Covid-Era Buyers Are Changing the Market - Online, Sight Unseen and PCGS/CAC - by Doug Winter

Zoins

Doug Winter has a great article on What's Hot and Not in the Rare Date Gold Market, but what really struck me was his description of the people driving the huge increases in the market:

a general reinvigoration of the market to a degree not seen in years

https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2021/12/22/what-was-hot-and-what-was-not-the-2021-rare-date-gold-market

A quick summary of new buyer characteristics:

1. unencumbered by the numismatic do’s and dont’s, which characterized pre-Covid collectors
2. more inclined to buy coins online than any other group of collectors in history, and online-focused retailers saw their businesses expand exponentially
3. no qualms about spending six or seven figures on a coin essentially sight-unseen which, in turn, made choice PCGS/CAC worth sizable premiums in many US gold series due to the fact that such coins tend to be more visually appealing than their unstickered counterparts.
4. an openness of collectors to focus on previously unloved mints and series (see below)
5. a move towards larger-sized coins which just looked more impressive to the new collector when seen on his/her screen
6. an influx of younger collectors who brought with them an aggressive collecting/investing strategy which was partly a spin-off of day trading, and crypto-currency trades

What do you think? Do these characteristics describe collectors in other areas as well?

The following is a short excerpt of the article. If you want to read about the gold market, please click through as Doug has a lot of great observations he discussions.

Doug Winter said:
One of the many Unintended Consequences of a Pandemic (2020-2021++ Version) was that with most people stuck at home for a substantial period of time, and with their average monthly bills slashed by significant percentages, coins were discovered/rediscovered by a large number of new buyers.

These buyers were mostly unencumbered by the numismatic do’s and dont’s, which characterized pre-Covid collectors. They were more inclined to buy coins online than any other group of collectors in history, and online-focused retailers saw their businesses expand exponentially. It also meant a new group of buyers who had no qualms about spending six or seven figures on a coin essentially sight-unseen which, in turn, made choice PCGS/CAC worth sizable premiums in many US gold series due to the fact that **such coins tend to be more visually appealing than their unstickered counterparts.

Other significant changes which are largely Due to Covid include an openness of collectors to focus on previously unloved mints and series (see below), a move towards larger-sized coins which just looked more impressive to the new collector when seen on his/her screen, an influx of younger collectors who brought with them an aggressive collecting/investing strategy which was partly a spin-off of day trading, and crypto-currency trades and, finally, a general reinvigoration of the market to a degree not seen in years.

CoinRaritiesOnline

5. a move towards larger-sized coins which just looked more impressive to the new collector when seen on his/her screen

Every coin image on our site is the exact same size (600x600) from Fractional Gold to Libertas Americana Medals. As far as I know, all other dealers and auction houses do it the same way.

I always thought this was a reason small coins tend to sell better on the internet than in hand for us.

As an aside, I at one point played around with the idea of representing the images in their correct relative sizes on the website, which turned out to be a monumental undertaking and looked horrendous in the mock ups we did back then.

Zoins

@CoinRaritiesOnline said:

5. a move towards larger-sized coins which just looked more impressive to the new collector when seen on his/her screen

Every coin image on our site is the exact same size (600x600) from Fractional Gold to Libertas Americana Medals. As far as I know, all other dealers and auction houses do it the same way.

I always thought this was a reason small coins tend to sell better on the internet than in hand for us.

As an aside, I at one point played around with the idea of representing the images in their correct relative sizes on the website, which turned out to be a monumental undertaking and looked horrendous in the mock ups we did back then.

That's a good note, but both you and Doug also show slab photos. While every slab photo may be 600x600 on your site, the coin inside will be automatically sized relative to the holder and each other.

Here's an example of what I see on your site now:

https://www.coinraritiesonline.com/our-coins/

ricko

The list of characteristics appears logical. I will say, that over the last several months, I have had inquiries from many non-collectors about gold coins. Some were interested in bullion, while others were inquiring about investment coins. Cheers, RickO

amwldcoin

Perhaps get some software like ebay uses for their pictures....where they can be zoomed and have a set thumbnail size. While my coins are not all to scale....I take the largest picture I can within the limitations of my camera. That results in probably quarter sized coins being the average with + or minus as the coins size is larger or smaller.

