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Mexico Cap and Rays back in high demand

On Sunday, Heritage had a special Mexico Cap and Ray auction with 270+ lots. Every lot exceeded the high end estimate from HA. Live bidding was heavy and very few online bids survived. The auction featured a handful of high price rarities in the $5K and up range with the bulk being nice eye appealing collector grade coins. Common MS 64 grades ranged between $500 - $900. Common MS 63 grades averaged ranged between $300 - $700.

It will be interesting to see if the momentum continues and the high prices draw out other collections or the series moves into strongly held collections to be stored away for long term.

Unfortunately from my point of view, the high demand resulted in most of my strong bids getting easily taken out. I was able to win one of the lower end lots at a reasonable price.

Comments

  • BoosibriBoosibri Posts: 11,841 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It is a great series with loads of coin to collect. Gems are under appreciated in my view still and while I wouldn’t pay a premium for generic 63’s and 64’s, better dates and real 65-66’s I think have room to continue to appreciate.

  • coinkatcoinkat Posts: 22,721 ✭✭✭✭✭

    There are different collecting strategies that can be contemplated and followed. I see quality in the 63-64 range that potentially will lead to a two tiered market. At some point, it will be about the coin and there may be some revisionist thought as to what dates that currently are perceived common dates may not be as quality enters the equation.... Especially as more 8R coins are graded over time. I tend to agree that the 65 and higher grades have upside given the surviving population.

    Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.

  • AbueloAbuelo Posts: 1,759 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I think for <64 either rarity or incredible eye appeal are very relevant, otherwise they are rather generic and nobody should pay much of a premium for those coins. 65 and above likely will be well looked by collectors.

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,834 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2, 2020 6:04AM

    @dizzlecc said:
    On Sunday, Heritage had a special Mexico Cap and Ray auction with 270+ lots. Every lot exceeded the high end estimate from HA. Live bidding was heavy and very few online bids survived. The auction featured a handful of high price rarities in the $5K and up range with the bulk being nice eye appealing collector grade coins. Common MS 64 grades ranged between $500 - $900. Common MS 63 grades averaged ranged between $300 - $700.

    It will be interesting to see if the momentum continues and the high prices draw out other collections or the series moves into strongly held collections to be stored away for long term.

    Unfortunately from my point of view, the high demand resulted in most of my strong bids getting easily taken out. I was able to win one of the lower end lots at a reasonable price.

    There are dates/mints/varieties where the highest
    graded coin might be a 62....how do you value that?

    Also I noticed in DP that coins they call common some of the best specimans might be graded are 64.

    I got caught up in the euphoria of the bidding for some dates and mints. my sense was there was international and domestic participation based on the strong bidding........I paid in some cases double what the same coin had sold for the previous last 3-5 years. Oh well.

    LIke this one: Top pop at PCGS ...4 graded higher ( 65) at NGC

    Hobby for me!

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • dizzleccdizzlecc Posts: 1,111 ✭✭✭

    Nice 1880, good win. I did have a preliminary bid but ultimately not competitive. The series has gotten to the point where for some date/mints you can start looking at the grade populations to support setting pricing expectations. Like the 1880, not many graded higher and then you add in some better eye appeal and you can expect higher prices.

    The series covers 1823 to 1897, so yes there are some dates and mints where finding any example graded is a win. Dunigan's book is the best reference but it is dated and some of the condition descriptions have to be taken in context with current population reports.

    Agree with the other comments that 65-66s will remain scarce and respected. Currently, 65 and above represent around 5% of the total graded population.

  • YorkshiremanYorkshireman Posts: 4,493 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2, 2020 11:27AM

    @Abuelo said:
    I think for <64 either rarity or incredible eye appeal are very relevant, otherwise they are rather generic and nobody should pay much of a premium for those coins. 65 and above likely will be well looked by collectors.

    That is great to hear as I have one of the four 66+’s in the whole series.

    Yorkshireman,Obsessed collector of round, metallic pieces of history.Hunting for Latin American colonial portraits plus cool US & British coins.
  • ncsuwolf74ncsuwolf74 Posts: 113 ✭✭✭

    Most of my collection has been sold. Just over a half to private collectors in the states and all the others to Hong Kong. I don't think I lost money with a single coin and that's with the juice. Just this morning I had an offer on every coin I've ever purchased off of Heritage that was a cap and rays. I only have a handful of coins left. I'll be back and the hunt is fun. Enjoy reading you guys but wall street is better for me and my family right now. Thanks guys, you all keep on keeping on.

