1916/16 Buffalo Nickel question

Vetter

I have the 1916 doubled die Obv Buffalo coming in this week. It’s a problem coin graded by PCGs that I think I got a decent deal on. Nice mid grade coin with strong details. Anyways, I have read the total number believed to be made is anywhere from 100 to 500.
Would anyone care to give an educated guess to how many there are and what % are dateless/acid dates. There seem to be the most of them available at any time.
Thanks.

koynekwest

It's hard to answer those questions precisely but I'd guess between 200 and 300, including acid dates. It seems like it might be a pretty good percentage are acid treated, probably 25% or so. The dates wore off easily on the 1916. Do you have an image of the one you got? I'd like to see it. Here's an image of one I should have pursued more aggressively. It has problems but the detail is excellent. It went for a little over 5 grand a couple of years ago.

savitale

There are 195 in the PCGS population report and 109 in NGC, so ignoring resubmissions there are at least 300. I could imagine 100 or so more in low grade where the overdate is really hard to see, or in cigar boxes that have not yet made their way to the grading services.

koynekwest

@savitale said:
There are 195 in the PCGS population report and 109 in NGC, so ignoring resubmissions there are at least 300. I could imagine 100 or so more in low grade where the overdate is really hard to see, or in cigar boxes that have not yet made their way to the grading services.

I would bet that a significant number of those PCGS and NGC populations are resubmissions.

jmlanzaf

@koynekwest said:

@savitale said:
There are 195 in the PCGS population report and 109 in NGC, so ignoring resubmissions there are at least 300. I could imagine 100 or so more in low grade where the overdate is really hard to see, or in cigar boxes that have not yet made their way to the grading services.

I would bet that a significant number of those PCGS and NGC populations are resubmissions.

Does that include the acid dated ones?

koynekwest

Probably not. No need to resubmit those.

CaptHenway

How many were struck? Lots.

Vetter

@koynekwest said:
It's hard to answer those questions precisely but I'd guess between 200 and 300, including acid dates. It seems like it might be a pretty good percentage are acid treated, probably 25% or so. The dates wore off easily on the 1916. Do you have an image of the one you got? I'd like to see it. Here's an image of one I should have pursued more aggressively. It has problems but the detail is excellent. It went for a little over 5 grand a couple of years ago.

What was the listed problem and what did it detail grade at? Great details on that one. Mine is not that nice and I’ll post pictures once I receive it. What do you think the one you miss on would go for today?

koynekwest

Tooled-

I would imagine it would go for about the same today. It has nice detail but the surfaces are a mess.

MarkKelley

I don't know as to actual numbers extant but I picked a dateless one out of a lot I bought last year on the bay. I've looked through a LOT of low grade nickels over the years and this is my first one.

291fifth

There are probably many more out there than you imagine. Don't assume that nearly every example has been slabbed.

Always remember that there is a financial incentive to underestimate surviving populations of collectible items.

jmlanzaf

@koynekwest said:
Tooled-

I would imagine it would go for about the same today. It has nice detail but the surfaces are a mess.

I can tolerate a lot of details coins: cleaned, environmental damage, light polishing, even bent. For some reason, I can not bring myself to ever bid on a tooled coin.

ricko

I have no idea how many may still be out there.... No idea how the mintage guess was arrived at either. One day I will search my hoard of Buffs to see if I have one - If I do, it will be a barely readable, well worn piece, or I would have spotted it - probably Cheers, RickO

BUFFNIXX

Once got a nice raw coin (1916/1916) that ngc graded Good-04 and when I cracked it out and sent it to pcgs it came back VG-08!
go figure! well, so much for precision grading I guess!

BuffaloIronTail

Precision grading? On a Buffalo Nickel?

LOLOL

Pete

Vetter

Well, its here. The true view looks much darker than in hand. Even my picture still looks dark. I’m happy for the price I picked up for. The dealer came way down from their original, already decent price. Great detail on the date and braids, with a full horn on the rev.

Rubicon

I wonder why there are only a few hundred survivors. Did someone at the mint catch the error and shut down the defective die or is there some other reason.

koynekwest

It's a strong enough doubled die that it's possible that's exactly what happened. There's no sign of impending die failure on any of the coins to indicate that the die failed early on. There may be a number of dateless or near dateless specimens waiting to be discovered but I would surmise that nearly all of the better grade coins have been identified.

LanceNewmanOCC

@Vetter said:

CaptHenway

If I might respectfully dissent, I suspect that the 1916 DDO had a normal die life. The doubling did not affect the word LIBERTY, the doubling on the feather could pass for part of the design, and the doubling on the date mimics any number of repunched dates ignored by die inspectors in the 19th Century. Where are they? Worn away, like most normal dates from the early years of the series.

koynekwest

The 1918-D had a beyond normal die life. That variety is easily found in the lower grade ranges and also suffered from wear on the date, tho it is not as prone to excessive wear on the date as is the 1916. If it consisted of a full die run, where are all the coins? The 1916/16 is many times scarcer that the 1918-D 8/7. The only grade that is relatively available is in the AU range.

