Why the $2 trillion crypto market crash won't kill the economy.
This really puts it in perspective. Such a loss in such a short time for something that was relatively new means two things to me: PerryHall's use of the term "Ponzi Scheme" rings true, noone will be willing to admit it but people lost a lot of value if not their shirt in the last year.
@Maywood said: Why the $2 trillion crypto market crash won't kill the economy.
.
i truly hope that is true. it was one of my grave concerns, especially considering what the heck we just went through/are going through. (virus, racial issues etc) made my commentary about this in the other crypto thread.
fwiw, there is/was plenty of money to be made in 2021 (REALLY good) and this year with half the year still left. i've seen so many 2x through 10x+ this year it is amazing, let alone last year. 2021 for anyone in at the beginning with previous investing experience and $5-20k to start with, doing some semi-day trading, WOW. many fortunes were made (and some were lost) for sure one would have taken some losses but if done within a degree of reason, one would have done quite well. i didn't wake up to it until right of the middle of the november spike. (one p2e game was yielding from several hundred to several thousand dollars per day) then after november, everything changed for nearly the entire sector. one major glideslope down.
to be fair, even markets where 5%, 10%, 20% etc are really really good imo. those 2x-10x really gets one out of touch with reality and is obviously NOT sustainable. that is how stablecoins end up crashing. promising unrealistic long-term returns (not to mention people managing the funds that have no business doing so)
Has anyone considered that us old farts (unless we are rich AF old farts) cannot take the same risks as young people? We simply do not have the time to recover from major reversals. The OP has blinders on.
Risk at 30 years old makes a lot of sense. Not at 62.
@Rondor said:
Has anyone considered that us old farts (unless we are rich AF old farts) cannot take the same risks as young people? We simply do not have the time to recover from major reversals. The OP has blinders on.
Risk at 30 years old makes a lot of sense. Not at 62.
the beauty of being rich AF. more capital = less profit % required and therefore less risk.
personally, i'd rather have 10-50 mil to work with at 1-5% with virtually no risk (i woudn't have ALL my capital invested in stocks/crypto etc but a lot in also manufacturing, real estate, tangible goods/services etc) with at least 1/4 untouched as a slow low-yield nest egg with a strong cash reserve sitting idle and available for unique opportunities VS 10k-100k going for 2x, 5x etc because it takes MUCH more talent, risk, discipline etc. imo
once one pays off a house or two, a car or two, get the kids safely/securely into young adulthood, there really aren't any major reasonable expenses that need a big income. (healthcare, security and a couple others aside) especially if large amounts are earning even low-yield.
It's make believe money that was used by scammers in a Ponzi scheme using the greater fool theory that is now in the final stages of collapse.
I’m not sure we are in the final stages of collapse yet as there are many people that still seem eager to catch a falling knife. I agree with your sentiment, the ultimate fate of crypto “currencies,” and the rest of your post.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
"In the chaos, Celsius, a major crypto staking and lending firm, shocked the market when it announced that all withdrawals, swaps and transfers between accounts have been paused due to “extreme market conditions.” In a memo addressed to the Celsius Community, the platform also said the move was designed to “stabilize liquidity and operations.”
Translation: "We are saving our own arses first... no soup for you". What a mess....
You pays your money and you takes your chances. Must be quite a ride. I never have taken, and never will take part in that scheme; it's beyond my ability to adequately assess.
It's make believe money that was used by scammers in a Ponzi scheme using the greater fool theory that is now in the final stages of collapse.
Is real money really money anymore?
Real money is really money. Crypto is not. It’s going to take a while after crypto collapses for some people to get their minds straightened out from the years-long bull they have been fed.
Lot of schadenfreude on the forum, particularly when any new ideas come around that need squashing.
Although I don’t have holdings in crypto (probably because I spend too much time studying coins), I try to keep an open mind about new concepts. And I think that crypto, though flawed, is interesting. I also think news of its demise is a bit premature. If I wasn’t so broke from Hendricks/Fairmont, I might try to grab a little of the BTC falling knife.
But have at it and enjoy your “told you so’s.” From a purely selfish standpoint, I am more interested in what effect BTC’s fall will have on the coin market. ANA in August May be a good barometer.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
@Nysoto said:
Big sale going on with crypto. For the old guys who were skeptical when bitcoin was $63,000 last November, is it a good buy now at 19,000? Or will it fall a lot further?
