Will History Repeat? [1990's Speculator bubble burst + MLB lockout compared with Today]
82FootballWaxMemorys
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Hi,
Some here may recall in 1993/1994 a huge Speculator fueled bubble bursting, then the 1994/1995 MLB lockout. A deadly sequence to Baseball cards at the time.
That was the "Junk Wax" era. Now we are in what some have dubbed the "Junk Slab" era. Will history repeat? Will the COVID Speculator/Market Manipulator/Flipper bubble burst coupled with a MLB lockout produce another bear market?
Say the MLB lockout turns very ugly and that it extends months into the season or more. Will interest in Baseball cards drop as it did in the mid-1990's? Will it hasten the Social Media Crowd absorbing losses then moving on to other things? Will cards from the last 20 years with high PSA 10 census populations free-fall in value?
Will Blurry's something-a-gram "buddy" with 100 1990 PSA 10 LEAF Frank Thomas' boldly continue to publicly brag about them? Sorry Blurry could not resist as you know that subject is a pet peeve of mine 
There are a lot of questions but all or none of what I have mentioned could easily occur. Will be curious to see. I for one will enjoy a bear market for Baseball cards assuming it extends to the PRE-Junk wax era. Unlike a lot of folks here I do not sell cards, so I say bring it on!
P.S. I do feel those who stand to lose fi$cally will attack these points with the most venom. We shall see...
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”–George Santayana
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Comments
Just my opinion, but back during that time, baseball was the main driving force in cards. Basketball, Football, etc. were still in the process of becoming the bigger guys to some extent. The price expolosion kind of started with basketball this time. Not to say prices may not drop some in the baseball category, but I dont think one sport would affect another as much this time
Agreed. A basketball lockout would have a far bigger effect. Baseball is a small slice of the $ in this bubble.
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
These asset bubbles always end the same way, the only difference being duration and velocity. Money supply is going to get tighter soon - money has been free, something like 1/3 of all dollars in circulation have been injected post Covid.
So ya, this thing will pop, and is popping.
Some major cards like 86 Jordan, depending on grade, are off 50 % from
ATH’s. But who cares really, I was collecting when the 90s bubble popped and will be collecting when this recent bubble pops.
Do Agree which is why my post focused on Baseball
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I say it will depend on what happens with Covid...the baseball lock-outs can be substituted with the shortened 2020 season. I do believe we are in the early stages of a value collapse with most categories of baseball cards being affected to one degree or another. The worst case scenario IMO would be if we do not find ourselves shut-in with nothing to spend money on (which was the case during 2020 covid land) while at the same time baseball willingly cuts off its own nose to spite its face.
As a baseball fan, the value of cards doesn't mean a whole lot to me as long as they play.
I am not sure. It seems like ultra-modern is overpriced to me, but I don't know much about it. I try to collect the vintage stuff, meaning pre-1994. haha!
Hopefully people are making smart purchases with funds they can afford to lose. After all, at the end of the day, it is supposed to be a _hobby _and not a boring business investment.
People aren't making smart purchases. They may be better off buying scratchers.
This comment makes me think that to some degree you think it is a temporary high market. Covid lingering for another year could prop it up a bit longer but I have to imagine things will be normal in two or three years at which time people spending will go back to usual patterns. Unless something has a materially changed long term regarding peoples desire to own sports cards then this is a bubble that will deflate at some point or another.
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
The only good thing about the upcoming lockout (and the inevitable price crash in baseball cards) is that it will weed out the "investors" who view the hobby as part of their portfolio instead of just a fun thing to do. Almost all the videos on YouTube discussing the hobby are about which cards to invest in and which ones they should get graded to make a profit on. So sad that there are so few true card collectors out there who just do it for the love of the hobby.
Investors and speculators killed my interest in this hobby for a good 20 years. I'll never collect like I once did, but I will work on completing sets from 1968 through 1970 just to bring back the memories of my youth. Investors will never kill my love for those sets and the memories of the fun we had collecting them such a long time ago...
Some postwar cards had a meteoric rise in price that didn't(won't) sustain simply because there are too many examples of them. 1986 Fleer Jordan's being an example of that. Heck, there are twenty six 1986 Fleer Jordan rookies in the current REA auction. 26. All high grade too.
