The last time this much 90% disappeared off Ebay so quick was Feb/Mar
Azurescens
Posts: 2,737 ✭✭✭✭✭
...and not last Ebay bucks.
Anyone watching this weekend? Things seemed pretty normal and something changed Saturday 0600 Pacific just super thinned out within hours. I thought I left filters on and was missing stuff but uhh no, it was just straight all gone.
90% in all series and denominations has disappeared in like, 18-24h, especially higher end stuff like proof rolls, dollars.. there were some Halves left a day or two ago, the quarters thinned out and dimes gone 5 bucks at a time. all the same way, lowest hanging fruit plucked first, but even the good stuff disappeared.
A bulk of it was done before Ebay bucks hit which is what surprised me -- I had thought I was late to the party, and this was just normal.
...but no, Ebay bucks came right as the inventory of 90% started losing steam.
I fought to pay sub 300 for some half dollar rolls. Now 1950s proof rolls are nowhere to be seen at any price, JFK kinda came back but now lol. Dollar rolls will be 1000 by years end. A lot of these auctions are basically spot and in the last 5 seconds 10 FV pulls +$100 premium.
Holy s***.
Comments
Guilty, I pulled all my "90% junk silver" coin auctions until this movement in PM's stabilizes....
added: that did not have a bid
I buy and sell into the market. Over five decades now. These cycles are fun to watch and pedal (peddle) in.
This is interesting. I've never monitored ebay to gauge the silver market. What types of inquiries do you use? This seems to be a good way to track the real (retail) market.
I knew it would happen.
I review the .......... A) # per category for sale (i/e 90% US silver coins)
"completed items" (includes not sold & sold)
C) "Sold items" (completed & sold items only)
Hard to accurately track 90% on ebay, much of it is listed without "90%" or the "silver" in the title.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
True, some items are not listed as derryb described, but your search will pick up anything with silver or 90% in their title. Gives you a GENERAL idea.
Looks like normal 90% movement on fee-bay to me. Premiums still higher than the real world but the bonus bucks certainly help.
If this was easy, everyone would be doing it.
Four quarters, 10 dimes, 1 face, 1fv, any permutation of any and all of that. I have thousands of search terms I use.
You can also search like 1964 silver roll, or work your way back from the 60s and 50s by individual year. Kennedy proof rolls exist post 64, as do silver ones, so you need to be creative. This paints a much broader wholesale type picture, but also not really, because people sell individuals off the roll and use it in the title.
Admittedly I havent looked at dollar rolls in earnest for some time, but did see some 1000 ones today. Lol.
There was some political news somewhere in the world. But even then, it was just swaths of categories and rolls ir $50-$100 FV. Just all of it. Then Ebay bucks jumped off the top rope with a power elbow.
Watching it today makes me feel like its gonna break out again. It looks like everyone buying silver 90% only wants to dump their wallet when it's nice stuff.
I've had some mixed and circ Halves at 18.50 sending offers of 17.50 and nobody wants it. But then list 4 Franklin proofs and everybody loses their minds.
@jmsk52
I'm sorry I guess this didnt post.
I also use hierarchies when doing litmus tests like this. Generally:
Eisenhower
war nickels
Canadian 80%
Common 90%
Wholesale, proof, BU whatever
Always be alert when one disappears on either end of the spectrum. And of course, you could break most of these into their own groups with their own different sets of conditions.
People always start at the top down unless they're short on money (or it's "better" to buy quantity like when spot tanks and physical takes a jump, but that's sorta not really working very much anymore).
Dollars stopped being the most popular dude a few months ago then eagles, and those started to get hard to afford which lifted up generics, and it's worked it's way down 90% and 90% is having the lowest hanging fruit trimmed, and the best fruit is becoming more unobtainable.
The cull stuff, gross stuff and modern stuff in 90% generally paint better pictures of what's going on. But if anything just pay attention to both ends of the spectrum.
40% disappearing is a day I see coming soon. I forgot about it for awhile and checked today.. eye opening what BU war nickels and 40% JFK now go for.
The hard part is none of it is predictable and can always go the opposite way. But, amazing how much even a little inkling helps.
