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86 and 87 Jordan’s - opportunity?
balco758
Posts: 1,314 ✭✭✭✭✭
I’ve gotten over my slight depression as the huge price spikes returned to earth….but, Is it me or does 25k for a nice PSA 9 86F seem like a great entry point for long term value. And, same sort of thing @ 30k to grab a PSA 10 in the 87F.
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I also think second years cards of guys like Jordan, Gretzky, Kobe, Lebron, and Brady caliber type players are always a good buy. 1953 Topps Mantle in a PSA 10 I believe has had sales of over 1 million. I know collecting back then and preserving cards the way people started doing in the 70's and 80's was completely on chance that they bought a pack and put the cards away and completely forgot about them until decades later and then found them again in pristine condition. But for the players I mentioned above, there is still serious potential since those are the greats of the Hobby.
I agree prices are settling. Will always hold value IMO.
PSA-10 1986 Fleer Jordan, under 300K, potentially to 200K seems like a reasonable entry point.
Better than the 700K+ price tag that Goldin received a few months ago, on only 2 sales.
1979 Gretzky OPC PSA-9 and 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA-10 have always had similar price tags.
Anticipate these will be about equal over the next year, settling in the middle.
Jordan documentary encouraged Jordan frenzy. If they do a documentary on Gretzky, Brady, Kobe, or Lebron,
another spike will happen.
There was a LOT of 1986 Fleer printed and there is still a lot of nice raw cards out there. I could see the population of 9’s growing significantly over the next 5-10 years.
Tens are a different story, for a variety of reasons.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
I was recently thinking the same thing about buying this "correction"
Would you do better buying one PSA 10, or 10 PSA 9's? At least with the PSA 9's, you can "dollar cost average" your pickups and buy them 1 at a time over several months (or while the correction continues).
At the prices they are selling for now I think it is still a bad investment. When the first two 10s sold for over $700k people were asking how long until one sold for $1m. They have dropped 60-70% since then and will continue to drop, in my opinion. It is not a rare card. If you want to invest in cards with up potential buy high grade vintage stars like Ruth and Mantle.
I am in the minority but don’t see the Mantle obsession continuing. Ruth, yes. My young adult kids are all crazy sports fans and have been since childhood. They know all about the Babe but they don’t know the difference between Mantle and the other stars from 1950’s-60’s. And, they certainly don’t care.
I doubt Mantle’s will have some massive drop off in prices but my bet is they won’t be the permanent gold standard. And I have 10% of my collection spent on Mantles.
My bet is the next gen will prefer Basketball / Football.
I think people who collect cards - on some level - will always have a desire for the cards that are/were considered elite and that list may grow but I don’t think it shrinks.
Whether you discuss those iconic vintage cards of Mantle, Ruth, Aaron, Jackie, Mays, Cobb, etc or cards like 81T Bird-Dr. J-Magic, 86F Jordan, 89 UD Griffey, 93 SP Jeter, etc, I think the card itself is almost separate and distinct from the player and is almost an icon unto itself.
As I have come to understand it, many people collect these cards because they were the cards people talked about (and paid up for) as often as because they ‘liked’ that player.
While I don’t think of (or recommend) cards as investments and myself play in the lower end of the graded pool, if graded at all, I am aware of values and collector trends and I see the 1952-69 base issue Mantles (some, not all) as always being desirable to people who collect for the love of the cards as opposed to the love of sports they represent. The art of 52, 53 and 56 as well as the card back on 1969 make me think those four would be the safest ‘bets’ for the gambling type.
Good luck in the hunt and let’s hope they all continue to trend up.
🤔
After we acquire the copies we want.
😇
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
@balco758
Also, I am with you on football and basketball offering a good present value when weighed against their price relative to baseball cards, current popularity and significant place in history.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
was just thinking this very thing....is now the time. I am looking to add a Jordan fleer (not sticker) to my PC and the prices have fallen incredibly.
I've seen a bunch of comments recently along the lines of some of the comments in this thread suggesting that given the recent drop in prices, now is a good time to buy or that prices are unlikely to go down to pre-pandemic levels. I am certainly no expert, having just recently gotten back into the hobby after a very long time and I have bought some cards on this dip because I couldn't resist but I'm wondering why people think this. It seems like prices were relatively stable for many years and then we got the pandemic-fueled bubble. To me, it seems just as likely, if not more likely, for prices to go back close to 2019 levels as the pandemic fades away and the people who got into the hobby to just try to make a quick buck or because they had more time on their hands than they knew what to do with stop buying cards. I'm not trying to be jerk or a downer. I'm just genuinely curious why this seems to be the prevailing opinion (maybe its not and my view is just skewed by a small sample size).
