2011 Topps Mike Trout PSA 10 down from $7,000 to $4,500 in two months. What does this tell us ?
Goldenage
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Goldenage
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It tells us that as more people that want one get one, there is less money and competition for that next one.
It also can depend greatly on who sold it, how and what time of day.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
Honestly, I think this is a very similar pattern/trajectory to the vast majority of super star baseball players. He has been at the top of baseball for years, and most people are starting to think that run is going to end in the next couple years. So, people are buying into the next gen superstar baseball players. Give it another 5 years and I will be buying up everything I can of Trout's.
Collecting:
post world war II HOF rookie
76 topps gem mint 10 commons 9 stars
Arenado purple refractors(Rockies) Red (Cardinals)
successful deals with Keevan, Grote15, 1954, mbogoman
Griffey hit his plateau and trending downward a bit as well.
Typical market action
The sweet spot is in vintage
I picked up a bunch of Pujols autographed RCs while he has sucked it up with the Angels. His cards languished while he played poorly yet he is arguably one of the top 10 right hand hitters of all time. The COVID train pushed up values on Pujols, so none of his cards I watch are still undervalued any longer (IMO). If Trout cards have any sort of similar trajectory, I will be an aggressive buyer.
For Trout, I think long term $4500 will be a good price for a PSA 10 but in the short term (next 3-5 years) who knows. His cards could be consolidating for another huge run up or they could sink. Long term, his place in baseball history is pretty set and if he can manage to win a World Series, the sky is the limit. One parallel for me is with Alexander Ovechkin, he was always in the shadow cast by Sidney Crosby until he won a Stanley Cup and his cards have since exploded. While Trout cards are way more expensive and way more popular than Ovechkin cards, the biggest knock on Trout is post season success. If Angels can right the ship and actually be a successful playoff team, Trout's cards will soar.
Robb
Jordan down. Lots of things - not all - have come back 20-30% last 4-6 weeks. As most sort of expected.
Supply and Demand eventually win out.
While not exactly related, I noticed a bunch of prices on non prime cards this past weekend from the "usual selling suspects" were down compared to mid-Feb. Anything that burns too bright in time will dim
Although I did I see a 93 SP PSA9 Jeter, from a small seller, on eBay for $24.1K. As modern era goes that card has legitimately rare cachet above PSA8. My guess is it will maintain the demand and continue trending upwards over the years much like a solid Blue Chip stock. To be clear I feel it's only a Blue Chip like due to scarcity in Mint or above. If not it would be like the 93 Topps in that the vast supply would be a huge concern after the current frenzy recedes.
Regarding Trout 76collector made some excellent points.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
7k was too much. 4.5k is probably too much. Not that tough of a card.
I actually hope it goes down more so I can perhaps afford the Diamond Anniversary again.
That Mike Trout sucks?
D's: 54S,53P,50P,49S,45D+S,44S,43D,41S,40D+S,39D+S,38D+S,37D+S,36S,35D+S,all 16-34's
Q's: 52S,47S,46S,40S,39S,38S,37D+S,36D+S,35D,34D,32D+S
74T: 37,38,47,151,193,241,435,570,610,654,655 97 Finest silver: 115,135,139,145,310
73T:31,55,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,80,152,165,189,213,235,237,257,341,344,377,379,390,422,433,453,480,497,545,554,563,580,606,613,630
95 Ultra GM Sets: Golden Prospects,HR Kings,On-Base Leaders,Power Plus,RBI Kings,Rising Stars
meanwhile his team color matched etopps refractor that is supposedly /999 (who knows how many actually made it out) has steadily made a solid climb and will only continue to do so regardless of what happens w his career.
the card is less susceptible to being trimmed as well.
pretty simple stuff. i know where my moneys laid out in the trout department.
I > @rexvos said:
It baffles me how this card even got up to $7,000 with such a big population. There’s got to be a ton of people holding 10s out there that are going to be looking to sell fast here soon if they think the run’s over...
With modern cards like this of elite superstars like him I am sure that there are more than a few people with a huge stash of these in PSA 10.
"Sell after you're made 3x" is something I hear a lot. Once it crossed 4.5k, there were a lot of previous buyers who met that threshold...and even more at 7k. No surprise that a lot were brought to market.
But it will probably go up again at some point in time. Until all the guys who bought it at 3-4k decide they've made enough and the cycle repeats.
Cards will go up based on his performance. Another MVP or World Series win and the card is $10K.
Brian
I've often wondered about this. I understand the fact that there are a lot less 52 Mantle's than 2011 Trouts.
But for every guy who wants to own 3 Mantle rookies, there is a guy who wants to own 200 Trout rookies.
It's like there's one guy who is happy with 10 shares of Apple, and another guy who needs 1,000 shares.
I wonder if the population report matters, and I don't know that answer.