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Ken Goldin Video on State of the Hobby
mouschi
Posts: 687 ✭✭✭✭
Interesting video to watch - https://www.instagram.com/tv/CPUgCP5gW2j/?utm_medium=copy_link&fbclid=IwAR3UJ8n30pjpZXeshqFQFnlFyWeMrD6-g3B0vYE00ZbVicc9FXStlTjfNRE
Cliff's Notes: Tons of new money has come into the hobby ... and tons more new money will continue to come into the hobby.
Tanner Jones, Author of Confessions of a Baseball Card Addict - Now Available on Amazon!
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TY!
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
A smart investor is like a smart salesman - everyone knows the market goes up and goes down. The good ones know “why” they sold more or sold less and make adjustments before it happens again. I agree there is never a bad time to buy blue chip items, BUT there are also smarter times to buy blue chip cards or stocks.
Buying blue chips in 2016-2017 and then looking at them in 2021 and seeing how much you could have made is no different than with Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Nike....over that same time period. If now is such a great time to buy why not stay quiet and buy all the good stuff on sale while you can. The Jordan example was not a good one. You sell two of them for I believe the same exact price ($738k) - what are the mathematical chances that happens? Then you are surprised that a bunch come up for sale and the price tanks.
First question is why were those cards magically selling for $700k plus when they were $225k two months prior. People were pumping them up saying they would go to a million, and those folks that spent $600-700k were not given very good advice since they can buy the same Jordan rookie today for $280-320k. Wait a little more and they will be even cheaper - same for those who spent $28k on PSA 8’s and can now get them for $10-11k. Hindsight is 20/20 - foresight is much more difficult. You quoted Buffett and left out his best saying. “When others are fearful be greedy, and when others are greedy be fearful.” That describes late January to April very accurately imo.
Man, the start of that video was painful!
https://youtube.com/watch?v=XVZR3THOX_U
Hey...
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
Thank god we have guys like Ken Goldin to guide us through these turbulent times.
Those 700k Jordan sales are everything that is wrong with the hobby. Both sold to an investor in his expanded auction business, very clearly manipulated to get media attention. Card is down 60% off those fake sales. When this gasbag finally pops Ken will be the poster boy for all pumping that led to the dump.
One interesting comment he made was that PSA has finally caught up on submissions...
Is that good or bad overall for the market? More graded cards means more supply (of graded cards). But tougher grading standards means the higher grades will be tougher to find.
This ^
Like I stated above those “sales” have a lot of questions, and have heard the same that his investor bought them at $738k each. Why spend several $100k over market prices for the cards unless there is another motive? ALL Jordan’s bumped up in all grades, and then came crashing down in price. How many people got burned in the process? Difference between this and Wall Street is WS has regulations. IMO if he is making a video trying to explain things that means business is taking a hit and he is trying to drum up business and numbers.
Bottom line is I was always told to collect what you like and can afford.
I'm far from a Goldin apologist but I will say the Jordan sales are not proof of nefarious actions. If a few whales did indeed decide to buy a PSA 10 Jordan at just about any price, then that could explain a few ridiculously high sale prices. If someone has a few billion dollars, they probably don't care much if they spend $750k or $300k for a card as long as they get it fast. On the other hand, the sportscard market is lightly regulated, so anything is possible, including manipulated sales. If the Jordans follow previous spikes like the Clemente RC in 2016, prices fall back but at a much higher level than pre-spike sales and then start to climb again.
The Jordans sold to Timbaland, who announced an investment in Goldin’s operation right around the same time. 100% manipulated and no sale ever came close, because there are no buyers at that price.
All this bluster about "the industry" and 50 million this and 30 million that, and the owner of this business can't be bothered to put on a collared shirt for his hype video, or shell out a few dollars for a communications firm to give him some badly needed help.
I can't believe how much money is being spent on this hobby, and I also can't believe that a guy like that is at the pinnacle of it. Such strange times...
LOL - that's exactly what I was thinking especially after he stated he has an $8 Million Dollar Marketing Budget!
I didn’t watch the whole video, so I didn’t see that part, but there’s no way this is even close to true. They still have a mountain of cards to process.
Ken was quoting a Tweet from Nat Turner -- it's at the 41:40 mark of the video. But who knows whether it's true or not...
I googled the tweet and found this
Nat Turner
@natsturner
·
May 24
As of 5/18/2021,
@PSAcard
is completely caught-up on Order Entry. In other words, all PSA submissions have been entered into the PSA system, with the exception of a few problem orders (ex: no signature, incorrect card count, missing payment method).
