Prospecting
Moonman
Posts: 277 ✭✭✭
I am not usually one to speculate on how good someone will be at the next level, mostly because I am not good at it. I have gone all in on a few players over the years only to then put them all in a yard sale box. I have even tried to do some research on a few players that were " sure things" but as we all know there is no "sure thing" . Can anybody really say that when Tom Brady was drafted in the 7th round they thought he's the one to rewrite the record books?? So my question is, Have you been successful in this practice and I would also like to know who you think will have a HOF career in say 15 years or so. Mostly I want to keep a record of it so I can see peoples predictions, and if they were right. Baseball and Football are my focus but any sport is welcome
Comments
I invested very heavily into Lionel Messi items early on before most in the USA had figured that one out, and it has proven to be a wise choice
Right now I have a pretty hefty investment in NY Yankees prospect Jasson Dominguez...been buying the Bowman Chrome Refractors. I am now saving up to buy the Gold (#'d to 50) and Orange (#'d to 25). I will be in tears and my wife will probably rip me a new one if he ends up in the yard sale pile.
I'm tellin' ya if Kevin Maas ever becomes President of the United States, discovers a cure for all disease, or is the first man to walk on mars...i'm sitting on a small fortune with his rookie cards.
I like him too, but I remember Todd Van poppel, and that makes me pause
Greg Jefferies
ok we have all failed at this it seems, but who is the next great????
hahahah @1959 that was going to be my "bad" example too. I was a kid but had probably 200 Greg Jeffries cards, and had never even seen him play. So, here is the advice I'd have regarding this subject. NEVER EVER buy into somebody elses hype. Always watch the guy play a lot before putting your hard earned money on them. Nothing is worse than hearing some "expert" or some card guy say this guy is the next Mickey Mantle, and buying in on him, only to waste your money. At a minimum if you watch them play and come away very impressed, you only have yourself to blame if they don't pan out.
As for prospects, I never really shell out big money for young guys who haven't done it at the highest level. My strategy is to accumulate guys who I think are under rated, or under the radar throughout their career. I am mainly a baseball collector and only interested in guys who I think will be in the hall of fame one day and their cards will be worth more when they retire then they are now. I love buying up guys who I've watched and I'm impressed with when they are having a "down year", and their cards drop in value. It gives me a lot of confidence in future buys when those guys turn it around. Prime example was Mookie Betts last year around June/July. He wasn't having his best year but I think hes a top 5 talent in the league so I bought a lot of his cards then and doing the same now for Arenado.
Anyway, here is my list of future hall of famers that I think are under /valued at the moment.
Nolan Arenado
Miggy
Clayton Kershaw
younger guys whom I think will be HOFers some day that I've been accumulating.
Juan Soto
Gerrit Cole
Shane Bieber
Trevor Story
I also think its worth considering what city someone plays in, like if they are a Yankee and you REALLY like them, thats a no brainer. Or as for Arenado as long as he remains in Colorado he likely goes down as the best player to ever wear a Rockies uniform. It still blows my mind that people pay thousands of dollars for red refractors of a minor league prospect. I've said it in other posts, I can't stomach that level of gambling but I'm sure it pays off handsomely for some. This is all JMO, and to each their own. I also will say I usually buy players whom I actually like to watch. I don't do it all for investing, Arenado/Soto/Bieber are the guys I really like to watch now. So, I find myself continually buying their cards.
Jeff
Collecting:
post world war II HOF rookie
76 topps gem mint 10 commons 9 stars
Arenado purple refractors(Rockies) Red (Cardinals)
successful deals with Keevan, Grote15, 1954, mbogoman
Wait til people see the prices when the initial Young Guns card is issued for Alexis Lafreniere. They will probably be going for McDavid prices in the first month and then settle down to a noticeable tier less afterwards.
Try to get some Joe Burrow cards when they come out.
By cards I mean panini prizm base cards. NFL not collegiate. No need to stray from this basic card.
Trouble is they will probably be pretty expensive right from the start.
2020 panini prizm boxes would be a good substitute.
