Learned from the Past
Gazes
Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
Once in awhile we will see coins for sale in a dealer's inventory (whose inventory normally moves very quick) that we are interested in but don't pull the trigger. We check back and the coin is still there and we begin to wonder why it hasn't sold. More and more time goes by and it still has not sold. Now we don't want it because it seems no one else does!
Some years ago this happened to with a lib quarter eagle that was condition census, pcgs, and cac. Price very reasonable too. It sat for ever and I didn't buy it because of that reason even though I knew the coin checked every box. I guess I assumed something had to be wrong with it. Well it did eventually sell. That particular date never came up again in that condition or better. Then the same coin went up for auction and sold for about 50% more. It came up for auction again and went for even more. It cost the new owner more than twice what the dealer was originally selling it for. I doubt we will see that coin again for awhile.
Fast forward to now. Saw a coin on the same site that I considered buying when it was first posted but held off. Months later still there. Like before it had all the boxes checked---pcgs, cac, very rare (I doubt another date of this coin will become available in any condition in the next couple of years) and reasonable price. Didn't make the same mistake---bought it and was able to get a nice discount. Lesson learned.
Comments
Pics please!!
Some coins just fall through the cracks on a dealers website and there’s no logical explanation as to why. In your first example if a dealer is selling mostly half eagles and he has an odd quarter eagle for sale it might go unnoticed. I’ve spoken to dealers before and beautiful coins with all the bells and whistles which they expect to sell immediately for whatever unknown reasons just don’t sell. I also think the longer a coin goes unsold the more difficult it becomes to sell because collectors think there must be something wrong with it.
One sitting in my watch list right now.
Had the same thought this morning.
Out of my budget, but have only seen two of them.
Got to decide how far to take this niche of the collection.
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
Congrats @Gazes!
That's happened to me too. The unknown for any given coin whether you mind missing it later. Some times I don't mind, some times i do. I tend to miss it fewer times than I don't miss it so my track record is ok.
Would love to see photos of your coin
A few points
Thanks for your post. The OP wasnt really about lib quarter eagles but more to say that simply because a coin sits in inventory you should not eliminate it. If you know your series, you should trust your own evaluation.
Let me address a couple of your thoughts on the liberty quarter eagle series. There are alot of cliches in coins and when it comes to lib quarter eagles many use to be true. Times have changed. The coin I referred to in my OP was a Philadelphia mint coin from the 1840s. It was not a "sexy" dahlonega or other branch mint coin. Those 1840s philadelphia mint coins are very hard to find in ms63 or better. I would say they are undervalued but the prices on them have soared (especially if CAC) if you can find them. If a 1842 lib QE from philly came up for sale ms63 it would be snapped up in an instance for a record price.
I always hear reasons people say that collectors dont collect lib quarter eagles. Size, length of the series, etc.But people do collect this series. there are many more collectors of this series even by date than most people imagine. For the past couple years better date (and there are ALOT of tough dates) lib QEs are just not out there. And when they are they are snapped up at strong prices. I have started a couple other collections primarily because of the lack of better lib quarter eagles out there to buy.
Finally you mention some collectors dont want the best grades or dont want gold coins. I'm not sure how it relates to my OP but of course that is true, our hobby offers a thousand different ways to collect.
Thanks for your thoughts
This is a thought provoking thread. It is definitely true that i have a negative bias when a coin sits in a dealers inventory too long - assuming that there must be something i don't know about a particular coin. I also like @Gazes comment about trusting your own evaluation of a particular series.
I don't collect lib quarter eagle as a primary focus but i do try and buy some of the more difficult dates across mintmarks. I try to act quickly when i see a nice one. Lately, i am chasing the market.
I laid out the big bucks for an 1848 CAL. quarter eagle because it is a huge piece of history. I own an 1848 without the CAL. because it goes with it. I would not buy the other dates in the 1840s, even in AU because they don't interest me. I know they are rare, but what's the point? I can't complete the series. I don't even want the 1841, "The Little Princess." It does not fit in my collection. Let someone else enjoy it.
I like the pieces in the 1900s because I think that they are attractive. They are certainly more attractive then their $5 Liberty counterparts, but what's the point? I can't complete the set. Even the pieces in the 1890s are tough. I learned that when I couldn't fill a want list when I was a dealer.
