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How will you determine if your stacking was successful?
cohodk
Posts: 18,621 ✭✭✭✭✭
These questions were inspired by another thread and derryb doesnt have to answer if he thinks any are too hard. There is no right or wrong answer.
Of course success is measured differently by everyone, but how will you know if your stacking efforts were successful?
Is there an end goal?
Is there some metric you use to measure how your situation would be different had you not stacked?
What happens next if you realized you had met that goal or success?
Do you currently feel your efforts have been successful?
Excuses are tools of the ignorant
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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Put one coin on top of another. Continue until the pile collapses. Success!!
I'm a stacker but I'm pretty lazy about it, so I'm a slacker stacker.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
@cohodk said:
They are simple questions that an actual stacker does not need to ask.
The same way I have known for years - they continue to maintain purchasing power in the face of a declining currency that initially purchased them. They are, once again, dollar insurance. Even now if I take the dollars I have left over at the end of the day and convert them to PMs, these currently high priced PMs will offer me future protection simply because the dollar will continue to buy less.
It;s a continuous process - protect the value of my savings.
Goal is continuously being met: Hold PMs, convert to cash as cash is needed. Just converted a 1964 quarter into a gallon of gas. What did you pay for your last gallon?
Yep, and they will continue to do so because I will continue to protect my wealth with the best available dollar insurance. Premiums on PMs are simply insurance premiums. Insurance premiums are currently high because fall of dollar is accelerating.
Hint: Stackers don't stack to make profit, they stack to break even. Inflation keeps a stack of dollars from doing the same. They have at their disposal speculative investment assets if they wish to also gamble with some of their wealth.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
It has served me in the purpose I intended it for - asset diversification.
MY GOLD TYPE SET https://pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/complete-type-sets/gold-type-set-12-piece-circulation-strikes-1839-1933/publishedset/321940
derryb and Downtown1974 answers are pretty much reflect mine. Use of precious metals as insurance has worked well for me through the years, and I see no reason to change the strategy. IMO should be part of anyone's financial assets plan for diversification.
"What happens next if you realized you had met that goal or success?"
Nothing. (or rather continue the strategy). Just as life continues to go on... one must continue to protect assets and plan for tomorrow, for as long as tomorrow comes.
When I was at a local B&M about 2 months ago and witnessed concerned if not panic buying of gold and silver on the news of rising gas prices, rising inflation, and the prospect of Russia invading Ukraine.
Standing there, watching three or four guys trying to figure out precious metals on the fly. Trying to make somewhat complicated life choices to protect their families, asking the wrong questions and trying to split paying for their order with a combination of cash and credit card.
We've all been there.
But you can't buy car insurance after the wreck. You can't buy health insurance after the diagnosis. And you sure as hell can't buy life insurance once you're in the ground.
I watched these guys and realized I wasn't panicking. I'm covered. I'll always want more: more age, more scarce, more interesting. But I don't need additional PMs to protect my other assets.
--Severian the Lame
Just can't stop trolling, can you?
Maybe time to start asking ourselves why PCGS continues to allow this person to shit all over their forums.
200k people decided to build a silver subreddit because they had nowhere to go. During a time in which gold and silver are more popular than ever and people were locked in their homes with nothing to do but use the internet.
But then this forum loses 50-100 quality contributors in just under 2 years. BST has ground to a halt during a modern gold rush.
Almost like the whole point of blitzdude and cohodk posting here is to chase people away.
But at the end of the day, this place is demonstrably worse off. PCGS has certainly lost the opportunity to engage 200,000 people.
Cohodk doesn't help beginners. He's not a merchant and he's not a nice person. So its almost as if PCGS has a vested interest in his disinformation and trolling.
I canceled my membership awhile ago and issued a charge back that was approved so, I've already walked away. I guess the question is how many more people will PCGS let walk away? How many more hundreds of thousands of potential customers will they let slip through their fingers?
But hey, as long as cohodk and blitzdude are still here, entertaining the like 8 or 10 people that are left. I guess PCGS prefers that.
Damn well said, Weiss!
I stacked, therefore I am.
I don't understand how a few trolls on the Forum would cause someone to cancel their PCGS membership. If they were that upset wouldn't they just stop visiting the forum? Or am I missing something?
Successful is
When it's still there if I need to get to it.
Success for me will be is that I never had to sell a single ounce (gold not gutter) and that it will pass on to the kids gooberment free. Oh and any gutter that may be lurking remains blast white and tone free. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
The guy who sells us the gold or silver accepts currency and then, he pays his bills. (gender neutral example)
If I get more than I pay, when a need be, then I've succeeded.
