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PSA 9/10 Price Differential
PaulMaul
Posts: 4,712 ✭✭✭✭✭
The price of PSA 10 vintage stars has gone stratospheric. And the higher the multiple that PSA 10s bring over PSA 9s, the less I understand it. Given the minute differences (if any) between a nice 9 and a 10, how can these multiples be justified? Will there ever come a time when sanity prevails and nice 9s catch up a little? Or is it all in the numbers?
Case in point: PSA 10s of 1972 Stargell and Clemente IA recently brought $31,000 for the pair via Heritage. My 9s (below) set me back $350 in 2015-2018, and would probably be about $1000 now.
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Scarcity drove the price of the T-206 Wagner. Scarcity has driven the enormous jump in Ruth and Mantle signed cards in PSA holders. Scarcity will drive PSA 10 prices as well.
Set Registry too, although not always. Collectors want the best of the best. That’s why Mantle, Ruth, Jordan, Orr, Gretzky and Brady sell well. A PSA 10 of those guys will be coveted more than a PSA 9. Experienced collectors buy the card. Not everyone is experienced.
No doubt. I just don’t see enough difference between the average 9 and the average 10 to justify a 100x multiple. It seems excessive. But I get that the investment crowd is not actually looking at the cards.
And that’s why some eBay sellers put excessively high BIN prices on rare items. They understand that 95% of the crowd will never pay that high for a rare item. They also understand that 5% will.
It’s a game only a few rich folks get to play in, while the middle class guys are content with “lesser” condition stuff.
I just feel like all of that would make a lot more sense if the “rare” “greater” card consistently looked a lot better than the “lesser” one.
I had the Clemente IA graded last year thinking it’s worth a shot for a review at these crazy price differences.
The registry is a sickness. I believe people are overspending on a PSA 10 just to have it for their sets. Like you, I purchased many PSA 9's back in the day to upgrade my 8's. Nowadays, I can't afford any of the PSA 9's I still need for my set.
I think Clemente IA goes for more than $1,000 alone now - 9s are going crazy too. The multiple from 9 to 10 and from 8 to 9 are both going up rapidly.
Think the pair in 9 go for $1200-$1600 now (would bet on closer to $1600) in a 9 which is a multiple of about 19-26 -still extremely high and I agree with your point.
That's part of the point of the Registry though - the gamification of it all. I know I check my sets and if I'm just a little below the next guy, I'll go upgrade a card (or pay a little more than I usually would for a new one) just so I can bump ahead in the rankings.
Then I go hate myself for it.
What I find fascinating is if you look up the Grading Standards for each grade a 10 is described as a card that can have 55/45 centering or 60/40. Then you look at the Grading Standards for a 9 and it says centering can be 60/40. So it does seem strange that the 9 can be worth 10 to 20% of the value of the 10. From that angle there could be zero difference at all between a 9 and a 10.
I like well centered 9's!
It's not necessarily about quality or eye appeal; in many cases, it's about ego and owning the "highest grade."
That said, the highest grade cards also tend to appreciate in value at a greater rate over time, too, so from an investment perspective, buying the highest grade cards is the way to go.
There are many different ways to approach collecting. No one way is necessarily better than another and collectors as individuals approach cards with different perceptions and reasons (and budgets) to collect what they choose.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
It’s definitely about ego and owning the highest grade, and of course the nosebleed grades will appreciate the most. The point is that the highest grade is supposed to correlate to the nicest card. That’s the point of grading. Yes, it’s somewhat subjective what “nicest” means. A good start would be feeling confident that I could pick out a 10 among a group of 9s with the flips covered, or having confidence that a cracked out 10 would get that grade a second time. I don’t have confidence on either of those points. To me, that places the status of a 10 on very shaky ground.
Bo Derek was a 10.
How about Raquel Welch and Farrah
Card beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and once a card passes the PSA 9 threshold, it has a shot at a 10 if the beholder decides it belongs in a 10 holder.
