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Who All Plans on Buying 2021 Type 1 Gold Eagle Proofs Coming Out on March 11?
Dirt94
Posts: 230 ✭✭✭
Just curious to see how many modern gold collectors there are and if this will be a sellout being the last of the old reverse.
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Definitely not picking up any proofs; premiums are too high. I may pick up a bullion 1/10 oz.
Not picking these up. Not worth the hassle or the money.
Looking at the mintages of each of the 4 denominations they will all be the lowest of the series for regular proofs, not including Burnished or last year’s V75.
Gold is at $1,736 and the Mint probably wants $2,300-2,400 range for a proof. Better off saving your money and get the 2021 Peace and Morgan silver dollars that will have actual collector demand.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Yeah, the spot price has made the mint offering unattractive from a cost point of view.
TurtleCat Gold Dollars
I'm in for a 1/10 oz for sure, and may add a 1/2 oz too --- that is, if the mint will allow me the pleasure of ordering them 😒
when you look at mintages, don't forget to add in the mintage for the 4 coin proof set...
I did. Even adding the 8200 4 coin sets they are the lowest minted year.
Where are you finding mintage figures?
Here are the mintages of the Type 1 Gold Eagles:
➤ Single 1-ounce gold Proof coin: mintage limit 12,700; product limit 4,500; household order limit, one.
➤ Single half-ounce gold Proof coin: mintage limit 9,800, product limit 1,600, household order limit, one.
➤ Single quarter-ounce gold Proof coin: mintage limit, 10,900; product limit, 2,700; household order limit, one.
➤ Single tenth-ounce gold Proof coin: mintage limit, 16,200; product limit; 8,000; household order limit, one.
➤ Four-coin gold Proof set: 8,200 product limit, household order limit, one.
https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/march-11-date-for-proof-american-eagle-gold-launch
Looks like the previous lows were:
1/10 oz: 18,849 for the 2019 Proof
1/4 oz: 11,098 for the 2019 Proof
1/2 oz: 9,941 for the 2019 Proof
1 oz: 13,932 for the 2019 Proof
https://www.usacoinbook.com/coins/bullion-coins/american-gold-eagle/
Everything is too expensive lately. Anybody in for the annual Palladium? How about the bi-yearly gold Liberty? These will set you back about six thousand bucks.
I always pick up the silver liberties, prob won't go for the gold liberty
and the palladium really comes down to mintage - if the do 10k-15k, probably not, but I'd almost surely try to snag one if they do 5k --- they still haven't sold last year's w mintage of 10k
Thx! Looking at recent sales, it doesn’t seem like the 2019 commanded a real premium. Here’s a 2019 1/4 oz 70dcam which sold for $550 a week ago.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/2019-W-10-1-4-oz-Gold-American-Eagle-Proof-PCGS-PF70-DCAM-Super-Coin/203287393979?hash=item2f54df76bb:g:K2MAAOSw7AZgM-nf#vi__app-cvip-panel
That's the thing. Who cares if its the lowest mintage if there is no premium to justify the giant premium you have to pay the mint to obtain it.
I wasn't planning to buy
If I considered it, I would also consider the product limits. I think the limits are high.
I do think that these will sell out like the ASE just did, but I'd rather buy a 19 than a 21.
Too much over bullion, I'll pass.
Nope.
I still infer most buyers are primarily financially motivated, not collectors buying it as a collectible. Buying to profit on both an increase in spot and hoping for an increased "collectible" premium.
As a collectible at this price point and with the number of likely collectors, the supply isn't that low and it's a lot more common than all but the most common pre-1933 classic gold.
Makes sense to me, WCC. Despite the slim opportunity for profit, I think these will sell out quickly. Given the hot gold market and quick mint sellouts, it seems that all reason is cast aside, and people will snap these up. Time will tell, but I won’t be buying.
The proofs aren't really that common relative to pre-1933 gold. In fact, most of the proofs are scarcer than the more common dates. Although I agree with your main point.
They'll probably sell out. Especially the fractionals. They almost always sell out. There are a few collectors of these and the mintages are not that high.
It's not an exact comparison since few or no US classic gold exist in the equivalent TPG quality. But from the standpoint of "high quality" survivors, the AGE mintages are not even close to being low. I don't see anyone buying "lower quality" classic gold as an alternative.
With the current (temporary) shortage of physical gold, I agree it will likely sell out.
can't compare classic MS mintages to current proof mintages.
