But my list is long, so I like to have a reference to use. CPG has been relatively close for me, just not at this show. Sounds like I'm not the only one to experience higher prices at shows.
Regarding "overpaying" - dealers are often competing with retail collectors for quality coins, since the internet has made online bidding (and excellent imaging) very accessible. This is especially the case in a hot market. The price guides also cannot keep up. There is action all over the place, most of it not public, and impossible to track all the transactions. Some super high quality coins and rarities also don't appear in public auctions so often. Sales are commonly behind the scenes. With price guides lagging, the market is all over the place. You can see sold coins on eBay running high and then some lower, sometimes much lower. Heck, I listed a certified mint state PCGS Peace dollar in an auction with a 99-cent start and no reserve with free shipping. It sold for 99-cents, less than face, much less than melt, and far below any price guide.
I didn't set up at Long Beach (only second show I have missed since 1984) this time because it was right into the Independence Day weekend (higher hotel rates), the June show is almost always lackluster, and attendance might be down (apart from holiday considerations) due to fuel costs and flight cancellations. The overhead hit for those who did set up probably was a little higher than usual. And they are not there for charity. It is tough to make a buck on a coin that the buyer at your table found in auction and assumes that is what you paid for it. I missed getting my bids in at GC one Sunday last month. A coin I wanted to inventory sold for almost exactly $3000. The other dealer who bought it wouldn't budge from $3500. So I am in at $3500. Someone might come to the table at a show and show me that it sold for $3000 and they want to pay $3000. Just to get them to pay $3500 is more often unlikely.
Sounds like you had a good show and were able to balance it with your family. A show is good if you come out with some coins that improve your sets, you learned some new valuable information regarding your areas of collecting, or you made some good contacts. The biggest drive for me in going to shows, from either side of the table, is in the socialization. Now I wish I had driven up to Long Beach at least for a day.
The fact that CAC likes a spotted MS66+RD, leads me to believe you bought the sticker, over the coin. Trust your gut, not the sticker.
Matt Snebold
Yeah, I didn't feel great about it and know better, but then again I was excited about that coin the week leading to the expo, having seen it on preview. I also think that being at a large show played into it too. I wanted to leave with a rather good coin (on my budget) so I didn't feel I went all that way, paid the gas & hotel, and didn't get a good coin. Nothing else stood out to take its place. The fact that it's CAC'd, I should be able to sell it rather easily if I ever decide to. It looks good to the naked eye, so I'm satisfied.
The fact that it's CAC'd, I should be able to sell it rather easily if I ever decide to. It looks good to the naked eye, so I'm satisfied.
If you're satisfied, that's what matters. I like your focus on the first-year type set. That sounds like it could be very satisfying. Thank you for an interesting show report.
Matt Snebold
I don't understand this. Can you explain why you would pay $3500 for a coin that sells for $3000 to sit in inventory? Or do I misunderstand?
Yeah good report. Thanks
@Rob9874 .... Thanks for an interesting and thoughtful report. Nice acquisitions. Been many years since I have been to a show (none in this area). Cheers, RickO
Great report. You can't overpay for quality. The 53 hd was priced for quality as your image shows, so guides are worthless there. Most quality CAC coins are priced higher than retail guides, even the CAC retail guide listed on their site. Dealers know that such coins are simply very had to find and in extremely high demand. Hence priced higher than the run of the mill non-CACed examples.
You mention that you will buy and get them CACed yourself, well on average, it seems that most get around 40-50% CACed and that is for their best coins they send in. So maybe better to stay patient and find the CAC ones, probably more economically viable...............
Best, SH
"You can't overpay for quality". This has always struck me as little more than dealer hype.
Probably true, but it depends how much you’re overpaying.
Agree. Try telling that to a coin dealer that you are trying to sell a coin to.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
The coins I have really had to stretch for are coins I do well with when I go to sell. Just y experience.
Nice report. Thank you
It sold for $3K because it went for the opening bid. I was not there to bid it as planned. It is worth more as the finest, and only known mint state example of the die pair, not that anyone else would probably have realized it at the time. In short, it is worth more than the price I paid. Hopefully, it doesn't languish in the inventory. Just never know when you will connect with the right collector.
You can overpay for any coin, from dreck to spectacular, from common to ultrarare. Everything has a price. That said, the best specimens of sought after issues never should go for price guide values. Learned that lesson with the Eliasberg sales.
Yep, that's crossed my mind. I just need to learn patience. Since my focus is type set, and 1st year, and PCGS, and CAC, and problem-free (except for my spotted VDB
), and in a certain price range - I don't end up buying much and get antsy.
If I like a coin I will step up but since I specialize in Morgan's, I feel my challenge is buying coins that I feel should be green beaned but are not. It's gratifying when I do.
Further, when it comes to a bull market, that last 10% is the most dangerous part. We seem to be in that zone generally...Morgan's certainly.