Your estimate of % of coins graded by PCGS in the last year that are “Modern”?

winesteven

While PCGS reports certain very interesting data, I don’t see the percentage of coins they recently graded that are “modern”, as opposed to “classic” coins. Or put another way, over the past year, what’s your guess as to the percentage of coins graded by PCGS that have a grade of 69 or 70, as opposed to 68+ and lower, and do you have any degree of confidence in your guess? Obviously, I don’t believe any of us truly knows the answer, so let’s have some fun sharing our thoughts.

I’ll start out, suggesting that about 75% to 80% of the coins PCGS graded in the past year are “modern” coins, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in that guess.

Steve

ricko

I have absolutely no idea. So, instead of inducing frustration and guessing some wild, unfounded number, I will have a glass of Cabernet. Wine, it's better than corn flakes. Cheers, RickO

derryb

90%, confidence is high.

Remember the pic of the stacks of monster boxes awaiting grading?

WCC

Somewhere in the vicinity of the above posts. It isn't just US NCLT but also world. Graded populations of world NCLT are high too.

291fifth

Can you imagine how awful a job it must be to have to grade monster boxes of modern bullion coins?

winesteven

@291fifth said:
Can you imagine how awful a job it must be to have to grade monster boxes of modern bullion coins?

It must be a monstrous job, lol.

pcgscacgold

I will guess 93-95% Moderns. I have to believe Moderns keep their doors open. No way they could survive on classics alone. Monster box after Monster box of bullion "coins" pay the bills. They must be excited when they see the number of Silver/Gold Eagle varieties this year along with the 1921 Morgan and Peace products. I can hear the cash registers already. The future is bright at PCGS.

Jzyskowski1

95 percent. There’s just not boxes and boxes of old and or rare coins out there. I hear more “will this cross over” than “just found or bought this should I grade it?”. I just can’t get over the number of moderns that I can buy slabbed for cheap. My opinion

coinbuf

Of all the coins, modern, classic, and world; I would think right at 60% would be modern. Depending on what someone considers to be modern.

bolivarshagnasty

Based purely on speculation, I would be in the 3 out of 4 camp, or 75%.

WCC

@Jzyskowski1 said:
95 percent. There’s just not boxes and boxes of old and or rare coins out there. I hear more “will this cross over” than “just found or bought this should I grade it?”. I just can’t get over the number of moderns that I can buy slabbed for cheap. My opinion

There are a lot of high quality coins that could be graded, but it isn't economical, not at current grading fees and market prices. It isn't as many as NCLT but there must still be millions of AU to BU Morgan and Peace dollars, generic US gold, and 1933-1964 US classics.

Depending upon the accuracy of Coin Facts estimates, many older US type have far more outside of a holder than in one, below the better MS grades. But I agree this volume isn't a meaningful revenue opportunity.

fathom

Define modern.

Jzyskowski1

@fathom said:
Define modern.

1965 on for US? Easy now just putting a number out friendly like 😊

ms71

75% (or more), fairly confident. It's got to be a tough job grading modern "stuff" for hours on end.

Jzyskowski1

@ms71 said:
75% (or more), fairly confident. It's got to be a tough job grading modern "stuff" for hours on end.

I once worked in a plastic bottle factory. I believe 90percent or more factory line workers (I mean day after day same dang plastic bottles)workers would trade with a pcgs grader in a heartbeat. I don’t feel too sorry for pcgs graders. What an education. Looking at whatever factory part your working with day after day has a very limited educational experience 🤓

DisneyFan

One thing you can do is take a specific coin and compare the number of coins graded by NGC to the number of coins graded by PCGS and then factor in the cost of grading by each service.

winesteven

@fathom said:
Define modern.

As noted in the Original Post: “Or put another way, over the past year, what’s your guess as to the percentage of coins graded by PCGS that have a grade of 69 or 70, as opposed to 68+ and lower?”

Steve

fathom

Over 75%.

Hydrant

?

derryb

@Jzyskowski1 said:

@ms71 said:
75% (or more), fairly confident. It's got to be a tough job grading modern "stuff" for hours on end.

I once worked in a plastic bottle factory. I believe 90percent or more factory line workers (I mean day after day same dang plastic bottles)workers would trade with a pcgs grader in a heartbeat. I don’t feel too sorry for pcgs graders. What an education. Looking at whatever factory part your working with day after day has a very limited educational experience 🤓

same here except I worked on a coca cola bottle wooden crate assembly line. Remember those? I still see them flying by in my sleep.

SIowhand

I’d imagine it is north of 90%.

ColonelJessup

Define (not my job) each date cut-off for moderns., Pop report totals by date and denomination are then easily calculated.

"Or put another way" super-grades are not in the least bit relevant.

A 80 year-old coder could write the program in 50-year-old FORTRAN in 2 hours or less. I think 50 year-old RPG would work too.

