What is a Rare Card These Days?

PSARich

I haven't posted on the board for quite awhile....retired and have been traveling and getting adjusted. But I have kept up with my sports card collection and felt a need to hear what members are thinking in regard to the latest explosion in the market. I am amazed at prices obtained for manufactured rare football and mostly basketball cards (1 of 1, 1 of 5, 1 of 10, etc) over the past six months. I seems to me that investors are obviously driving this market much more than collectors and I fear what will happen to the hobby if some of these rookie phenoms become good players but not all time greats. If so, their card prices will bottom out, big money spenders will be left with huge losses, and the hobby might well lose some interest and credibility.

Now I turn my focus to what I admit is a old time collector's view of what a rare high grade card was originally defined to be. That being an old sports card that although printed in perhaps tens or even hundreds of thousands at the time, has seen very few survive the years in mint condition. They are rare, much like fine antiques, in that they, for whatever reason, avoided the wear and tear of usage so prevalent years ago. This in comparison to many modern rarities, which are rare due to manufacturer's limited production and are hardly touched. I guess you could say that rare is rare simply because few exists in a certain condition but what is the view of collectors when comparing a 80-90 year old mint vintage card to that printed in 2020?

Here is a good example. Recently I made a bid on what I would think is a very rare vintage baseball card. I didn't expect to win it. I had checked the PSA Completed Auction Prices and saw it sold for $4200 last year, so I bid $3500 on it and thought it would be fun to see where I stood when the dust had settled. I had that amount in my eBay account from card sales so I wasn't worried about paying if I won. Winning I did for $3,460+ and upon receiving the card it is every bit the mint card projected on the auction scan - 1934 Goudey #32 John "Blondy" Ryan PSA 9 Mint.

This card is a pop 2. Of over 24,000 1934 Goudeys graded, PSA has awarded less than 200 9s and 10s or about .008 percent. It is estimated, based on Goudey's sales data ($220,000) from 1934 that about 22,000,000 one penny packs were sold. Of that number just over 200 (including SGC, BVG) have been graded mint or better. This card survived the years and yet it's sales can't match modern rarities. I suppose the answer is interest in vintage vs modern cards. After all, who ever heard of "Blondy" Ryan?

I am still thinking that $5,200,000 for a 1952 Topps Mantle is most likely a better investment than $3,930,000 for a Mike Trout 2009 Bowman Chrome Draft Prospects Superfractor signed rookie card. There is something to be said for a player's legacy. At this time Mike Trout is a great ballplayer with no championships. Mickey Mantle was a great ballplayer with many. Perhaps 1 of 1 won't hold up to 1 of 9 (9s and 10s). What do you think?

TheGoonies1985

No modern rarity to me that is for sure anything mid 1990's and up. Some like them I guess it does make opening packs enjoyable. But would never ever pay for one. I do not care if it is a 1/1 of 1/1 of 1/1.

TheGoonies1985

I no longer collect cards I prefer coins. But there are some modern day cards I think are worth owning such as Babe Ruth autos and game used cards. If Ty Cobb has any I would add him to that list and a few other players.

BriantheTaxGuy

The Trout card is a 1/1, combining a highly desirable RC of the modern-day Mantle with an autograph. There will be no others ever discovered, or graded, and this card will only increase in value.

The Mantle, while highly desirable, is not unique, nor even the highest graded example of the card.

Rarity is subjective and attempting to factor in championships is damning. We kill guys who move teams (i.e. Durant) and win a title, while at the same time killing guys who show loyalty and not win (Trout).

In today's market, championships matter less and less to collectors and investors.

blurryface

this will be way off anyone's radar here, but on a tip from another fellow collector we bought a couple of fortnite series 1 boxes back when they were $40 a pop. the same boxes now are $400.

anyways, going in we were told that card #252 black knight is near impossible to pull. the other guy ripped 8 boxes and finally got one. we ripped our 5 boxes and only got 1. every other card we got multiples and in the low numbers up to five of each. so my son basically has 1 full set which consists of only 300 cards.

and this is just a flat out base card to fill the set. not a foil, cracked ice or numbered refractor or any of that jazz. flat out base card.

this was about 8 months ago, when the cards just came out. flash forward to present day, these raw base cards (usa printed ones, not italy) are getting $700+ each. if you happen to get a holo foil or ice card, you're looking at $5k - $20k+.

it's insane. couldn't believe it myself.

eta: and word has obviously spread. usa printed boxes are near impossible to find now. 6 pack blaster boxes are $200. where as full hobby boxes that had 160 cards used to be $30 plus s/h.

it took nearly 40 years for the nasty nick card to be a $500 raw card. this card is already there and if the fortnite gen comes back to it for nostalgia purposes like we all did w our favorite toys and cards, there no telling how much one of these base cards could be worth in 20 years.

jeffv96masters

Rare means nothing.

Money to be made is always ruled by desirability.

And that is always ruled by who want's what, and when.

More involved than that if someone's looking to have a strong investment they can turn $$ on later. Get the wrong advice and the portfolio will be 1/60th what someone else developed.

Personal opinion of course
Jeff

1951WheatiesPremium

There were people that thought the guy who bought a PSA 10 1952 Topps Mantle for a 100,000ish in the 1990s was a fool.

When he sells that card (if he sells it), the first order of business will be to buy that vault from Scrooge McDuck so that he can go swimming in all that money.

No one can predict the future. You have to get a little lucky with every investment you make. Markets rise and fall as do empires. Collect what you like at prices you can afford and you’ll always be happy.

PSARich

From reading the responses I would add this.

I believe that "rare" does mean something to collectors of vintage cards as well as modern. Normally a vintage card in PSA 9 will sell higher than an 8 because typically there are fewer of them; they are more rare. Same with modern PSA 10s compared to lesser grades. However, I also would agree with Jeffv96masters that demand or desirability drives the value. It appears much of the big money is currently looking at desirable modern rarities to invest in as opposed to much older cards and at auction there is obviously no shortage of bidders. Whether these investments pay off in the future, as with most investments, will be determined in the future. Much has been made of sports cards as investments by financial experts in recent years and this has no doubt drawn an influx of investors. The question becomes when has a card's value maxed? One responder mentioned high grade 1952 Topps Mantles. Most were surprised by the recent PSA 9 sale of 5.2 million, so has a plateau been reached or will the next one sell for higher yet? Same for the modern LeBron James RCs. When will they reach their peak value because that is when collectors and investors will back off. A big difference is that a high grade (PSA 9, 10?) 1952 Mantle reaches the market infrequently while LeBron's RCs currently make a weekly appearance.

I believe the vintage card market will probably maintain its stability better than the high value modern cards. This stability also minimizes the opportunity for profit. For example, the card I displayed will probably fluctuate little in value in the near future while the modern cards we have discussed will have much more movement and as of late this movement has been up, up up.

One thing I have learned during my 40 years of collecting is that there will be periods of market value stability and instability, much like a mutual fund. It all seems to settle down and recalibrate at certain points in time.