Will the end of the Covid epidemic have a positive or negative impact on numismatics??

2manycoins2fewfunds

Thoughts?

AuldFartte

Definitely positive IMHO. I mean, after all, coin shows will make a big comeback!

jmlanzaf

Probably net negative.

1. All collectibles got hot during the shut down.
2. You still have economic issues and the easy money will start do dry up.
3. The moratorium on evictions and foreclosures will end which will add to the economic issues.
4. Coin shows were fading in popularity even before this. Some people are never returning to normal so minor or local coin shows may be a casualty.

Or not.

Frankly, I don't care. Of all Covid related things, this is the least important to me.

derryb

I'm sure it will result in another commemorative coin.

ctf_error_coins

Numismatics is red hot right now. Can it get hotter? We will find out. It certainly will heat up for the next few weeks

skier07

It will have a positive impact for collectors. We’ll be able to attend shows and act like normal people socializing with fellow collectors and dealers. We’ll also be able to lot view and attend both small and large auctions. Will it have a positive effect on bottom line? I don’t know, but I’m looking forward to the return of normalcy.

coinpalice

i have been selling a lot lately, it might have something to do with the 1,400 stimulus they just handed out. i do know as more people go to work, less down time to browse and buy coins online

Zoins

I'm guessing:

1. Overall participation will decrease as people return to funding and spending their time on non-shelter-in-place activities
2. Inventories and available pieces will free up as there is smaller demand
3. Prices for low to mid-level items will decrease as there is smaller demand from people shifting to other activities
4. Prices for high-level items may increase as business resume and more funds are available to business owners

Onastone

Trick question. Numismatics will maintain it's course whether or not there is a rampant virus. The mints will continue to use it's bag of tricks with different finishes and mint marks and design series and mintage releases to raise interest.

OliverDePlaise

It's gonna take us a year and a half just to catch up on going to the movies and eating at restaurants.

rec78

Good question. I think that collecting will slow down, as people want to do more outdoor stuff and spend money and time on vacations and other outdoor hobbies, instead of coins. I do think though that coin collecting may have picked up more collectors because of the lockdown. If enough new coin collectors stay interested, the slowdown won't be as bad as can be expected. But the upturn is over, spring is here and coins can wait, at least for a while.

Fishpro

Time will tell. I going to my first show in over a year, Las Vegas in April.

Tom147

IMO Both. Negative, I agree with the financial situation that others have posted. Stimulus checks will stop, foreclosures, jobs being lost, more time away from the coin world. Positive, returning to work, shows starting back up, in some cases more inventory available. I believe some dealers choose to not do business online. Others may not be capable. ( yea, I know....dinosaurs )
I don't believe we will ever return to the old normal. I think the buying and selling of coins has changed forever. Yes the " old way " will return to some extent. But a lot more business will be conducted on line than pre covid.

thefinn

YES

chesterb

What end? The virus is and will continue to mutate. Maybe we'll need annual booster shots like the flu. I don't know but as @jmlanzaf stated above "of all COVID related things, this is the least important to me."

RYK

Certainly mixed with various cross currents.

Some people will have more disposable income. Positive.

Some people were waiting for coin shows and in-person auctions to buy and sell coins. Positive.

There will be a lot more competition for your discretionary dollar. Negative.

Pent up demand for travel, sporting events, cultural events, dining out, doing activities with other people, etc. Negative.

TurtleCat

Some segments will be a definite positive with more coin shows and auctions and new venues that people have discovered or started to use more often.

Some segments will probably be in decline as the economic situation for some will remain challenging or worse. Roll hunting time for some will probably go away. Parking lot errors will also see a minor decline I hope.

yspsales

Thankfully surviving financially and healthy, with a light at end of tunnel.

Been using the downtime buying and learning copper.

Reading everything from Bowers to Agatha Christie for mental stability.

Make good use of the time.

Baley

I predict a decrease in the overuse of the cliche term "parking lot finds" and an increase in overuse of the cliche term "mustard stains"

jmlanzaf

@chesterb said:
What end? The virus is and will continue to mutate. Maybe we'll need annual booster shots like the flu. I don't know but as @jmlanzaf stated above "of all COVID related things, this is the least important to me."

We'll quite likely need annual (biennial?) booster shots. Coronavirus immunity tends to be short-lived for other coronaviruses that we have experience with such as the common cold. And while most mutations are likely to make it less virulent, viruses do mutate.

And I don't think one can assume things go back to "normal". I'm on a committee at my college that is planning for post-Covid. One of the first things that came up was that staff now want to continue to work remotely, where possible. The second thing that came up was that faculty want the default for all meetings to be remote. I wouldn't be so sure that the default for all coin shows doesn't become virtual.

Cougar1978

Negative unless lost jobs during covid come back, more workers unionize to get decent pay / working conditions, increase in minimum wage to $15.