Thanks. I didn't know the details behind those transactions. It's not a card I'm remotely interested in owning, so I haven't followed it. My comments were more general in nature in that there are legit sales where wealthy people pay stupid money well over market if they really want to own something.
auction house owner stating everythin> @80sOPC said:
this was more likely a “deal with an influencer”. timba’s name was lent, zero money was likely exchanged and if the card continued to soar and/or other jordans actually sold thru goldin for that price, timba woulda been cut a check. same thing goes for the ray allen skit of him buying his own super 1/1 that was promoted during this same time period. ray was prolly just given the card to make that quick 30 sec vid of him receiving said card. the actual auction proceeds most likely came from in-house and written off as a marketing expense.
ken is quasi smart when it comes to ken. always has. these “product placement” & influencing techniques happen all the time in everyday life. of course they are more associated w fixed priced, branded items like gatorade or coca cola. using these influencing techniques to “influence” the card market is questionable at best, imo.
Agree Blurry, I don’t believe money exchanged hands in the Timba “deal” and agree that a lot of these athletes and stars becoming interested in cards is modern product placement.
Goldin is about Goldin and the fact he is considered one of the big auction houses today speaks to how well he markets himself.
just watch what happens when the lebron chrome 10 gets discreetly mentioned in “keeping up w/ the card-dashians“.
no seriously. you all will have to watch. because i certainly wont be! 😉
but seriously. thats all that happened. and the real money was made on all the 7, 8 and 9s that recvd the bump in pricing. i bet w a lil time invested, you could prove that most of the ones that got sold during the goldin rush were sucked up within the last year and relisted by a small group of individuals. maybe not most. or even half of them. but enough to make millions quickly.
It would be ridiculously easy to manipulate a cards price. And with no regulation, close to zero risk. Too easy.
During his first auction, I told Ken that he had multiple counterfeit items in the auction. He literally told me he didn't care and didn't pull the items.
I can’t watch these will all his crazy mannerisms, sniffles, eyes randomly shifting and bugging out. My favorite is the way he drinks bottled water; it’s the same way I take a swig of my mouthwash every night. We both slosh it around our mouths. Except I spit it out into the sink. His mannerisms are crazy. He needs a PR man and should leave these to someone a lot more polished to be the face of his business.
His ego won't allow him to
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
He has managed to build a few pretty big hobby businesses by being a pretty great marketer, I'd suggest he doesn't need any PR help. I mean, we are talking about him and he has been everywhere the past 12 months, his PR is on point.
Where he does need help is with business planning and longevity, Goldin and his Dad went bankrupt once and I get the sense this whole new large auction house thing will go boom as well.
The card market has taken a big nose dive recently just other day an Tyson panini psa 8 sold for $4k that’s 50% less than last sale same grade..Jordan rc are taking big hit also
Market peaked last week of February first week of March.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
key stuff is up. 98% of the other stuff is down. you have to keep in mind, most of these new players fall into the "trends" & "hype" of social media. a ton had/have no idea of what they were doing. cards just became the new hot thing of the moment. alot of these guys are also invested in nfts and crypto. both of those absolutely tanked which gives them less ammunition to play in the card market. and that's fine by me. pretty sure we all had to learn the hard way. i know i did.
eta: look at the current buyers remorse thread. the shaq card was highly pumped on social media. that and the griffey ud. both are absolutely epic cards, no doubt. were they worthy of $5K sales prices? imo, no. but i guarantee you if you connected the dots, youd find a small sample of folks sucked them all up cheaply, then pumped the heck outta them.
same w/ soto. a certain & very well social media influencer bought mounds of base soto chrome from me. used several various ebay ids based outta new york and new jersey. then dropped a "undervalued" note in a ig live and he went to the moon. now the same guy is touting to stick to vintage. he also bought a ton of vintage from me about 3 months prior while he dropped soto pumps.
Indeed.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
thought this was interesting considering his take on the state of the hobby:
source: ig blast
I'm still laughing about this two days later. LOL
The Doomsday Collection
Dallas Cowboys Ring of Honor | All-Time Dallas Cowboys | Bob Lilly Master | Pro Football HOF Dallas Cowboys
After the 2020/2021 boom bubble bursts I feel the negatives effects could continue to end of the decade. Not talking about prices dropping across board to pre-2020 levels but the negatives to the hobby which will have a portion of it's pre-2020 life force sucked out of it. Not to mention ancillary effects such as Grading company's pricing levels, supplies etc. Those entities will stubbornly cling to the new price structures and be another stake to the heart of pre-2020 Boom collectors.
It will take a while to ascertain a list of all of the enjoyable parts of the hobby that are permanently lost but here is one example:
Registry collecting of lower priced sets. Collectors of that stuff who did it for love not money are not going to spend $50 $75 or more to grade a card that's worth under $10. It was difficult to justify at the pre-boom PSA rates but now forget it.
Unless otherwise specified my posts represent only my opinion, not fact.
