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What would happen to coin values if.....

bidaskbidask Posts: 13,834 ✭✭✭✭✭
I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




Comments

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 33,811 ✭✭✭✭✭
  • 87redcivic87redcivic Posts: 118 ✭✭✭

    Coin value charts would approximately mirror the 1976 to 1982 era???

  • JimnightJimnight Posts: 10,767 ✭✭✭✭✭

    :o

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,892 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 20, 2020 7:46PM

    Persistent deflation in consumer products (brought on by globalization and technology) has led the Fed to artificially depress interest rates to stave off more widespread deflation, thereby fueling debt and asset bubbles. A severe decline in the dollar would set off a reversal of all of those trends, i.e., higher consumer price inflation, higher interest rates, and bursting debt and asset bubbles. In that environment, I don't see any opportunities in holding onto anything, although I do think that rare coins and bullion will be a relatively safe haven. Of course, some coins will prove far safer than others.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • SIowhandSIowhand Posts: 319 ✭✭✭✭✭

    That ‘article’ is two sentences long. I wouldn’t be too concerned about it’s prediction.

    The dollar may indeed implode one day. But I’ve heard that it was right around the corner my entire life.

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,892 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 20, 2020 7:52PM

    @SIowhand said:
    That ‘article’ is two sentences long. I wouldn’t be too concerned about it’s prediction.

    The dollar may indeed implode one day. But I’ve heard that it was right around the corner my entire life.

    He's been predicting this for a while, using many more words than you see in the article. And he's no dummy.

    Read more here:

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crash-dollar-coming-210024166.html

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 33,811 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 20, 2020 7:58PM

    The inability to reign in the debt is really interesting.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,118 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 20, 2020 8:03PM

    Simple: inflation.

    Lower dollar value equal higher prices.

    @bidask said:

    35% drop in the US dollar predicted

    Keep in mind that that's a 35% drop from it's current value. It's current value is less than 5% of it 1913 (year Federal Reserve took over money) value.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • fathomfathom Posts: 1,513 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Gold and silver skyrocket.

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,892 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Simple: inflation.

    Lower dollar value equal higher prices.

    @bidask said:

    35% drop in the US dollar predicted

    Keep in mind that that's a 35% drop from it's current value. It's current value is less than 5% of it 1913 (year Federal Reserve took over money) value.

    A change in exchange rates isn't the same thing as a change in purchasing power, except with respect to imports.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • scubafuelscubafuel Posts: 1,723 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Andy, I appreciate your comments around the massive deflationary move caused by tech (and tech enabled “free” products like FB and this message board).
    Inflation hawks easily underestimate just how much cheaper tech has made things.

    Can that continue? I think yes, especially if healthcare can get the same treatment that retail and communications have received.

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,892 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 20, 2020 9:22PM

    @scubafuel said:
    Andy, I appreciate your comments around the massive deflationary move caused by tech (and tech enabled “free” products like FB and this message board).
    Inflation hawks easily underestimate just how much cheaper tech has made things.

    Can that continue? I think yes, especially if healthcare can get the same treatment that retail and communications have received.

    Agreed, and that will serve to moderate consumer inflation even as the cost of imports soars.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If you think gold is expensive now, you haven't seen anything yet.... If the above scenario does play out, gold will double.... I see PM's being the major safe haven for a while.... Cheers, RickO

  • ReadyFireAimReadyFireAim Posts: 1,800 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @badger said:
    US debt is terrible but is no worse than most of the other countries and better than some. EU is still being drug down by

    I've heard it said that the dollar is the best looking horse at the glue factory. :D

  • ashelandasheland Posts: 22,612 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @fathom said:
    Gold and silver skyrocket.

    And numismatic usually follows along...

  • badgerbadger Posts: 1,217 ✭✭✭

    If the 35% drop in USD did happen relative to the other currencies, then a downward spiral would start. In the worst case, it would force USA into asset sales. Has happened to countries before. Early 1800's France was broke, bankrupt, and kaput from waging the Napoleonic Wars. Banks were funding both sides of the conflicts but decided it was throwing good money after bad. So the world banks stopped lending to France and called the notes. And the USA refused to provide loans to France. France was forced into asset sales.

