Please help me understand price guide value dynamics for example - 1878 Proof Trade dollar

vulcanize

The value of the proof only 1878 Trade dollar with a mintage of only 900 and graded PR 64 had a price value of 4050 USD in April of 1998 as per the all time graph. The peak it touched was 5700$ in June 2008 and has been seeing a steady slide into the sub 4k range as of April 2019.

https://www.pcgs.com/pricehistory#/?=7058-64

So were these totally inflated prices considering that 4050$ in 1998 is about 6750 dollars (in today's adjusted for the rate of inflation at around 5.5%) and the same PR 64 coin is being sold for almost half price.

I am intrigued and confused at the same time. Thanks in advance for the expert inputs.

tradedollarnut

Many of the PR64’s from 1998 are now in PR65+ holders. If you chose wisely, you did ok. Today’s 64’s are the 63’s or dreggy 64’s of old.

BStrauss3

How many people want "it"?
How many examples of "it" are available?

If the former is greater than the latter, the price increases.
If the latter is greater than the former, the price drops.
If they are equal, the price remains stable.

Eldorado9

@tradedollarnut said:
Many of the PR64’s from 1998 are now in PR65+ holders. If you chose wisely, you did ok. Today’s 64’s are the 63’s or dreggy 64’s of old.

Exactly.

vulcanize

Thank you all for the responses.

I had imagined that the 900 "mintage number" would have been the major factor that should have been the primary force in keeping the prices more steady and hence the query.

Cheers.

thefinn

I think more people would want a proof 1878 Morgan dollar than a proof 1878 Trade dollar.

Crypto

@vulcanize said:
Thank you all for the responses.

I had imagined that the 900 "mintage number" would have been the major factor that should have been the primary force in keeping the prices more steady and hence the query.

Cheers.

TDN is right but that is only part of the answer as the number of collectors has also declined. 900 doesn’t seem like much but it is way more than there are collectors. The pre-proof only dates are scarcer as they are harder to come by

vulcanize

Thank you all for the insights.

Am coming to speculative conclusion that part of the reason is perhaps not many are collecting the proof only trade dollars nor are most folks aware of the existence of the1878 proof only trade dollar from Philadelphia mint thus keeping the prices down.

Cheers.

jmlanzaf

@vulcanize said:
Thank you all for the insights.

Am coming to speculative conclusion that part of the reason is perhaps not many are collecting the proof only trade dollars nor are most folks aware of the existence of the1878 proof only trade dollar from Philadelphia mint thus keeping the prices down.

Cheers.

It's always supply and demand. There is NO COIN, no matter how scarce, that is guaranteed to go up in value.

Everyone with a red book is aware of the issue. That didn't mean anyone wants to spend $5000+ to acquire one. The US market is too deep and too mature for the market value to be anything but accurate. You are not smarter than the market. No one is.

vulcanize

@jmlanzaf said:
Everyone with a red book is aware of the issue. That didn't mean anyone wants to spend $5000+ to acquire one. The US market is too deep and too mature for the market value to be anything but accurate. You are not smarter than the market. No one is.

Sure makes me glad to have managed to pick up the raw trade dollar coins for my Dansco at fairly below market prices along with the slabbed proofs (only need the 1873 through 1877 proofs to complete it which dont have slot in the album and moreover am not too keen to pursue them right now - and of course it is always going to be missing the 1884 and 1885).

Can't help feeling slightly bad for those who bought the slabbed proofs at higher prices back in the day.

ricko

Supply AND demand are axiomatic market principles. Low supply, no demand = low price. High supply, high demand = flipper market. High supply, low demand = low prices. Low supply, high demand = sellers paradise, buyers hell. Cheers, RickO

jmlanzaf

@vulcanize said:

@jmlanzaf said:
Everyone with a red book is aware of the issue. That didn't mean anyone wants to spend $5000+ to acquire one. The US market is too deep and too mature for the market value to be anything but accurate. You are not smarter than the market. No one is.

Sure makes me glad to have managed to pick up the raw trade dollar coins for my Dansco at fairly below market prices along with the slabbed proofs (only need the 1873 through 1877 proofs to complete it which dont have slot in the album and moreover am not too keen to pursue them right now - and of course it is always going to be missing the 1884 and 1885).

Can't help feeling slightly bad for those who bought the slabbed proofs at higher prices back in the day.

Go look at what people were paying for Hawaiian commems in 1989.

vulcanize

LOL.

Am not at all complaining about snagging the 1878 T$ Proof in MS 64 for 3000$ (plus buyer's premium), am just flummoxed.

Keshequa

Supply, demand, speculation and grading changes.

MS ‘65’ morgans were $500+ in 1989.

Coins are collectibles, not investments.