Vetter

@koynekwest said:
The 1918-D had a beyond normal die life. That variety is easily found in the lower grade ranges and also suffered from wear on the date, tho it is not as prone to excessive wear on the date as is the 1916. If it consisted of a full die run, where are all the coins? The 1916/16 is many times scarcer that the 1918-D 8/7. The only grade that is relatively available is in the AU range.

So what number of coins would a normal die run produce? Also with 1916 being the 3 highest mintage of all the years you would think if it did have a full run there would be many more known. Out of curiosity why would the 1916 be more prone to excessive wear on the date than the 1918? Did they change the metal mix or something?

koynekwest

I'll have to bring up the Mint records to see how many coins per die were struck in 1918. Just from 60 years experience collecting and studying this series I have found the dates on the 1916 wore off more quickly that they did in 1918. I'll check those records and post the number later.

koynekwest

There were 210 dies used to strike nickels at the Denver Mint in FY 1918 and a total 8,362,000 coins struck. This gives an average die life of 39,819 coins per die. I don't have the figures for 1916 but I would imagine the numbers are about the same. That figure seems to be a little bit low, tho.

koynekwest

I think I will contact a former board member by the name of Roger (who I certainly wish could come back) to see if I can get the mintage figures for 1916 and 1917.

koynekwest

Roger has sent the information and it is as follows:

Average number of coins struck per die for the Philadelphia Mint for 5c coins in 1916- 90, 072
Average number of coins struck per die for the Denver Mint for 5c coins in 1918-135,341

There was also a sharp increase in die life from 1915 to 1916 due to the modifications of the dies in 1916.

Vetter

Thanks for the information. My guess is the 16/16 didn’t last a full die run and that it was noticed very early in the run. Even if another 500 or so we’re found bringing to total to around 1000 it’s still no where near a full run. It was probably found with no official records recorded at the mint and production went on as if nothing happened.

BUFFNIXX

I have found some nice buffalo nickel varieties over the years but never the biggie 1916 doubled die!
So, on with the hunt!

koynekwest

That's my contention as well. There are only nine different Mint state examples known, as far as I can determine from auction archive images, ranging from MS61 thru MS64, which is another indicator that not many were struck.

rec78

This is one of those coins that if you want one, when you see one, you buy it. Grade does not make a difference. I would even buy an nico-dated coin without much any bickering.

koynekwest

I looked for quite a while for the VG08 that I have.

OnWithTheHunt

I've found two in 20 years of searching bulk lots of Buffalos. The first was completely dateless and graded Fair 2 by SEGS, got the second last year which PCGS called a G-6. Sold them both. Still buying no dates and part dates. As Buffnixx said, "On with the hunt."

kevinstang

Only found 1 in years of searching dateless and near dateless buffalo's. Found it back around 2010 or so, had been buying thousands of the coins cheap off of ebay for a couple years-averaging about 10 cents each for dateless back then. I think I found well over a dozen of the 18/17-D coins. (all found/done with nic-a-date).

koynekwest

I would surmise that the other key to the series, the 1918-D 8/7, had a die run far in excess of the 135,341 average pieces per die as evidenced by this VLDS coin-

koynekwest

@BUFFNIXX said:
I have found some nice buffalo nickel varieties over the years but never the biggie 1916 doubled die!
So, on with the hunt!

The 16/16 and 1915 DDO-001 are the only two significant Buffalo 5c varieties I haven't found. I had a corroded 16/16 cherried on ebay a number of years ago but apparently someone told the seller what he had and he withdrew the coin after I "won" it.

DCW

If I recall correctly, wasn't this variety discovered many, many years after struck? I want to say the 1970s.
That would leave plenty of time for attrition. I'm sure thousands were struck. They did their job in commerce, mixed in with the millions of other Nickels over the years, and faded away under couch cushions and landfills.

mbogoman

I have found two dateless examples on Ebay over the last dozen years or so. One graded AG03, the other FR02. Sold both for tidy profits...

koynekwest

It > @DCW said:

If I recall correctly, wasn't this variety discovered many, many years after struck? I want to say the 1970s.
That would leave plenty of time for attrition. I'm sure thousands were struck. They did their job in commerce, mixed in with the millions of other Nickels over the years, and faded away under couch cushions and landfills.

It was first reported in the July, 1962 issue of "Numismatic Scrapbook" magazine.

koynekwest

Here is the article. The cause is wrong. It most definitely IS a doubled die. I don't know how they could miss the very strong doubling on the feathers, ribbon ties, and other adjascent design elements.

koynekwest

@Vetter said:
Well, its here. The true view looks much darker than in hand. Even my picture still looks dark. I’m happy for the price I picked up for. The dealer came way down from their original, already decent price. Great detail on the date and braids, with a full horn on the rev.

It looks like that's not a bad example for a problem coin.