What's the minimum required population of a particular coin for you to consider it "collectible"?
MFeld
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This topic came up in another thread yesterday and I'm curious about what others think. Please base your answer upon the combined PCGS/NGC population, with the understanding that the population numbers can be inflated, due to resubmissions.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
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I like to collect rare items so 1.
Check out these pops:
Price is the only determining factor for a coin to be collectable for me.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
The early Commemorative's have low mintage's are are collectable. The lowest half dollar mintage I think was around 10,000 (Spanish trail and Hawaiian). I am not sure what the remaining populations are, but probably most were saved.
The Matte Proof Lincolns are also very collectible. and the lowest mintage with these is somewhere between 600 and 1000 with the 1909 vdb. Most other dates have mintages between 2000 and 4000 I believe. In terms of remaining population, even less maybe 25% to 50% of the mintage? It varies I'm sure. I wonder if the remaining pops of the 1909 VDB is somewhere between 100 and 200?
I suppose if I was going to put a round number on this question, I would say 1000 is a good estimate for the mintage, and maybe 100 in terms of the population. Both are nice round numbers. It is clear though, once you get down to populations of 100, it's very hard to participate, so it's general collectability comes into some doubt.
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The 1938 P,D,S Daniel Boone commemoratives each have a mintage of 2100.
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"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
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PerryHall, correct, individual mintage's in a Commemorative series are very low! I was thinking of these as type coins, which is how most people collect them. But in any case, you are right!
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If you are considering availability, it depends on what you are collecting. For obsolete currency (or little-collected coins) surviving numbers in the thousands makes an item very common. At the other extreme, a piece can be very rare or even unique, but if nobody wants it (or there is very little interest), there may always be one available.
That's why one or more of an item is collectible in my book. Of course, there are exceptions: the 1849 Double Eagle is not currently collectible. I own many unique items and consider all of them collectible. Offer me enough, and you can own them, too. So why wouldn't these unique items be considered collectible?
Another 1!
ONE
Is the Mona Lisa not collectible because she is unique?
The original question is more about registry sets not "collectible". Asking an art collection to require having the Mona Lisa is rather a different question.
While I don’t collect them, I consider Lincoln cents and other mass produced coins collectible. Most collectibles are far from rare.
Common Morgan’s are collected on a large scale. They are definitely collectible despite being the opposite of rare.
I dont think population has anything to do with being collectable. If it did nobody except for a few people would be collecting. Look at pops for most Morgan dollars. They are collected by lots of people.
Edit- To be a highly prized collectable the pops matter.
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The Mona Lisa is not collectible because she is a person, and also dead.
The Mona Lisa is not collectible because it is owned by the Louvre.
Class dismissed.
I define collectability by how often a coin is available for sale, not a minimal number of survivors. Any coin which is available on demand or relatively easy to buy is collectible, even if the number is "few". That's the reality with over 95% of US coins, because of the higher price level versus other countries.
As an example, I'd consider both the 1804 dollar and 1913 LHN more collectible than 1792 Getz pattern half dollar in silver since both have been much easier to buy in the 45+ years I have been a collector. This even though the LHN has five, the 1804 dollar eight (15 if including restrikes) and the Getz pattern over 20. I don't consider either of the first two particularly hard to buy while the third has been, publicly anyway.
It also depends upon if "collectability" is defined as the ability of any single collector to buy it or a minimum number who can own it concurrently. Mine is the first, since anyone who has the money can own it if offered for sale.
Anything can be collected. Shouldn't the question be is it resaleable? A distinctive item within a popular group with population of one is resaleable. A very minor variety, not so much as such. An example from the stamp collecting world. The inverted airmail stamp came in a sheet of 100 copies. Even if there was only one inverted airmail stamp, it would be collectible.
When you sold me my first proof Indian cent in 2003, I was floored to think how low its mintage was relative to the 1909-S VDB cent, yet the PF65RB was still cheaper than most heavily circulated 09-S VDB examples. I realize that's mintage and not population, but my point will stand. The Indian was much cheaper (relatively) because it has way less demand. If I like a coin and the price is right at a quality level I'm happy with, then I'm interested. It doesn't matter to me if there are lots of them and the price is high due to demand, nor would it matter if it's "rare" but the price is relatively low because of lack of demand. So theoretically, as long as there's one in existence, it's good enough. Granted, I doubt there's anything I'd be collecting where such a population would be reasonable, but the only reason I'd consider how many are available when deciding whether to pursue a coin is if the search would be fruitful. If it's so unlikely I'd ever find an example, it might make sense to broaden the description of what I'm looking for so I have a hope of getting one, but that is a function not just of absolute population, but also some understanding of the market and general availability.