Coins are a retail hobby like model trains. Not something the wealthy or big money CEO’s worth billions interested in investing in. For them a yacht, mansion on the beach or trophy SB is chump change.

Coins reached their peak decades ago - 1989. I am not saying there isn’t undervalued stuff out there, pickoffs, or one can’t make money buy low / sell high, upward swings in bullion.

Low pop graded world coins and currency the new frontier IMO. There, now your talking.

Many like victims of the 2015 oil price crash will never recover what they had financially prior to covid (unfavorable external event).

Covid nowhere near done yet let alone off the field. Like hiv it mutates. Will it kill more Americans than the 700 k killed by hiv?

bidask

for those who dealers who have no website I am thinking it will alot better

jmlanzaf

@Cougar1978 said:
Negative unless lost jobs during covid come back, more workers unionize to get decent pay / working conditions, increase in minimum wage to $15.

Coins are a retail hobby like model trains. Not something the wealthy or big money CEO’s worth billions interested in investing in. For them a yacht, mansion on the beach or trophy SB is chump change.

Coins reached their peak decades ago - 1989. I am not saying there isn’t undervalued stuff out there or one can’t make money buy low / sell high.

Low pop graded world coins and currency the new frontier IMO. There, now your talking.

Many like victims of the 2015 oil price crash will never recover what they had financially prior to covid (unfavorable external event).

So, you're saying we should increase the minimum wage because those workers lack resources to buy coins???

3stars

None. Those are going to collect will collect regardless and in any environment.

amwldcoin

Here is my take on what Covid has done to my coin market and my experience. I made more money last year than I have in the last 5. My sales are up and my expenses are way down due to not doing shows. I might have to have a fire sale to raise the money to pay my unexpected taxes. That led me to the decision to whack my yearly show totals from 40+/- to 3! Hell, 95% of the people going to shows these days are just looking for stuff they think they can make a buck on on ebay. I am just not seeing that many serious collectors at regional and smaller shows.

I was already getting ready to slow down...and Covid forced that on me. Covid has been a major positive for me on the business side of things...but that doesn't outweigh all the negatives.

PerryHall

Massive deficit spending with no end in sight will eventually result in inflation. I'm guessing gold, silver, rare coins, and other tangible assets will do quite well. Or, will it be different this time?

Crypto

The end of the epidemic? You mean when it transitions to endemic and pops back up regularly when a community’s immunity saturation levels drop below a certain TBD level for any number of reasons. In the coming years as it continues to circulate out of control in various countries who aren’t prepared to roll out vaccines as quickly as it mutates, if it can circle the globe in short order from nothing, reintroduction from a global hotspot is almost assured.

I have no doubt people will start to live life again regardless of COVID’s status but don’t trick yourself into thinking you will see a post COVID world anytime soon.

2ndCharter

I see one possible Big Negative for the major shows and that's the amount of money they receive for auction rights. I'm sure Heritage, StacksBowers, etc. are looking at the auction results for the past year and they are thinking, "Hey, we can get just as good results holding the auctions right here in our offices. Why pay rights fees and all the other expenses of holding the auctions at the shows?" I'd love to listen in on the negotiation sessions with the ANA, Central States organization, Long Beach Expo, FUN, etc. going forward as things open back up.

csdot

Cons: With the world opening back up, the fear trade in Gold and Silver could drop back to their 2014-2019 levels ($1,250 and $20). Since interest in coin collecting seems to be correlated with interests in PMs, and since people lose interest in PMs when they go down in price (odd how people chase higher prices, not lower), could be a negative for the hobby.

Pros: (A) People are VERY ready to get out again. Clubs will get active again, and the local, state level, and the big National Coin shows will start up again, which could spur interest. (B) With another $1.9T being pumped into the economy, surely some of this will go into people's hobbies.

Justacommeman

I'm not that anxious to return to coin shows at all. We did go to an outdoor swap meet today and bought a neat piece of art. Fun day

Just got my first shot. CVS. Easy breezy

m

WCC

@PerryHall said:
Massive deficit spending with no end in sight will eventually result in inflation. I'm guessing gold, silver, rare coins, and other tangible assets will do quite well. Or, will it be different this time?

Depends when "eventually" occurs and what anyone thinks it will look like.

My view?

When the current financial mania ends, most people's living standards are in for a noticeable decline or crash landing, especially in the US where this fake economy is based upon cheap borrowing costs and the lowest aggregate credit standards ever.

"Rare" coins are not cheap by any means and still very overpriced versus bullion. So I doubt there will be equivalent "investing" to the 1970's either.
Today isn't like the early 1970's when coins were a lot more affordable and wages more or less kept up with living expenses.