Hobby boxes(not FOTL), or cello (12 packs, 15 cards per pack) are the best.
Mahomes prizm base cards were $20-30 raw even after his first few starts of his MVP season.
Now they sell for $7K+ in psa 10, 2K in psa 9.
Luckily he was under the radar as a rookie so there was time to load up but with Burrow
his cards will start out pretty high.
In football, I'm keeping an eye on Chase Young and CeeDee Lamb. At Ohio State Chase Young was an absolute beast, and a nightmare for the offense to deal with. At Oklahoma CeeDee Lamb was a dangerous weapon on offense, tall and able to go up and get the ball. If both players can stay healthy, I think they are going to excel in the NFL. We'll have to wait and see, but I predict big things for those two guys.
This is the main reason Dominguez scares me. Has anyone seen him play yet? Why should I buy his cards right now? I agree with collecting players that I can watch and am impressed by. Also if they seem like good guys off the field, I think that is an added bonus.
prospecting in baseball should never be long term. There might be 5 superstars per decade in that sport. Most prospectors are just waiting for the prospect to have his first big game and see a huge surge in their "stock price" and then unload because the odds are stacked so far against any baseball prospects achieving superstar levels.
@jeffv96masters
Larry Walker is disappointed in this comment as is Todd Helton.
Or as for Arenado as long as he remains in Colorado he likely goes down as the best player to ever wear a Rockies uniform.
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The "old" saying used to be never invest in pitchers, catchers, 2B, or SS. Also, you never know how really , really , big money will effect the willingness of the young super-stars to play at their highest level for a long career. It was easy to buy 100 Greg Jefferies at 50 cents a card, but 1,000 dollars for Soto, Wander, Tatis, etc.??? Be careful or rich.
@1951WheatiesPremium both great players and I said “arenado will likely” but I stand by the statement. His career trajectory is far outpacing either of those players. Just a matter if he does it as long as them and in a Rockies uniform. He’s on pace for 1500+ rbi 500+ homeruns and 15 gold gloves. He could be the pace setter for those stats as a 3B when he finishes.
Collecting:
post world war II HOF rookie
76 topps gem mint 10 commons 9 stars
Arenado purple refractors(Rockies) Red (Cardinals)
successful deals with Keevan, Grote15, 1954, mbogoman
76collector- the knock on Arenado has always been his home and away splits.
Numbers are much better at Colorado. Something like .315 avg. at home, .263 away.
OPS .990 at home, .795 away. To be great I think you have to be able to perform on the road.
I'm not a Schmidt fan, but to me Arenado isn't nearly as good as Schmidt was.
If his splits were just a little closer it wouldn't be a big deal, but look at his OPS + numbers.
All his great stats and 130 is about the best he can do. Not bad but certainly not the mark of a great player.
I don't think Arenado wants to go anywhere. He knows if he plays somewhere else his numbers will suck.
If it weren't for rendon, arenado would be the best 3rd baseman in the league. if trout could get on base, rendon's numbers would be even more mesmerizing. 14 game hitting streak, player of the month already. and he just got there. and while it's not prospecting, a lot of these folks sitting on HIGH DOLLAR trout cards are recognizing just how good this rendon fellow is. still not too late to snag some of his key rc stuff cheap.
Does anyone even consider fielding as part of the game any more ? Rendon better than Arenado ? I agree somewhat with you @Darin regarding the home/away split. But Arenado is a generational defender. Like Omar Vizquel at 3B. He’s won 3 consecutive platinum gloves. Not gold. That’s the leagues best defender. Pretty impressive what him and Chapman can do with their gloves. Obviously don’t mean any offense to anyone. It’s all just our opinions. Mike Schmidt was awesome btw as was Chipper.
Collecting:
post world war II HOF rookie
76 topps gem mint 10 commons 9 stars
Arenado purple refractors(Rockies) Red (Cardinals)
successful deals with Keevan, Grote15, 1954, mbogoman
I think any pitcher (former one here) finds the value of a great fielding Third Baseman or Shortstop just as important as their hitting. You can easily go from a 4.00 ERA to a 3.00 ERA if you are a ground ball pitcher with a great left side of the field.
