What is going on with 1990 Fleer basketball boxes?
billwaltonsbeard
Posts: 3,748 ✭✭✭✭
billwaltonsbeard
Posts: 3,748 ✭✭✭✭
Comments
More like what's going on with everything right now. Everyone is treating cards like individual stocks is what's going on. Card folks have become stock day traders. Collectors are becoming a thing of the past.
There is a never ending amount of posts like this on every card forum these days. It’s bigger then cards a every collectable has gone crazy. Equities - look at what has the past few weeks with BB, GME - guys on Reddit have made millions in weeks. Collectable whiskey, look out. My home appreciated by 300k during a pandemic where showing were difficult.
We are in the wildest asset bubble we may ever see. Fundamentals do not apply. And like all bubbles, it will end the same way it ever does, whenever that may be. The correction is going to be as spectacular as the run up. But until then play it smart, keep some portion of cash on hand, and enjoy the action
Collectors proceed with caution. Look for under the radar stuff. It's still out there
While I agree, I also disagree.
I’ve watched for years how every single card of Mickey Mantle in psa 9 has done nothing but go up and up and up.
In the past forty years we have seen the greatest hockey (Gretzky/Lemieux) player, greatest basketball player (Jordan), and greatest football QB, (Brady) all emerge.
My feeling is these three will never see a decrease in card prices.
hard to shock me these days, but just did a search since i have a few of these cases. purchased them back when $2500 - $4k was outrageous. now single fasc boxes are $1500+?
might be time to hedge a case and pay for the rest of them?
This cannot be understated.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
I mean who knows, but some of the cards you describe did go flat, regress a bit in periods of economic uncertainty. The Jordan has absolutely gone up an down, from 50K to 27K to 200k. Long term you are probably ok at 200K but it wouldn't surprise me for it to go to 140K or 120K before it gets to 400K.
And with respect, the attitude that "these things" - whatever they may be, houses, cards, stocks - go up for ever is a good sign we are in a crazy asset bubble. Most people have forgotten that the RE market, the collectables market, the stock market, have all had serious declines after big time run ups. Almost 4MM people lost their homes less then 15 years ago but most folks will tell you RE will run forever.
But I'm not a doomer or down on this market. I think it's spectacular. As others have said, there are buying opportunities and I agree the Best Stuff will be very resilient. But a lot of the stuff going nuts is not the best, or even premium stuff. Base slabbed 10s, that Gem at 85% and have 15K pops are going to get annihilated at some point. The process is always the same - unexpected change in the economy, prices weaken, significant inventory hits the market, FOMO and buyers evaporate, and the bottom falls out. We know how this movie ends, the only uncertainty is how long it runs. This is a great time to be building cash reserves.
Whats amazing to me, and we learned this with the 2016 buyers group, is how a small group can massivley drive up the price of a group of cards, or in the case of GME, stocks.
The thing is, with cards and stocks you have you have to exit at some point to realize gains. At some point there isn’t a greater fool will to be your next mark and the whole thing falls apart.
When these Reddit whales exit GME it is going to be a blood bath. The shorts will eventually win and all the retail small stake investors that think they are aligned with the whales will get wiped out. Glorious to watch.
the problem though, this ISNT a buying group. this is a whole new generation of folks that have created a new stock market out of tpg'd cards. and i hate to say it, but i truly think things are literally just getting started. it all seems crazy and unreal to us simply because we have been in it since the ground floor. of course, i'm sure the secretary's at ibm who were there during the ipo and are now sitting on their own private islands thought it was unreal watching it unfold as well. everything that goes up comes back down, that's a fact too. it's also a fact that it is virtually impossible to time ANY market w a degree of certainty. just strap in.
I believe there are buyers out there, paying $200+ for 1990 Fleer wax boxes, who have no idea that the set, aside from a PSA 10 Jordan, is completely worthless. Am I wrong?
without saying yes, there is a whole host of $50 - $100 psa 10s. barkley, robinson, hardaway, kemp & bird for examples. it really isn't hard to pull $200 worth of cards outta that box, even w/o a jordan 10.
then you have the stickers. can't forget about fleer basketball stickers! collectors love them.
no stickers in 90 fleer. AS cards and Rookie Sensations
well all the years are all star stickers. i'll garauntee you'll see "all star sticker" in 51%+ of any listed.
but since we are gonna get technical then, rookie sensations aren't in wax we are speaking of.