Coins with any noticeable numismatic premium aren't an inflation hedge either. It's a luxury discretionary item. If the US has 1990's Brazil inflation of 40%+ per month, most will "appreciate" but with a (much) poorer middle class will almost certainly lose value adjusted for price changes.

Shorter term, I agree with many of the sentiments in the above posts here.

ricko

Most predictions are made from individual perspectives - be it personal, business or general philosophy. Some things will regain pre-covid normalcy, some will not. PM's will rise and fall with economic situations. Reality will take hold in many sectors and people will realize that, while this virus is/was unique and impactive, so too is flu, heart disease, TB, and many other issues. We live in a world filled with dangers - most of which, are ignored unless an individual is directly impacted. This pandemic was filled with personal tragedy, political impact, financial losses and gains. The future will bring more of the same. Cheers, RickO

Hydrant

I think so. I'd like to go to a show and buy some stuff. I'm sure I'm not alone.

RYK

I wonder what percentage of coin transactions are in person these days (c.2019)?

Crypto

@RYK said:
I wonder what percentage of coin transactions are in person these days (c.2019)?

To the collector edge or dealer edge. I would guess to collectors is less than 1/3 are done face to face and dealers would be less than 1/2. Auctions and online are the vast majority.

CommemDude

People are creatures of habit, and things will return to near normal in a year or two.

Some of us older collectors, however much we may love our coin shows, will still be unwilling to risk getting "just" a non-fatal case of covid and suffering cardiomyopathy or lung damage or chronic fatigue as happens in 30% of cases.

MFeld

@CommemDude said:
People are creatures of habit, and things will return to near normal in a year or two.

Some of us older collectors, however much we may love our coin shows, will still be unwilling to risk getting "just" a non-fatal case of covid and suffering cardiomyopathy or lung damage or chronic fatigue as happens in 30% of cases.

While people are creatures of habit, many of those habits have been forced to change during the past year. I expect that a lot of collectors and dealers will stick their current routines, rather than return to their old ones.

yspsales

My financial situation should vastly improve around the end of this year.

No rush to be around people at shows, but 2022 is still a long way off.

Cash and debt freedom are my priorities.

BryceM

I think it will be the permanent death of at least one major show on the circuit. Some three-per-year shows might drop down to two. I've talked to a few dealers who discovered that they're doing just fine without the huge overhead of travel, lodging, security, and such. If your revenue stays the same but expenses fall by being Internet-only dealers, there's no compelling reason to go back. The big problem they all talk about is access to inventory. We'll see how that shakes out. If 20% of the dealers don't show up at a big show, the ability to secure the venue and associated block of hotel rooms starts to be an issue.

The concept of the end of COVID is a bit nebulous. It will be a very gradual thing, and the virus will probably stay with us at some level for the rest of our lifetimes.

Personally, I'm not all that comfortable buying expensive coins without seeing them in person first or at least having someone I trust look at them. I'll be trying to attend a couple of shows a year, and sooner or later I'll get a chance to attend a Winter FUN.

blitzdude

At least with my mask I won't have to smell all the mustard (and Bengay®).

jmlanzaf

@blitzdude said:
At least with my mask I won't have to smell all the mustard (and Bengay®).

You better wear two...and a shield.

PillarDollarCollector

@Crypto said:
The end of the epidemic? You mean when it transitions to endemic and pops back up regularly when a community’s immunity saturation levels drop below a certain TBD level for any number of reasons. In the coming years as it continues to circulate out of control in various countries who aren’t prepared to roll out vaccines as quickly as it mutates, if it can circle the globe in short order from nothing, reintroduction from a global hotspot is almost assured.

I have no doubt people will start to live life again regardless of COVID’s status but don’t trick yourself into thinking you will see a post COVID world anytime soon.

Agreed could easily be another few more years. And hopefully we block travel to any nation with a new mutation that is worse. I doubt China will be changing their eating habits much either. Things in Canada and places like the USA will be OK soon enough maybe by the end of 2021. I do hope that is the case.

PillarDollarCollector

But I have always seen numismatics as a stable hobby no matter what.

WCC

@MFeld said:

@CommemDude said:
People are creatures of habit, and things will return to near normal in a year or two.

Some of us older collectors, however much we may love our coin shows, will still be unwilling to risk getting "just" a non-fatal case of covid and suffering cardiomyopathy or lung damage or chronic fatigue as happens in 30% of cases.

While people are creatures of habit, many of those habits have been forced to change during the past year. I expect that a lot of collectors and dealers will stick their current routines, rather than return to their old ones.

I suspect dealers would welcome the opportunity to travel less if they can make approximately the same income as they did before last year.

For most collectors, their budget doesn't make it economical to travel for a coin show unless they make a vacation out of it. I wouldn't mind going more often but my coin money is for coins (not traveling) and I have better uses for my vacation.

It would also help if I could find something for my primary series but the overwhelming probability is that I will leave empty handed.