For a comparison in that same auction there are:
Seven 1951 Bowman Willie Mays
Seven 1951 Bowman Mickey Mantle
Just one 1948 Swell Sport Thrills Jackie Robinson
PSA pop reports bear out similar numbers:
Over 20,000 1986 Fleer Jordan's having been graded
1,595 1951 Bowman Mays
1,829 1951 Bowman Mantle
138 1948 Swell Sport Thrills Jackie Robinson
Obviously demand plays the other role, but demand changes often, and when the supply numbers are so high, then huge downward prices can occur in the common cards such as a 1986 Fleer Jordan....and the opposite in cards that truly are harder to obtain, and that isn't even considering acceptable condition.
There are still bargains out there even in the covid price run up. I still can't seem to find bargains in the cards I've been bidding on. They are still super strong and increasing while cards like Jordan rookies have come back out of the stratosphere. When is that drop coming? I'm waiting for a few to drop as well...but they aren't. They are still rising.
However, that doesn't mean there will be another massive drop coming. The market has dipped overall...but the floor may be close overall. There certainly were many more collectors added recently, and while some of them will leave, many will without a doubt stay. That isn't counting the investors, but just more collectors.
Also, it has been a pleasant surprise to see a influx of more kids coming into the market. I haven't seen an influx in kids like this for a couple of decades. Many of those kids do treat it as a business, but that doesn't mean they will go away. It just means they will have more money to spend in fifteen years.
PS, I'm not sure what anyone else is seeing, but the covid locked up at home has been long gone. Everywhere I go it is crowded.
Amusement parks this past summer were jam packed. Cedar Point set record revenue number for third quarter of 2021. People were paying $150 just for a fast pass and those fast pass lines were 45 minute waits!. The regular line 2 hour waits.
TSA airplane daily throughput is at about 90% of pre covid.
Pandemics have lasted 18 months to two solid years. We seem to be in an age of extra caution where schools get cancelled if someone urinates on the side of the road and it creates hazardous travel....so this may stretch a little past two years.
But it has ended for most people already based on the crowds at typical places. The people staying home are most likely at home types anyway for the most part. For the most part.
For the folks who are in it for the money, it’s a gamble. For those who are in it for the cards, it’s a hobby.
Simple, but easy to forget.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
As I always say when this topic comes up over the years, it all depends what cards one is talking about.
Within the general card hobby there are so many different types of cards that behave from a pricing standpoint in wildly different ways.
The post 1980 high pop "condition rarities" could soften at some point (though I don't see the lockout being the catalyst).
The really high end material— rarely centered, high-demand cards (think Ruth & Gehrig Goudeys, Clemente RC, Mantle 51/52T, Jackie Leaf), low pop stuff (whether it is a 1917 Ruth, Cracker Jack Mathewson, Joe Jackson, or signed 1950’s Mantle)… I have been rooting for lower prices for a long time now, and sadly I just see competition keeping things where they are, or for an exceptionally pretty card setting a new high here and there. If someone is dreaming of and pining for an Uncle Jimmy Ruth auto, and one hits the auction block, let’s just say the lockout will not dampen bidder enthusiasm. In the same way, if two Registry guys come across some low pop condition rarity they want, they may be the only two after it but again it’s a safe bet they will be immune to any lockout hangover
What about the belief/fact -- I'm not qualified to say which it is -- that collectibles are good hedges against inflation? I am hoping that there are at least one or two people out there who are expert enough to address this, but it seems to me that the belief among some/many that one should purchase collectibles during times of inflation might prove to be a significant factor. Perhaps the bubble will burst more slowly because by coincidence we're now experiencing inflation?
It makes me glad i am just a collector, not an investor. In fact, I would appreciate much lower prices. It would just mean more cards for me!!
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Strike, not lockout. The players refused to continue playing, hence it was a strike. A lockout is where the owners won't let them play.
D's: 54S,53P,50P,49S,45D+S,44S,43D,41S,40D+S,39D+S,38D+S,37D+S,36S,35D+S,all 16-34's
Q's: 52S,47S,46S,40S,39S,38S,37D+S,36D+S,35D,34D,32D+S
74T: 37,38,47,151,193,241,435,570,610,654,655 97 Finest silver: 115,135,139,145,310
73T:31,55,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,80,152,165,189,213,235,237,257,341,344,377,379,390,422,433,453,480,497,545,554,563,580,606,613,630
95 Ultra GM Sets: Golden Prospects,HR Kings,On-Base Leaders,Power Plus,RBI Kings,Rising Stars
Agree, 100%. I have been slow on the buy trigger for a while now but there are lots of things I would like. I basically paused my Red Sox Team HOF project because of prices going too high for the kind of card i was looking for. If there was a correction, I would be very happy about it.