Martian
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Now batting for Brian Taylor..........Jasson Dominguez
It’s also been noted that playing in Denver for their home games also makes hitting on the road a bit tougher. People said the same thing about DJ LeMahieu before he left and went to the Yanks. Even though it’s also a hitters park, I’m not hearing those same critics. Only difference is the ball movement moves very similar out of the hand of the pitcher wherever he plays. Not as hard to adjust to away ball parks. I am definitely not saying that Arenado is a .300 hitter but I think he is better than you think.
Obviously nobody can say with 100% certainty who is the "next superstar".
BUT if I knew, you want me to tell you so you can buy up all his low priced RC's instead of me?...........interesting.
It’s Brien.
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Situation makes such a big difference too and that is impossible to predict. Jeter isn’t jeter anywhere else. Jeter isn’t even Jeter with the 80s Yanks vs the late 90s-2000s Yanks.
I’m a Heels fan so I’ll also throw out a player I am very familiar with. Antawn Jamison is a 20k scorer but unlikely to make the HOF. He played for franchises that were very bad at the time he was there (minus the short stint in Dallas). He’s a great #2 but never got to play with a number one in his prime. If he plays his career in James Worthy’s place he’s a sure fire HOFer (not a knock on Worthy, he was a beast).
Brien , right. How soon we forget. (or I forget). Is is he alive? I think is was killed last year, but could be wrong.
Not according to Wikipedia, but, then, Wikipedia doesn't have anything after his release from prion for cocaine trafficking in 2015.
I think this question goes along with prospecting considering we are talking ultra modern cards today. What is your sweet spot of investing in a rookie/prospect as far as refractors. I realize a lot is what you can afford. But do you shoot for a certain type of refractor ? And what premium do you pay based on the print run.
So let’s say /500 is your base. Will you pay 50% more for a /100. How much more for a /5. Throw out the superfractor since they aren’t often available. I have a /25 and a /50 of a rookie I like. I want to buy the red /5. But the seller wants 2x more than both the orange and atomic combined and I can’t get myself to pay that type of premium for an unknown product. Appreciate your input and the conversation.
Jeff
Collecting:
post world war II HOF rookie
76 topps gem mint 10 commons 9 stars
Arenado purple refractors(Rockies) Red (Cardinals)
successful deals with Keevan, Grote15, 1954, mbogoman
I only follow NL, so I’ll give you my list of current NL players who I project to the Hall and that I’ve purchased investment cards for at some point. Some are more seasoned than others.
-Max Scherzer
-Clayton Kershaw
-Jacob Degrom
-Yadi Molina
-Freddie Freeman
-Mookie Betts
-Ronald Acuna
-JT Realmuto
-Joey Votto
-Juan Soto
-Max Fried
I’ve taken Adam Wainwright and Buster Posey off my list.
Always buying Bobby Cox inserts. PM me.
@mcadams
Great list.
Bryce Harper?
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living in Michigan I was a Brady fan sense he got screwed by Loyd Carr and had to split his time with Drew Henson. I bought up both Henson and Brady RC’s.
My advice would be to invest in local guys you can follow.
Buy and hold
Spencer Torkelson is gonna be a stud
my biggest mistakes was being cheap, don’t be afraid to pay big if you believe. think down the road
NIce list mcadams.
I like Freddie Freeman as a player who seems to really fly under the radar.
He just puts up solid stats year after year. I think his best OPS numbers have
come the last 3 or 4 seasons so it seems like he's just getting better.
Well the Royals lost again to the White Sox and
Luis Robert, great prospect for the Sox, made a great catch in centerfield.
Don't know much about him but he has to be one of the top prospects in the AL.
Here's an interesting stat.
Fernando Tatis played 949 games and had a WAR of 6.3
Fernando Tatis jr. has played 125 games and has a WAR of 6.6
If I was investing in top prospects in baseball he would be Top 3 material for sure.
Some good advice in this thread, and I was always told first and foremost collect what you like - that way if it goes to zero you will still enjoy it. After that figure out what cards/players will increase the most in value if you are prospecting.
