Price drops in lower denomination AU gold...

lkenefic

...but increases in $20 Saints? ..and $20 Libs?

The drops seem logical to me as bullion has dropped in recent months, but what is the reason behind a significant increase in $20 gold? More numismatic value? Something has to be driving it...

coinbuf

Sellers that smell blood in the water and illogical buying by the buyers, imo. I think back to a recent thread where one member posted about buying a significant number of $20 and $10 gold coins (something like 40 or 50 in total) in a mater of hours at a recent show no matter the cost. I'm not questioning his actions and I know he had his reasons but I was blown away at the amount of money he spent on those gold coins in the span of an hour or three.

I also think that some of the overzealous buying is being driven by a generation that learned to fight inflation by buying/holding physical gold and silver.

vulcanize

In my observation there suddenly seems to have been many more "affordable" Saints available in the market in the past few months (especially on eBay)

https://www.ebay.com/b/Double-Eagle-20-US-Gold_Cois-Pre-1933/39472/bn_16566278

and APMEX, Liberty Coin have been getting truckloads in.

https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_trksid=p2380057.m570.l2632&_nkw=saint+gaudens+double+eagle&_sacat=253

Just my two cents as always

ricko

I have not seen any 'affordable' gold... that is, by my standards. I purchased stacks back at $3-4 hundred an ounce...sold some to cover costs...bought some, sold some more... Living rent free in the safe. Cheers, RickO

vulcanize

@ricko said:
I have not seen any 'affordable' gold... that is, by my standards. I purchased stacks back at $3-4 hundred an ounce...sold some to cover costs...bought some, sold some more... Living rent free in the safe. Cheers, RickO

End of 2000 starting of 2001 was great time to buy gold cheap but did not have the money back then having lost quite a bit in the dot com bust.

By affordable I meant compared to current market prices plus the marginal premium mark up.

I have mentioned it earlier on the forum about the agreement with my wife not to get carried away with higher grades, so got an MS62 Saint Gauden for 1951 USD when the spot price was 1875$ and it beats stacking bullion at that sort of price range.

pmh1nic

@vulcanize said:

@ricko said:
I have not seen any 'affordable' gold... that is, by my standards. I purchased stacks back at $3-4 hundred an ounce...sold some to cover costs...bought some, sold some more... Living rent free in the safe. Cheers, RickO

End of 2000 starting of 2001 was great time to buy gold cheap but did not have the money back then having lost quite a bit in the dot com bust.

By affordable I meant compared to current market prices plus the marginal premium mark up.

I have mentioned it earlier on the forum about the agreement with my wife not to get carried away with higher grades, so got an MS62 Saint Gauden for 1951 USD when the spot price was 1875$ and it beats stacking bullion at that sort of price range.

I think the question becomes where do you see gold in 2041? People may be talking about how cheap gold was in 2021.

jmlanzaf

@pmh1nic said:

@vulcanize said:

@ricko said:
I have not seen any 'affordable' gold... that is, by my standards. I purchased stacks back at $3-4 hundred an ounce...sold some to cover costs...bought some, sold some more... Living rent free in the safe. Cheers, RickO

End of 2000 starting of 2001 was great time to buy gold cheap but did not have the money back then having lost quite a bit in the dot com bust.

By affordable I meant compared to current market prices plus the marginal premium mark up.

I have mentioned it earlier on the forum about the agreement with my wife not to get carried away with higher grades, so got an MS62 Saint Gauden for 1951 USD when the spot price was 1875$ and it beats stacking bullion at that sort of price range.

I think the question becomes where do you see gold in 2041? People may be talking about how cheap gold was in 2021.

Or how ridiculously expensive it was...

vulcanize

Well, without it getting all mired in politics, it all depends I guess.....
Ask a prepper and they would say you can't eat gold, ask a bit coin enthusiast, you would get different answers and if you ask the apes of WallStreetBets, they would say "To the Moon" etc.

But bottom line for numismatics is (and I shamelessly lifted it from elsewhere) - We who collect coins must realize that we do not OWN the coins but rather are the happy custodians of them.

