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Quarterly Specials are BACK.....sorta!!!
bobbyw8469
Posts: 7,139 ✭✭✭
I am glad to see the quarterly specials have returned. Granted, there are only two, and nothing close to what I want to submit, but it is at least a step in the right direction!! What is everyone's take on it?
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Step in the right direction for sure. I think we will see Quarterly Specials like 70s Football for under 20.00 by early 2023. The modern stuff is a different game.
Where? Can someone post the specials?
https://www.psacard.com/specials
Nic
Guides Authored - Graded Card Scanning Guide PDF | History of the PSA Label PDF
Yep....that would be them.
Ok, I wouldn't say that specials are back in any meaningful way. Wake me up when I can submit a card close to 20 bucks.
I might be wrong, but I don't think there were ever any problems with the submissions of autos to PSA/DNA and if I do recall, I am pretty sure there have been other PSA/DNA specials since this has all gone down.
Are you prepared to sleep that long. 😀
Nic
Guides Authored - Graded Card Scanning Guide PDF | History of the PSA Label PDF
Would it be ok to submit a Sandy Koufax signed ball under the special?
Sure am! I enjoy grading but have gained a whole new appreciation for a minty vintage card in a CS1 or an ultimate guard binder. More into collecting then ever.
Same!!! I have a ton of raw cards that I simply can not justify grading unless the price gets back down. I think this has killed the set registry thing they had going on. I recently snagged one of the $50 economy subs, and I am having a real hard time justifying the $50 price point. But I am trying.
I don’t think we will ever see $20 again. With that the Registry will die a slow death and I don’t think PSA really cares if it does anymore. It served its purpose at the time.
$20-$25 will be back when Value comes back online, that will be in line with the current pricing structure. I think you can kiss $10 and under goodbye though
I would not agree but still, are you sending in commons to get graded at even $20-25 a card? The Registry worked because the cost was not prohibited. $10 vs $20-25 is a 100-150% price increase for cards that have a value in most cases limited or lower than the cost to grade them.
I know they have said they would do something for Set Registry folks to justify some of those cards you mention Keyreader. Personally, I am waiting for that to come through. Even at a $20 price point, many of the cards I need to fill in Registry sets are pushing my ability to submit. I may have to be willing to go there or abandon the Registry at some point in the future. Figure I have quite some time before they reach that point. Given the demand they have now at a much higher price, not convinced I will ever be able to complete some of my registry sets. Until then, I will fill in some raw holes in binders.
If they can currently grade 800,000 cards per month at Newport Beach and are opening a new facility in NJ they will have to offer some $10 subs. What are they going to do....only have $100 subs and lay off 90% of the graders??? How many subs are currently going to PSA at the $100 level? It can't be 800,000 cards per month. If they only get down to 20-$25 they will completely lose the registry. 1960s and 70s commons will no longer be submitted. Heck many late 60s commons are not worth $10 in an 8. I personally know a bunch of people who were regular submitters that will not submit another card until the price comes down to under $15 and are perfectly fine without ever submitting again.
PSA president Kevin Lenane has stated that a $20 service level is very much a company goal. And as a member of the PSA Set Registry team I can say with 100% certainty that the Registry is going nowhere. It is growing at a rapid pace and we have hired several new employees who are dedicated to the Registry.
I have optimism that some lower-priced options will return. I think it comes down to business basics and math. Not tomorrow but in time. I sent in a submission about 14 months ago that is in QA1. I remember a few weeks later the price went up. And then maybe a week or two later all options came off the table. So when mine goes to ship, feels like there is another 5 weeks or so of old backlog. Sure a tsunami batch might be in there. But in time, and it may not be far off, the old backlog prior to the submission halt is off the table. A month, two months three months, however long it is, you reach that point and the well is extremely more dry if prices don't change. While you work that backlog, makes sense to only grade cards at 50 to 300 dollars a clip because there is plenty of work.
When that backlog dries up, what will there be? You go from working on catching up on this month of submissions that had 4 million submissions to this month that had zero. And sure you have some getting enthusiastic about $50 submissions but has to be a lot less work when those $12 a card submissions come off the table. I am confident there are a lot more $50 submissions now than some would think are reasonable. But eventually I think it shrinks and either way doubt it can compare to the old #s. I think some right now are just so excited about submitting again they are not applying great business sense to the decisions. Yes some people have a ton of nice cards lying around that are worth it but that has to dry up too. People are probably optimistic sending stuff in and spend $500 on some cards, pay $250 to grade them and get a graded box of cards back worth $400 because their estimates missed the mark. Then the interest cools off. Submissions decrease and at $50 a card you have like 10% of the submissions you had at $12 a card. There are just so many cards that are really worth sending in at $50 a card.
