NO END IN SIGHT FOR STRONG ACTIVITY
Zoins
Posts: 34,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
The coin market is running strong.
The following is an excerpt on the market for Legend. I'm just adding the mraket infomration. Click through for information on collection sales and new inventory.
https://www.legendnumismatics.com/market_reports/no-end-in-sight-a-real-bull-market-has-started/
WE ARE LIVING A DREAM
We’re four months in to a bull market. The first signs actually started in November. It was not until the FUN Auction when things blew wide open. There has been only a two week lull for us at the beginning of April. Our activity is like a great dream. We’re worried sick now about the dream becoming a nightmare. WE HAVE REALLY RUN OUT OF A SUPPLY OF FRESH NEAT COINS. We are not alone. This is from one of the largest dealers in the biz: Our inventory is the lowest I’ve seen in 28 years. POWERFUL WORDS.
Non activity leading from a severe lack of coins will choke our market unless we land a big deal in May (same really goes for just about everyone else). Yet the dream of more buyers then sellers only seems to be deepening. Our recent Auction and the Heritage sales more then proved how strong the market is. We saw numbers that did not represent hundreds of buyers, we saw HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF EYE BALLS and thousands of aggressive bidders. KABOOM! These are NOT investors, they seem to be people legitamtely collecting coins.
The coin market is NOT a bubble like we think the modern sports card craze seems to be (in our opinion). Having a newer LeBron James card sell for $5,200,000.00 with out much time to solidify is really too much money speculating. Think about what kind of killer coin collection can be assembled for that money. People have been collecting coins for hundreds of years. Sports cards, not so long. And the one bubble that already has started to burst-the NFT’s. Never understood them any way. Plus, the Feds seem to have their number and they are highly taxable with is now causing them to attract less money. The rare coin market will continue to be more stable long term then all of these pop up areas.
The dream of a bull market has no boundries right now. However, as we warned before, a lack of coins could make it seem like it is stopping until an auction or two arrives with a bunch of fresh coins. Do NOT be fooled if there seems to be a slow down. You will be paying more for any great coins at least for the next few months.
Do you agree? Certainly prices seem to be high for many pieces now.
And if so, how long do you think it will last?
Comments
I believe you and I have seen this in the exonumia field for the past two years now. And it only strengthened during the lock downs for Covid. I really hope it is new collectors coming in and bringing enthusiasm into our hobby. Of course, objectively speaking, the sudden high prices do look sort of look like a bubble. It all depends on if these people with money stick around for the long haul.
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
I'm seeing it. I've been putting together a matched set of Peace dollars PCGS graded AU55. I have 4 coins left to go and of course one of them is the 1934-S which was going for $500 this past year. Now that I have the funds to buy one the price guide just jumped up to $650 this week. Almost all dates across all grades have jumped up even the common dates. There's definitely been a lack of decent problem free pieces for sale on Ebay or at various dealers. Similar happenings with Morgan dollars too.
In exonumia, I believe it is a bubble, that will last at least through q3 this year and then start to deflate through 2022.
As a somewhat recent entrant, the history, price and availability made tokens a nice respite from the true coin world and a distraction during the pandemic. While I believe there may be a few new entrants, I also believe that there are multiple dealers/ speculators entering this area. As prices rise, my activity and interest is slowing. The thoughts of open air events, vacations, nice dinners, seeing friends will get more and more priority. When the price of a token was a dinner at the diner and cheap beers, the token won, as the cost rises to a nice round of golf, or an outdoor dinner at your favorite restaurant with a great bottle of wine, the dinner wins.
So my belief is the increased costs combined with the opening up of alternative entertainment will lead to a reduced demand. The only counter argument I see is that with the government stimulus, there is still a lot of money out there. Hence why I think that as the stimulus slow, I see a downturn coming.
So even if there are a few new collectors that stay, I believe the price increases will drive others out or to cash out.
Individual Hobbies do better under these circumstance and since these awful circumstances will most likely carry on, we should be fine
Is this strong demand present across the entire hobby?
Reading posts on this forum and articles, I infer it's happening for the coins preferred by members here across many series along with silver and gold substitutes. I doubt the coins most collectors own and buy increased much at all.
I commend you for using all caps for the title
Apropos
1Q: but will they stay?
Boredom w/lock down plus stimulus cash = boom. Once those two factors abate, back to normal for the average stuff.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
You should commend Laura as it's her caps. I just copy and pasted.
Are you reading all the posts
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1056774/error-coins#latest
We are entering uncharted territory. Fed interest rates are rock bottom low but inflation is now starting to roar (have you bought any food or lumber lately?) Expect pronouncements from government officials denying there is much in the way of inflation. They have to keep "official" inflation numbers down so they don't have to raise things like Social Security payments.