You can also tell when one denomination is getting more popular when the key date rolls disappear. There's a lot of things that just do the same stuff over and over.
Like when eagles are $20 but Apmex is buying at $25; buy them all or be prepared for $20 ones to disappear. That sort of thing.
Highest price and ending soonest tell me a lot more than anything else. Text and email alerts can be crucial in some categories.
I'm sorry if this doesn't make sense it is what works for me. I just wish I could explain it better.
I know how to search silver on ebay, but I hadn't considered using ebay searches as an indicator of the retail market, although I suspect that it is a pretty good indicator of retail demand when a better source isn't available.
What's interesting to think about is whether or not the silver market will transition from being controlled via bogus paper derivative market manipulations to being an actual vibrant retail market based on actual supply & demand. It may in fact be advisable to start tracking the ebay retail market(s) and comparing the ebay data to the Comex numbers on a semi-regular basis.
Things do change.
I knew it would happen.
BU war nickels?
The best version of the worst regarded silver is no place to put money
40% disappearing is a day I see coming soon. I forgot about it for awhile and checked today.. eye opening what BU war nickels and 40% JFK now go for.
Same phenomenon happened around 1968. The justification was that the face value of 40% silver established a floor under the 40% coins, and as the price of silver rose it would be a win-win. Maybe so, but much less effective as a way to hedge against a rising silver price. Too bulky, requires further refining, etc.
I knew it would happen.
would you stop with the refining .
i'm never gonna buy the story of melting 40% halfs to do what exactly? There is no shortage of silver to make the next 20 million wretched ASE's that would require melting
i'm never gonna buy the story of melting 40% halfs to do what exactly? There is no shortage of silver to make the next 20 million wretched ASE's that would require melting
That was the rationale I remember being put forward. I didn't say that it was a great investment ploy.
Now, ASEs - that's not such a bad investment vehicle, in my humble opinion.
I knew it would happen.
melting 40% halfs in bulk to generate .999 to make ase's is stupidity. If you already own 40% the idea of converting to ASE's is also stupid .
The transaction costs , i.e. getting less than spot for the 40% for the opportunity to pay over spot for ugly 1 oz rounds is a sign of brain damage.
I'm sure people do melt coin silver if you have beat up foreign scrap for instance then melting it is probably smart.
As far as gold goes , obviously all jewelry must be melted , because jewelry is all garbage to begin with right? People who initially buy jewelry are stupid right? They need to be taught a lesson one way or another.
That would be my favorite part of owning a we buy gold place , smashing stones out of rings and whatnot in front of the people that bring it in. As if to say . " Hey Dummy, you paid 20 times melt value for a lump of trash with a pebble glued to it! "
And I suppose beat up gold coin could be melted too but there is nothing inherently desirable about modern mint garbage that anyone really needs to melt old stuff.
Coin gold and coin silver is already certified in weight and purity so why convert it at all? Its a fools errand . Sure some things are in favor or out of favor but there is a lot of rotation with that. Buy smart and wait for the market to come to you.
Rule #1 don't go out of your way to buy stuff that sucks
Rule #2 the storage argument is crap , If you live on the ground floor you could put a million dollars worth of silver in your closet
Rule # 3 goto rule#1
If you live on the ground floor you could put a million dollars worth of silver in your closet
68 Monster Boxes, a little over a ton. Yes, I suppose it's do-able if you stack'em high enough,
I knew it would happen.
storage is a red herring , a million in 40% halfs is no big deal either.
Remember the wheat pennie guy from the US coin forum? I'm confident nobody here would turn their nose up at rubbermaid barrels full of 40% halfs
ummmmm 68 ? you mean 84 ,monster boxes we don't count premiums
we don't count premiums
Admittedly, I used Apmex's price but wait a minute - if you can find me a Green Monster Box of Silver Eagles, any year - for sale with zero premium, I'm definitely interested.
I knew it would happen.
you can't stack premiums , we get it will take less room that way but unless you can give me the spot price of a perfect vacuum it doesn't work
and I will be filling my larger closet with bags of 90% , I have never owned a monster box and never will
Still a big Silver fan over the past 30 years. Watching the ups and downs. Even having a little silver makes one sleep better at night. IMHO
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