Does a green CAC bean lower the value of nice coins in OGH?
FredF
Posts: 525 ✭✭✭
Theoretical question: Assume there is a coin in an OGH that is an attractive coin. Just to pick round numbers, assume also that it's a coin that retails at $1k in its stated grade and $5k next grade higher. The exact dollar amounts don't matter, it's just an example.
If the coin has no bean, and it looks attractive, a seller/consignor may run into potential buyers who are trying to figure out the odds of the crackout game. Nice coin, conservatively graded by old standards, may well be worth paying more than retail of that grade money to take a shot at the crackout. But if the coin has a green bean, then JA has said that it's a solid for the stated grade. If he thought it would crackout and upgrade , he'd have put a gold bean on it. So this coin might get sold closer to "nice looking at the stated grade" money instead of "nice looking with a decent upgrade chance."
Just a thought that popped into my head when I saw an OGH coin with a green bean in an auction catalog.
Successful BST (me as buyer) with: Collectorcoins, PipestonePete, JasonRiffeRareCoins
Comments
But if the coin has a green bean, then JA has said that it's a solid for the stated grade.
Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe the green bean is given for coins that are at the top of the grade range not for those that are just solid. As to your question it will be case by case evaluation, and just how generic/common the coin is will be part of the factor.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
No.
I see a OGH with green bean as a potential upgrade using the reconsideration option. I’ve had a coin rebean at the new reconsidered next higher grade (63 to 64+). Others have said this has occurred to them. So I’d say your assumption is wrong in some cases.
Yes, I think a green bean has that potential, particularly on a great looking coin in an early holder. Especially where there is a big jump in price between single grades.
--Severian the Lame
I find the OP’s thoughts very interesting and thought provoking. While JA’s opinion is just that, an opinion, it is one that many put full faith in at the expense of their own opinion.
JA has green beaned coins and then reconsidered and gold beaned them.
I have an OGH coin (my avatar) that has a green bean in 64. To my eye it is so clearly Gem that the green bean somewhat annoys me. The dealer that sold me the coin had the same opinion—should have received a gold bean.
It seems that JA often won’t gold bean a coin unless it’s two grades undergraded, not just one.
I agree that a coin that really looks undergraded, but has a green bean, may sell to some for more with no bean—however, anyone can check the cert number on CAC’s site and see if someone has removed a bean.
No.
I understand what you are asking and I think it's a good question. Theoretically in the example that @Catbert gave it should've had a gold bean when it was in a 63 holder.
I believe that in some cases, the answer is yes. And apparently, so do certain sharp sellers, as I know of some who have removed green stickers from coins, when they’d been hoping for gold ones. By the way, the answer would be the same for coins in other/non-OGH’s too.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
My understanding is that the green sticker signifies CAC’s opinion that the coin is solid for the grade or high end.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I had a friend send an old holder NGC 65 Morgan in. It received a green bean. It was cracked and regraded with PCGS Secure, came back 66. It again was sent to CAC, where it green beaned again at 66. It was cracked a third (and final) time and sent back in to PCGS where it graded 67. It failed CAC the final time around.
Gold beans are super hard to get, there is a reason they generally are priced 1.5-2 grades up.
Professional Numismatist. "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
Yes I agree that it can. There's a perception that a green bean means the coin is only nice for its grade and if it was undergraded then it would gold bean. This isn't quite the case since they are so strict with handing out gold beans. Have seen a number of coins green beaned in their current grade, upgraded, and then green beaned again. Not uncommon at all.
I would say no.
It depends on the coin.
It depends.
"There are no called strikes in coin collecting."--
Henry David ThoreauRYKI understand your premise and in some cases would say yes it can.
So did we like the coin better as a 66 CAC or a 67?
I thought it was "right" at 66 CAC, maybe 66+ CAC, I think it was cracked with hopes of the plus, the 7 was a surprise.