Well, it's worth zero. So, I'm guessing it'll drop a bit more.
But hey, unicorn f*rts and rainbows!
@breakdown said:
Lot of schadenfreude on the forum, particularly when any new ideas come around that need squashing.
Although I don’t have holdings in crypto (probably because I spend too much time studying coins), I try to keep an open mind about new concepts. And I think that crypto, though flawed, is interesting. I also think news of its demise is a bit premature. If I wasn’t so broke from Hendricks/Fairmont, I might try to grab a little of the BTC falling knife.
But have at it and enjoy your “told you so’s.” From a purely selfish standpoint, I am more interested in what effect BTC’s fall will have on the coin market. ANA in August May be a good barometer.
Agreed. Further, alot of people did make money from crypto. Alot of money. These are people who bought it at $500, $1000 , etc when people called them nuts. Sure the ones who jumped in late have taken a hit (ignoring buy low, sell high)
What i would like to know is how much money was made by those crowing about crypto going down in the last few months----did they own stock? Bonds?
Anyone can sit around and blast others after the fact---those who are ahead of the crowd whether it be crypto , coins or anything else get my admiration.
Scary thing is that all the kiddies that thought crypto was their path to success in life without, you know, doing any actual work, will probably shy away from ANY real investing in the future.
When you mine gold from the ground you create new wealth. Not so with crypto currency. Every dollar that one person “made” on a crypto currency came from some other person’s accumulated wealth. It is a zero sum game. For every winner there is a loser.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
@CaptHenway said:
When you mine gold from the ground you create new wealth. Not so with crypto currency. Every dollar that one person “made” on a crypto currency came from some other person’s accumulated wealth. It is a zero sum game. For every winner there is a loser.
No, but you already knew that. It's interesting that some members are a little upset that others criticize Bitcoin but they don't seem to care that thousands of people have lost a great deal of money, then they want to use cute German words.
Er, ah, well, the US dollar is backed by all of the economic output (and of course tnotes and debt) in the USA (and global) to trade that output, so........
Whereas, crypto? What backs it? Hmm....
Er, ah, well, not much but some speculators that love to sell snake oil. Is it theoretically possible that a crypto could come along and have honest and pure intentions to be a true mechanism of value exchange but the ponzi pushers seem to have taken control of them so far.
Er, ah, well, the US dollar is backed by all of the economic output (and of course tnotes and debt) in the USA (and global) to trade that output, so........
Whereas, crypto? What backs it? Hmm....
Er, ah, well, not much but some speculators that love to sell snake oil. Is it theoretically possible that a crypto could come along and have honest and pure intentions to be a true mechanism of value exchange but the ponzi pushers seem to have taken control of them so far.
So what happens if the US becomes insolvent? Do we have to fight off the foreign debt collectors by our selves?
No, but you already knew that. It's interesting that some members are a little upset that others criticize Bitcoin but they don't seem to care that thousands of people have lost a great deal of money, then they want to use cute German words.
Thousands of people have lost money on dollars, rare coins, gold and stocks... and so...
The main innovation of Bitcoin is uncensorable sound money. It is better than gold because it's digital, so it's cheap to hold, cheap to store, and cheap to transfer. It can't be easily confiscated because people can store it themselves without relying on a third party. The money supply is fixed, so it can't be inflated like US dollars. And no one can stop you from sending your bitcoins to anyone else, because Bitcoin is not controlled by a company or a government.
The amount of value created by Bitcoin is a few hundred billion dollars today. It's not a zero sum game. That said, there definitely are a lot of scams and ponzis in crypto. This crash will flush out a lot of these scams. But Bitcoin will come back stronger than ever in the future because nothing has really changed. Bitcoin is still the best form of money we have ever seen in history.
One of the most prominent crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670 million
Digital asset brokerage Voyager Digital issued a notice on Monday morning, stating that the fund failed to repay a loan of $350 million in the U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDC, and another 15,250 bitcoin, worth about $323 million at today's prices.
@vulcanize said:
Are the wheels slowly starting to come off?
One of the most prominent crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670 million
Digital asset brokerage Voyager Digital issued a notice on Monday morning, stating that the fund failed to repay a loan of $350 million in the U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDC, and another 15,250 bitcoin, worth about $323 million at today's prices.
@vulcanize said:
Are the wheels slowly starting to come off?
