Data Driven Price Changes in the PCGS Price Guide

winesteven

I read that Mark Ferguson, probably our hobby’s top expert on coin pricing data, was recently hired by PCGS to be in charge of the PCGS Price Guide. I just noticed this morning that in a couple of series of interest to me (Two Cents, SLQ’s, and especially Classic Silver Commemoratives) there have been pricing adjustments to the guide. What’s good is that these are not just simple “across the board” increases or decreases, but appear to be specific changes that are data driven, as there are both ups and downs in certain dates and certain grades.

My sense is not all series have yet had the time to have had their prices analyzed in this detailed manner, as I’m sure this is an ongoing, never ending process, but I like it!

Guides are only guides, and every one has its limitations. But it’s healthy if attempts are made to tie the prices in a guide to real life auction data!

Steve

TurtleCat

Whether accurate or not, many people use the price guide as the starting price for coins whether raw or slabbed. So having the guide be more realistic to recent auctions and trends will help everyone.

ricko

The more accepted accuracy in a price 'guide', the more it will be referenced and used. Good news for the hobby. Cheers, RickO

stockdude_

i use the Price guide to ballpark values so i know if its worthwhile to bid on them. Very good resource

Crypto

Price guides sort of track auction trends but dealers are more vested in price guides than buyers and it isn’t because they need the data. If I had a nickel for every time a dealer tired to use the price “guide” to convince me how lucky I was to be at that spot at that time, I could buy all the coins on the floor

P0CKETCHANGE

This is just a single example that I pulled from the Silver Commemoratives category. What would drive this up to $200 given the recent auction results?

winesteven

@PocketChange - While only Mark Fergusen or his staff can answer for sure as to their rationale, here's my speculation on a factor related to your data shown: none of those ten sales shown were coins with a CAC sticker. Since CAC sales have been growing, and coins with CAC's tend to sell at higher prices, MAYBE that played a partial role in their adjustment? Who knows! PCGS pricing is not automatically only for coins without CAC's, and vice versa. My guess is it's a "blend" of some sort.

TomB

What commem is the data pulled from? I appear to have missed the reference.

ironmanl63

@P0CKETCHANGE said:
This is just a single example that I pulled from the Silver Commemoratives category. What would drive this up to $200 given the recent auction results?

The old price might have been 195. The green up arrow only means that the price is rising. Not that it went up 200.

Edited to add I missed end of your post.

winesteven

@TomB said:
What commem is the data pulled from? I appear to have missed the reference.

He did not indicate, BUT, using my keen detective skills, I figured out that @PocketChange was using the 1935 Boone (MS65).

ironmanl63

The lower priced auctions might have been dogs. If you are only looking at numbers and not the coins you will have no clue. I laugh when people tell me that the price should be this because the last 5 sold for this. I tell them to buy one of those.

winesteven

@ironmanl63 said:
The old price might have been 195. The green up arrow only means that the price is rising. Not that it went up 200.

True in general, but the good news is that if one hovers their mouse over the "new" price, it will show you the old price. in this specific case, it went from $185 to a new price of $200 (more detective skills, lol).