I have a few fun examples, like an 1857-O, which was the last quarter eagle the New Orleans mint issued. It's very attractive and it came from the Brand Collection. I bought it many years ago. Another one, an 1853, is a family heirloom which came from my wife's family. One of her ancestors received it for jury duty. An aunt wanted to get the money out of it, so I bought it.
But there is nowhere to go with a complete set ...
@billjones I get that liberty quarter eagles aren't for you. Thats terrific. I like them and can enjoy them even without finishing the series. As I said before, my OP really didnt have anything to do with this series but instead my lesson to not simply pass on a coin because it's been in a dealer's inventory a long time. I really dont understand your posts about "what's the point" in collecting them or that you dont like Philadelphia QEs from the 1840s. Regardless, glad to know your thoughts.
I completed the Classic Head $2.50 Red Book set. It’s short, but challenging set that is within reach.
As for the other stuff, unless you are a billionaire, you can’t collect everything. I would rather have a William the Conqueror British penny or a Julius Caesar denarius than any of those rare $2.50 dates. You can get those coins in nice condition for a lot less money too.
Without naming the coin or the dealer, I have a similar story to share, but so far, no happy ending:
I started looking for a certain key date in a high grade last August. I saw on collectorscorner.com a lovely coin that met my needs (grade, PCGS, CAC, but most importantly, nice eye appeal). The dealer had it listed at around $24,995, about $2,500 or more higher than all recent auction sales of coins with CAC’s, also with nice eye appeal. In doing research, I saw this dealer was the high bidder in an auction just one month earlier for this coin for about $20,900 with the bp. Even though there are 26 with CAC’s in this grade, I made what I feel is a very generous offer of $23,300, significantly more than other recent auction sales. The dealer counter offered at $24,495. I passed. Looking back, I should have bitten the bullet and accepted, even though I’d be overpaying.
Lo and behold, that coin has remained in the dealers inventory to this day. Even though no other coins have come on the market in the nine months since, the dealer raised his listing price several months ago. I reached out a couple of days ago, with my tail between my legs, and let the dealer know I’d accept his prior offer of $24,495. He replied back that his best price is now $25,950! I passed, and will wait for one of the 26 to come up in auction.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
I've run into the same situation as well.
When offering a second time much later, it may be better to offer the same price you offered the first time.
Just as the bitterness of low quality outlasts the sweetness of a bargain, I have noticed that I kick myself a lot longer for having passed on a coin I really wanted because I thought it was priced to high, than I do for paying more than I had hoped. We collect because we love the coins, not the prices.
Perhaps, but a good price makes it much sweeter.
This thread makes me think about the realtors I talked to recently. Days on the market makes buyers think there’s an issue, even if there’s not. If you find your deal, you e got to be willing to trust your instincts and make the purchase that’s right for you. A good lesson in a lot of regards.
Agree. Getting buried in a nice coin is not so sweet.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
And then some coins really do sit in inventory for a reason. The coin that was the beginning of the end for me in the U.S. market sat in a dealer’s inventory for over three months even though this dealer often flips coins in days. It had all of the bells and whistles except for two facts. #1. The price was $2,000 higher than the “Coin Facts” quote. #2. It was over graded which left it over priced by at least 40%.
Interesting post. Did the dealer give a reason why the price had gone up while it sat in his inventory?
No. And when I asked why he needed the markup he's looking for over his $20,900 cost, seeing the coin had not sold via his website, collectorscorner.com, or his other marketing efforts in nine months, as I'm now offering him a $3,595 profit with my offer, he didn't answer that either.
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Reminds me of two old sayings:
"Strike while the iron is hot." and "When you snooze, you lose."
Many times I've gone to a coin show and saw a nice coin at a good price. Since I just got to the show, I'd walk around to see what else was available. When I went back to buy the coin, it was usually already gone.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
The coin could very well, be overpriced. But here are a few things to consider: 1) The dealer’s maximum bid might have been quite a bit higher than his winning bid; 2) Overall, the market has strengthened during the past several months; 3) You don’t know what other offers (if any) he has declined.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
All true, but the bottom line is the coin is still sitting there after NINE months, with everyone who has looked at it passing at that price that he is offering! And yes, silly me, as I should have bought it when he first offered it to me at that $3,595 profit (about $2,000 higher than all other recent auction sales).
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
All also true - but for the part about “silly” you.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Perhaps the difference is paying more than you could vs paying more than you should. Nobody wants to be buried in a coin, even a nice one. But no collector wants to be kicking himself/herself for a decision not to buy based on price.