I was talking total mintage not proof 69 or proof 70. Obviously there aren't any pre-1933 proof 70s.
Yes, I understood this from your post.
The reason I wrote these comments is that there are (potential) buyers who have the mistaken impression that these mintages are low because they don't distinguish between financial buyers and collectors and don't consider that comparing it to mintages of circulating coins isn't relevant. I know you do not believe this but I have definitely read this inference here before.
I doubt it.
There’s not that many instances where I’d buy modern gold for more than a small premium over spot.
BHNC #248 … 108 and counting.
Gotcha. I think we're in agreement.
And if one buys type 1 does that mean they'll buy type 2 as well? Eagles are double this year...all heading for a sellout more than likely.
I agree with @Goldminers.... I will stick with the ASE issues.... I do not sell, so just want them from a collector perspective. Cheers, RickO
With these mintages, a flipping delight.
With those premiums, a flipping nightmare.
Those mintages are pretty normal for the series.
Saw these are coming out this week. Debating if I want to pick up 1 of each reverse this year. (Maybe just 1oz). First year/last year makes for an interesting set. I am not normally a gold eagle collector. Recent drop in spot helps a bit but premiums still too high.
My Gold Type Set
same - normally not an AGE collector, but a type I/II mini-set'll be cool to have - just going for the 1/10 oz AGE on release day - want to hedge ahead of the 2-coin AGE 1/10 oz set coming out later; in case I get shut out of that one, which ... will probably happen 😅
I am all about the Type 2, 3, 4, etc..
At these prices? I think not.
I'll wait for 1500 gold and then buy with a 70 label off of ebay.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
The 2021 W unc. will be the prize.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Well, folks, it pays to do your homework. This am I read an oped in Coin World arguing that there will be huge demand for these coins on 3/11 and that the 3 fractionals will set new mintage lows and the 1 oz will be lowest after the V75 and 2006W RP. So I checked, and his numbers are not correct. The lowest 1 oz PF after the 2020W V75 is the 2017; the lowest 1/2 oz is 2018; the lowest 1/4 is 2019; and the lowest 1/10th is the 2019. These are US Mint numbers, not the BS you find in some places.
None of those coins carries much premium apart from PF70s. And people care about the first coins of a type much more than the last ones. And others have noted, these coins carry crazy premiums. As I tell friends, buying these coins is like driving a high-end car out of the showroom and watching its value decline immediately. Only those who bough earlier issues when spot was lower or got 70s and sold them at the right time have done well. I will wait for the 2-coin 1/10th set.
Curious where you found these numbers? Or are you including the burnished versions? The numbers I posted were for proofs only.
respect everyone bringing up very reasoned and logical points on why these shouldn't be in such high demand and not command high secondary market premiums, but you neglect to factor in that humans are often not reasoned and logical - the secondary market price isn't driven by what it reasonably should be, it's driven by demand, and there are far more people out there willing to pay high secondary market premiums because they're operating off a dream rather than reason and logic - I would think collectors would be best suited to realize this
so while it's easy to agree to the facts that these are not the lowest mintages ever, gold price is still p high and the mint premiums are also high, tons of people won't even care about that and operate off the very basic human instinct of: I want it.
What you are describing is more descriptive of temporary speculation. The actual collector base for any of these "coins" is almost certainly a lot lower than the mintages. None of these coins are even close to being scarce, can be bought at any time, and aren't that interesting as a collectible at or near this price point. The ASE (at much lower premiums) is different because it is so much cheaper.
Mintages are from USM sales reports and are those in the 2021 Red Book for 2017 and 2018. They have not yet updated the more recent issues (in those cases it is from USM sales reports).
I certainly agree people are irrational and the 2021 coins could briefly have flip potential for those with the resources to risk it.
It should also be noted the price of gold at the time. With the higher gold price right now, there will be less demand plus the increase in premiums from the mint will steer people away from it.
Young Numismatist/collector
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Correction: My mintage figures were compiled several months ago, and the data has changed for several coins like the 2019 1/4 oz because they are still selling the 4-coin set. It does appear that each 2021-W will set a new low, but for the 1/10th oz coin, we need to see how many 2-coin sets they issue to know for sure.
Not me.
You were wrong with the mintages and I'm afraid you are wrong again with the 1/10 AGE. The 1/10 2-coin set might have other finishes and different to the normal proof issue. Total mintage for 1/10 proof would be exhausted with the single (8000) and set (8200) releases. Therefore the 1/10 set must have another new quota.