Sacrificing Quality When You Don't Know How Many Examples Exist...
airplanenut
Posts: 22,243 ✭✭✭✭✭
I'm pretty consistent in preaching waiting for the right coin to come along and not buying a lesser quality example just because it's available now. I thought up a scenario today (well, it presented itself, I should say) and thought it would be an interesting discussion topic. In my case, today's example relates to a very specific paper set I'm putting together, but I've had the same thing with one of my coin sets, too.
For many of the collector coins out there, we know what's available. The super rarities may be rare, but they're generally all accounted for even if they're not on the market. For other coins that aren't available all day every day, auction records give an idea of how frequently they are available and the quality in which they exist (whether that be grade distribution, or "this date always looks like crap," or "it seems like every one has been cleaned").
Now find some attribute of interest that results in you looking for a subset of what's out there, but there are no records of how many examples were made or remain. Perhaps you're looking for coins with a particular countermark, love tokens with a given date and/or initials, chopmarked trade dollars where you only want chops in a certain part of the coin. Whatever it is you're trying to find, the important point is that once you've determined it isn't common, all you know is that when an example presents itself, it could be a week or a decade before you see another in any condition.
So back to quality: if you see the coin you're looking for, but it's not the ideal specimen (it's cleaned, that countermark you want is weakly struck, there's a rim ding) do you get it because it could be your one chance in years or ever to get it (and if a better one comes along, you can always sell the first one), or do you hold onto hope that a better example has to come along eventually?
There are coins I've had on my want list for years because I'm waiting to find one that's just right, but I also know such coins exist, so I can pass up plenty of lesser examples. But on the ones where I simply don't know what else may be out there, is there a point where being selective is a bad idea?
Comments
Yes.
There’s not a point where being selective is a bad idea, unless you can’t stand the thought of never finding/being able to acquire an example that makes you happy.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
When I was a collector, I always answered this question with "How long have I been looking for this coin?" And it is true, that for rare varieties, exonumia, and esoteric items, there is not much population information available.
When I was a dealer, I posted a very rare variety on my website and quickly received a call from an interested collector. He was very interested but wanted a lower price than what I had paid for the coin. I asked him, "how long have you been looking for this coin?" He answered, "thirty years." I said, "what does that tell you?" He bought the coin and was quite happy with it.
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
I collect tokens as an afterthought. Quite some years ago now a token came up at auction that a well-respected dealer would have valued at $70. I paid over $500. That flushed out another, less nice one that was shopped around privately for, you guessed it, $500. I don't know if it ever sold at that price. I haven't seen another since.
I'll fill the hole if the price is right and will buy the "right" coin when it comes along. I've been doing that for a while now and always get my money back on the imperfect coins.
For me, I've been benefitting from owning multiple examples of rare items. It improves my familiarity with the series. I have a ~70 coin set for which I've probably owned 200-400 coins of that type in the process of building the set. This is stuff I don't see at shows and I can't do auction viewings. Often the only way to get my hands on the coins is to buy them. I guarantee you that I know the series better under a wider range of grades than the guy that builds the 70 coin set by buying 70 really nice, already certified coins.
If the main thing your collection brings to the table is eye appeal, then adding an imperfect coin could hurt it. If you're collection's value is that it is a survey of all love tokens, then it might help. In my opinion, a complete collection has some imperfections if those imperfections are representative of what you collect. If you like love tokens, then you better have some holed and mounted love tokens. That plays into the story of how they were used. If I collected ASEs, then I would want to have some with milk spots (maybe not as the lone example for a date). You can't tell the complete story of ASEs without that.
My reason for often waiting/passing on a coin is that I have dozens of very rare coins I'd like to add to my collection. If any particular one doesn't feel right, there is another rare coin around the corner that will feel right. This is even if it isn't the exact same type. Getting the wrong coin could come at the cost of getting the right one later.
Ultimately you can ask yourself two questions: 1) Is my collection better for having this coin? 2) Am I better for having owned and studied this coin? If the answer to either question is yes, then I'd say to consider buying it.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
So, you're saying there's not a point where being selective is a bad idea except for when it is...
Precisely😉, though I also tried to show how to determine the point where being selective is a bad idea.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Unfortunately we are all going to eventually run out of life. How long do you have to look for the “right” coin. For most of us 10, 20 or 30 years may be out of the question.
Timing has to be perfect in so many ways ….. for the right one and don’t settle for less if you can afford it.
But don’t rush as if today’s your last day 🤔
If the lower graded item cost an amount of $ that i didn't care about, id get it.
If it was a $50,000 item that i was going to be upset every time i looked at it because it wasn't what i want, then hell no.
I'd use the lower graded one as a placeholder until a nicer example- if ever- comes along.
peacockcoins
Unless it is one of the last or the last item you need, I would not sacrifice quality. A lot of the fun is in the hunt. So if there are multiple items left to find, I have never been happy settling.
I suppose it depends on how rare ‘rare’ is.
For what I collect, I pass 95% of the time. The lesser examples will drive me absolutely crazy. I’d prefer to stare at a empty hole, vs a lesser coin, but that’s just me.
Dave
It doesn't have to be rare to be hard to find so if one comes along and it's close to what I want I'm buying it.
I've been waiting 2 years for a coin to show up and still nothing, a simple 1948-s Lincoln Cent MS67RD CAC. There's 54 of these out there, so why can I find one...........
So, yes if another coin I need shows up and it's not the "perfect coin" I'll buy it
Mike
My Indians
Danco Set
G… I’d be upset with 3K!
BTW if I may ask …. Why your handler name is humanssuck ?
¯_(ツ)_/¯
wut?
These are the key words. My answer, "Yes."
Not knowing what else is out there is often the case with collectibles other than coins.
It depends what your goal is. If completion is the goal, then buy it because you have no idea when you'll get another chance. If your goal is to get attractive [coins] that you'll enjoy looking at, maybe hunt a little more.
One thing to consider: extreme rarities, even if indeterminably rare, tend to increase in value, even if defective. I wish I had saved Laura Sperber's article on a bent key (1894-S dime?)
Well, the decision about whether or not to buy a coin is pretty complicated. As I’ve said before it comes down to the intersection of available funds, the particular look of the coin, the “appropriate” labels & stickers, my assessment of the coin, price, and timing. Virtually always at least one of these things ends up compromised. When it actually works, it’s a bit of a miracle.
Several times I’ve waited more than a year or two for a coin, finally found & bought one, and suddenly see a better one almost immediately. I’ve learned to just buy them both and sell the lesser coin. It’s not always a financial win, but it’s best for the collection.
@Airplanenut said: But on the ones where I simply don't know what else may be out there, is there a point where being selective is a bad idea?
I don't think compromising with yourself is ever a good idea.
I have found that in the instance where I become impatient and choose something in the manner you've outlined that a suitable coin soon shows itself. I have learned to wait. Also, allowing "lesser coins" into a collection is a slippery-slope and soon there are more than just the one and a collection suffers in quality.
Under the circumstances outlined in the OP ( @airplanenut thanks for an interesting perspective on a topic we all encounter from time to time), I will evaluate the 'suddenly available' item for quality. Although it may be less than I prefer, I may buy it. If significantly less, I will likely pass. Sometimes, having the item, though not perfect, is better than not having it. The quality of the item is the determining factor for me. For example, I may want an MS67, however, a nice MS65 would work - and, if the ideal 67 comes along, I can upgrade. Cheers, RickO