And maybe an individual can’t know which decision was best until time has passed. From what @winesteven says, he may have made the wrong decision the first time, but the right decision the second time. Waiting for another coin at this point seems like the right thing to do. You want to make sure you are happy with any purchase at that price point.
Winsteve,
since you brought up your own personal experience allow me to chime in. You are discussing an expensive coin, anything around $25k is big money to me and to most. However it sounded like you seriously wanted it therefore it's not just any coin since it has met your expectations I assume in every way.
What if the dealer won it for $15k and PCGS Price guide and recent auction prices were the same as you said, does that mean he should sell it for under $20k. Who cares what he paid for it is what I am trying to say, it isn't anyone's business, it makes no difference. The bottomline is you have auction prices to compare it to and don't even have to check PCGS Price Guide because they could be stale or inaccurate based on how they are derived.
Why are you wasting your time and worrying about his profit margin, shouldn't you only be concerned whether you obtain the coin or not. We are talking a $1000 difference between you and him so that amount cannot bury you based on the high amount. Why are you allowing $1000 to stand in your way from acquiring this great piece. You should only be concerned with winning Winsteve and not let anything get in your way especially a nonsensical dealer who raises his prices only after his holding period increased.
Get the dam coin and don't be stopped by a measly $1000 (I know $1000 isn't really measly but in this case based on a large purchase price it is percentage wise speaking).
Win it Steve!
This is the rub.
If another comes along, all is forgiven. If another does not come along, it festers. There are a few things like this in life.
I just resolved a walk away from several years ago. There was a beautiful copper BN token I wanted but it was out of my collecting focus. I passed and immediately regretted it. I would still regret it today except I just picked up what I think is an even better specimen, a unicorn RB token that looks 80% red that I didn’t even think existed but came out in this strong market. Of course, I paid much more this time but the multi-year longing helped prepare me to win.
This last point is interesting as it seems many of my strong price wins are based on losing or walking away from other pieces that I think about for years.
Zoins,
one can also say you were simply lucky to have waited and found a better example. You didn't know it was going to happen and you were dam lucky that it did. May not have gone that way the next time around. I rather err on the side of obtaining it because I believe possession is 99% everything and if I acquired something by mistake I can always sell/dump it rather than looking backwards and regretting things over time. I like being in control as often as I can. I hate regretting anything in the past. What the future holds we don't know and have no control over but if given an opportunity I always choose taking it first and dealing with the outcome later. If a dealer can sell a coin so can I.
Stretching a bit is good, especially for rare items, but no one likes to be buried. The issue is that no one has a crystal ball and everyone has a budget to work with. Some people are comfortably within theirs, some people are already stretching it. Even TDN mentioned he recently lost as an underbidder for a coin. I’m guessing @winesteven wasn’t thinking for $1,000 more but $4,000 more. I don’t know how the coin fits into his overall budget.
Here's another example for @panexpoguy's "maybe an individual can’t know which decision was best until time has passed."
There was a big name exonumia sale years ago that was discussed here. I could go for several rare mid-priced items, or the most expensive item. I chose to go for more than less and won the rare mid-priced tokens. I still thought about the high priced item years later, but told myself getting more rare pieces was more important and getting a single one. Lo' and behold, years later, I was able to pick up another specimen of the expensive piece, but still have never seen the mid-priced pieces offered again. Of course, the mid-price and high-priced items both can show up at any time since they are all rare, but it was a decision of waiting for one thing vs. waiting for several things.
There are coins from the June 2006 Heritage Long Beach show I did not buy and wished I had. To my knowledge, the coins have not been sold since.
Yes, it goes both ways. There are things I’m waiting to come around again too. It’s a good incentive to have a healthy lifestyle to live a long time!
It's like the gorgeous girl in high school that no one asked out because they thought she was out of their league. Then you see she married someone that you would have never thought she would even pay attention to. She said that no one asked her out in high school, but this guy was nice and asked.
I understand what you’re saying but the problem is if you pay $25k for a coin that last sold for $15k good luck selling it short term if for whatever reason you have to.
You can certainly sell it, but perhaps to net $12,375, which is $15K minus a 17.5% BP (aka 0% sellers fee). This means, you are paying twice what you could sell it for.
The point may well be though that having been at auction (assuming all other things are equal) this coin has already had its opportunity to be fairly priced since no one before wanted to pay more that what the winning bidder paid.