That also means that 1913 Liberty Nickels aren't collectible because they are currently owned.
Museums do deaccess - not that the Mona Lisa is likely to be sold anytime soon.
Pick any other effing painting you want. You are missing the forest for the trees.
And if you want to pick nits: The Mona Lisa is a painting not a person. The Mona Lisa is a painting of a woman named Lisa Gherardini (allegedly).
If you can refer to ships and storms as he/she, one can certainly refer to paintings as "she" rather than "it".
Class dismissed with prejudice.
There only needs to be one of something to be collectible. Unfortunately many look at coins as investments and for that there needs to be more availability to interest more people. For me it is "Collectible" and "Investable" and those are two different things.
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I like 10. But I think that would also have to depend on rarity relative to the rest of the set.
There are separate registry sets for Proof Liberty nickels with and without the 1913.
Same thing with the 94-S dime, there is a separate set composition with and without it and it has a population twice that of the 58DDO cent.
Maybe there should be an "including super-rarities" sub category for each set that has them.
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That is an interesting question. At least 20-25 (in all grades), I think, for regular-issue U. S. coins. Even then, one might have to wait years/decades for an example to surface in a public sale. For coins with a really dedicated following (early date large cents, collected by variety), the number could be higher, say 50. I realize that these numbers are likely higher than what some people would consider the collectible-noncollectible boundary, but there is no point in calling something 'collectible' if the odds of encountering one for sale within a decade are really small. Regarding exonumia, the number could easily drop to something like 5.
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If you pick 10, then the 1913 Liberty Nickels comes very close to that cutoff at pop 5. Seems low.
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This is the correct answer. Just because it may not be available for purchase doesn't mean it's not collectable.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
"The customer is rarer than the note" Well, not quite, but almost.
Case in point:
Certified pop: 0
Est number known: certainly less than 10, at least 1, probably 3-5, or so.
Collectible: Sure, two bidders so far, however a $5000 offer might not be able to find a second example. So this example is collectible, based on availability, while a second example may not be. Same item, different circumstances.
Why so cheap: Condition, lack of interest in KY notes
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Within the US market I think it depends on the series but 50 to me seems the floor of extant examples (64-S $5-10) as an example. Below that it becomes a once in 5-10 year event that a piece comes to market.
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It still seems to be available within five years or less, on average. Most of the coins in my primary series (non-US) are more common but harder to buy, except maybe by paying large multiples to the estimated market price by working through a dealer attempting to find the current owner.
If it was made it is collectible. The problem is only a few can afford that collectible in their collection. A one of a kind, or even a few of a kind will never be in my budget, but that does not mean it is not collectible.
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I do not see a number as an issue for collectability. There are too many other overriding factors such as how common coins can be promoted and the ties certain coins have to specific historical time frames in the US. Everyone seems interested in the Old West and CC dollars have a significant following even though they are readily available which makes them promotable. There has been somewhat of a disconnect between rarity, surviving population, condition rarity and how numbers create somewhat of a false narrative to promote what really is not rare.
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It all comes down to supply and demand. If there is only 1 example but nobody wants it then the collectability of that coin is zero. If there are 10000 but 50000 people want it then its highly collectable.
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A one of a kind coin is collectable, but it isn’t/shouldn’t be considered to be a required part of a set/series if just one or a few were produced. Otherwise there will only be one or a few complete sets possible and no one else will even have the motivation to even try and collect that set/series.
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And yes there is a difference between rarity and what is collectible...
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Are state quarters collectible? I'd say "sure", but 90% of the people who thought that they were collectible 20 years ago don't see them as collectible now. Supply far exceeds demand but I'd still say that they are collectible. And a good entry level collection for a beginner.
I collect National Commemorative Medals of the US Mint and consider all of them collectable, even if they currently have zero pop at NGC/PCGS.
I have sent in a lot of never graded medals, that are in my registry set signature below my posts, that are pop 1 now.
However, requiring a medal to be in the set calculation for registry set completion percentages that has never been graded at PCGS or NGC is a bit unrealistic. Once one is graded anywhere, then it should be considered required if more than one was minted.