The PSA 10/9 differential is the salient (and frankly dumbest) feature of our hobby. And that applies to any massive price jump between adjacent grades or half grades.
Paying an exponential price increase for a microscopic increase in card quality is patently illogical. It is a phenomenon undergirded by raw ego and usually also The Registry. Most often 10/9 grades are from yesteryear and don't even look the part.
It always will boil down to those who buy the card not the holder, versus those who buy the sticker wanting to think they beat everybody and have the best. Sometimes it works out that the best card is the highest grade; many, many times that is not the case. Eyes, eye appeal, and the card trump the sticker.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
The point is that the highest grade is supposed to correlate to the nicest card. That’s the point of grading. Yes, it’s somewhat subjective what “nicest” means. A good start would be feeling confident that I could pick out a 10 among a group of 9s with the flips covered, or having confidence that a cracked out 10 would get that grade a second time. I don’t have confidence on either of those points. To me, that places the status of a 10 on very shaky ground.
I think the equation changes as cards get newer.
For vintage we could all pick a strong 9 and a weak 10 of the same card and not be able to tell the difference. But take a year in the 50s or 60s and show the last 25 10s sold and the last 25 9s sold and I bet most of us would have a pretty high ratio if we took the time to assess which 25 are 10s in a blind test. I think that for cards in the 70s that ratio goes way down and even further down each subsequent decade. There are 10s I see that make my jaw drop.
This is the most beautiful card I have ever seen a picture of. If I were a billionaire and this came to auction I would make sure not to lose it and it would have nothing to do with a registry or bragging rights.
I’m with you Paulmaul.
I once owned a PSA 10 Bobby Orr 1/1. Owned the same card in a 9.
After a while I sold the PSA 10 because I knew the money difference is extreme and the difference in the card was minimal.
I'd agree with a large part of what you said excepy the "shaky ground" part. History has clearly shown us otherwise.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
There was a time when the 1972 Topps Nolan Ryan PSA 10 saw a rather significant reduction in price after the POP went from 1 to 4.
Like a $4,000 reduction.
@grote15
By shaky ground, I meant more in terms of credibility rather than price.
I'd agree the low pop 10s are subject to value volatility when others grade but that wasn't the point of my assertion. The PSA 10 HOFers in higher pops have generally outperformed their lower grade counterparts. Not saying I agree with that but that's been the case, objectively speaking.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Not all cards within the grade are equal, no question about that. Savvy collectors develop an eye for eye appeal.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
There's no way I'd send any of my PSA 9's that I received this year for re-grading back to PSA. (in the hopes of getting a 10). They may come back a PSA 7.
Gretzky,Ripken, and Sandberg collection. Still trying to complete 1975 Topps baseball set from when I was a kid.
Your 72 Clemente and 72 Stargell are clearly high end. Square sharp corners, very well centered, sharp registration and colors and overall "flat" appearance in the holder. My guess as to why not a 10 (with so many great features) is likely surface micro details....perhaps faint scratch lines on surface or a surface "bubble" come to mind. Both these features will knock a 10 to a 9. Also fine wear on rear surface corners will also do it.
If you don't have any of these defects send them back in for second opinion.
Every single card, or other collectible of any type, sits somewhere on a continuum, except that PSA has decreed that there is a grading floor of 1, so that a card which almost makes it to a 2 is graded the same as a card with the bottom half ripped off. Anyway, let's examine a card which is a 9 normally, but is nice enough that if you sent it in ten times one of them would be a 10. Well, let's say that it has been sent in six times and on the sixth time it was given the 10. Now if you compare this to a card that would be a 10 nine times out of ten, you'll definitely see that the latter card is superior. It's completely reasonable that if you mix the former card with a bunch of high end 9s, you won't guess which one caught the light just right to beat the odds and slide in to a 10 slab. There are also a bunch of cards on the border between 9 and 8. There is no way to stop this, unless you go to extremely precise grading, like the card above is a 9.48231 at which point it would be impossible to be accurate.