    "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose."

    Jim Elliot

  • ncsuwolf74ncsuwolf74 Posts: 113 ✭✭✭

    There are dates/mints/varieties where the highest
    graded coin might be a 62....how do you value that?

    Also I noticed in DP that coins they call common some of the best specimans might be graded are 64.

    Hey Dan, I think you are noticing why I collected the way I did now. Maybe one day I can play with the big boys but I was collecting on a budget. I praise the Good Lord I was able to build such a collection with many of my coins choice grade at best. I even met a few good friends along my journey :)

    "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose."

    Jim Elliot

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,834 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ncsuwolf74 said:

    There are dates/mints/varieties where the highest
    graded coin might be a 62....how do you value that?

    Also I noticed in DP that coins they call common some of the best specimans might be graded are 64.

    Hey Dan, I think you are noticing why I collected the way I did now. Maybe one day I can play with the big boys but I was collecting on a budget. I praise the Good Lord I was able to build such a collection with many of my coins choice grade at best. I even met a few good friends along my journey :)

    You are very bright and a gentleman ....thanks for all yourr great ideas ...coins and otherwise!

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • BoosibriBoosibri Posts: 11,841 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I recently sold this denomination set




  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It's a series with a relatively strong preference but price wise, it is relatively expensive given it's relative availability. It's concurrently a very large series where many of the coins are hard to buy which discourages most collectors who would otherwise be interested from even attempting it. This is true for most 19th century Latin series.

  • BoosibriBoosibri Posts: 11,841 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @WCC said:
    It's a series with a relatively strong preference but price wise, it is relatively expensive given it's relative availability. It's concurrently a very large series where many of the coins are hard to buy which discourages most collectors who would otherwise be interested from even attempting it. This is true for most 19th century Latin series.

    I agree if you are focus on traditional set building. I think it is ripe for type collecting and branch mint sets (eg. One Mo, one Ca, one EoMo) which all supports high end type pieces having upside to move along with the support for rare dates for more traditional collecting. I think semi-keys are hard to pay premiums for.

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Boosibri said:

    @WCC said:
    It's a series with a relatively strong preference but price wise, it is relatively expensive given it's relative availability. It's concurrently a very large series where many of the coins are hard to buy which discourages most collectors who would otherwise be interested from even attempting it. This is true for most 19th century Latin series.

    I agree if you are focus on traditional set building. I think it is ripe for type collecting and branch mint sets (eg. One Mo, one Ca, one EoMo) which all supports high end type pieces having upside to move along with the support for rare dates for more traditional collecting. I think semi-keys are hard to pay premiums for.

    I haven't seen any mintage data for any Cap & Ray denomination. My assumption is that the scarcity is mostly due to the large number of mints during this period. This is the best explanation I can come up with where one of these coins is (a lot) scarcer than many of the colonial predecessors where there is only the Mo mintmark.

    I try to buy higher quality coins but will settle for less if it's decent but otherwise not available. The problem (financially) with this design (all denominations) is that most of the coins don't look very nice (a charitable description IMO) yet some of the prices are very high, even for low or average circulated grades. Obviously cleaned or even if not, didn't wear well which appears to be the case for South African Union coinage, though the latter has a 80% and 50% silver composition.

    Also in some instances, thousands of dollars for coins that are possibly more common than many of the Peru and Guatemala pillar denominations yet selling for huge multiples. I would avoid this coinage, as I think the current owner may have difficulty getting a good price for it later.

    Type collecting (by denomination if that's what you mean) is the most realistic option to circumvent the supply constraints and yes, this would support higher prices for the better TPG equivalent grades. That's what I have told South African collectors for the Union series. The difference though is that, since US collectors seem to be the majority buyers, they actually collect this way while my observations or inferences indicate that it's practiced minimally or not all elsewhere.

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,834 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bidask said:
    https://coinweek.com/dealers-companies/stacks-bowers-dealers/the-british-trade-dollar-a-turn-of-the-century-staple-of-commerce-in-east-asia/

    Makes sense that the Chinese would want to collect these big crown size mexican 8 reales .

    Yes, due to the limited cultural connection. The TPG population data also indicates that China is also one of the few countries with a demonstrated preference for TPG plastic, probably much of it due to them being familiar with their own large scale counterfeiting.