Happy colleting

lkenefic

I just think these are unprecedented times. I managed to buy a couple of pieces when gold had dipped to ~$1250/oz and passed on an MS63 Saint at $1275... raw $10 Indians at the same show for $650. I think the was November 2019...

I did manage to buy a certified $5 Lib at $400 just after this show when the prices had started to pick up... I just checked the PCGS priceguide an choked... is this coin really trading at $715 now?

jmlanzaf

@lkenefic said:
I just think these are unprecedented times. I managed to buy a couple of pieces when gold had dipped to ~$1250/oz and passed on an MS63 Saint at $1275... raw $10 Indians at the same show for $650. I think the was November 2019...

I did manage to buy a certified $5 Lib at $400 just after this show when the prices had started to pick up... I just checked the PCGS priceguide an choked... is this coin really trading at $715 now?

Yes it is.

Cougar1978

USGTC due for downward adjustment.

As far as lower denom US premiums over melt too high vs many Classic World Gold Issues, many in MS64-63 and those coins many lower pops as well.

This has been brewing for a long time. Many US dealers buried in USGTC if gold takes a big fall so will they. It’s like gravity. Thanks. Many have seen on bourse already being discounted. Others over promoted but mkt will finally have its say.

koynekwest

That might make it a little easier to complete my Indian Head quarter eagle date set.

pmh1nic

@jmlanzaf said:

@pmh1nic said:

@vulcanize said:

@ricko said:
I have not seen any 'affordable' gold... that is, by my standards. I purchased stacks back at $3-4 hundred an ounce...sold some to cover costs...bought some, sold some more... Living rent free in the safe. Cheers, RickO

End of 2000 starting of 2001 was great time to buy gold cheap but did not have the money back then having lost quite a bit in the dot com bust.

By affordable I meant compared to current market prices plus the marginal premium mark up.

I have mentioned it earlier on the forum about the agreement with my wife not to get carried away with higher grades, so got an MS62 Saint Gauden for 1951 USD when the spot price was 1875$ and it beats stacking bullion at that sort of price range.

I think the question becomes where do you see gold in 2041? People may be talking about how cheap gold was in 2021.

Or how ridiculously expensive it was...

1972 $63
1982 $447
1992 $343
2002 $310
2012 $1775
2021 $1757

While the price of gold has been flat for long periods of time and seen dips I don't see anything in the history that indicates in the future the price today would be considered "ridiculous expensive". No one knows with any certainty what the economy will look like 5 years from now let alone 20 years from now but uncertainty seeks a safe haven and one of the historic safe havens has been gold. I think some form of crypto is in our future but it won't be something outside of government's control to regulate and tax.

What scenario do you envision where the price of gold would be dramatically lower than the price today, say 50% lower?

jmlanzaf

@pmh1nic said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@pmh1nic said:

@vulcanize said:

@ricko said:
I have not seen any 'affordable' gold... that is, by my standards. I purchased stacks back at $3-4 hundred an ounce...sold some to cover costs...bought some, sold some more... Living rent free in the safe. Cheers, RickO

End of 2000 starting of 2001 was great time to buy gold cheap but did not have the money back then having lost quite a bit in the dot com bust.

By affordable I meant compared to current market prices plus the marginal premium mark up.

I have mentioned it earlier on the forum about the agreement with my wife not to get carried away with higher grades, so got an MS62 Saint Gauden for 1951 USD when the spot price was 1875$ and it beats stacking bullion at that sort of price range.

I think the question becomes where do you see gold in 2041? People may be talking about how cheap gold was in 2021.

Or how ridiculously expensive it was...

1972 $63
1982 $447
1992 $343
2002 $310
2012 $1775
2021 $1757

While the price of gold has been flat for long periods of time and seen dips I don't see anything in the history that indicates in the future the price today would be considered "ridiculous expensive". No one knows with any certainty what the economy will look like 5 years from now let alone 20 years from now but uncertainty seeks a safe haven and one of the historic safe havens has been gold. I think some form of crypto is in our future but it won't be something outside of government's control to regulate and tax.

What scenario do you envision where the price of gold would be dramatically lower than the price today, say 50% lower?