One of the most prominent crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670 million
Digital asset brokerage Voyager Digital issued a notice on Monday morning, stating that the fund failed to repay a loan of $350 million in the U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDC, and another 15,250 bitcoin, worth about $323 million at today's prices.
And when a stock hedge fund does the same, is it the end of the stock market?
These defaults are concerning because the fundamental underpinnings of the tokens are spurious. There are too many and some will fail and which chairs will be there when the music stops?
As Gensler said this am the promoters are saying come hither and the SEC is treating some of these as commodities not securities.
Some people are going to get hurt and that will be shameful.
This is not 2008 when gov came in to save the banks.
@vulcanize said:
Are the wheels slowly starting to come off?
One of the most prominent crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670 million
Digital asset brokerage Voyager Digital issued a notice on Monday morning, stating that the fund failed to repay a loan of $350 million in the U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDC, and another 15,250 bitcoin, worth about $323 million at today's prices.
And when a stock hedge fund does the same, is it the end of the stock market?
These defaults are concerning because the fundamental underpinnings of the tokens are spurious. There are too many and some will fail and which chairs will be there when the music stops?
As Gensler said this am the promoters are saying come hither and the SEC is treating some of these as commodities not securities.
Some people are going to get hurt and that will be shameful.
This is not 2008 when gov came in to save the banks.
THIS default is one hedge fund that may have been over leveraged. $670 million in a trillion dollar market.
I'd be more concerned about the effect of Russian defaults on hedge funds. But even that is a small number.
" Bitcoin is still the best form of money we have ever seen in history.">
$20 Double eagles were a close second. You could spend them, store your wealth with them, and lastly, collect them as little pieces of treasure and art.
" Bitcoin is still the best form of money we have ever seen in history.">
$20 Double eagles were a close second. You could spend them, store your wealth with them, and lastly, collect them as little pieces of treasure and art.
Yup, agreed. Gold in the form of double eagles is definitely good money.
And when a stock hedge fund does the same, is it the end of the stock market?
Will have to wait and see.
The dot com bust of 2000/2001 and the market meltdown of 2008 was a domino effect of many such smaller enterprises going belly up.
Add to it the global shift spearheaded by BRICS (Iran and Argentina have applied to join that bandwagon)
.
this probably isn't the forum to comment on such stuff but i HAVE to say, this is more than i can say for most...
"Volt Bank announced on Wednesday it was closing its deposit taking business and will return its banking license after it couldn't raise enough funds to stay afloat"
Comments
I'm an old fart, What's crypto?
It's make believe money that was used by scammers in a Ponzi scheme using the greater fool theory that is now in the final stages of collapse.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Is real money really money anymore?
Why the $2 trillion crypto market crash won't kill the economy.
This really puts it in perspective. Such a loss in such a short time for something that was relatively new means two things to me: PerryHall's use of the term "Ponzi Scheme" rings true, noone will be willing to admit it but people lost a lot of value if not their shirt in the last year.
.
i truly hope that is true. it was one of my grave concerns, especially considering what the heck we just went through/are going through. (virus, racial issues etc) made my commentary about this in the other crypto thread.
fwiw, there is/was plenty of money to be made in 2021 (REALLY good) and this year with half the year still left. i've seen so many 2x through 10x+ this year it is amazing, let alone last year. 2021 for anyone in at the beginning with previous investing experience and $5-20k to start with, doing some semi-day trading, WOW. many fortunes were made (and some were lost) for sure one would have taken some losses but if done within a degree of reason, one would have done quite well. i didn't wake up to it until right of the middle of the november spike. (one p2e game was yielding from several hundred to several thousand dollars per day) then after november, everything changed for nearly the entire sector. one major glideslope down.
to be fair, even markets where 5%, 10%, 20% etc are really really good imo. those 2x-10x really gets one out of touch with reality and is obviously NOT sustainable. that is how stablecoins end up crashing. promising unrealistic long-term returns (not to mention people managing the funds that have no business doing so)
ok, tired, yammering. i'm out.
Has anyone considered that us old farts (unless we are rich AF old farts) cannot take the same risks as young people? We simply do not have the time to recover from major reversals. The OP has blinders on.