Jeez seems like a lot of other people have the same idea. I was going to wait a few months to see if this price drop is the beginning of a trend. But its starting to get very tempting to jump on one. I personally would be happy with a PSA 7 86 Jordan Fleer (not sticker) in my PC.
The prices are not done dropping. Be patient - still a ton of cards to come back from PSA. Lots of those submitters are going to be cash poor and looking to offload cards that will be in abundant supply. There are going to be some dynamite deals to be made in 2022.
Was doing this with Kobe rookies.. added a 10 for under 2500 and a 9 for 425.. just crazy good imo
1996 Topps Kobe RC (Base Card) was selling at over 5K in a PSA 10 not too long ago. Now they are at under $2,500. 87 Fleer Jordan sold as high as 58K in February. A couple of nights ago, one sold at auction for about 12K. 93 Jeter SP sold at under 40K with many sales between 20-25K. The latest one just sold at 8K. They were already selling between 6 & 7K before pandemic. So I guess the question is - how far will these continue to go down. I can't see the Jeter dropping more in price, however, the 87 Jordan was between 3K - 5K around the beginning of the pandemic and now the last sold at 12K. So does that mean it will also get closer to the prices before all this? Very tough to say but one thing is certain: Those who purchased cards earlier this year sure lost a lot of money if they still have them. With that said, it can also be a great time to purchase the cards that we felt we would never be able to purchase again. The only problem I see with purchasing cards today are that a lot of people bought for high and cant afford to sell at less - OR - although the card has dropped in price, they are still thinking and pricing to past sale prices at the high points which obviously no longer stand.
There is a very real possibility a lot of non hall of farmers continue to fall… but the Kobe, mj of the world will find support soon , and be the quickest to recover long term. They always will have buyers
thing first in discussing a buy back in opportunity is figuring out what the true ceiling was. a ton of variables there. and im not just talking fakes sales. how many wallstreet, investors, overnight on-paper crypto millionaires rushed into purchasing the jordan without really knowing a thing about graded cards to begin with? how many bought inflated jordans to realize “a loss” from previous earnings from elsewhere. how many drove the price up just to sell theirs. if youre buying back in and expect it to hit 500k+ anytime soon, you may be surprised. coupled with what you would owe on gains even if it did within the next two years, is it still an opportunity? if you think so, is it worth the risk? things can always change in the blink of an eye.
A missed opportunity from Sasha re the 1986 Fleer Jordan PSA 10. He deals in high end basketball and I think he has a good pulse of the hobby. Go to 15:30 of the video and his take on value of 200k-220K. He was more gung ho than his counterpart in the video. Not saying who is right or wrong, just your appetite for risk and profit. By the way, I am not affiliated with Sasha or the card shop.
Sasha is a pump and dumper and not a collector or someone I would take advice from. He makes good videos and has interesting content, but he pumps up cards he owns(Kobe, Jordan, soccer players, Durant…) and then sells them while he is pumping them up. Right now with everything dropping huge for most modern cards he has no idea what to buy and sell. Any stock broker can look smart during a big time bull market - it is those who can make money or salvage trades in very bad markets who really earn their money.
he gets it.
It think covid, people buying cards instead of paying their bills, and stimulus had a lot to do with the price jumps. Now people are shifting their money back to actual needs rather than a hobby. I love collecting - but you cant live in a card like you can a house and a card doesnt pay a dividend like a stock. They certainly have value - but not to the levels they were at. jmho
Good old Sasha T.
Hoping that all these brand new self proclaimed “card dealers” with zero card experience fade away with their modern basketball slabs. They can then create YouTube content on how they almost made it big and make cameo appearances in each other’s videos pumping each other up.😂
in 2017 I bought a fleer sticker in psa 9 for 700. in 2019 I sold it for 1400 happily...in 2021 it was worth 30k.....now I can pick one up for 7k. not sure I know where its going to be at the national but I'm guessing there's room to drop. the increase was too high too fast.