Is the Hobby too Easy to Manipulate?
SmithAuctionCo
Posts: 170 ✭✭✭
Is it too easy for anyone to manipulate the value a certain player's cards / an individual card right now?
Either by cornering the market in certain areas and driving up realized prices, or by "hyping up" a certain player or card to a large following on social media?
There have to be investment groups looking into how to control the card market. It just seems way too easy with all the pricing tools / graphs / and ways to promote the hype. And in theory, it can be cycled over and over again (buy in the dip, build up the hype / prices, sell off, then repeat once prices settle back down), generating a pretty fair profit each time. The risk is minimal to none - especially with retired / established players.
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Cant say all cards are being manipulated, but it is fairly obvious looking at some, like Pokemon, that the prices are being fabricated. So many of the Pokemon auctions have 50 bids, all by low feedback (single digits or less), sold by a low feedback seller. Have seen it happen with some late 90's inserts as well.
In the end, no. In the middle, sometimes.
Just look at the PSA 8 Wagner or PSA 10 Clemente rookie.
Price manipulation ?
There is some price manipulation just like there is some card doctors, but in the end, most of these cards are finding their way to collectors who pay above what everyone else is willing to.
There will be a downfall at some point for many cards not all but many.
People are only manipulated if they allow it.
There are no cards out there that I_ must _have. If I don't agree with the price, no one is forcing me to buy.
Yes. Easy to do if you have money or a small group of collectors or people in on it.
Sports cards (all cards like Pokemon) seem the easiest based on their track record.
Unregulated and sales in the millions makes it ripe for fraud and manipulation. Look at all of the trimmed high end cards, shill bidding, resealed wax... No wonder grading companies and BBCE get paid good money for their services.
Absolutely in the short term. A sold item in ebay (or any platform) does not necessary mean a payment was made. For low POP RCs, you can manipulate the market, but not for the long haul.
I'm just waiting for the day that someone finds a way to "short" the card industry.
We had a member who I really liked; it would be Pandrews who would find a way to put on the "squeeze."
They found a way to short the housing market!
I'm pretty sure crisser started his short position on MJ at $100k lol
The price jumps over just the last 9 days on players like Vince Carter and Randy Moss are amazing.
Is the unopened market being manipulated?
The last week has been insane.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
As a vintage collector, I’ve seen prices of Willie Mays cards really climb the few weeks. I think with Hank Aaron’s passing, folks may be trying to gobble up Mays’ cards before the inevitable surge.
I believe that may be the case with some formerly "junk" Fleer basketball boxes that have gone from $10 to $300 seemingly overnight.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
it can be, sure. but a lot of what you guys are claiming is manipulation above, is actually legit. you don't think these high prices for pokemon aren't legit? jump on ig and look at the accounts of logan paul, steve aoki and jeremy padawer just to name a few. maybe put pen to paper on the junk fleer basketball knowing you can pull 4-5 jordan base plus stickers plus pack showing jordans. easily and that's just jordan's. look at what some of the 90 sub tier guys are going for. i was gonna put a few of my beat up, non wrapped boxes for sell. then realized i didn't want to deal w the possible headaches. ripped them and so glad i did. legit 90 fleer bball even at $500/box is still undervalued. it's crazy to say, but it is. even if you don't get a jordan 10.
it is impossible to manipulate the amount of everything that is going on. it's every sport and non-sport possible. it's modern, vintage, prewar, you name it. it would literally take billions of dollars and millions of people to pull it off. and if it takes that, then it isn't manipulation. it's the new norm.
is there manipulation going on in the hobby? of course. always has. always will. but the fact that so many of you are on a archaic message board afraid to peak around the corner and refusing to realize the game has drastically changed is laughable. you wanna give crisser crap for being dead wrong, but then claim the exact same thing basically in that what's transpiring is manipulation. hell, just look at the amount of subs and the amount of time it takes to get them back these days. and they've being adding personnel, facilities and technology and still falling behind. is psa manipulating the market too? look at all these new grading companies attempting to pop up and grab their piece of the action. look at all the retail shelves at every store store across the country. you got people camping out for basically anything the excel reps stock.
fyi: i put one open case of 89 fleer basketball on ebay w/ decent info about how to contact me. i have since sold 4 sealed cases via ig contacts that found me thru ebay for just shy of what the probstein one is at. to 4 different people on 2 different continents. is it absurd? yes. are these 4 people manipulating the market and decided to waste $100k to me? i could care less. heck, the only reason i haven't offered the other 6 out is i don't wanna shoot myself in the foot in a month, a year. it's a great problem to have.
but if you haven't realized it yet and it needs to smack you in the face for the revelation, collecting cards is the it thing now. just look at all the newbs popping in here lately. celebrities, musicians, athletes, wall street, sneakerbois, you name it. they're in the game. and they're coming in hard and they're coming in fast.
remember 3 years ago when we, myself included, were laughing at the "obvious manipulation" of the '89 fleer jordan 10? we, you included, were dead wrong then. they are laughing now.
again the sheer volume of what's happening speaks volumes. wise up and wake up, gents. maybe the only thing being manipulated is you, by you. keep in mind, the possibility of all this being a bubble is completely different in is this all manipulation.
