Has card collecting become an outlet for high stakes gambling?

pootshwan

While I know this kid is as close to a can't miss as they come these prices still surprise me when you can get all time great HOFer rookie cards for less than what this card is going for. This card still has SIX days left...

2018 Bowman Chrome Gold Kelenic- https://ebay.us/YGP8ht
 

Here are just a couple of all time great rookie cards that ended for less money than what this Kelenic is going for. These two players are widely considered inside the top 20 best baseball players to ever play the game.

1954 Topps Hank Aaron- https://ebay.us/vIBVpr

1955 Sandy Koufax- https://ebay.us/LKGQYY

If it is about investment, the Aaron and Koufax are sound investments that will continue to increase year after year. Kelenic could potentially turn out to be JD Drew. If it's about collecting greats of the game....well they've already acieved that. So how do you make sense of what is going on? 

Copyboy1

Well, if you want to compare it to the stock market, think of it like:

• Some people want the tried-and-true blue chips like Apple, Johnson & Johnson or Disney.
• Some people want the hottest IPO, knowing that it could become the next Netflix or it could become the next WebVan or Pets.com.

DaveSpiwak

There is some undeniable overlap between gambling and investing. For me, it largely comes down to how certain the payoff is in terms of whether an activity is investment or gambling. At some point, when the payoff is uncertain enough, it crosses over to gambling in my mind.

The Aaron/Koufax purchase falls more in line with investing. It has an expected return that isn’t all that lucrative most likely, but it’s a near certainty that it will increase in price. The Kelenic is more of gambling in terms of many different outcomes that range all the way from the card becoming near worthless...to it being the next Trout.

JoeBanzai

Older stuff more like investing, new stuff gambling.

addicted2ebay

@JoeBanzai said:
Older stuff more like investing, new stuff gambling.

Collect, invest, gamble.. ect

Cards have it all lol

pootshwan

@Copyboy1 said:
Well, if you want to compare it to the stock market, think of it like:

• Some people want the tried-and-true blue chips like Apple, Johnson & Johnson or Disney.
• Some people want the hottest IPO, knowing that it could become the next Netflix or it could become the next WebVan or Pets.com.

The difference in the stock scenario is the price is usually a fraction of those well established companies....Kelenic is already outselling Koufax and Aaron in mid grades

pootshwan

@DaveSpiwak said:
There is some undeniable overlap between gambling and investing. For me, it largely comes down to how certain the payoff is in terms of whether an activity is investment or gambling. At some point, when the payoff is uncertain enough, it crosses over to gambling in my mind.

The Aaron/Koufax purchase falls more in line with investing. It has an expected return that isn’t all that lucrative most likely, but it’s a near certainty that it will increase in price. The Kelenic is more of gambling in terms of many different outcomes that range all the way from the card becoming near worthless...to it being the next Trout.

Well said, I agree with that 100%

blurryface

i can paint the canvas however you want. i can make strong arguments that vintage can be a gamble just as much as modern. conversely i can paint the picture that modern is just as much of an investment as vintage, perhaps with even higher returns.

neither one is synonymous w gambling or investing unless you want it to be.

so what's the use?

AFLfan

It can be if you want to collect in that fashion, but for many it remains just collecting.

pootshwan

@addicted2ebay said:

@JoeBanzai said:
Older stuff more like investing, new stuff gambling.

Collect, invest, gamble.. ect

Cards have it all lol

Truly, maybe that is why it has boomed so much over the past year...many different ways to take part in the hobby.

Autos4Alex

@pootshwan said:

@Copyboy1 said:
Well, if you want to compare it to the stock market, think of it like:

• Some people want the tried-and-true blue chips like Apple, Johnson & Johnson or Disney.
• Some people want the hottest IPO, knowing that it could become the next Netflix or it could become the next WebVan or Pets.com.

The difference in the stock scenario is the price is usually a fraction of those well established companies....Kelenic is already outselling Koufax and Aaron in mid grades

How much is tesla trading for vs the blue chips?

BLUEJAYWAY

Well, they do put the odds on sports cards boxes for the "hits". And odds are synonymous with gambling.

pootshwan

@BLUEJAYWAY said:
Well, they do put the odds on sports cards boxes for the "hits". And odds are synonymous with gambling.

Yea, you are right. Get "lucky" and get a big hit that you beat the odds on. In 2020 opening up boxes definitely resembles gambling

blurryface

@pootshwan said:

@BLUEJAYWAY said:
Well, they do put the odds on sports cards boxes for the "hits". And odds are synonymous with gambling.

Yea, you are right. Get "lucky" and get a big hit that you beat the odds on. In 2020 opening up boxes definitely resembles gambling

flipping coins is a 50/50 shot. all coin collectors are gamblers?

no way opening packs could just be fun, huh?

back to my original post, one can paint this anyway they want.

one could say that opening 1989 upper deck was gambling back in the day. $1 a pack? WHAT?