Now you could say, hey we like the profit margin on this $50 a card business we do. But if you can make more total profit by lowering fees and getting a ton more business, most everybody would do it. More profit is better than less profit. Even if one type of profit is prettier. I probably have 5 cards I would consider sending at $50 a card. But I have about 995 cards I would submit in the 10 to 20 dollar range. I am sure I am not alone. I think its bad business to leave my 995 card business and so many others on the table and never cash in. I am confident PSA recognizes that.
The additional space has already been rented. More people have been hired. More probably will be hired. At the top they will just make the decision, and it sounds as if they already have, if I lower fees and spend x more dollars can I make x +1 or more dollars. It very much seems like they can. So I would expect them to do so at the appropriate time.
Todd, I appreciate your response as always. I just have a hard time thinking people are submitting 1960's commons at $20 a card. Maybe other parts of the Registry $20 is a solid price; but not 1950's-70's commons for sets. Obviously, there are some commons that are quite valuable; but most are not. It should be a very interesting 12-18 months.
Yes, thanks, Todd. Very much looking forward to the continued expansion and waiting for the day I can work on some of my registry sets (or hoping the few cards that have been graded in some of the sets I am working find their way into the market).
Like many on this board, I have a huge stack of cards that are ready for grading once it hits the $20-25 range. Once PSA's east coast facility is ready to go and in full operation, we are talking about a capacity to grade up to 2.0 million cards per month (this is for both Socal and NJ site). Set registry folks will be part of the calculation, but at what price point? Only time will tell.
I have 140 T-206's that I would like to get graded. At current rates it's not economically
possible. Most would grade PSA 2-5. They're commons. At $20-$25 I would send them
in along with another 50-60 stars from the 1960-70 era.
They are not going to let the registry die. It’s been their baby forever and are very proud of it. All they have to do is tier it all out. For example with football it could be 1935-1959 is $10-$12. 1960-1989 is $13-$20 and all tiers would have the option of the up charge depending on the grade the card gets kinda like they have now. As far as ultra modern just leave it as is and make money there too.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
Still way too high for me at that range. Having collected vintage sets happily for 50 years has taught me to be very patient. This will pass.
Let a previous poster said, I submitted 4 at the $50 price point. I shuffled and shuffled through cards to even find 4 I was willing to send at that price. I have 3,852 more cards to go. And this isn't modern garbage or Pokemon's. All of it vintage. All of it desirable. Just not worth paying any more than $10 per. I never thought my raw card collection would be as big as it is. But it is. That is my reality right now. And I am OK with it. If they want my business, fine. I would love to give it to them. But it HAS to make sense financially for me.
not to mention when the cards that well respected auction houses and dealers call nm/mt that used to get 8's are now getting 6's or 7's the majority of the time I don't see any of this stuff getting submitted anytime soon.
If $20 is the goal and what management perceives as the new floor for grading then essentially everyone with pre-2000 stuff is out of luck
as much as we want to be collectors, this is not a cheap hobby. submitting cards where the graded value is worth less than the grading fee gets old very quick, not to mention that to acquire high quality raw cards is already an expensive proposition
We will be able to look back on this thread at some point in the future and laugh. Mark my words. When we're in the middle of a boom cycle, it's natural to think it will never end. It's hard for some to fathom that rates could ever get back down to $10 or even lower per card. However, when we hit a soft point in the market, filling that expanded grading capacity will be a challenge. Some submitters have already been flushed out. That would be newbies who jumped in during the pandemic by digging their EX-MT Griffey RCs out of the closet or garage and submitting at up to $100 a pop. It didn't take them long to learn that equation doesn't work as a money maker.
The one wild card is inflation. Depending on how high it goes, that could up the floor on grading fees. $10 in 2024 may be worth a whole lot less than $10 in 2019. In that scenario, grading fees may not drop as much but the resale values should hold up as the market floats with the inflation rate.
Exactly gemint. When dads were fighting over UD French hockey at a Costco in BF Saskatchewan no one thought the party would end. But it did, and this crazy run will end like all bubbles end, with a big pop and decreased demand.
And the hobby will be fine, but this madness has a lifespan and IMO we are past peak and on a slow melt.
Prices would drop faster if people would stop submitting and trying to find reasons to submit cards at $50 each.
I agree; but definitely have a few things to make you think.
If all of this will eventually slow down etc.... then why is PSA expanding their sports card grading to include a NJ office ??
I don't think there is any card grading going on in NJ. I could be wrong?
The NJ facility will expand their grading and authentication services.
https://www.psacard.com/articles/articleview/10617/collectors-holdings-leases-130-000-square-feet-harborside-jersey-city-from-veris-residential
Nic
Guides Authored - Graded Card Scanning Guide PDF | History of the PSA Label PDF
They lacked capacity before the boom. And I suspect there were some serious tax and logisp benefits to having an east coast presence.
IMO the hobby will be bigger then it was before the boom, but smaller then it was at peak. Considering PSA was running on fumes pre-boom, the NJ facility expansion makes sense even if the madness slows down.