Ken Goldin
Ken Goldin
Everybody knows what he holdin’
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
see the edit. sad you still dont get it.
A statement that in Jan/Feb 2021 some might have believed without question, in May/June 2021 it's something to be questioned. Seems like Mr Goldin hopes his comments will fight the future, but this bubbles a burstin' and the fact he made the statement to me says he knows it.
Unless otherwise specified my posts represent only my opinion, not fact.
No issues I get your POV.. I'm in agreement on 90% of what you post on these boards so a very good hit ratio even if not on this particular item.
Unless otherwise specified my posts represent only my opinion, not fact.
90%? cmon! dont give me that much credit! 😉
I’m not sure grading of low value commons was ever a great part of the hobby. I mean if the card isn’t worth a multiple of the grading fees why slab it? So your set takes up a whole closet and is a pita to view?
Listen I am 100% on board with the value add grading brings to the hobby, but for set collectors, the hobby was just fine before grading. Never understood the instinct to get a grade in a 1989 topps hockey common that you intend to keep. Its in your hand, look at it, upgrade or keep it. Why the need to have Doug from Souther California tell you its a NM-MT card. You presumably knew that already which is why you submitted it. The exact same card is going to come back just more difficult to store and view.
You make a good point for sports especially. There are collectors of low values, near zero demand stuff is what I shoudl have mentioned i was referring. For me it's late 70's and 80's TV show cards
Unless otherwise specified my posts represent only my opinion, not fact.
Anyone do this? Is there a minimum?
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
i was posting this more along the lines of him ironically casting this out in hopes of netting a bunch of new fish when he just said the market was scolding! 😉
While this may not be popular to many here it's based on tried and true financial and human behavior over century's. There are no logical reasons Trading cards alone is immune to bubble stages .
I do not expect a full fledged panic phase when it comes to Vintage given supply and demand, but for Junk Wax era or later non-blue chips most definitely possible. One thing for sure Euphoria phase is over, regardless of what Mr Goldin is hoping to portray.
Does any of this seem familiar for cards over the past 14 months with focus on Jan 2021 - May 2021
A displacement occurs when investors get enamored by a new paradigm, such as an innovative new technology or previously overlooked unexplored market
2. Boom
Prices rise slowly at first, following a displacement, but then gain momentum as more and more participants enter the market, setting the stage for the boom phase. During this phase, the asset in question attracts widespread media coverage. Fear of missing out on what could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity spurs more speculation, drawing an increasing number of investors and traders into the fold.
Euphoria
During this phase, caution is thrown to the wind, as asset prices skyrocket. Valuations reach extreme levels during this phase as new valuation measures and metrics are touted to justify the relentless rise, and the "greater fool" theory—the idea that no matter how prices go, there will always be a market of buyers willing to pay more—plays out everywhere.
Profit-Taking
In this phase, the smart money—heeding the warning signs that the bubble is about at its bursting point—starts selling positions and taking profits. But estimating the exact time when a bubble is due to collapse can be a difficult exercise because, as economist John Maynard Keynes put it, "the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
Panic
It only takes a relatively minor event to prick a bubble, but once it is pricked, the bubble cannot inflate again. In the panic stage, asset prices reverse course and descend as rapidly as they had ascended. Investors and speculators, faced plunging values of their holdings, now want to liquidate at any price. As supply overwhelms demand, asset prices slide sharply.
Unless otherwise specified my posts represent only my opinion, not fact.
BTW I personally consider Junk Wax from 1981-1994 and yes that includes 1984 Donruss Baseball but not stuff like 1986 Fleer Basketball. Using the common starting point of 1987 excludes too much mass-produced product by Donruss and Fleer from 1981-1986 and Topps from 1982-1986. I do agree though that population in 1987 exceeded the vast numbers form 1981-1986
Unless otherwise specified my posts represent only my opinion, not fact.
There’s a caveat to this:
If you buy cards because you like them and not as an investment vehicle then they are completely immune to any boom and bust cycles.
If you sell cards, expect to knock about 20-33% of what big auction houses command because you are not them and do not have the eyes (clients) they do. If you get closer, awesome, but I wouldn’t expect it.
Belief defying prices are not always actual; some are and some are not.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
Case in point? These two beauties were “worth” a combined $4,000 at one point. Did it actually happen, though?
Mine stayed put. 😎
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
Check out his new Instagram video. Monumental ball, the HR hit the day Ripken broke Gehrig’s streak. But then there’s this: “I was there that night, in Cal Ripken’s personal family box.”
This guy is such a self promoting clown.
talk about trying to > @Cooptown said:
Unless otherwise specified my posts represent only my opinion, not fact.
Someone should ask him where he sees the 86 Jordan PSA 10 market heading over the next 6 months.