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Do you think prices will drop once the grading companies catch up?

I became a PSA collector in June of this year buying only NFL HOFer cards. Since that time I've seen prices skyrocket on ebay, cards that I purchased this summer graded PSA 8 I couldn't buy today if they are graded PSA 7. I realize SMR is really of no value as well as the avg. price listed. It's crazy right now.

My thoughts are with long turnaround times with all of the big grading companies, people are buying the cards already graded and willing to pay more for them. What I wonder is; will prices drop when all of these cards being graded flood the market and you can get cards graded and returned in a reasonable period of time?

I guess I'll find out but in the meantime I'm shopping raw cards at a fraction of the cost for another shipment in for grading. All my cards are for my PC so time isn't too important for me.

Curious to know what others think.
Thanks

Comments

  • LarkinCollectorLarkinCollector Posts: 8,860 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I think there will be a drop in the Ultra and perhaps some of the Modern category as pops rapidly increase once the backlog is cleared (assuming that ever happens). I don't think there's enough quality vintage being submitted to significantly impact pricing in upper grades.

  • Agreed, I'd expect to see prices drop for some of the newer guys (Jackson, Watson, maybe Mahomes depending on how things go in the next couple of weeks) as more cards are graded and FOMO diminishes. I recently sold off some of these because the prices were too good and the pop numbers really couldn't justify the price IMO. Compare Peyton Maning/2000 (pop 521 in 9 and 93 in a 100) and Drew Brees/999 (pop 127 in 9 and
    only 7 in a 10) are going for under 3K in a PSA 9 and Mahomes (pop 1744 in a 9 and 850 in a 10). who is selling for close to 2K in a 9.

    I've wondered about the overall increase in prices myself. I only collect football, so I don't know if other sports are seeing similar rises. I think football has been undervalued compared to say, baseball. Football has become more popular but doesn't have nearly the collecting history as baseball. Part of it may be attributed to the coronavirus. More people at home with time to spend on hobbies? Less travel and eating out means more disposable income?

  • LarkinCollectorLarkinCollector Posts: 8,860 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Basketball has gone the craziest, but it's been a pretty significant rise across all sports recently.

  • I agree with Larkin; modern may suffer from availability issues, but the supply of vintage cards is not being significantly impacted by the grading shortage.

    Even if grading were happening in a timely manner, high-quality examples of everything is so hot it likely wouldn't matter.

  • JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 8,292 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Depends on the player and if a whole bunch of 10's suddenly appear.

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
  • paulb71paulb71 Posts: 31 ✭✭

    I honestly thought back in March 2020 when the pandemic hit that prices for 60’s ,70’s, and early 80’s unopened graded material would drop low like it was back in 2010 but by my surprise the prices are even higher now then they were back in March which is a good thing but I was just hoping to stock up had the prices dropped

  • I agree that the backlog has caused some of the pricing increases, but the dollar is not worth what it was either. The economy will determine where card prices go in the next couple years. They can't just keep printing money like they are!

  • DMasciDMasci Posts: 55 ✭✭

    I also think we are back to the "I'm going to get rich with cards" mentality that we had in the early 90s. As a football card collector vs. investor I just can't seem to grasp paying some of the crazy high prices on new cards for today's stars who's careers can end with an injury, what happens to their cards then?

    In my short time collecting NFL HOFers I've seen prices soar as well. A mid 70s card last summer graded PSA 8 sold for less than that same card sells today for a PSA 7. I wonder if it is supply drying up or if people are just trying to get what they can for a card while the market is hot. I find I'm buying raw cards and taking a chance just because they are selling for so much less than even a card graded at least PSA 7 with plans to fill my sets by sending them in myself for grading.

  • I don't think grading will "catch-up" until the prices drop.

  • They are raising the prices on grading the lower priced cards (ie bulk submissions). So, I am guessing that will increase the price of those cards (less supply). But, it will also mean fewer collectors will start registry sets that need cards like that. (long term-less demand). Hard to predict how it will shake out.

  • MCMLVToppsMCMLVTopps Posts: 3,660 ✭✭✭✭

    My 2 cents...

    Leaving out star cards, supply and demand are keys to pricing. IF when this glut of gradings comes out and POPs increase substantially, it simply has to drive prices down, no question. How far down is the unknown, but the market will find its pricing. I happen to know a guy that's sending in over 200 cards at $20 a pop. Last year it would have been $9 per card.

    So, pricing has gone up to $20 per card...does anyone think it will go down anytime soon? Other than the horrible wait times, its still a bargain unless you just send in commons left and right, or ratty cards that should never be in the mix in the first place.

    As for Vintage...the crack outs will live on. I have posted about this ad nauseum, but PSA brought that one upon themselves, in turn have pretty much decimated the validity of the POP report in many areas. The 55 Topps set is a great example of this, with untold crack outs of original PSA 5,6,and7s seeking the half point bump or better. As an example (one more time), if you have a 1955 Topps card in a PSA 5 slab and you just KNOW it deserves a better grade, and you crack it, send it in and don't get a new satisfactory grade, you crack and re crack, leaving a bunch of orphans behind you from the original and other crack outs. Point is, the original PSA 5, has now morphed into however many times you send it in until you feel happy with the higher grade....all the other cards, including the original do not exist, but have inflated the POP report and made the true count invalid and useless. Can't ever be fixed.

    So, catch the quarterly's if you have cards in that group, or pay the $20. I suspect when the flood has subsided, the powers to be at PSA will realize what's happening and lower the costs. After all, we're their cash cow, no need to make things too painful. However, let's also be mindful that PSA is not a charitable organization, they exist to make a profit, they can set whatever price they want, I guess we should all be thankful they didn't go to a higher cost...I really expect they will lower costs at some point, maybe another year or so...just a guess. They just happen to be drinking water from a fire hose at this point.

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