Professional Numismatist. "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
The bean will not lower the value of the coin. If the coin itself looks like an upgrade possibility the sticker will not change that. Anyone who thinks because a coin received a green sticker that it can not upgrade is sadly mistaken.
CAC! QUACK! I'll do my own evaluation!
I have seen green beaners upgrade many, many times. Take that for what it’s worth....
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
My Full Walker Registry Set:
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
To use your 66/67 grade example, I have seen many, many 66 Gold Beans sell for much more than a 67.
If the question was "POTENTIAL value of nice coins in OGH" then the answer is maybe.
But the way it was asked will get answers all over the place.
This is an interesting question and one which I have often wondered. Assuming it is the same coin, would you rather have it be a PQ 66 CAC or a low-end 67 no sticker? I'll take the 67 all day but I think I am in the minority. To me, it's like would you rather barely get an A or have the best B+ you can get?
@TheMayor I’d say that I’d prefer the presumably proper graded 66 with the bean. I think I’d also, in many cases, receive more market value too with my preference.
It's not quite that simple because it depends on the cost. If the price is the same, then most likely the 67 has more upside for resale. But if the 67 is significantly more money, then you may stand a better chance of a good return selling a high-end 66 CAC than a low-end 67.
Think of it like grades the way you suggested. If I could get a B+ or an A- by studying the same amount, of course I'd rather the A-. But if I had to study enough more for that A- that my grade on another assignment suffered (or I didn't have the money to buy another coin I want) then while I maximized the result for one aspect, on the whole I may have done worse.
@Catbert But why is the more conservative grade proper? I am sure there are coins out there that are legitimately on the border between 66.9 and 67.0. I find it interesting that many will prefer the 66.9 and I don't disagree with your market observation. If I had to guess, I think people don't like the "low end" connotation and they don't want their coin to be "low end" anything. But, by definition, an accurately graded low end 67 is a better coin than an accurately graded high end 66.
@airplanenut I agree with everything you wrote and your example makes sense to me. Certainly it depends on the situation and the cost/upside plays into it. But, to brush off a term from my econ undergrad days, ceteris paribus, I'll take the 67.
To complicate it, I'll say it depends on the series.
Define "accurate" in the context of a subjective evaluation based on somewhat vague and evolving standards.
I suppose that makes sense, but are people really checking to see if a bean has been removed?
As @MFeld noted, if it bothers you, just remove it - I suspect 99 out of 100 wouldn't figure it out.
Successful BST Transactions: erwindoc, VTchaser, moursund, robkool, RelicKING, Herb_T
@CoinJunkie Accuracy is defined by expert consensus. If you have 10 grading experts independently evaluate the same coin, and nine call it 66 and one calls it a 67, then the "accurate" grade is 66, at least for the standards of that era. I think TPGs and the hobby more generally strive for permanent standards but, as you mention, they appear to have evolved over time, at least for certain series.
But will your buyers?
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars
I believe the green bean can only help, but ultimately it’s the coin itself that will determine its value. If it’s really nice, regardless of the holder or whether it has a sticker, it can upgrade. I’ve had numerous coins with a green bean upgrade when resubmitted for regrade, and then green beaned again at the next higher grade. I’ve also had coins that failed to earn a bean get upgraded when resubmitted for regrade.
And on several occasions, I’ve had a green beaned coin that looked so nice I’ve asked JA to reconsider for a gold bean....
Dave
It is to people that don't know how to grade coins - only able to read numbers on a piece of paper in a slab.
Grading (and CAC) are there for $$$. They take away much speculation and nail things down more solidly - not just taking someone's word for it. The slabs (and CAC) are there for resale. Him and haw all you want, but that's the truth.
;
This whole CAC debate will be around as long as coins are collected. To me a green sticker will never hurt a coin, but will prevent it from being sold for as much as that same coin with a gold sticker.