Correct.....Rookie Sensations were only available in jumbo packs........I saw a Box for sale for $1500 this morning.
I’m happy to trade my 89 F FASC BBCE Rack box for a lower grade 54 Aaron!
no kidding.......this is insane. I have a partial box of rack packs buried somewhere. I'm putting them up for sale tonight
Collectibles of all genres have been on fire for months. The same market which created the Mantle selling for $5million is what is happening everywhere.
When 1988 Topps baseball boxes start selling for $100, we'll know this is for real
I like this new way and don't I'm happy for the people who have these cards/wax box that they got way back when they were cheap and people thought they were crazy for keeping some many and now can maybe sell some. I don't like it because there are some people who just love to collect these cards and kept putting it off buying them and now might be priced out of this market.
I know you're being facetious, but it would actually mean the opposite. This tide of money flooding into the hobby, despite the naysaying, is not being spent willy-nilly.
We may not realize it, since most of us have been around for a long time (and makes us feel old in the process) but the 1990 set is THIRTY years old. A lot of this money coming in is from people who never got to see Jordan play.
I'll take this one step further and say that the sole reason some are buying this is only because it is going up, they have no idea about the product at all. They just know that everyone was shocked when it hit $100, so now that it is $200+, they want in.
>
Successful transactions on the BST boards with rtimmer, coincoins, gerard, tincup, tjm965, MMR, mission16, dirtygoldman, AUandAG, deadmunny, thedutymon, leadoff4, Kid4HOF03, BRI2327, colebear, mcholke, rpcolettrane, rockdjrw, publius, quik, kalinefan, Allen, JackWESQ, CON40, Griffeyfan2430, blue227, Tiggs2012, ndleo, CDsNuts, ve3rules, doh, MurphDawg, tennessebanker, and gene1978.
>
$300 for a 90 Fleer wax box is both willy and nilly
You say. Plenty of other people feel exactly the opposite. Simply because people realize 30 year-old product is increasing in popularity doesn't make it any less important.
This is directly attributable to the massive increase to the 86 Jordan, and as the old cliche goes, a rising ride lifts all boats. Basketball cards are insanely hot and with baseball cards of this era being worthless, people are turning to basketball.
You claim they are ignorant, based on what, exactly? Because it's new money coming into the hobby?
maybe they bought 300 boxes 6 months ago and and now pumping the current prices to unload?
They could even be buying boxes from there cousins.
There were theories like that back in '16. Dealers selling back and forth to pump up prices
I still think they where then.
I had to look it up.
Holy short-squeeze!
Reminds me of the Volkswagen squeeze several years ago
There is absolutely buying group mentality at work here. These discord groups are exactly that, same way Reddit and WSB can completely game stocks like BB and GME. The difference between now and 2016 is the size and of the groups. It's one thing to have 6 fanny pack's buying and manipulating prices on relatively scarce cards, much different to have 500 tech forward millennials targeting a group widely available cards. And it is why we see these never ending "have you seen what's happening to x card" posts. These groups pick targets and buy all the inventory up an voila, we have a new normal. A new group gets listed, hits new highs FOMO full speed ahead. All in short periods of time. At some point there isn't a new buyer at a new high and the marker turns the other way. Fear replaces greed, the group mentality says "get out" and down we go.
Maybe I'm wrong and this stuff can go up forever, but the first time that happens will be the first time ever. To continue on the IBM example, that stock was worse less then half in 93 what it was in 83, less in 2011 then 2001, and today trades at 40% discount to 2012 prices. Happy to be wrong, every day I beat the crap out of my CTS-V it goes up in value, my RE goes up by a few Jordan 9's every 6 months, and my cards are worth multiples what they were a year ago.... but I don't think it's different this time.
The comments here suggest that people fundamentally do not understand what's going on. This isn't some secret cabal of redditors or any other group plotting the increase of collectibles to make a profit. Using the 1990 fleer basketball cards as an example, there is simply far too much product out there to "corner the market" and affect prices in any meaningful way.
I'll use the car market as an example. The prices of high end 1960s Porsches have gotten so high that fewer and fewer buyers can afford them, much like high grade 1986 jordans have gained astronomical value. As a result, buyers moved to 1970s and 1980s Porsches to join the club and those prices have been escalating drastically as well, much like non-1986 Jordans have appreciated in value, too.