Whenever you are hoping or thinking about there being a correction, it doesn't happen and whenever you are hoping there isn't a correction or not fathoming a correction, it happens. That's my opinion.
Curious, is it the cards you enjoy or the memories? They're linked, of course, but what fuels your passion?
"You've gotta be a man to play this game...but you'd better have a lot of little boy in you, too"--Roy Campanella
Shoot I had thought the bubble had already burst! On many of my cards it sure has.
It is getting ugly out there.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
All depends on perspective I suppose. I hate to see the prices dropping on the ultra modern cards that I am selling but I like seeing the price drop on vintage that I am buying. Can’t have it both ways I suppose. Most of the ultra modern I’m receiving back from PSA are still selling higher than they were when I submitted them a year ago. All of mine are baseball though, not sure how other sports are doing. I know basketball was the big winner earlier in the year but a lot of people were speculating it would yank because so many were submitted, 2019 in particular.
I’m curious as to everyone’s thoughts on how all of this might affect vintage. I think it’s safe to say we will continue to see prices fall on ultra modern because the card manufacturers are repeating what they did in the late 80s early 90s. But I BELIEVE vintage will maintain its current prices and continue to rise over time. Sure would be nice to know for sure because if I knew prices would come down I would hold off buying for a while!! Been working on completing the 1956 Topps Hall of Fame set on the registry. More than a few of those are very pricey even in mid grades and a couple are pricey in the lowest grade. It would be nice to pick up a few of those at half of the current price!
The modern market is driven by football and basketball. I don't see the MLB lockout having much of an impact.
1969 Topps was the first set I collected. I had a cousin give me hundreds of 1968 Topps in early 1969 and that got me going. My love for baseball was behind it all, of course. I have great memories of all the sets from 1968 to 1971, so those are the sets I will work on in the future
To me, it's the memories of watching the players on the cards. Greats like Yaz in his prime, Mays and Clemente past their prime, but still amazing players to watch. It's also the memory of my parents buying my brother and I thousands of cards, even though we were dirt poor. You never realize how much your parents sacrificed for your happiness until you're older and they're long gone. By then, it's too late to thank them.
Lastly, it's the memories of my childhood friends that I used to pitch and trade cards with. Haven't seen most of them in decades and some are no longer alive, but I'll always remember the fun we had back then. Remember the ending of "Stand by Me?" “I never had any friends later on like the ones I had when I was 12. Jesus, does anyone?” So true...
Baseball cards are not subject to typical economic law because they are not really a typical good.
They do have some similarities, though, and it’s important to recognize that if you think of it as a legal investment then you should treat it as such: set goals, be emotionless and remember the time value of money. Playing penny stocks vs blue chip, day trading vs portfolio building, deciding what is market manipulation and what is market movement, etc.
There are almost no linear investments - the value of an investment changes every day and goes up and down in both predictable AND unpredictable patterns. Property, stocks, bonds, cards - they all compete for investment dollars and various factors impact value accordingly.
If you own a home right now, the ‘equity you have in the home’ is probably dependent upon when you bought it - 2000 vs 2010 vs 2020? Property values soared, crashed, and have come back pretty good now. Conventional wisdom says you do well on a home you keep 30 years or more and pay off completely but like everything else, there are no guarantees and a lot depends on when you bought in.
Inflation occurs when goods are more expensive while, at the same time, the purchasing power of your dollar is less. The double edged sword is that baseball card market is more Veblen good (think diamonds) than staple good (think food, water, shelter) and so the desire and ability to purchase them will almost certainly contract the market (number of participants) which is now trying to stretch their dollars.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
Interesting analysis. Thanks.
Simple economics. Inflation raises the cost of the items you need (food, fuel, etc.), so most have less disposable income. That hurts the value of all collectibles, due to less demand. Prices will definitely go down in this current economy.
That makes sense for the “end user.” However, investors also see collectibles as in the same asset class as precious metals, due to their fixed supply and not being primarily driven by intrinsic value. Such assets are usually viewed as hedges against inflation.