I've talked to JA about the difference between a green and gold sticker and I've posted it here before. He told me that a green sticker does not mean a coin is not under graded. He said that a coin can easily get a green at one grade, cracked and regraded at the next grade up and still make a green sticker. He then said that in order for a coin to get a gold sticker, it would have to essentially be at least 1.9 grading points under graded in their opinion. So, for a coin graded 65 to receive a gold sticker it would have to be equal to a 66.9 or higher in their opinion.
I've seen a particular Morgan Dollar go from a 65+ green CAC to a 67 green CAC and finally into a 68 green CAC. I can't explain how it was not in a gold CAC at 65, but for it to rise 3 grading points and still go green shows that a coin is not locked into the grade it currently is assigned with only a green bean.
Just like everything in this hobby, it's all subjective. You should always buy the coin and not the holder or holder and sticker. If you have developed your grading eye, you can find bargains out there. I personally like CAC and use them, because it confirms my opinion on the coin I bought. I have rarely bought a coin that already has a CAC sticker on it. A large percentage of the coins I've submitted for myself have passed with many getting a gold.
Wow!
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
It shouldn't affect it. I would leave it to what the buyer wants. Jmo
Theoretical questions do more to spread misinformation and create strereotypes and impressions that are of services and not coins. It truly is unfortunate that plastic and stickers seem to generate more interest than what is in the plastic. There is no good answer to your question other than to understand the characteristics of what makes a coin stand out from others at the same grade.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
People seem to forget, we are debating 'opinions', not facts. A grade is an opinion - indeed, when done by 'professionals', a practiced opinion. But still an opinion. It is not a scientific, measurable, repeatable fact. That is why there are so many 'cases' of changed grades and beans cited above. This somewhat nebulous world of grade opinions will continue until solid, defined, measurable standards are implemented and accepted. Cheers, RickO
I got his for only a few hundred dollars above what normal dreggy Fs go for and due to price compression at the bottom of the type, about 1k above what a problem or lesser examples go for. I think it would have gone for more with no sticker. Is it a lock VF, no. Is it way nicer than most other flowing hair yes. Grades are a factor of like 10 attributes and wear is only one but disproportionately weighted. Decent coin to put away
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
@Crypto , nice FH dollar, but not VF in my opinion. For that reason, I'm not convinced it would have cost more sans sticker. Early type and gold buyers particularly like CAC in my experience.
The current "holder", "sticker", "value" obsession is out of control. Why not just learn how to grade yourselves and let the coin itself do the talking.
No
JA green sticker indicates it’s an A or B coin. Beyond that any premium is subjective conjecture - an issue to be settled in transaction between buyer and seller.
Additionally Any crackout player is going to factor in grading cost. A recent submission (1 coin) reg svc cost me around $65 once one tally’s all fees and shipx. So the play would have to have really big potential to pitch the ball behind line of scrimmage. From my table off bourse might offer full CDN bid vs just the usual bluesheet. Other than that they will need sell somewhere else. I don’t offer above grade on holder (or base offers on conjecture) - want more well send it in then.
Clearly not VF wear. More might not have been the right context but what I think it did do is put a ceiling on it’s price. What we are talking about is limiting the one or two jump bids at the end of an exciting auction and not a fundamental rebase lining of value. Eliminating just a few “it will upgrade” bidders does suppress value.
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
I sent a gorgeous PCGS 40 with a green sticker to JA for reconsideration. He explained to me that he felt the coin was a 45 but that he would not gold sticker it because if he did there would be too many coins with gold stickers and he felt that my coin had to be undergraded by at least two points to earn a gold sticker.
Interesting!! I suspected as much since you just don't see very many gold CACs below uncirculated. The few I have seen clearly meant it was in the wrong range and at the top end of the next (should be high AU instead of XF, or mid/high MS instead of AU)
I have a gold stickered NGC OH 40 which I’ve previously posted which looks like it’s at least a 50 by today’s grading standards.
I have to correct myself. As of right now it has not received a green CAC sticker at 68. But it did go green at 65+ and at 67+ (Not 67 as I originally posted). It started out in a 65+ holder less than 10 years old.