    What was the asset? Louisiana Territory - that the USA picked up for $15M in gold.

    If the USD crashed, first to go will be any gold left in reserves. Then better start considering a sales price for Alaska to Russia and Hawaii to Japan. And would only be necessary because Congress' spending is out of control.

    Collector of Modern Silver Proofs 1950-1964 -- PCGS Registry as Elite Cameo

    Link to 1950 - 1964 Proof Registry Set
    1938 - 1964 Proof Jeffersons w/ Varieties
  • 3stars3stars Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Alaska won't be for sale - the amount of US military assets and training areas up here would prevent that.

    Previous transactions: Wondercoin, goldman86, dmarks, Type2
  • daltexdaltex Posts: 3,477 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @badger said:
    If the 35% drop in USD did happen relative to the other currencies, then a downward spiral would start. In the worst case, it would force USA into asset sales. Has happened to countries before. Early 1800's France was broke, bankrupt, and kaput from waging the Napoleonic Wars. Banks were funding both sides of the conflicts but decided it was throwing good money after bad. So the world banks stopped lending to France and called the notes. And the USA refused to provide loans to France. France was forced into asset sales.

    What was the asset? Louisiana Territory - that the USA picked up for $15M in gold.

    If the USD crashed, first to go will be any gold left in reserves. Then better start considering a sales price for Alaska to Russia and Hawaii to Japan. And would only be necessary because Congress' spending is out of control.

    Huh? Things have changed over the last 200 years. Many countries have defaulted on debt since, say, we stopped exchanging gold for dollars at a fixed rate. None, as far as I know, were forced to surrender gold or territory.

  • SIowhandSIowhand Posts: 319 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 21, 2020 3:37PM

    @badger said:

    What was the asset? Louisiana Territory - that the USA picked up for $15M in gold.

    We actually paid with US Gov bonds with a payment schedule over multiple years. France, needing the money right away, sold those bonds at a discount. I don't recall to whom. A British bank maybe??

    We borrowed the money.

  • CoinJunkieCoinJunkie Posts: 8,772 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Zoins said:
    The inability to reign in the debt is really interesting.

    Actually, the government has been "reigning in the debt" for many decades now. What they haven't done is rein in the debt. ;)

  • badgerbadger Posts: 1,217 ✭✭✭
    edited October 21, 2020 6:52PM

    was trying to answer directly the question - 35% drop in USD... that is catastrophic... is not like the same percentage drop in stock market.. currency is much more leveraged.... things we would think are unimaginable now would be the 'new normal'..

    Might not be able to borrow because interest rates would be prohibitive... most likely would print 'money' similar to Germany being forced to pay reparations after WWI... that resulted in hyperinflation... Germany was limited in continuing with the printing because they ran out of printing press time and paper at one point. Our good government is thinking ahead. Learn from Germany and convert money to digital and won't be limited how much you can inflate.

    which would make gold increase again.... all scenarios pointing to gold going up for that case of 35% devaluation

    Collector of Modern Silver Proofs 1950-1964 -- PCGS Registry as Elite Cameo

    Link to 1950 - 1964 Proof Registry Set
    1938 - 1964 Proof Jeffersons w/ Varieties
  • BarndogBarndog Posts: 20,454 ✭✭✭✭✭

    send me your US dollars now, for which I will pay you 70 cents on the dollar, allowing you to be 5% ahead of the rest of us poor souls

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,892 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @badger said:
    was trying to answer directly the question - 35% drop in USD... that is catastrophic... is not like the same percentage drop in stock market.. currency is much more leveraged.... things we would think are unimaginable now would be the 'new normal'..

    Might not be able to borrow because interest rates would be prohibitive... most likely would print 'money' similar to Germany being forced to pay reparations after WWI... that resulted in hyperinflation... Germany was limited in continuing with the printing because they ran out of printing press time and paper at one point. Our good government is thinking ahead. Learn from Germany and convert money to digital and won't be limited how much you can inflate.

    which would make gold increase again.... all scenarios pointing to gold going up for that case of 35% devaluation

    It's not all that unusual for a country to have its currency drop 35% and not suffer severe consequences. In fact, some countries with big trade surpluses have probably benefited from declines of similar magnitude. For some historical perspective, here's a chart for the US Dollar.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.

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