Bottom line is that there will always be high end 9s and low end 10s and some of the former will be nicer than some of the latter, and it would be the same if any of you were to open a grading service today and were the only grader.
I understand what you’re saying. But I don’t think there should ever be a low end 10. That grade should be reserved for cards that look spectacular.
What grade would you give this card ?
99x out of 100 it comes 65-35
Yours is 50/50 bullseye.
99x out of 100 it has multiple fish eyes.
Yours have a few.
99x out of 100 it has a black printers line down the back.
Yours has the line as well, but not as noticeable.
99x out of 100 the registration is weak. Yours is weak too.
Both cards have razor sharp corners and exquisite gloss and color.
What grades do you give ? Thanks
Lots of good points in this thread. I haven’t hit the agree button this much before.
For me, I will go after a nicely centered 9 all day. The price jump for a 10 makes most of them illogical to buy as a collector. Investor may be a different story.
I am glad PSA has chose not to use a 9.5 grade, and also a BGS black label equivalent. It is muddy enough now with the 9 and 10!
Nic
Guides Authored - Graded Card Scanning Guide PDF | History of the PSA Label PDF
PaulMaul: I think your PSA 9 looks better than my 10. It all comes down to the opinion of the grader.
Patrick
Both those Clemente IAs are gorgeous.
I sometimes ponder how this one would grade but I don't plan on finding out.
They’d be even more pretty if they had some black or blue ink on them.
Anyone have pics of signed Clemente’s
Bo couldn't carry Raquel's high heels, she couldn't even hold her hair back when she gets sick!
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Farrah is my hunting buddy.
Well I see this thread has gone sideways. Is that a deer stand or house extension, or both ?
Which one is a 9 and which gets a 10
@Goldenage - tower for hunting and observation. I see alot of cool happenings from it. Need to rip a pack in it sometime!!
Awesome. Love it. The boys from duck dynasty would be impressed, as would Larry Csonka.
I honestly don't get how the PSA cases allow the cards to move SO much, like the edges won't get dinged after years of handling and/or shipping. Especially with really colored edges like 63 or 71 Topps, etc. I think the SGC and green CSG holders protect the cards better. Thus I personally wouldn't value a 10 PSA all that much over a 9 to begin with.
Tonight the PSA 8/9 price differential was out in full force. A PSA 9 1973 Joe Morgan just sold for $2650. Didn’t look like a great example to me. Meanwhile, an 8 still seems to go for about $100. Mine was $58 less than two years ago.
The 9 is better centered but the top right corner and chipping on the left edge should have relegated that card to a 7/8 grade imo.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
My card is accurately graded because of the centering, but I am happy with it, and it sure seems like a relative bargain.
I was following that Morgan and surprised at the final hammer as well. Here is my 8.5 i picked up for 100 in April of 2020.
Totally agree with your assessment. Outside of the centering, that card was not 9 material.
@JBrules your 8.5 is way nicer than the 9.
Thanks. The bright borders and sharp corners on yours are amazing. If we could only combine the two together we would have a 9 for sure.
Here is my 1973 Joe Morgan PSA-9....
Your 9 is very very nice, but looks a bit short. Did you submit yourself?
That was my thought as well, and I hate that my mind goes to the nefarious first in situations like that. Not that mintonlypls did anything to it, but that someone in it's past may have. Hopefully not.
I measured it today with a 1/100 inch ruler...and it measures 2 1/2 x 3 1/2. It appears short because of how the card sits in the holder (to the left and to the bottom).
I inherited a 1/100 inch ruler from my Father who made pistons for the Ford Motor Company...so the measurements had to be that precise.
The card was previously owned by Brady Hill (a friend of Jeff Foy) who auctioned off his 1970s collection on Heritage Auctions a few years back.