@PNWcollector
As a vintage collector, I’ve seen prices of Willie Mays cards really climb the few weeks. I think with Hank Aaron’s passing, folks may be trying to gobble up Mays’ cards before the inevitable surge.
Agreed. Mays is the oldest living HOF baseball player now. Think I just saw a '51 PSA 3 go for over 9K.
It can be manipulated, but there's a legit reason for some of the surges we've seen over the past decade plus. I'm primarily an unopened and set collector, so my views might be limited in that scope. I started dabbling again around 2007, was full into it by 2010. I first noticed a lot of card/player/team collectors started to respect unopened, and prices rose. A few years later, seemed like an influx of junk era collectors came back to the hobby... and prices rose. A couple years later and online rippers became the fad, and unopened prices exploded. Now, just a couple years later here we are and we've got two factors at play... the globalization of sports cards (hence basketball explosion) and the rise of trading cards as an investment vehicle (I've sold several items to a couple different investment groups recently). While there are some snakes that will take advantage of these opportunities to manipulate the price of what they have, there is sound reasoning behind a lot of the rise. The question is, will there be a time that there are way more sellers than buyers?
This market is less about manipulation and all about speculation.
Cards have become cool.
When Aaron died I thought I should probably get an iconic Mays. I was too late. That being said, I did pick up a nice Koufax rookie a couple weeks ago. He might not have the star power of Mays, but he's one of the few living legends from 50s.
I’ve been looking for a nice mid grade 55T for a while now but it seems like I’m priced out of that now.
I agree it is both legit market forces and manipulation. Too late to get into it now, but there are several key folks who are collectors who are on social media discussing how they are doing it. They move from group to group - first it was Luka and Zion and Trey Young cards and now Kobe, Lebron, and Jordan cards. Kobe autos, Lebron Topps chrome, and Jordan rookies.
They said they were surprised that Jordan went up as fast as it did because some multimillionaires were buying the 10’s from Goldin and they have worked with dealers and certain AH’s to help move the market, but the 9’s and 8’s were rising with them but not at the same rate - looking at March auction and shows to see how prices move and if they rise or stabilize/drop. They basically find the wave, get out in front of it, and jump out to a new thing to put their money in while others jump and get out before it drops off.
The unfortunate part of this is you have to really be in front of it, because if you wanted to jump into early 90's basketball now and get your raw graded, you have to wait 9 months before you'll get them back. Now, Jordan will still be hot, but cards like 1990 FLeer Magic Johnson going for $150, Gary Payton $500 - are those going to last? Still worth getting graded if you are confident of 10s, but you just wish you could have them back in 1 month instead of 9 months. Also, early 90s hockey is going nuts as well. I always thought some of these were undervalued, but not this much.
magic johnson and payton, yes.
all things magic & bird cards are in the midst of a major boom that shoulda happened years ago.
Pre-2016, before the buying group boom, even non-collectors were surprised when I told them how much a 1980/81 Bird/Magic RC sold for, at the time PSA 8's were going for $400 or so. They thought it would be higher since it had Bird/Magic. I think I tried to sound intellectual and say "the card design aesthetic is not pleasant to the modern collector, therefore keeping the value lower than expected." Instead the answer was because we were too blind to see the obvious undervalued card sitting there for all to take.
yep. and very rarely do previous sales sting. but i had about 5 1981 bird 10s a few years back. bought them all at $200. sold them at $1000. jaw dropped when i stumbled on what they are going for now. still thrilled w my initial sales but dayum.
I follow the guys you are talking about, and the instant effect they have on the market is pretty incredible. They do make huge waves in the market. Of course they are ahead of the wave because they will be the ones to make it or at least give it a huge push.
What many fail to see is that most of them become day-traders once the wave starts because they know that it will crash at some point. If they truly believed that what they were promoting would stay rising, then why are they flipping so quickly?
It will be interesting to see the results of the next batch of big cards that come to auction. And also interesting to see how many multiples of "bigger" cards are offered at the same time over the next few months. People have to be lining up consigning the same cards to the auction houses.
Agree SmithAuction. I think a few of them like Sasha do a good job - they do their homework, they are smart, they have vlogs and followers, he is polite which means he does not offend many in a hobby that is known to have a couples of d-bags so he gets deals, he has cash so people sell to him, and he does a good job of promoting himself. Guy is sharp and doing well.
