What Happened to the 1894 P Morgan Prices
coastaljerseyguy
Posts: 1,452 ✭✭✭✭✭
I started collecting Morgans around 2003 and a busy buyer up till about 2010. An everyman's collection, key dates VG - AU, semi-key VF - low MS, and common dates MS 62 - 64. Had the complete circulated collection and m any dupes. Use to update prices every few months, now it is like every other week with the jump in prices. 
Very pleased with the current market.
However there is only 1 coin I've lost money on, the 1894 P, and it's not because I made a bad purchase. I've kept all the old Greysheets and the March 2006 newsletter lists an XF bid $1,800 and $2,000 ask. That is about the time I bot. Looking at current auctions these range in general from $900 to $1,400. That's a 35% loss in value when everything else has gone up. Maybe the 94 MS+ coins have gained in value but the circulated 1894's have lost value.
What happened? When I look at EBAY there are more details holders then clean graded coins. Doesn't appear to be an oversupply. Was someone trying to corner the market back then and aggressively bid up the prices, or is there just no interest today in that date? Its the 2nd lowest mintage for the series. I'm stumped. The circulated 84-S have also not appreciated and just recently made it back to being flat compared to prices 15 years ago.
Your input greatly appreciated.
Comments
I think there are a lot of similarities between several dates, even the 1901-P. A couple of others that come to mind are the 1894-O, 1897-O, and 1904-S. All seem to have the same trend as you mention for the 1894-P. Demand is really the only thing I can think of. But, the money will be where the eye appeal is. Similar to the Barbers, find a nice coin in a slab and that will be worth far more than trash in a slab. Price guides are just that...guides.
Seems to me the 1884-s is a scary high minted coin that gets too much respect as a "rare coin" in high grade and people back away. None of them make the grade so it would seem. 1901-p another date that's so hard to get into a high grade assignment holder. Dean Taveneer called them 2 beer dollars and speculatied all have been in circulation for a very short time. Hence 2 beers time.
The 1894 is one of my favorites and I haven't lost a cent on coins grading AU 55 and above. I think the coin is way undervalued, goes to show how many collectors there really are out there, and it's overlooked just the same as the two above are paid too much homage. IMHO
I purchased a number very good coins during the period from 2008 to 2014. They included early gold (1795 to 1834) and other "blue chips." Most all of those coins have been financial losers.
I think that there are two facts at work. First, the demand has gone down. Most investors are not into collector coins, but "flipper coins." Many collectors seem to have moved on to something else. The period when I was buying seems to have been a bubble that has burst.
The second factor is grading. Grade-flation has upped the grades for many coins that were bought and sold back then. For example I have an 1808 quarter eagle that is in a PCGS Old Green Label (OGL) AU-50 holder. The value of that piece has dropped considerably since I bought it. The trouble is when I look at the few coins that are offered in the AU grades, none of them are as good as the coin I am holding.
One such piece that on the market before the pandemic was given an AU grade that I don't recall, but it had a distracting mark in the obverse field. I saw the piece at a Baltimore show and talked to the dealer about it. The dealer knew more than I expected about the coin I had. I guess there are not that many of these pieces are around, and the better ones tend to stick in people's minds.
He offered to trade the coin for my piece plus "a boot" that was a 5-figure number. I passed because all I would have had was a coin that I didn't like at a net price that was still too high.
So you see there are a number factors involved with the lower prices that you see.
My collection is not exactly the same as your's but very similar and the 1894 slabbed by PCGS graded as VG 08 has slipped from 975 USD in 2017 to 750$ currently.
https://www.pcgs.com/pricehistory#/?=7228-8
Baffled to say the least.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/quarters/PCGS-2020-quarter-quest/album/247091
You're right about the 84-S and 1901 P also, both key dates. I have both in AU 53 slabs (NGC & PCGS respectively) and am just breaking even with the recent appreciation. They were losers for many years. Funny thing, the XFs have appreciated (almost doubled) but the AU's have not. Luckily I have nice XF for both as I have a Dansco collection and a slabbed collection.
Buying coins are like buying automobiles, once you buy them they lose ~1/5 of their value...
I have both of these dates (94-P & 84-S) graded AU58 by our host.
First observation on the 94-P is that I see so many of these that are just plain ugly in one way or another. This includes low circs to MS examples. Cleaned, damaged, lack of luster, or other. They're available at a modest price for a low mintage, even as MS. Pop in PCGS in 60 or better are a total of 6490. My personal coin is an average, at best, example. I've been searching for an attractive MS62-64 for an upgrade but just cannot find the "right" one. I do believe that one day this date/mm will be more appreciated.
My 84-S is kind of a cool story. I was at the Baltimore Show way back in early to mid 2000's and stumbled across an NGC graded example in 58. Very prominent Morgan dealer, but I was concentrating on my PCGS Registry Set and knew it's much easier to "buy the coin in the holder" but went for it because I liked it that much. Sent for Crossover and got it first time. Should say something about my coin as this date/mm is NOT easy to get in a 58 holder by our host. LOTS and LOTS of 55 and 53 specimens are always available at any time. 58 not so much. Move forward to present times, for what I paid for it then, this coin has done well for me. 84-S really is a special coin in 58 or higher IMO.
How did the rest of the series do in this time frame?
... except for coins, you don't want to have them detailed.