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Depends on how you look at it. DaVinci did many paintings, so in that respect she is not unique.
For varieties, a coin for which there is only one known needs to have a second corroborating specimen before collectors will get really excited about it.
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I would say ten in all grades and conditions, even damaged ones.
My rationale is that the 1894-S dime, with 9 known, I consider "non-collectible".
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I'm not saying they need to be excited about it. But to argue that a unique coin is not "collectible" depends on narrowly defining collectible. Unique usually makes things more desirous of being collected (penny magenta stamp, 1933 monetized $20 Saint Gauden's)
Every painting is "unique" which makes every painting non-collectible, if you use that definition of "collectible"
I apologize to all who have read and/or posted to this thread. It seems apparent that I should have started off by providing (or asking for) a definition of "collectible"!
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
ONE!!!
It also depends on if it is a date/mm or variety. I agree with @boosibri that around 50 of a date/MM they tend to dry up and become too contested for normal collectors, for varieties around a dozen and they get crazy competitive.
Technically though everything is collectible to the right person
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You're confusing collectible with acquire-able. Art is collectible, but some art is pretty much unacquire-able. The presence of a "stopper" in a series is something of a turn-off for me. There aren't any "stoppers" in the Walker series if you're satisfied with having some in lower grades.
The way I look at it is by the estimated holding period. A coin with 100 survivors and an average holding period of 10 years will be available approximately every month; about five weeks. That's not even close to being hard to buy. It's easy. With 50, every two to three months and still not hard.
I think the challenge is either not knowing the coin is available for sale or equally, the one you mentioned in another thread. The coin may (usually) sell outside of auction through a limited number of dealers and they give priority to someone else, presumably their biggest spending customers.
The other reason US collectors may have this view is because of their quality standards. Many coins with 50 or 100 survivors prior to the 20th century will have very few in "acceptable quality" .
I think this is really what the other thread was getting at.
Is the 1933 $20 DE part of the registry set?
Well, you did put "collectible" in quotation marks...
All coins are collectible. However, not all coins are necessarily desirable or worth collecting-something which is extremely subjective and cannot be quantified.
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Its not a number, rather what is required to complete a set. A set that one collects may include mintages of 1 million to several 1000 to just a handful in the same set. .... If I'm collecting Alaska fractional gold sets by variety., To complete it there may be only 1 or 2 coins of a particular variety in existence.. Also grade rarity as a collectable is also a factor so their may be no minimum at all..
i see collectible as something that fits nice into my collection. have a nice day m feld
Agree with this statement for the most part. For me, I like pre-1933 gold so when I see the comment "less than 100 known" yet it will occasionally still come up for auction at a price for people not named Buffett or Zuckerberg I'm interested. 50 may be a decent cut-off if you need a number. Anything left will have to be purchased by the Buffett/Zuckerberg crowd. This ugly little lady is still one of my favorites:
5
Maybe not affordable (1913 nickel).
I like the EAC nomenclature, NC not collectible for low pops then now collectible after the population increases.
A: The year they spend more on their library than their coin collection.
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Mark, if your question is what the population quantity of a particular coin is collectible for numismatics as a definition, I cannot answer for the hobby, but if you are asking what it is for me, it would be more of a price factor than a population, so again I cannot answer. I would tend to believe that for the majority of collectors price would be the determining factor for a collectible. Many of the coins considered to be part of a collection are beyond my reach, so I leave those sets to the others with means to complete their collections. Their is plenty of room in the hobby for all size collectors.
Jim
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To me, it's all collectable but the question is - is it attainable for the average collector? Capped bust halves are my favorite series, but I consider the 1817/4 and the 1839 Small Letters as unobtainable by the average collector (me included), each have only a handful known. I'll always be 2 short of completing the Major Varieties registry set because of this.
If more get found, then bring them on!
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Minimum: I try to keep track of who owns which coins to know if they're unlikely to come back to market.
Maximum: If there are ~100 suitable examples of a type, I probably won't buy that coin unless it is truly superb. The opportunity cost is too great as I could instead wait around for a rarer coin which represented a more unique opportunity.
Survivors in all grades, or does condition rarity play into it?
I should add that early on NGC didn’t keep records so the population report for quite a few things I have from NGC is actually zero.
So in practice, the pop can be, and is, sometimes 0!