@CoinRaritiesOnline said:

5. a move towards larger-sized coins which just looked more impressive to the new collector when seen on his/her screen

Every coin image on our site is the exact same size (600x600) from Fractional Gold to Libertas Americana Medals. As far as I know, all other dealers and auction houses do it the same way.

I always thought this was a reason small coins tend to sell better on the internet than in hand for us.

As an aside, I at one point played around with the idea of representing the images in their correct relative sizes on the website, which turned out to be a monumental undertaking and looked horrendous in the mock ups we did back then.

Cougar1978

Online has been doing well for me. He makes some good points in his article.

silverpop

people like things that are not too complex and shopping online is pretty easy , choose from many items ,click, order, pay then wait for whatever you ordered to arrive simple and easy

thebeav

@Zoins said:

5. a move towards larger-sized coins which just looked more impressive to the new collector when seen on his/her screen

While anyone may say this is true in relation to their own business, I've seen quite a hot market for the past couple of years in California gold fractionals. I would have to say that coins really don't come any smaller. At least, widely collected coins......

MasonG

@Zoins said:
What do you think? Do these characteristics describe collectors in other areas as well?

3. no qualms about spending six or seven figures on a coin essentially sight-unseen which, in turn, made choice PCGS/CAC worth sizable premiums in many US gold series due to the fact that such coins tend to be more visually appealing than their unstickered counterparts.

I think this describes such a small selection of collectors that it is totally irrelevant to anybody not in that exclusive club.

FrankH

@CoinRaritiesOnline said:

5. a move towards larger-sized coins which just looked more impressive to the new collector when seen on his/her screen

Every coin image on our site is the exact same size (600x600) from Fractional Gold to Libertas Americana Medals. As far as I know, all other dealers and auction houses do it the same way.

I always thought this was a reason small coins tend to sell better on the internet than in hand for us.

As an aside, I at one point played around with the idea of representing the images in their correct relative sizes on the website, which turned out to be a monumental undertaking and looked horrendous in the mock ups we did back then.

When you image the coin AND the slab, it's easy to judge coin size. I wish more sites included the slabbed coin image.

ctf_error_coins

@FrankH said:

@CoinRaritiesOnline said:

5. a move towards larger-sized coins which just looked more impressive to the new collector when seen on his/her screen

Every coin image on our site is the exact same size (600x600) from Fractional Gold to Libertas Americana Medals. As far as I know, all other dealers and auction houses do it the same way.

I always thought this was a reason small coins tend to sell better on the internet than in hand for us.

As an aside, I at one point played around with the idea of representing the images in their correct relative sizes on the website, which turned out to be a monumental undertaking and looked horrendous in the mock ups we did back then.

When you image the coin AND the slab, it's easy to judge coin size. I wish more sites included the slabbed coin image.

All of my coins are slabbed and photographed

I include at least 4 photos of every coin, 2 glamor shots and two slab shots of the obverse and reverse.

I lead with the glamor shots. If a coin looks fantastic as a thumbnail image, then you are golden.

RYK

I am going to slightly disagree with the hypothesis. I do not believe that the "Covid era" has fundamentally changed the coin market, but instead, it has accelerated trends that were already in place. I say the same about carry out from restaurants, grocery delivery, telehealth visits, and many other other apparent changes since the pandemic started.

Justacommeman

FredF

It also meant a new group of buyers who had no qualms about spending six or seven figures on a coin essentially sight-unseen

I may be in the minority of collectors who cannot understand having six or seven figures to spend on a coin essentially sight unseen .

More seriously - there are people who used to spend money on fancy vacations, who now don't view it as safe to travel. They may have used to buy fancy cars, but supply chain those are disrupted too, and why buy a car if you're not leaving the house as much as before. So those folks now want to buy things because they can't buy experiences. Coins are really neat things (as all of us can attest). For the sake of the long-term health of the hobby, I hope that there are also more parents buying penny books for their kids and working on those because it's something you can do from your own house, but they just don't get written up in blog posts. COVID bringing more collectors into the hobby (and more dealers) would be making a little bit of lemonade out of all the lemons we've been handed the last 2 years.