Back in the day people collected their favorite players and value helped in regards to trading a player of value to get more of your favorite player. Today people try to pick the best RC’s and prospects to increase in value whether it is Dominguez, Tatis, Luka, Zion, Trout, Acuna... When Acuna came out nobody had heard of him and you could have put together a nice haul on the cheap. When Zion came out that was not happening. You either acquire and try to hit the right player cheap and have them explode, buy unopened and hope you hit a lottery ticket and get a red, orange, or superfractor, or buy a high end prospect auto and hope it goes from $1k to $5-10k.
Hemsley Mullen or Todd what’s his name the next Nolan Ryan.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
I went in big time on Acuna last Year hoping he would go 40/40
Now I’m just hoping that gamble pays off and he continues to grow...I passed on a bunch of Tati’s in favor of acuna multiple times.
Van Poppel?
For me it was John Olerud dude!. If only he could have 2-wayed!
Well I talked myself into a Fernando Tatis Jr. topps psa 10 rookie card.
No doubt.. There never seemed to be an investment window for Harper as he was so hyped even in high school. I missed the window on Yelich too.
Always buying Bobby Cox inserts. PM me.
I'm in a couple of facebook B/S/T groups for more modern stuff. Robert is, by far, the most sought after of the 2020 RC class. I'm not sure if there ever was an investment window for him....he kind of came out of the gates hot.
Always buying Bobby Cox inserts. PM me.
Does it have to be a new young player?
I was going to go after a few Byron Buxton cards when the Twins drafted him 2nd overall. His best cards were thousands of dollars and he has been a bust so far with a lot of injuries.
Before that I tried Marty Cordova, David McCarty (3rd overall and a sure thing) and Chuck Knoblauch. Knoblauch looked good for a while but then lost his mind and his ability to throw the ball from 2nd to 1st.
Yes I am a Twins fan and thought it would be fun to collect someone from the local "9".
Why not go after overlooked guys that have had great careers, but haven't gotten into the HOF because of problems?
Palmiero is a good example. His 1987 Topps card is $35.00 in a PSA 10. 690 PSA 10's out of 5152 submitted. If you don't lie him, there are a few others.
If the steroid guys ever get in, he's a lock, and it sure beats investing big money into a guy who may never even make it to the bigs.
I'm certainly NOT an expert in prospecting..but I'll share another strategy that I've used. I like to buy raw from guys who bust cases of new Topps Chrome every year, and then try my hand at grading. While a lot of investors like the lower #'s like the red refractors (#'d to 5) and the orange refractors (#'d to 25), I prefer the outer refractors like the gold (#'d to 50) all the way up to purple (#'d to 250). The thought is that there is definitely still upside in the card from an investment standpoint, but you're also reaching a much broader audience longer-term due to the fact that they can be included in registry sets (50 print run and up).
Always buying Bobby Cox inserts. PM me.
Which one? The 2019 Topps Series 2?
Yep, that's the one.
He should have a decent chance at MVP this year depending on how
he finishes out the season. And the Padres being a pretty good team this
year for a change doesn't hurt either.
I had been thinking about getting his Rookie Debut card from the 2019 Topps Update, but the Series 2 seems to be the clearly more sought after (and valuable) card. In the end, it seems to be the better investment of the two.
Yup. His rookie cards are in the 5 figures today. 😂😂😂
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
We talking Acuna Sr.? Acuna Jr was a top 3 prospect for 2 years before he even made his mlb debut. He was expensive from the rip and THE chase card for pretty much all 2018 product sans a very brief Ohtani hype run for early Bowman release. Same goes for the 2017 1st B lines.
Heck, Acuna's Topps Living set card had nearly 50k ordered. That speaks volumes right there.
I honestly don't remember him ever being cheap and was the top dog both from purchase points and hobby popularity until very recently.
However guys like Bieber, Torres, Soroka, Soto, Albies & Meadows we're absolute steals. Some flew well under the radar in Acuna's shadow. Some still are. One of them isn't. 😉
Juan of them isn't.