You picked a specific date - 2041. If you want to tell me that at some point in the next 100 years gold will be higher than today, I'd probably agree.

Then you cherry-picked your data. How about:

1980 - $850
2002 - $310

That's a 22 year span where gold dropped by 65%.

Or

2011 - $1900
2020 - $1773

Or
2011- $1900
2019 - $1394

A lot of the run-up in gold from 2008 till the present is driven by the fear trade. There are any number of economic conditions that could unravel the fear trade in gold and send it back to $1000 per ounce. Gold was under $1400 in 2019, after all, and had been trending down since the 2011 peak. Then Covid.

Gold bugs will tell you that is is only "manipulation" that is keeping gold under $3000. I think it's just as likely that only "fear" is keeping gold over $1000.

pcgscacgold

I will gladly take gold under $1000. Would like $500 even better. The chance to add Double Eagles at that price would be outstanding.

jmlanzaf

@pcgscacgold said:
I will gladly take gold under $1000. Would like $500 even better. The chance to add Double Eagles at that price would be outstanding.

Yeah. I don't really care whether it goes up or goes down. You adjust to the world as it comes to you.

pmh1nic

@jmlanzaf said:

@pmh1nic said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@pmh1nic said:

@vulcanize said:

@ricko said:
I have not seen any 'affordable' gold... that is, by my standards. I purchased stacks back at $3-4 hundred an ounce...sold some to cover costs...bought some, sold some more... Living rent free in the safe. Cheers, RickO

End of 2000 starting of 2001 was great time to buy gold cheap but did not have the money back then having lost quite a bit in the dot com bust.

By affordable I meant compared to current market prices plus the marginal premium mark up.

I have mentioned it earlier on the forum about the agreement with my wife not to get carried away with higher grades, so got an MS62 Saint Gauden for 1951 USD when the spot price was 1875$ and it beats stacking bullion at that sort of price range.

I think the question becomes where do you see gold in 2041? People may be talking about how cheap gold was in 2021.

Or how ridiculously expensive it was...

1972 $63
1982 $447
1992 $343
2002 $310
2012 $1775
2021 $1757

While the price of gold has been flat for long periods of time and seen dips I don't see anything in the history that indicates in the future the price today would be considered "ridiculous expensive". No one knows with any certainty what the economy will look like 5 years from now let alone 20 years from now but uncertainty seeks a safe haven and one of the historic safe havens has been gold. I think some form of crypto is in our future but it won't be something outside of government's control to regulate and tax.

What scenario do you envision where the price of gold would be dramatically lower than the price today, say 50% lower?

You picked a specific date - 2041. If you want to tell me that at some point in the next 100 years gold will be higher than today, I'd probably agree.

Then you cherry-picked your data. How about:

1980 - $850
2002 - $310

That's a 22 year span where gold dropped by 65%.

Or

2011 - $1900
2020 - $1773

Or
2011- $1900
2019 - $1394

A lot of the run-up in gold from 2008 till the present is driven by the fear trade. There are any number of economic conditions that could unravel the fear trade in gold and send it back to $1000 per ounce. Gold was under $1400 in 2019, after all, and had been trending down since the 2011 peak. Then Covid.

Gold bugs will tell you that is is only "manipulation" that is keeping gold under $3000. I think it's just as likely that only "fear" is keeping gold over $1000.

I picked 10 year increments going back to 1972. You cherry-pick dates. Do you see any economic certainty going forward other than a breakdown of the current financial structure? Or are you one of those that thinks the U.S. can continue this cycle of deeper debt and money “printing” for another 10 years without serious economic consequences?

streeter

@coinbuf said:
Sellers that smell blood in the water and illogical buying by the buyers, imo. I think back to a recent thread where one member posted about buying a significant number of $20 and $10 gold coins (something like 40 or 50 in total) in a mater of hours at a recent show no matter the cost. I'm not questioning his actions and I know he had his reasons but I was blown away at the amount of money he spent on those gold coins in the span of an hour or three.

I also think that some of the overzealous buying is being driven by a generation that learned to fight inflation by buying/holding physical gold and silver.

You're close on about half your thoughts and lack knowledge on the other half.