Risk at 30 years old makes a lot of sense. Not at 62.
the beauty of being rich AF. more capital = less profit % required and therefore less risk.
personally, i'd rather have 10-50 mil to work with at 1-5% with virtually no risk (i woudn't have ALL my capital invested in stocks/crypto etc but a lot in also manufacturing, real estate, tangible goods/services etc) with at least 1/4 untouched as a slow low-yield nest egg with a strong cash reserve sitting idle and available for unique opportunities VS 10k-100k going for 2x, 5x etc because it takes MUCH more talent, risk, discipline etc. imo
once one pays off a house or two, a car or two, get the kids safely/securely into young adulthood, there really aren't any major reasonable expenses that need a big income. (healthcare, security and a couple others aside) especially if large amounts are earning even low-yield.
I’m not sure we are in the final stages of collapse yet as there are many people that still seem eager to catch a falling knife. I agree with your sentiment, the ultimate fate of crypto “currencies,” and the rest of your post.
THis article contains a term I had not heard before: "CRYPTO WINTER."
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/18/bitcoin-price-drops-below-18600-as-sell-off-accelerates.html
Sounds appropriate.
Is Jon Snow going to save us?
.
hey, he is a Targaryen TYVM! even Drogon confirmed.
wow this thread was unlocked.
"In the chaos, Celsius, a major crypto staking and lending firm, shocked the market when it announced that all withdrawals, swaps and transfers between accounts have been paused due to “extreme market conditions.” In a memo addressed to the Celsius Community, the platform also said the move was designed to “stabilize liquidity and operations.”
Translation: "We are saving our own arses first... no soup for you". What a mess....
You pays your money and you takes your chances. Must be quite a ride. I never have taken, and never will take part in that scheme; it's beyond my ability to adequately assess.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't an optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
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Real money is really money. Crypto is not. It’s going to take a while after crypto collapses for some people to get their minds straightened out from the years-long bull they have been fed.
Old proverb says:
“Easy money flies on wings”
Happy, humble, honored and proud recipient of the “You Suck” award 10/22/2014
I’m guessing it is derived from the phrase nuclear winter in reference to the fallout of a catastrophic event.
this go around, I'm investing in liquor, cigarettes, bottled water and boxes of ammo
Lot of schadenfreude on the forum, particularly when any new ideas come around that need squashing.
Although I don’t have holdings in crypto (probably because I spend too much time studying coins), I try to keep an open mind about new concepts. And I think that crypto, though flawed, is interesting. I also think news of its demise is a bit premature. If I wasn’t so broke from Hendricks/Fairmont, I might try to grab a little of the BTC falling knife.
But have at it and enjoy your “told you so’s.” From a purely selfish standpoint, I am more interested in what effect BTC’s fall will have on the coin market. ANA in August May be a good barometer.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
Well, it's worth zero. So, I'm guessing it'll drop a bit more.
But hey, unicorn f*rts and rainbows!
Agreed. Further, alot of people did make money from crypto. Alot of money. These are people who bought it at $500, $1000 , etc when people called them nuts. Sure the ones who jumped in late have taken a hit (ignoring buy low, sell high)
What i would like to know is how much money was made by those crowing about crypto going down in the last few months----did they own stock? Bonds?
Anyone can sit around and blast others after the fact---those who are ahead of the crowd whether it be crypto , coins or anything else get my admiration.
crypto/nft are ok, just gotta watch out for:
Crypto synonym:
Ponzi, so no surprise at the latest..................... Or another synonym - scam.
Successful transactions with-Boosibri,lkeigwin,TomB,Broadstruck,coinsarefun,Type2,jom,ProfLiz, UltraHighRelief,Barndog,EXOJUNKIE,ldhair,fivecents,paesan,Crusty...
Clypto currency where one can get "clipped".
The Mysterious Egyptian Magic Coin
Coins in Movies
Coins on Television
i wonder what the total range of loss would be between, rugs, hacks, collapses (to fractions of a cent per), decline etc?
for me, i do at least 2 categories of loss; investment and equity.
Scary thing is that all the kiddies that thought crypto was their path to success in life without, you know, doing any actual work, will probably shy away from ANY real investing in the future.
When you mine gold from the ground you create new wealth. Not so with crypto currency. Every dollar that one person “made” on a crypto currency came from some other person’s accumulated wealth. It is a zero sum game. For every winner there is a loser.
Not to mention the TOTAL waste of energy...
Agree. It's sad to see there are a few slow learners here are in denial and I don't mean the river in Egypt.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
So are US dollars a ponzi scheme?
So are US dollars a ponzi scheme?
No, but you already knew that. It's interesting that some members are a little upset that others criticize Bitcoin but they don't seem to care that thousands of people have lost a great deal of money, then they want to use cute German words.