One thing people are not realizing is the backlog of cards at PSA which means more cards, more sales, lower prices when inventories really rise. Most young guys are doing hoops and all in on Lebron, Kobe, now Jordan plus a little Luka/Trae/Zion.... Be interesting to see how the lack of interest in the NBA regarding TV ratings impacts card prices. Now that the NFL is over and baseball has not started we will see a 2 month window with the AS game coming up and how hot or not the NBA will be. I have my money a few will do well but will drop off some and baseball has a few sleepers that are about to blow up for a few reasons and people are missing it 🤔
Another card in the midst of a crazy leap in value is Shaq’s 1992 Topps Gold PSA 10 rookie. In the past month it’s gone from 2K to 12K-ish.
https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_odkw=Shaquille+o’neal+1992+Topps+gold+Psa&_sop=12&_sadis=15&_dmd=1&LH_Complete=1&LH_Sold=1&_osacat=0&_ipg=50&_stpos=01844&_from=R40&_trksid=p2045573.m570.l1313&_nkw=Shaquille+o’neal+1992+Topps+gold+Psa+10&_sacat=0
Eric
Erikthredd’s MJ Collection: https://www.psacard.com/psasetregistry/publishedset/395035
Erikthredd’s Nike Air Jordan Collection: https://www.psacard.com/psasetregistry/basketball/key-card-sets/nike-poster-cards-michael-jordan-1985-1992/alltimeset/408486
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when your current fav gets in on cards and then pulls one of your childhood fav's rookie...
Cards are cool, I don't care who you are. When you're hooked, you're hooked for nearly a lifetime
I was watching NBA TV the other day and I see they are doing card breaks during NBA games now. Grant Hill bustin packs! Good to have more exposure like this!
https://clutchpoints.com/grant-hill-pulls-zion-williamson-rookie-card-from-nba-hoops-pack-during-suns-vs-mavs/
Nic
Guides Authored - Graded Card Scanning Guide PDF | History of the PSA Label PDF
Sasha is great. I highly recommend his YouTube channel and especially his "Sports Card Talk" videos. You can get some key insight on current trends in the hobby and also insight on how dealers like Ryan from Burbank Cards are navigating the "big swings" in the market. At least with "Sports Card Talk" you get multiple people's perspectives - not just one guy's - like Sports Investor.
The 4-Million card backlog at PSA is insane and growing day-by-day. No telling how many card's POP numbers are going to multiply over the next year. And it won't just be the ultra-modern cards - there are tons of 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s cards in that pile. The "Smart" money is making their profits on that stuff now and continuing to do their quick flips while they can.
The answer to the original question is, quite simply, no.
People can be pretty easily manipulated, though, so educate yourself and you will not be one of them.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
There are many things to gamble on in life. Rest assured, there always will be. Stocks, bonds, real estate, Pork bellies, orange grove futures, the futures of characters played by Dan Aykroid and Eddie Murphy...
...humor aside, every one of these markets have seen turbulent times: times of irrational exuberance and times where a buyer can narry be found anywhere. My lifetime has two stock market crashes, a junk bond scandal, I’ve seen a savings and loan scandal and a housing market collapse, a global financial markets collapse and that’s the tip of the iceberg...
...markets rise, markets fall. As do empires.
I love baseball cards but for me they aren’t an investment tool or part of a larger strategy; they’re a hobby. I collect things I like. I’ve been incredibly fortunate in that some of these items have seen dramatic increases in their perceived value but since I haven’t sold them, the reality is their value is zero until I sell them. I am not Robert Edwards, Love of the Game or Sterling Auctions and I am not going to command those prices as I am not a top flight auction house like those three most certainly are.
However, one of the great American virtues, historically speaking, is frugality. You can be a cheapskate, you can hunt for values and bargains and you can use coupons proudly. Do that? You can keep playing. Buying at market tops in the hopes of higher prices can be done but it’s a fairly dangerous game to play. And no one sums it up better than that oracle of wisdom, Andre 3000:
Funny how (stuff) come together sometimes ya dig
One moment you frequent the booty clubs and the next four years
You and somebody's daughter raising y'all own young'n
Now that's a beautiful thang, that's if you're on top of your game
And man enough to handle real life situations that is
Can't gamble feeding baby on that dope money
Might not always be sufficient, but the united parcel service
And the people at the post office, didn't call you back because you got
Cloudy (urine), so now you back in the trap just that, trapped
Go and marinate on that for a minute
-SpottieOttieDopaliscious
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
you were already on that next level w me '51, but to see you in here bangin out some d@mn outkast just started my morning off w a smile. i know big boi well, we bowl together every christmas back in savannah during the annual family and friends get together. very fun times. thank the lord they've gotten tamer as we've gotten older.
oh yea, forgot to add. he collects. he's a diehard falcons fan. into cards a tad, but has one hellavu a game used collection. most actually given to him though. loves him some dan reeves! huge wrestling and ric flair fan too
😂
Thanks!
PS - I know the album well enough to sing it all by heart. So, no. It’s service. 😉
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
i was still in shock as it's both. which you had!
btw: love the pronunciation on the real word that you (replaced). gets me every time.
Probably their most underrated jam; the music and lyrics blend together so well...
...let the liquor tell it. 🥰
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
dayum, dayum, dayum, dayyyyyum!
-b.o.b.
...ain't called ya back! 😉