  • BoosibriBoosibri Posts: 11,841 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @WCC said:

    @bidask said:
    https://coinweek.com/dealers-companies/stacks-bowers-dealers/the-british-trade-dollar-a-turn-of-the-century-staple-of-commerce-in-east-asia/

    Makes sense that the Chinese would want to collect these big crown size mexican 8 reales .

    Yes, due to the limited cultural connection. The TPG population data also indicates that China is also one of the few countries with a demonstrated preference for TPG plastic, probably much of it due to them being familiar with their own large scale counterfeiting.

    And a desire for all things premium

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,892 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm not an expert on these coins but I've seen and handled enough of them to have a not-so-qualified opinion. FWIW, I that many of the more common dates will prove much more common than most collectors would expect, and that many of the scarcer dates will prove surprisingly difficult when collected with a 21st-century eye for quality. Bottom line is that I think it's a great area to collect, but it will only pay off financially if you buy really special coins.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,834 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Mr Eureka many common dates in gem condition are getting a boost now if you look at the past couple of auctions at Stack’s and Heritage .

    Yes scarcer dates as well .

    What is a 21st eye toward quality ?
    Clyde Hubbard definitely had one of those in collecting this series .... he had such great raw coins !

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • pruebaspruebas Posts: 4,302 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 10, 2020 9:21PM

    @bidask said:
    What is a 21st eye toward quality ?
    Clyde Hubbard definitely had one of those in collecting this series .... he had such great raw coins !

    Many of the 8R coins you are seeing now on the market were repatriated from Asia by the bagful in the late 1970s - 1980s. And many more were melted during that same period. With all due respect to Mr. Hubbard, most of the 8Rs available to collectors during his time as a collector were nice. There wasn't enough demand to save the ugly ones.

    As an aside, there are probably multi millions of 8Rs still in Chinese vaults. And I bet they will not see the light of day during my lifetime.

  • coinkatcoinkat Posts: 22,721 ✭✭✭✭✭

    A 21st century eye for quality l suspect relates to afew concepts that are difficult to explain especially for a series that has a comprehensive history spanding nearly three quarters of a century. The series in general experienced limitations in terms of just producing a quality product... Many 8Rs were weakly and/or flatly struck... Suffered from inadequate die prep and other production related challenges that may not capture the interest of the "modern" eye one may (and should encounter) with other coins. The expectations for are high... And the appreciation for how these coins were produced simply does not resonate with some collectors. And I see that as their loss which really translates into an unwillingness to learn how coinage has evolved throughout the World over time. The Readers' Digest condensed version simply stated is that there are those that use the yardstick of today to measure the past and simply are unable to develop a connection to what does not meet expectations. And that is unfortunate.

    The 21st century eye also impacts how these coins should be graded. Without a reasonable understanding of the variations in production quality from the different mints, it becomes problematic to appreciate quality or establish reasonable expectations as to what even constitutes quality.

    In a nutshell, this is a series with enormous potential... I suppose in part it may depend on what is learned over time as to the quality and state of preservation of surviving population of 8Rs from the various mints.

    Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.

  • AbueloAbuelo Posts: 1,759 ✭✭✭✭✭

    AS a collector of Mexican coinage, I have to confess that, out of my Hooknecks, I own not a single C&R 8 reales. To me, it is an impossible series, poorly understood by collectors, and very interesting historically given that Mexican history from the early 1800s until well into the 1880s was a huge mess. And the mess is, I think, reflected in the coinage. Over 90% of the C&R 8 reales I have seen are flat horrible, either cleaned, or damaged. To have a nice 8 reales collection I think you need lots of luck, lots of patience, and lots of cash (unless you load yourself with coins that are ugly and financially unrewarding when the time comes) and I have none of that. It is possible that at some time I will venture into the field, but looking for very specific coins and not looking to complete a mint (or the series!). That said, nice C&R are really, really cool coins.

  • cecropiamothcecropiamoth Posts: 959 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pruebas @coinkat @Abuelo @bidask

    The notion of 21st century eye for quality - short question...

    Within this series, many of the issues -- think of certain Oaxaca coins for example -- were produced somewhat crude and not up to the standards of what was being produced say at Mexico City at the same time.

    Suppose you have a coin, essentially as struck outside of attractive toning it has picked up over 120+ years.

    This 21st century eye for quality - could this explain why one grading service recognizes the coin as being as struck and might assign a grade of MS65 while that same coin will not cross at grade at another TPG?

    Just a question I've had...and this seemed like a good spot to drop it in.

