Fairmont, SB April 2022 and dated Liberty gold
ranshdow
Posts: 1,442 ✭✭✭✭
Back in April Doug Winter wrote a follow-on article on the Fairmont hoard and what it's done to prices in the dated Liberty gold market for $5's, $10's, and $20's. While this particular article focuses on Philly coins and every branch mint except SF, there was some interesting price action in the rarer SF $5's. In particular, I'm thinking of the 1862-S $5 in PCGS / CAC EF45 that went for $25,200. Now Doug makes the point that this doesn't mean every PCGS 1862-S $5 in or near this grade is suddenly worth in this neighborhood, but the PCGS price guide now seems to reflect a big price bump even one grade down. I wonder how solid this pricing is.
A while back some concern was expressed that Fairmont would destroy the populations for certain rare dated gold, and by inference, prices. Obviously one needs to pick and choose dates, grades, and actual coins when it comes to this.
Comments
Pricing is difficult these days with the bifurcated marketplace. Choice for the grade material is pushing pricing further and further from average for the grade.
It will get worse when demand softens.
Doug just posted about 40 gold coins across many denominations. Up for 2 hours now and about half on hold. As usual the PCGS CAC items were very popular.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
It's making it hard to price coins like these as a collector. It was always hard but this kind of situation seems to require even more visibility, access and nous than before.
It’s even more difficult pricing gold coins today with the CAC market on fire. The Fairmont/Hendricks coins were for the most part exceptional and the prices reflected this. A lot of folks felt that a lot of them were undergraded. Good luck pricing an A quality perhaps undergraded coin and a B quality coin especially when there are very few recent sales.
Maybe an evolution to price ranges for some series.
I wouldn't think that would harm buyer or seller as long as the data used was reliable.
That's an old game as I'm sure you know. Every once in a while there'd be a whole auction full of systematically (or selectively, even better) under-graded material, like in Littlejohn or parts of Bentley. Also the hype surrounding Fairmont, which to me looks like it may have effectively seeded at least a couple of new whales, judging by registries and these prices realised.
There were undergraded coins in Fairmont Hendricks but more significant to me was the overwhelming number of coins with natural, unmessed with surfaces ("original" if you prefer) across dates and mintmarks. I stretched for a few coins I was determined on and there were plenty of others who did so and on a grander scale. But the last time an opportunity even approached the scope of this sale came along for half eagles was probably Milas and that was 1995.
Of course, there is always the possibility that there will be Hendricks Part Two, but that was something that all the buyers had to accept as part of the bargain.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
Link?
Mike
My Indians
Danco Set
I have been following the fairmont sales for a couple of years. It is my favorite pedigree.
Many are already on hold but you can get a feel for pricing.
https://raregoldcoins.com/rare-gold-coin-inventory
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
I posted in April my Fairmont Hendricks newp. I explained why I was willing to pay '1 grade up'. A couple weeks later the Price Guide changed and rounded the value up. I consider the PC53 1858-s eagle I bought to be exceptional, an outlier for the date and grade. I don't think the Price Guide should have changed much, if at all. It is a thin market, both supply and demand.
Fairmont is more a brand than a pedigree/provenance in a sense as there is no “Fairmont/Hendricks”. It’s just a hand selected group of coins from the deep well that is a European bank hoard.
I sympathize with those struggling to price these rare dates which are now less rare but with comps reflecting the staggering prices from this group.
If I were still collecting in this space it would be tempting to sell vi auction at these levels and hope that the market appreciated the quality of the set in a similar manner as Hendricks.
Latin American Collection