The complex algebraic formulaic process is as follows:
A-B=C
C/A = %
A is the total number coins graded
B is the total number of non-Moderns graded
C is the ...............................

Jeez

Oh, an estimate? My estimate would be that in 5 years 95% of CU's customers will have no conception of what a Modern coin is or why they should be interested. Or heads will roll

78.141592365%. Almost as easy as pi

rec78

2021 my guess is 80%. In 2031 - 90% - 2041 - 95% - 2051 - on 99%
Older coins worth grading will eventually dry up. I would imagine that modern coins keep will PCGS in business. Still, there are tons of older coins sitting around in bank vaults and albums, like mine, just waiting to be graded.

thefinn

I would wager that 50%+ of all submissions now are ASEs.

pmh1nic

@291fifth said:
Can you imagine how awful a job it must be to have to grade monster boxes of modern bullion coins?

Any idea of the average number of coins a grader sees in a day?

rec78

@ms71 said:
75% (or more), fairly confident. It's got to be a tough job grading modern "stuff" for hours on end.

Any job where you are working in safe and clean environments is better then working in factories or anywhere where you can get injured easily or physically or mentally impacted. I would gladly grade boring coins every day then most of the jobs I have had in my lifetime.
My top three dream jobs:
1. Playboy photographer (I cant imagine doing this and getting paid for it! I'd do it for free.)
2. Pinball machine tester
3. PCGS coin grader.

messydesk

There are currently over 400,000 2021 MS ASEs in the pops. I'd imagine that not only is 90% of what goes in for grading current issues, but that there's a department dedicated to nothing but ASEs.

CopperWire

@derryb said:
90%, confidence is high.

Remember the pic of the stacks of monster boxes awaiting grading?

THE DAYS OF RAW MODERN COINS IS OVER

jmlanzaf

@CopperWire said:

@derryb said:
90%, confidence is high.

Remember the pic of the stacks of monster boxes awaiting grading?

THE DAYS OF RAW MODERN COINS IS OVER

Oh, God, not that again

BAJJERFAN

@derryb said:
90%, confidence is high.

Remember the pic of the stacks of monster boxes awaiting grading?

I do indeed remember that. 2014s I believe. That would appear to be a submission from some place like APMEX and was probably drop shipped direct from the mint. It looks to be at least 150,0000 ASEs.

Jzyskowski1

Nice

Not over just similarly priced

ddostie900

High percentage. Might be the reason why they can't seem to grade silver likes in the MS-67-MS69 region with anything approaching consistency. Someday maybe...

Jzyskowski1

@ddostie900 said:
High percentage. Might be the reason why they can't seem to grade silver likes in the MS-67-MS69 region with anything approaching consistency. Someday maybe...

Note in my post above. Your choice raw or 69 graded same price. I was looking for the 67-68 ‘s after some research 🧐 I don’t think there’s a need.

Raybo

So from what I have seen so far most people are above the 80 percentile bracket for moderns.
My next question is...what percentile of coins submitted that are crack outs or regrades?
What I'm getting at is, what is the percentile of fresh classic coins being submitted to the top 2 services?

Jzyskowski1

For crackout or regrade.01 percent. Fresh is different fresh classic is an oxymoron I think 🤔. Clarification please.

WCC

@rec78 said:
Older coins worth grading will eventually dry up. I would imagine that modern coins keep will PCGS in business. Still, there are tons of older coins sitting around in bank vaults and albums, like mine, just waiting to be graded.

This is what I was getting at earlier in referring to Coin Facts. However, there is "potential" and there is "actual". At some point, the counts increase to a level where grading doesn't sufficiently improve marketability. In this situation, probably need to beat most or everyone else and sell sooner rather than later.

savitale

92.3%

What do we win for the closest guess?

winesteven

@savitale said:
92.3%

What do we win for the closest guess?

I don’t believe the answer is publicly available, lol.

Jzyskowski1

@WCC said:

@rec78 said:
Older coins worth grading will eventually dry up. I would imagine that modern coins keep will PCGS in business. Still, there are tons of older coins sitting around in bank vaults and albums, like mine, just waiting to be graded.

This is what I was getting at earlier in referring to Coin Facts. However, there is "potential" and there is "actual". At some point, the counts increase to a level where grading doesn't sufficiently improve marketability. In this situation, probably need to beat most or everyone else and sell sooner rather than later.

Long ago I was a collector of average intelligence and some knowledge. Being repeatedly burned I stopped. Along comes tpg and suddenly there’s a way to lessen the burn ratio. I returned because of some degree of security. “Grading doesn’t sufficiently improve marketability “. Maybe but for a certain portion of collectors it plays a big part in their choice of product 🤔. Oh ya still average intelligence but a little more knowledge 😎