    Jeff

  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,892 ✭✭✭✭✭

    My comment about a "21st Century Eye" meant simply using TPG (or perhaps more accurately, CAC) standards, as opposed to what might have worked in the marketplace before the TPGs.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • coinkatcoinkat Posts: 22,721 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Interesting thoughts and commentary... Just afew remarks in connection with what has been said...

    Considering WWII and the Chinese Revolution, I really wonder how many 8Rs survived. Seems if there were millions, some of those millions would have been melted over time. China suffered immensely in the 1930s and 1940s. So we may never be in a position to quantify the remaining population in China.

    I would agree with just about everything you wrote Abuelo...and I would add that I doubt that the role of 8Rs will ever be fully appreciated in connection with western expansion. Perhaps someday there will be a new wave of interest based on the widespread use of 8Rs which were accepted as legal tender until the 1856/1857 time frame.

    As for TPG and crossing, there are several things that could be factors. I suspect there is still a learning curve given the total number graded between NGC and PCGS as a percentage of the total surviving population. As more are graded, the striking characteristics as well as lustre and how those qualities vary between the mints and over the time of production will be further noted which should play a role in setting a standard for quality.

    Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,834 ✭✭✭✭✭

    “> As an aside, there are probably multi millions of 8Rs still in Chinese vaults. And I bet they will not see the light of day during my lifetime.“

    “ multi millions of 8 Reales in Chinese vaults ....???

    If true I then why are Chinese collectors of this series bidding these up again ?

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • pruebaspruebas Posts: 4,302 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bidask said:

    “> As an aside, there are probably multi millions of 8Rs still in Chinese vaults. And I bet they will not see the light of day during my lifetime.“

    “ multi millions of 8 Reales in Chinese vaults ....???

    If true I then why are Chinese collectors of this series bidding these up again ?

    First of all, it has yet to be proven that the Chinese are bidding up Resplandores.

    But more importantly, those pieces in Chinese vaults are not in collector's vaults,
    but vaults of governments and possibly businesses or trading houses.

    Where do you think all that silver that went to China over centuries ended up?

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,834 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pruebas said:

    @bidask said:

    “> As an aside, there are probably multi millions of 8Rs still in Chinese vaults. And I bet they will not see the light of day during my lifetime.“

    “ multi millions of 8 Reales in Chinese vaults ....???

    If true I then why are Chinese collectors of this series bidding these up again ?

    First of all, it has yet to be proven that the Chinese are bidding up Resplandores.

    But more importantly, those pieces in Chinese vaults are not in collector's vaults,
    but vaults of governments and possibly businesses or trading houses.

    Where do you think all that silver that went to China over centuries ended up?

    I was able to prove ( to myself ) from confidential sources ...... but the prices being brought now at auction should tell you something !😊

    Where is the proof that multi millions of 8 reales sit in vaults or trading houses or businesses ( what kind of business ) 🤭

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coinkat said:

    In a nutshell, this is a series with enormous potential... I suppose in part it may depend on what is learned over time as to the quality and state of preservation of surviving population of 8Rs from the various mints.

    What is your definition of "enormous potential"?

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cecropiamoth said:
    @pruebas @coinkat @Abuelo @bidask

    The notion of 21st century eye for quality - short question...

    Within this series, many of the issues -- think of certain Oaxaca coins for example -- were produced somewhat crude and not up to the standards of what was being produced say at Mexico City at the same time.

    It isn't just the quality of the coin as issued but how it was subsequently preserved. Compare the surviving quality of practically any "earlier" US coin to those from contemporary Latin series.

    When I have checked Coin Facts, invariably practically every US coin exists in (noticeable) multiple in very high grades or quality, even for the scarcest. With these Latin series, the survival and quality distribution isn't nearly as well known but from the publicly available information, the typical number seems to be at or near zero, not just for a particular date but the entire series.

    As one example, the 1796 quarter almost certainly has more high quality survivors than all 42 2R dates from Guatemala, Bolivia and Peru combined. It's even more lopsided excluding the handful of Peru dates (1758, 1761 and 1771) where most are recorded. There are presumably more out there somewhere (anywhere) in "old time" collections I don't know (such as from Europe mentioned on this forum) and institutional collections (ANS being one) but it cannot be many.

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MrEureka said:
    I'm not an expert on these coins but I've seen and handled enough of them to have a not-so-qualified opinion. FWIW, I that many of the more common dates will prove much more common than most collectors would expect, and that many of the scarcer dates will prove surprisingly difficult when collected with a 21st-century eye for quality. Bottom line is that I think it's a great area to collect, but it will only pay off financially if you buy really special coins.