TL; DR: When the most desirable version of a product (1960s Porsches, 1986 Jordan), buyers inevitably flock to peripheral issues which drive up those costs as well.
not sure if i'm reading this right. i know nothing about these discord groups, please go further...
and maybe it could be that even at $200 box, the avg box yields 3-4 jordan's. it's not an easy gem and centering is still hit or miss, but when a jordan 10 gets ya $800 and there's a good probability of piecing together the rest of the oc jordan's along w several other cards that are $50-$100 that one could come to the realization that there are worse things to roll those $200 dice on. esp w the popularity of basketball cards and jordan world wide.
I assume we are rooting for a market collapse to burn these “profiteers”. When those 90 Fleer boxes are back to 35 each, we can raise our wine glasses!!!
My collecting blog: http://ctcard.wordpress.com
catch22. by the time that happens that bottle of wine will have come to age & will have become worth thousands itself.
I cannot agree more. It is typically not the collector here that would be chasing those hogh pop base update and prizm slabs. I move in and out of them as quickly as possible. There is a large “investor” base out there that tells you they are gold and this is just the beginning. You know the people who have been in the hobby 30 minutes and are experts
devils advocate here, but wasn't the '17 tatum prizm rookie at the top of your "regret selling early" list from the other day? mahomes and watson prizms too?
No one has suggested there is a secret cabal or group of redditors. Reddit in of itself is not secret, the manipulation of GME and others is happening in plain site.
Same for cards. Nothing nefarious but there are influencers, sports card investing groups, pushing the next card up. It explains why this is happening in waves and why we have never ending “ can you believe what this card did this week” posts. It’s inorganic, and it also explains why there is still value to be found in stocks are cards.
And it is all being driven by cheap money. Your Porsche scenario is a good one. I have two vehicles with collector interest that are up substantially this year. It’s not porches, it’s 12v Quad Cabs, CTS-V’s, Bourbons, boats, quads, houses, etf etc. That is the answer to why x card or box is exploding....because everything is.
Well I’m not. Wasn’t interested at 100, not interested at 200, just simply not interested.
It’s possible to root for gains, be happy for people doing well , and believe that this can’t go on forever.
Only because I don’t have them to sell now.
well that was kinda my point. i was trying to be polite as possible after saying that the "investor" group tells you they are gold. they actually seem better than gold.
BUT i agree w your overall strategy. i have a boat ton of prizm about to pop and they will all be going up immediately. jist is that it's impossible to time a market. but by sheer numbers available, i think "safer than sorry" is the smart play for now. and just never look back.
Equating the 2008 RE collapse to today's collectible boom is a false analogy. Without getting into the weeds 2008 bust was due to two reasons: (1) the deregulation of the finance industry which made the market for high-risk derivatives and (2) those derivatives made up of home buyers who had no business buying a home but made "eligible" through ARM loans and shady agents who manipulated data to get these high-risk borrowers into homes.
Neither of those things are the cause for the current market which makes a sudden collapse (like in 2008) far less likely. Possible? Sure. There are no risk-free investments. But the underlying economic factors of the 2008 RE collapse are not in play here.
Brian we don’t seem to be communicating well so this will be my last response.
I wasn’t comparing the RE crash to the current card situation. I was discussing recency bia and the idea that things can only go higher. Things will always go higher until they don’t.
You yourself have drawn a good parallel though - easy to access to cheap money. The details are different but these events are always the same at the core: easy money, FOMO, exuberance, greed. And the overall belief that things can only get better. Until they don’t.
I have never bought a basketball card or box in my life. Ignored all guidance to do so. And now I’m actually considering it.
I would have zero attachment to the purchase so it would be purely for Investment. Which is quite the opposite of my baseball card collection.
John
Can’t wait for 89 Hoops to close the gap with 89 Fleer, which sells for more than 10X Hoops even though it’s not 10X more available and actually has a real rookie card.
Esp BBCE FASC.......since those Hoops packs were searchable as hell
For those of us who have been collecting since the beginning, this amazing rise can be a bit dumbfounding. The things we thought always plentiful and “junk” are now selling for hundreds per box (e.g. 90/91 Fleer basketball). The simple equation is that supply is a fixed variable, and in the case of unopened a declining supply as it is opened. The only variable that has changed is the massive influx of new collectors, thus driving the demand side of the equation. Those of us kids during the 1980s are at our earning peak and coming back to the hobby in droves. Stuck at home, even the 20-30 somethings are getting into the game as IG, FB and other social platforms make collecting cool again. The desire to be “part of something” is basic to human needs.