Success is i'm retired and I slowly sell off the many 5 gallon buckets of circulated 90% in exchange for cash ( paying no taxes to any government) . Bought in fiat at a lower cost with or without factoring in inflation. Because its infinity divisible I can throttle the flow however I desire. If I don't need cash I can stop selling , because its infinity divisible and condition doesnt matter I can find buyers more easily .
Ive done all the ground work , learned my lessons the hard way so i will remember them even in the depths of my future feeblemindedness, I have stopped buying stuff that wont be easy to exit unless its priced very well.
I am avoiding large dollar value per unit items now that may be harder to sell for cash in hand at a later date assuming higher spot prices in the future and or increased surveillance by an increasingly nosy and corrupt government
Of course success is measured differently by everyone, but how will you know if your stacking efforts were successful?
Is there an end goal?
My efforts have been very successful, based on the number of ounces being more than I ever expected they would be. My end goal was to make it to retirement with a nice pile of metal.
Is there some metric you use to measure how your situation would be different had you not stacked?
Nope, I evaluated all of the factors when I first started, and nothing has really changed.
What happens next if you realized you had met that goal or success?
See Bronco's response, above. Ditto that here.
Do you currently feel your efforts have been successful?
Yup.
the whole point of blitzdude and cohodk posting here is to chase people away
Not really. If you can't justify buying precious metals with solid reasons in the face of criticism, trolling and disparagement then you shouldn't be buying precious metals. Being able to compare and evaluate opposing points of view is critical to making good decisions in the first place.
I don't understand how a few trolls on the Forum would cause someone to cancel their PCGS membership.
I don't understand it either. Why would you need constant re-affirmation of your views to make important decisions? You should be seeking information from all sources, not just the ones that make you feel better.
Success is i'm retired and I slowly sell off the many 5 gallon buckets of circulated 90% in exchange for cash ( paying no taxes to any government) . Bought in fiat at a lower cost with or without factoring in inflation. Because its infinity divisible I can throttle the flow however I desire. If I don't need cash I can stop selling , because its infinity divisible and condition doesnt matter I can find buyers more easily .
Ive done all the ground work , learned my lessons the hard way so i will remember them even in the depths of my future feeblemindedness, I have stopped buying stuff that wont be easy to exit unless its priced very well.
I am avoiding large dollar value per unit items now that may be harder to sell for cash in hand at a later date assuming higher spot prices in the future and or increased surveillance by an increasingly nosy and corrupt government
Great answer, Bronco!
I knew it would happen.
I started stacking many years ago. Gold was in the $300/toz. range.... Have enjoyed watching it grow.... Yep, successful.... Highly liquid now, if needed. Cheers, RickO
Failure. Trying ... but they go separate ways instead of stacking up.
This place continues to get stranger by the day. Welcome back DerbyB.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Nothing wrong with opposing viewpoints .
What good is a forum where everyone agrees?
@cohodk In the spirit of the question, I have no idea. It's a moving target. Seriously, 20 years later.
Thanks for all your responses. Much appreciated.
Welcome back Azurescens.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Success for me is hold onto buying power over time. If the buying power increases all the better.
But how do you address those that argue that simply maintaining buying power is actually a loss and if the money had been invested in equities the buying power would have increased much more than it has with precious metals. The Dow has nearly tripled in the last 10 years while gold is up only 20%. That could be viewed as a failure.
dow would have been better, play them both, one for risk-free protection and one for risk-on investment. In the months to come do you think those in the dow with no gold will fare better than those in gold with no dow? I personally play equities with ETFs and hold dollar insurance in my safe.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I think timing is the key regarding success. I think those that played the Dow over the last 10 years, cash out now to buy gold will win over the next 10 years over those that purchased gold 10 years ago and didn’t participate in the Dow. That said those that don’t cash out before the equities bubble bust could end up begin the biggest losers.
There are more than enough people that lash out at others. I wouldn't try to single Cohodk out. I've seen him on the forum for years and I don't have a problem with him. I doubt there are more than a handful or 2 that do have issues with him.
Just because he says things that are contrarian to what someone wants to hear, doesn't mean he is the problem.
That said, I also have no problem with derryb.
I like both those guys and I know they don't see eye to eye in this area. To me, I don't care. I accept them both for who they are and neither one influences me in any way. I influence myself.