Collectibles like coins are going to have appeal to many as a way to escape the effects of inflation. Irrational run-ups in value may take place. Common "stuff" is still going to be common "stuff" and the truth is most US collector coins are common "stuff". Will this comm "stuff" be able to hold its value in the long run?
Think before you buy and be more selective than ever.
@291fifth said:
Common "stuff" is still going to be common "stuff" and the truth is most US collector coins are common "stuff". Will this comm "stuff" be able to hold its value in the long run?
Not in current purchasing power, for a variety of reasons.
Yea, lots of New collectors and lots of people attending coin shows.
A question for those facing high prices. Do you pay up or walk away and live to bid another day?
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I used to pay up but I haven't seen anything I just had to have to go way up on the prices. One item I wanted badly
I paid up and still lost and its been on a dealers website for sale ever since.
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CoinsAreFun Toned Silver Eagle Proof Album
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Gallery Mint Museum, Ron Landis& Joe Rust, The beginnings of the Golden Dollar
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More CoinsAreFun Pictorials NGC
I'm pretty sure things will come down once people start going on trips again. Of course, it may still may sense to buy rarities that only come around once a generation at current prices to avoid missing out for a long time.
This is a rich person's perspective. For most people, when food and has gas become more expensive they buy fewer discretionary items. While they'd love to find an inflation hedge, they don't have any money left over.
I'm also not sure that collectibles are a logical hedge. There is no reason for their price to move with inflation. They are purely discretionary purchases. I'm not going to start paying $250 for ms65 Morgans because gas hit $4 per gallon.
I've seen some of this even for raw coins, like 7070 type. If a nice raw 2 cent piece or 20 cent pieces pops up somewhere, it's usually gone pretty quickly. I started on a Littleton album of odd denominations (2c, 3c silver and nickel, 20c) about a year ago. The coins were easier to come by then, now decent pieces are few and far between and cost a bit more too.
Also glad I got my 1921 Peace dollars some time ago.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
Strong demand --> higher prices --> fresh material starts to show up --> excitement --> higher prices --> rinse & repeat.
COVID has made it difficult for many dealers to source new material. Everyone says the same thing. I've had a few dealers call me lately asking me to sell them stuff. I did a big pruning a year ago.
I imagine it will run for quite a while. We've been in a soft market for many years. The pendulum does what the pendulum is apt to do. At some point, many collectors will take advantage of the opportunity to "cash in".
This is nice to finally see, but we have a ways to go:
There's been some good fresh material lately on multiple venues.
I buy pretty common stuff, but the fresh material has been nice. No one wanted to sell when it was cheap, so the market being up is at least a chance to get some good stuff. Speculatively speaking, who knows if we’re overpaying now or getting deals on the way up. The joy of ownership has to count for something and being able to own the things you collect has to have some value in the equation.
I think that the people who have kept their jobs and have disposable income can now spend money on things that they haven't been able to before since many are working from home and don't have commuting costs, outside breakfast/lunch costs, office politics coworker gift costs etc. These people have money now to spend on coins or even getting a pet for the first time as there are also many who are getting pets now. Once more people go back to in person work and commuting, this bubble will fade.
If you don’t look at the actual numbers, the slope of that chart sure makes it look like there’s been more than an approximately 17% decline in the past 10 years!
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Isn't 17% bad enough?
I haven't really noticed that big a difference in the price of food.
Now lumber is a different story. Of course my house has decided it wants a new roof at the worst time. I have planned to insulate my roof when the time comes for a new roof. We have an open beam house and the only way to insulate is to do lattice and foam under a new deck added to the top.
Had a very experienced roofer come yesterday and quoted me a job we thought was best and I accepted...YEAH!
I wasn't planning on going with a metal roof, but seems to be the only thing to do at this point rationally. 1st money saver is I have enough 2x4's to do the lattice under the new deck(now standing seam metal). Between early last year and now the price of a 4x8 sheet of OSB board has gone from around $12 a sheet to $40! That is a chunk of change difference!
My roofer explained it better than anyone. Even before Covid the production was way behind. I hadn't thought about it but the bad hurricanes last year destroyed over 500,000 roofs in the SE. Couple that with the Covid shut downs and you see the demand is through the roof for the available supply. This should be a temporary thing and I almost went the flex-seal route and wait till next year scenario!
Now lets just hope these cash strapped counties around the country don't jack home appraisals through the roof because this lumbar shortage is pushing home prices to celestial levels.