All this to say we are at the very beginning of this new norm....this market is going nowhere but up for the next decade at least. If there is something you fancy, don’t sit on the sidelines saying “I remember when 90/91 Fleer cost a nickel!” We all know that was the mentality of our own aging grandparents 🤣
Gretzky- Lemieux- Jordan- and all other key rookies from the 80s will be on fire for years to come.
These are the next Mantles.
You can pay now, or pay more later.
The kids who were 10 in 1987 are now 43 and free cash and lots of it will be coming into these cards over the next thirty years.
With 3548 #26 graded PSA 10 and 546 All-Stars graded PSA 10, it seems to me that these probably still have room to run. With the 1986 10's going for six figures and the 9's bringing strong mid 5 figures, these seem to be an economical alternative even if they reach the 4 figure range. I have to believe that there are not nearly enough 10's of these to go around at this point. As stated above, someone that was 10 years old in 1990 and watched Jordan dominate the 90's is now in his peak earning years. MJ was Babe Ruth to this audience, and they did not have to read about it in the papers the next day; they got to see it live.
In our group break in August BBCE sold these for around $400 and we didn't even pick up half the case(I got 2 though). Also picked up a 91 box for $100 the only 1 out of the case going for 3 to 4 hundred now. Kicking my self for not taking the whole case
Afternoon,
So when I got out of the Hobby in 2012, I had 4 each 1990 Fleer Basketball Wax Box's I had picked up somewhere. I found them a year or so later when moving and after trying for a month on E-Bay at $50-$40-$30 a Box, couldn't give them away, so I took them Camping with me and a bunch of us sat around the Campfire Drinking Beer and trolling for Jordans And Robinson's and throwing the rest in the Fire cause they Burnt so Pretty and Colorfully.
FF 2019-2020 I was trolling E-Bay about a 2 months ago and notice these boxes had sold for $200+ and more recently! I start looking and see completed Sales at $200 regularly but also some at $60-$80, After I hit myself in the Forehead with the heel of my hand, I say, so why the He!! NOT! For the last month I bought 12 Boxes for less than $82, $89, $66, $42, and $41. I have't paid more than $92 for a Box. These are last 10 completed Sales on E-Bay:
1/29/2020
$275
$374 BBCE Unopened Wax Box
$224
$250
$359 BBCE Unopened Wax Box
$349 BBCE MisLeading Title of Listing, seems like FASC but is NOT! Unopened Wax Box (Probably a Newby buyer)
$750 (3 Boxes, $250 Each)
$250
$222
A few more Sales on the 29th in the $200 range
1/28/2020 Week of
Approx 20 Boxes sold in the $200-$400 range! Some BBCE, Some BBCE FASC, most no authentication
So to answer the OP's question of what's up with these Boxes, see above!
Am I hopping on the Bandwagon to make a few bucks.......
HeIli Yea!!!
Am I using my 50+ years in collectibles to see a trend playing out and this may be one of the last gasps, but at least I'm in!
Occasionally after 60 years of collecting, something drops in your lap! So I bought 6 Boxes all raw with 6 more on the way! I also had the Buyers send them to Steve to Authenticate. Chances of there being funny business with $100-$200 Boxes is at least diminished, (Although ONE Seller refused to send the Box I won to BBCE and cancelled the Sale and refunded. I didn't Buy these to resell immediately but when 1990-91 Wax Boxes BBCE Wax Boxes hit $500 a Box, I'm all over it! If not I Doubt I will Ever lose at the Buy Prices I Locked in....But then Again, look at 2012!
Only reason I'm mentioning it here at all is that I Rode this Pony until it was Hot & Steamy and put it away Wet! I'm done on this, so the Temp inflated prices will stop next week!
And just So Ya Know... I am currently buying Boxes of 2 other sets..........Same Purposes and No Apologies!
Oh and My Son won $5,055.00 dollars on the GameStop fiasco, He Sold today at $410 share at opening! He just needs to get paid out, which is my concern! But he only has a couple hundred total into it anyway!
YeeHaw!
Neil