Your post about him is worse than anything I have seen him post, just FYI. I sincerely doubt your membership for submitting coins was predicated on this forum or any 1 person here. If it was, I feel sad for you.
For me, there are WAY WORSE people trolling the boards and being $#$#%*@&^ that I avoid or stay away from the forums so I don't see their stuff. Cohodk doesn't even come close to their levels.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
To answer the OP's question....
I'll know my stacking was successful when I am dead and if there is any still left over.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
Yep... that would be mission accomplished!
Stacking has been successful for me so far. Really looking forward to what the future might bring. The metals are a great place to be right now. imo
I think timing is the key regarding success. I think those that played the Dow over the last 10 years, cash out now to buy gold will win over the next 10 years over those that purchased gold 10 years ago and didn’t participate in the Dow.
True, but the stock market is about 99% dependent on the Fed and how much do you trust the Fed? There are two directly opposed opinions about whether or not the stock market is ready to implode. I think it's a matter of when, not if - but I'd have thought that it would've crashed long before now.
That said those that don’t cash out before the equities bubble bust could end up begin the biggest losers.
There is massive motivation by the banking system to keep the derivatives complex afloat. Mathematically, it simply can't continue. Weird stuff.
I knew it would happen.
I suspect as long as the prevailing attitude is money can keep being created as pleased... the stock market will be kept propped up. Especially in an election year.
Unfortunately, all of us common folks are 'paying' for it... in the rapidly rising inflation that now surrounds us.
Got gold? Got silver?
I'm wondering if the downfall will begin with Russia, China, India and other countries shift from doing business in dollars to gold, silver or some other currency backed by gold.
For the doom and gloomers Cohodk is a thorn in your side. You guys are so convinced of the SHTF event you prepare and prepare. Dave comes along and tells you it will be ok and is called a troll. I for one think his presence here is great. He keep you guys grounded and the board open to other ideas. If feel pretty much like what Bochi posted. And if I had to take financial advice from some one on this forum it would be him. I guessing here but I’d say as for being successful he in the top 10% (not to sure many others here are)
Yes I stack some just in case (insurance) not because I think it’s going to implode. It might know one knows.
Ask yourself this over the Last 20 years how many times have you said the sky is falling and how many times have you been right?
I don’t think I’ve herd Dave say it once. Some of you others well that’s another story
Martin
Fixed it for ya:
"Just in case?" Sounds like you're not convinced it "will be OK." lol
Those that warned of currency devaluation (yes, it's playing out) and advised a conversion of dollars to PMs have been proven correct. Those that warned of the inflation that would result from money printing have been proven correct.
Every time
the problem with coho and those like him is that those who see things differently are not entitled to an opinion without being labeled a gloom and doomer or unpatriotic. Unfortunately economic reality is not pretty and saying so is not a conspiracy theory, it is a warning. Heed or don't heed, but don't persecute those who correctly saw and continue to see what is now playing out.
A wise person here once said the chickens would come home to roost. They're here. Conspiracy theory once again becomes conspiracy reality.
The sky dollar is falling. lol
Case in point:
1n 1998 Brooksly Born, chairman of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) warned of the growing risk in the OTC derivatives markets ($29 Trillion at the time) and proposed that the CTFC be given regulatory oversight. Three powerful financial figures, FED chairman Greenspan, SEC chairman Levitt, and Treasury secretary Rubin, all testified before congress that it would be OK, the regulatory proposal was not needed and there was no great risk in the derivatives market.
They succeeded in painting Ms. Born as a "gloom and doom" alarmist and in convincing congress there was no threat/risk in the $29 trillion derivatives market. In 2008 the unregulated OTC derivatives market blew up (the Great Financial Crisis) proving the "grounded" financial experts were 100% wrong (or corrupt) and the rest is history.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
It's almost as if some people are clueless about the debt and government overspending on worthless and corrupt wars and social engineering projects.
As far as I can tell, math is still a hard science and rising interest rates won't be very helpful to either the bond market or the stock market. Inflation is at 40 year highs with no sign of slowing down and it was all preventable. The government mismanagement and corruption is epic, and there's not one person who won't be impacted in a negative way now.
But hey, everything is rainbows & pink unicorns if you close your eyes & ears and click your heels together 3 times with your fingers crossed on both hands. Don't prepare. Don't worry. Be happy. No problemo.
I knew it would happen.
How would you determine your stacking to be a failure?
That may be an even better question. Id be very interested in the responses. Mind if i pose that in another thread?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If a time comes, (cash needed for expenses for what ever reason, be it end of times, or just cashing out).... and there is no market for it and no one wants to buy it, or trade for it.