I am curious though - coins seem to be hotter than 2 years ago, but not ridiculous - PCGS 3000 is up 16% since Jan 1, 2021 but are still well below 2015 levels. Sports cards are absolutely on fire. Our hosts put out a note early last year that their card division (PSA) received 3 month's worth of submissions in 3 days. They shut down accepting new submissions for a while, and currently the cheapest tier that is available is $100, for cards worth $1499 or less. Their competitors are in same boat. They are basically pricing customers out of the market because they can't keep up with the demand, so only the highest-end cards are getting certified now. Compare that to PCGS where we can submit Value or Economy tier. So to me, cards are way hotter than coins.

I wonder how stamps are doing? Anyone care about them?

jmlanzaf

@FredF said:

It also meant a new group of buyers who had no qualms about spending six or seven figures on a coin essentially sight-unseen

I may be in the minority of collectors who cannot understand having six or seven figures to spend on a coin essentially sight unseen .

More seriously - there are people who used to spend money on fancy vacations, who now don't view it as safe to travel. They may have used to buy fancy cars, but supply chain those are disrupted too, and why buy a car if you're not leaving the house as much as before. So those folks now want to buy things because they can't buy experiences. Coins are really neat things (as all of us can attest). For the sake of the long-term health of the hobby, I hope that there are also more parents buying penny books for their kids and working on those because it's something you can do from your own house, but they just don't get written up in blog posts. COVID bringing more collectors into the hobby (and more dealers) would be making a little bit of lemonade out of all the lemons we've been handed the last 2 years.

I am curious though - coins seem to be hotter than 2 years ago, but not ridiculous - PCGS 3000 is up 16% since Jan 1, 2021 but are still well below 2015 levels. Sports cards are absolutely on fire. Our hosts put out a note early last year that their card division (PSA) received 3 month's worth of submissions in 3 days. They shut down accepting new submissions for a while, and currently the cheapest tier that is available is $100, for cards worth $1499 or less. Their competitors are in same boat. They are basically pricing customers out of the market because they can't keep up with the demand, so only the highest-end cards are getting certified now. Compare that to PCGS where we can submit Value or Economy tier. So to me, cards are way hotter than coins.

I wonder how stamps are doing? Anyone care about them?

Stamps have actually been pretty hot. It has me reeling...

I used to struggle to get $100 for a White Plains sheet ($400 catalog value). I had two that I listed simultaneously with a $99 starting bid last week. Both of them got bid up over $200. That is literally double what I could have gotten for them 2 or 3 years ago.

Zoins

@RYK said:
I am going to slightly disagree with the hypothesis. I do not believe that the "Covid era" has fundamentally changed the coin market, but instead, it has accelerated trends that were already in place. I say the same about carry out from restaurants, grocery delivery, telehealth visits, and many other other apparent changes since the pandemic started.

I hear Doug is always looking for guest bloggers so you may have an opportunity to post a rebuttal there!

Zoins

@thebeav said:

@Zoins said:

5. a move towards larger-sized coins which just looked more impressive to the new collector when seen on his/her screen

While anyone may say this is true in relation to their own business, I've seen quite a hot market for the past couple of years in California gold fractionals. I would have to say that coins really don't come any smaller. At least, widely collected coins......

This is one of my favorite California gold fractionals:

1854 gold quarter
variety: BG-220 Defiant Eagle
grade: PCGS AU55 POP 1/3
Pedigree: William C. O'Connor, Wang Family

Looks huge in the TrueView, tiny in the slab!

2ltdjorn

seems to be just about everything today.

Realestate
vehicles
luxury goods

seems that coins wouldn't be immune. seems that the economics at play with rapidly accelerating wealth has expedited this. as people turn paper wealth into hard assets. seems smart. money is readily available, and cheap to borrow. it seems the cryptocurrencies and equities markets are playing major factors.

it will be interesting to see what kind of shape everything is in when when the tide goes out. seems like a rapid correction will be unavoidable and many of these tangible markets will take a beating.

wasn't alive then but I have heard stories regarding the markets in 1980s, it seems that the misnomer that quality pieces will only increase is a dangerous notion.

JimTyler

This is funny
“ more inclined to buy coins online than any other group of collectors in history, and online-focused retailers saw their businesses expand exponentially”
Group of collectors in HISTORY (that’s the funny part) the coin market during the second half of the 1980’s or ANY OTHER TIME would have been improved with on line opportunity.