    I believe the survival rate to be very low but for most, the total number higher or much higher than evident now, more so for the later dates than earlier ones. The only one I own now (PCGS MS-64) is the 1894 Mo. Contrary to an earlier post of mine, I have seen mintage data for at least some of these coins and I believe it was 10MM for this one. The population counts are currently low for this one (higher than most others) but almost certainly a large multiple given the mintage and geographic distribution where collectors outside of Mexico could and probably did save it. It's not going to be hundreds of thousands like Morgan dollars but could still be hundreds or in the thousands for a noticeable proportion.

  • coinkatcoinkat Posts: 22,721 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @WCC

    In reading your last post, you seem to be doing an admirable job in outlining basic issues in terms of surviving population as well as condition rarity. Overtime Central and South American coinage will attract greater interest for various reasons including the value of condition rarity.

    You asked how I define enormous potential... I don't think I can provide a short and concise answer. However, if you look at the money chasing US coins and money chasing World coins, there seems to be greater opportunities with World coins.

    Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.

  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,834 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @WCC said:

    @coinkat said:

    In a nutshell, this is a series with enormous potential... I suppose in part it may depend on what is learned over time as to the quality and state of preservation of surviving population of 8Rs from the various mints.

    What is your definition of "enormous potential"?

    I would rather buy ( if I can find them ) multiple Latin America coins that are both scarce and condition census than one high quality 1796 US quarter for the same money 😄

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coinkat said:
    @WCC

    In reading your last post, you seem to be doing an admirable job in outlining basic issues in terms of surviving population as well as condition rarity. Overtime Central and South American coinage will attract greater interest for various reasons including the value of condition rarity.

    You asked how I define enormous potential... I don't think I can provide a short and concise answer. However, if you look at the money chasing US coins and money chasing World coins, there seems to be greater opportunities with World coins.

    I agree the value proposition is much better, but more as a collectible than financially which is how I look at it first.

    The problem with substantially larger flow of funds into most world coinage is ironically, the outsized difference in scarcity. Scarcity is a positive financially but to a point only. It becomes an obstacle at the point where collectors cannot buy what they want because it isn't available.

    From the quality aspect, also where the best examples don't exist in comparable TPG grades, as that's how coins are priced now. Most of these coins exist in MS-64 or lower, even for condition census coins. (This is also often true in South Africa, a market where the populations are a lot more reflective of actual supply.) US collectors don't pay the highest prices for coins in this grade, except where the coin has something else going for it which I'd say these coins do not.

    It's no different for the vast majority of the pillar coinage I collect. I never chose this series because I wanted to profit from it. However, like anyone else I would prefer to sell it for more than less. I don't believe it's going to worth substantially more in the foreseeable future for a variety of reasons, including this one.

    Think of it another way. Anyone here can choose a series or even an entire market and in most, collectors would be hard pressed finding enough coins in high or top quality to buy for any meaningful amount. For Mexico, I'm not sure even $1MM could be spent in an entire year (excluding bullion type coins) without noticeably inflating the price level through their own buying. For an individual series like this one or pillars, far less. There is and cannot be any scale due to the scarcity.

    There are a low number of exceptions for the most prominent coins but almost certainly not just because it's in elite quality or the condition census grade.

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,349 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bidask said:

    @WCC said:

    @coinkat said:

    In a nutshell, this is a series with enormous potential... I suppose in part it may depend on what is learned over time as to the quality and state of preservation of surviving population of 8Rs from the various mints.

    What is your definition of "enormous potential"?

    I would rather buy ( if I can find them ) multiple Latin America coins that are both scarce and condition census than one high quality 1796 US quarter for the same money 😄

    Me too, but we are in the minority.

    An AG-3 1796 quarter sells for something like $6,000. I bought a 1769 Peru 1R that I grade VG-8 for $43. It's about as nice a coin as I have seen for any Spanish colonial with this wear. I'd settle for similar quality to complete the series if it were available but it isn't. If either exist, a mid-AU might be worth somewhat more than $500 and an MS-63 $1500-$2000. I'd gladly pay either price if anyone has one and will sell it to me. Maybe somewhat more.

    This is another difference versus US coinage. The collector of US may not be able to afford the better quality but at least the lower quality coins they can buy will at least occasionally look nice, as in not damaged and not "processed". With Cap & Ray or colonials, equivalent wear coins usually look terrible.

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