I guess we can turn that question around. How would you determine your 'insurance policy' to be a failure? If you never had to use your home insurance or your auto insurance for a claim.... was that insurance a failure?
Holding metals is part of diversification... some items in your portfolio hopefully will be successful, others may or may not. The purpose of diversification is to improve chances of success no matter what life scenarios take place.
By incorrectly establishing it as an investment instead of as dollar protection. There are and have been better investment vehicles. The purpose of holding gold is not the same as that with holding investments. Each serves a different purpose and most importantly a different master.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
How would you determine your stacking to be a failure?
If the entire planet shuns precious metals as valuable assets contrary to 5,000 years of human history, then I'd say I made a mistake.
I knew it would happen.
I want to hear the OP answer his own question as I like reading the comments from @cohodk
It certainly is a very dynamic question (S)
My first thoughts go to people who get an unexpected medical bill, and can liquidate some PM to cover - that's a success but maybe that same money used to buy the PMs would have grown 2x 3x or more in a money market - was your stacking efforts a success? Even though you didn't maximize your dollars, I say yes because you still generated the income to take care of business (and beating yourself up over what ifs is counterproductive)
A lot of people like to build up a "core stack" so the end goal may be some arbitrary number like "1000oz of silver" or "10oz of Gold"
When the goal is hit, then the goal post may be moved out, or maybe that person might move on to more specialized items like numismatics.
I have heard that a traditional portfolio should have about 5% PMs so that may be a goal for some.
Well as I said earlier, being a Monday morning quarterback can be counterproductive, but considering that I was buying silver in the 30s while the stock market was about 15000 and now the market is at 35000 and silver $25 well...
Lets say I dumped all moneys I bought silver and PMs with over the last ten years into the market, then I think I would have defiantly got a better return - I wont object to that.
I have met some stacking goals, which has caused me to focus less on stacking specifics, and more on what suits my fancy at the time.
I feel like I've been successful in broadening my knowledge of PMs and also learning more about my own tastes in the process. Early on when I was picking up multiples of 1/10th AGEs or rolls of Generic Silver Bullion I felt like that stuff was boring, so I got rid of it all and focused more on things I liked vs. what I thought was the best investment at the time - thats the collector in me I guess.
It's all about what the people want...
Do you really think he stacks? Likely stack pics of PMs.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
The OP has made threads saying he had begun to Aquire PMs in the past so no reason to not take that at face value
It's all about what the people want...
To derryb i would just ask him to read > @derryb said:
I do have a big stack of pics of derryb. Wanna see?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
At least someone pays attention.
And i appreciate your answers.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Whats the difference?
Truth.
Again, whats the difference?
The only master is oneself.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
seeking profit via speculation vs. wealth protection in the face of a loss of dollar purchasing power. One has much less risk, care to guess?
Oneself is the master of his PM dollar protection. Futures traders (and their puppeteers) are the master of one's attempt to use PMs for profit.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
What methods, policies, actions-and please be specific- would you have implemented/done to prevent this inflationary bout?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Equities, real estate, fine art, etc, do not protect wealth?
Please quantify "much less risk".
PMs are not speculative?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
A free market free of free money would have been a good start. lol
Methods, policies and actions (and a wee bit of corruption) are what got us here. Haven't you been paying attention? Free markets do not need management. They need only properly enforced, fair and sensible regulation.
Over time, more methods, policies and actions have created worsening boom/bust economic cycles. There would be no such roller coaster ride if the carnival operators were shut down.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
You rant but offer no specifics. Can we agree that the $7 trillion spent in various covid programs and the disruption of the supply/demand equation due to mandated govt shutdowns have led to this recent bout of inflation? If you agree, then what would you have done differently? If you disagree, then please offer your thoughts.
Were the economic cycles of the 1800s and early 1900s not much more volatile and chaotic than today? Ill, answer for you. Yes. Much more. Grab a history book.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
64 consecutive years of increasing debt have allowed economic downturns to be minimized, but at what future expense? Keynesianism, the prevailing economic theory during this time, suggests paying down debt when the economy is strong, which has not happened once in 64 years. And, in most of those years, debt increased by more than GDP.
If anything, the volatile economic cycles of long ago ended up with the economy returning to and rebuilding from a sustainable point. The inability to normalize interest rates over the past 2 decades, while larding up on government, corporate, and consumer debt does not and cannot end well. However, the game can probably go on for a while longer.