Er, ah, well, the US dollar is backed by all of the economic output (and of course tnotes and debt) in the USA (and global) to trade that output, so........
Whereas, crypto? What backs it? Hmm....
Er, ah, well, not much but some speculators that love to sell snake oil. Is it theoretically possible that a crypto could come along and have honest and pure intentions to be a true mechanism of value exchange but the ponzi pushers seem to have taken control of them so far.
Successful transactions with-Boosibri,lkeigwin,TomB,Broadstruck,coinsarefun,Type2,jom,ProfLiz, UltraHighRelief,Barndog,EXOJUNKIE,ldhair,fivecents,paesan,Crusty...
So what happens if the US becomes insolvent? Do we have to fight off the foreign debt collectors by our selves?
*Klepto Currency
fka renman95, Sep 2005, 7,000 posts
Jim Cramer had it nailed from the start: it's a "nothingburger"
Has this been said already?
The entire point of Crypto is to profit off of somebody else's losses.
If you can live with that as a model, well, you'll probably get what's coming to you.
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
Thousands of people have lost money on dollars, rare coins, gold and stocks... and so...
That is not at all the point of crypto. Some cryptos are tied to actual useful activities. I think more research is in order.
The main innovation of Bitcoin is uncensorable sound money. It is better than gold because it's digital, so it's cheap to hold, cheap to store, and cheap to transfer. It can't be easily confiscated because people can store it themselves without relying on a third party. The money supply is fixed, so it can't be inflated like US dollars. And no one can stop you from sending your bitcoins to anyone else, because Bitcoin is not controlled by a company or a government.
The amount of value created by Bitcoin is a few hundred billion dollars today. It's not a zero sum game. That said, there definitely are a lot of scams and ponzis in crypto. This crash will flush out a lot of these scams. But Bitcoin will come back stronger than ever in the future because nothing has really changed. Bitcoin is still the best form of money we have ever seen in history.
Follow me on MyCollect!
Are the wheels slowly starting to come off?
One of the most prominent crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital has defaulted on a loan worth more than $670 million
Digital asset brokerage Voyager Digital issued a notice on Monday morning, stating that the fund failed to repay a loan of $350 million in the U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin, USDC, and another 15,250 bitcoin, worth about $323 million at today's prices.
Read more at:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/three-arrows-capital-crypto-hedge-fund-defaults-on-voyager-loan.html
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/quarters/PCGS-2020-quarter-quest/album/247091
And when a stock hedge fund does the same, is it the end of the stock market?
Recall much of > @jmlanzaf said:
These defaults are concerning because the fundamental underpinnings of the tokens are spurious. There are too many and some will fail and which chairs will be there when the music stops?
As Gensler said this am the promoters are saying come hither and the SEC is treating some of these as commodities not securities.
Some people are going to get hurt and that will be shameful.
This is not 2008 when gov came in to save the banks.
THIS default is one hedge fund that may have been over leveraged. $670 million in a trillion dollar market.
I'd be more concerned about the effect of Russian defaults on hedge funds. But even that is a small number.
" Bitcoin is still the best form of money we have ever seen in history.">
$20 Double eagles were a close second. You could spend them, store your wealth with them, and lastly, collect them as little pieces of treasure and art.
Yup, agreed. Gold in the form of double eagles is definitely good money.
Follow me on MyCollect!
Will have to wait and see.
The dot com bust of 2000/2001 and the market meltdown of 2008 was a domino effect of many such smaller enterprises going belly up.
Add to it the global shift spearheaded by BRICS (Iran and Argentina have applied to join that bandwagon)
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/brics-working-on-new-global-reserve-currency-and-alternative-mechanism-for-intl-payments-vladimir-putin/articleshow/92407851.cms
Edited to add link
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/quarters/PCGS-2020-quarter-quest/album/247091
More than the economy of Russia, it would be NATO allies that probably start to get the global markets to be bogged down
Australian bank collapses, customers told to withdraw funds now
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/personalfinance/australian-bank-collapses-customers-told-to-withdraw-funds-now/ss-AAZ3dkw
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/quarters/PCGS-2020-quarter-quest/album/247091
.
this probably isn't the forum to comment on such stuff but i HAVE to say, this is more than i can say for most...
"Volt Bank announced on Wednesday it was closing its deposit taking business and will return its banking license after it couldn't raise enough funds to stay afloat"