Auction Prices are changing rapidly
gschwernk
Posts: 366 ✭✭✭✭✭
Auction prices seem to be changing at rapid pace. Do you find PCGS guide or CPG prices more accurately keeping pace with the changes?
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Unfortunately, you need to do your own independent analysis of what a fair value is in today's market.
I just saw a CAC AU55 coin go for a CAC MS65 price tag. The 65 is 10X the price of the 55. This was no "hail Mary," just 48 bids moving the price up at a steady pace. Hopefully it wasn't three Everyman collectors trying to win a 55 for their set.
I thought it would be nice to have; but, I didn't need it at that price.
Seems to be auction prices exceed normal buying prices! WHY? No idea, do people get involved in the Aura of bidding compared to the actual cost of the coin? Who knows.......
"When they can't find anything wrong with you, they create it!"
I posted this on the PCGS category. It is an exception to what you and I have seen as far as prices exceeding guide prices.
Here are the circumstances and what influence would they may have on the PCGS price guide.
one Jefferson 5c PCGS graded. population 35 in this grade, 2 higher, not counting full steps
two completed sales in last year, one at $400, one at $575
price guide lists as $285
the same coin that went for 400 last June I just got for 203
last years realized auction prices did not increase value in price guide, will my lower winning bid lower the guide value?
Did I get a good deal (I'm happy it completes a set I was working on) or did I set the bar lower and ensuing deals may be based on what I paid?
Unfortunately, the guide prices are what some Dealers are trying to still buy at. Sellers need to be cautious and watch out for the dishonest dealers out there. It is very hard to put an accurate price on a gold coin in PCGS holder with a CAC sticker. Auctions are crazy at this time. It has been a year since I won an auction.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Price guides are only the roughest benchmarks. In this market, we've come to: "it's a really nice PCGS/NGC CAC coin; if I want it I'm going to have to pony up, price guides be damned".
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't no optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
I agree, and my barn does not have as many pony's as some others
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Lol. Mine either.
People do seem to think that price guides are more definitive than they are. But they really are only going to be definitive for widgets.
Yup. I've become largely a bystander & observer. Like for many others, the market has pretty much moved out of my end of the pool.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't no optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
There are still things I could buy. I have a certain passion for medieval European coinage, for example, which is generally affordable. But even there the prices have increased to the point where, even though I could afford it, I'm left wondering if I should afford it.
Yet another validation of the old "Golden Rule". Those who have the gold make the rules.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't no optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
With the way prices are increasing, I can only stand on the sidelines and watch.
It has been almost a month since I purchased a coin.
I just cannot justify the expenditures.
The good part that comes out of this is that my wife likes the near zero balances on the credit cards.
Wayne
Kennedys are my quest...
How true.
I'm afraid I've added to the " moon money " auction prices paid. I've been watching to see if it affects guide price. I paid 90% over guide for the last coin needed to complete a set in ms67 ( moderns ) Been waiting for one to come up for sale for over two years. It hurt to pay that much but a completed set. Now I'm going to take a seat on the bench for awhile.
You can join me on the bench and we can watch the game together.
Wayne
Kennedys are my quest...
I am not accustomed to losing auctions much at all. But I have backed down half of the time on the lots pursued recently and that doesn't include the many that were out of range already well before the floor opened or the last day of online sales. Those I have selectively bid and won typically could not be characterized as bargains. But some coins just to not appear for years and you have to pony up the going rate when the opportunity knocks -- like when the market coaxes them out of hands that were not strong enough to resist. The guides cannot keep up with the market. Hell, I can't either.
Auction sales data with photo links are a good way to keep up.
Coinfacts app. etc
Sellers seem to be wanting to compete with Etsy pricing.
Wayne
Kennedys are my quest...