Damned if you do, damned if you don't
Coinosaurus
Posts: 9,637 ✭✭✭✭✭
Ursula Kampmann writes on the Coins Weekly blog:
"So it’s up to the mints. If they issue too many coins, collectors that were able to buy a specimen will complain because there’s no increase in value. If they issue too few coins, collectors that weren’t able to get hold of a specimen will complain because the coins were sold to the wrong people – depending on who you ask: dealers / collectors / foreigners / investors / new customers – and because the mintage was too low.
In other words: they will complain either way. Considering this, a mint should be able to afford the PR stunt of producing a bestseller with a dramatic price increase. The many new customers who will start to buy coins regularly, hoping to make the big money, will easily make up for the few upset ones who actually stop buying."
It's a cynical point of view, but her reasoning makes sense.
Comments
There will always be dissatisfaction... human nature. You just cannot please everyone. Cheers, RickO
The end state is the collector. Turn Off the collector and flippers have no market
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Ursula Kampmann is a very knowledgable lady. She has her finger on Numismatics world wide.
She is happiest in her home in the Black Forest.
One thing is for sure and applies as a minimum to Canada and the RCM:
they issue a new r rip off "metal item and call it coin" for any stupid event. If there is no event, they simply invent one.
ever heard of an $8 coin lately? check the "Non-circulating legal tender catalogue" of the RCM, available at Charltons... it is thicker than the regular catalogue containing Canadian coins from 1858 to now...,. and a few related ones.
it obviously makes money... and an awful lot of it. so who cares about some disappointed "collectors" or dealers.
Have you ever heard of a $20 coin FV, containing about 3 grams of silver and being sold by the mint as NCLT for $20?
Funny thing is: you have no way of spending that NCLT
i
The fact that you can't have an increase in value driven by scarcity and an unlimited supply simultaneously is lost on many.
There is an optimal number of coins to produce that minimizes the number of people that are unhappy. A mintage of 1 coin gives widespread misery due to unsatisfied demand. An mintage of 10,000,000,000 will give widespread misery due to value decrease from a permanent over-supply, but those that simply want a coin for their collection will be happy, as all demand would be fulfilled. There's some number in between that is optimal with respect to minimizing cumulative misery over time. Allowing "mint to demand" lets the market guess at this number, even if the market contains competing interests for what that mintage should be.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
I don't think it's just the quantity. I think there would be less frustration if the Mint's order website worked as expected, as discussed here at length and by US Mint Director David J. Ryder:
https://www.usmint.gov/news/press-releases/message-from-united-states-mint-director-david-ryder
Wonder why this wasn't included in the article? Or was it? I'm just seeing the excerpt above.
To begin and be clear, like so many during the month of November I was extremely frustrated in not acquiring an ASE, the 75th medal or any of the Mayflower issues. That said, I do not fault the United States mint over such "low" production limits, rather how the use of a capcha applied when logged on under a registered user account. This should be, and is, verification as those registered are stored on the mint's mainframe. Now, for those complaining of such low mintages. In any series these are always chased after and purchased for ridiculous amounts at times. So this is no different here with modern releases. From my personal experience of 46 years collecting mintage totals mean very little in the context most collectors place it. Here is a perfect example applied to modern minted coinage. That 2020 75th Anniversary American Silver Eagle, with a mintage of 75,000 is selling in excess of $500 and $800 graded PF70. As a collector of the Australian Wedge-tailed Eagles, with mintages no higher than 50,000 since 2014, none of the 12 purchased have exceeded $150. And all PCGS or NGC MS-PF70. What's more interesting, several have mintage totals of 5,000. So why the huge difference between a lower and far greater production total? Popularity. So to be so angry over a mintage number is silly. Back to the Wedge-tailed, the reverse was designed by John Mercanti- same engraver of the ASE- and personally, a much better looking coin.
I think the 75k of the V75 ASE is a nice sweet spot.
Collector, occasional seller
Or Mint to demand and the buyers will determine what the rarities will be. Give a week or a month or whatever for a coin, no household limits. When it is done it is done. Returns are scrapped and the mintage is adjusted accordingly. Those that want one gets one. No over selling due to flippers. Specialty dealers of 70s can get quantity for their markets. Rarities will truly be made based on customer demand or lack thereof.
When was the last time you turned off collecting? Besides, if the mint didn't produce any low mintage coins the flippers still have no market increase.
In a nutshell.
Nothing worth having is easy to come by. That being said--I would keep the mintages low, so the collectors who can get them will have something decent in value.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
I don't know Len, i feel most people could agree that limited production and targeted collector distributions are both possible. For example my father inlaw buys the ASE and mint sets every year (to my dismay). He couldn't get on quick enough for the the 75th ASE or just about any of the silver eagle special sets. I think they should do 1st access / membership programs with previous purchases taken into consideration to give real collectors spots in line. Then open them up for the slummy flipping hoards.
I only care because he then whines to my wife who then makes me buy one for him on the aftermarket from the flippers who get all excited for a few hundred bucks
I see it as simple as us as a hobby should not be encourage profiteering off of low level collectors, disenfranchisement of annual collectors or even manufactured rarities as they all threaten the hobby its self similar to what happened with comics, cards and many other genres. just My 2c
Happy Holidays
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
Coin- the hobby is not in its hay day
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Yes, there are very angry people out there and many irate people have posted on these forums. It’s scary.
Personally, I think the Mint is walking a dangerous line. If they cater too much to speculation people will get burned even more than they are now. Not the purpose of the Mint.
Keep producing sought-after artistically and intrinsically valuable coins. Worry less about manufactured rarities, low mintages. Fix the damn website.
The rest will take care of itself.
I think they should stick to creating instruments of commerce for the people who employ them - (us, if you weren’t sure).
Leave collectibles up to private enterprise. I don’t care if the mint makes money doing it. That’s not their place and by doing so they’re in competition with legitimate private businesses.
But, my beef lies mostly with Congress. The mint usually just follows orders.
Artistic appeal could use a lot of work.
Of course then you have people complaining that they have to buy $10,000-$100,000 (depending on where the line is drawn) of worthless mint product just to get the one coin they really want. If you accept that there is a problem of established collectors wanting to get certain coins from the mint and the mint trying to attract new collectors, there is no good solution.
My son collects other things than coins,,,,,,, some little plastic statues that are very limited release,,,,, don't remember what they are called.
He also reads a forum where they discuss having bots to order them Recently they are posting letting the guys know about hot coins and they brag about getting multiple pcs using their bots, I suspect many of these "NEW" members here offering pcs for sale are members over at that site and using bots to get them.
JMHO,,,,,,
No doubt on that one. Those seagulls have mostly come and gone already
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They "Took the money and ran"
While you’re right at least if you give collectors a chance, it is then up to them. Now collectors are just short. I don’t think it should be $$$$ measured. I would do time as a member or what ever I needed to to get the coins to the collectors and not opportunistic suckerfish with broadband
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set