The losses by HSBC, one of the world’s biggest bullion trading banks, are theoretical, reflecting the value of positions it held. They do not necessarily mean it lost money
Did you even bother to read the article you posted?
You are so fixated and consumed by this COMEX thing, which really means nothing. It is contrived assumption based on preconceived notions. How about focusing on what will increase demand for silver. Why would the average joe want to buy silver? What would cause him to realize or see value in silver?
@cohodk said: Only a very few entities own almost all of the short positions and these entities will dissolve if the price goes up too fast or too far
Cladking, this is not true. The major shorts are the mining companies that sell future production. They are locking in a price. If the price goes up, they can simply deliver or biy back the contracts and sell higher priced.
Its because good meaning folk like yourself dont understand how this works is why conspiracy and misinformation spreads so easily. As a former educator i would hope you pursue fact.
I don't know and don't know how to find out or verify the information available. Much of my belief in a manipulation comes from Ted Butler who has accused JP Morgan et al of this for decades. There seems little doubt these positions are taken by financial institutions but perhaps it is miners who own the risk. In any case I was already aware that some miners are so far short they would lose money if silver goes higher.
Whatever the actual case in this instance I keep coming back to the fact that gold is far more readily available in terms of stockpiles than is silver. I keep coming back to the fact that silver is spread so far and wide not so much because it is more common but only because it is so much cheaper. I expect a paradigm shift as people come to agree with me that silver is not just as good as gold and can fulfill every role of gold but is better than gold because it is more useful and this utility will probably continue to increase indefinitely.
@WCC said:
No one can prove that any manipulation has suppressed the price one cent. For every short in the futures market, someone is long. This paper trading can both increase and decrease prices, as increased short interest doesn't prove successful manipulation.
You said it yourself, "paper trading can both increase and decrease prices."
Department of Justice routinely enforces action against futures market "spoofing." Spoofing is an illegal strategy that involves placing trade orders with the intent to cancel them before they can be executed. The goal is to affect the price of the commodity and benefit a preexisting trading position.
And DOJ seems to be pretty good at proving price manipulation in futures markets:
No one can prove that most buyers of the "paper" silver actually want the physical metal.
Most paper traders, until recently, do not want the physical metal. They are simply hedging what they either produce or what they consume. Futures markets were initially established to provide constant, stable prices for wholesale producers and consumers of raw commodities. However, the futures markets have always offered the option of physical delivery.
Since the beginning of this year there has been much, much more interest (demand) in actual contract delivery from speculators. It has caught COMEX by surprise and their reaction has been to increase the variety of "good for delivery" bars it will accept at it's approved warehouses. If spot prices and physical delivery continue to rise, COMEX faces the possibility of not being able to honor contract delivery. Until recently many participants were willing to accept a cash settlement in lieu of "delivery," but recent COMEX physical holding reductions indicate that appears to have fallen out of favor with contract holders.
Yes, but this is different than the claims I have read or seen implied by those who claim it. None of those examples prove that prices were actually reduced because it's impossible to demonstrate. If it happened, it was only temporary and it's light years away from proving that silver should be worth huge premiums or multiples to the publicly traded price.
This increased interest is reflected in the buy-sell spread, including premiums to spot. From what I know, it's substantially due to production constraints such as the US Mint (not any supposed shortage of the metal) but I don't follow it closely since it doesn't interest me as it does you. I have seen it before (such as in 2013 when I had a debate with someone else another forum) but it's always been temporary.
The current spread is also an indication of reduced liquidity for the physical metal, all of them: gold, silver, platinum and palladium. Premiums are unprecedented and with silver, anyone who buys it has an immediate unrealized loss of about 15%. I have seen it with the Perth Mint for fabricated storage for years (which is why I would never buy from them) but not in the US.
The recent run-up reminds me of what happened beginning in October, 2008 when silver bottomed at $8:39. Then it was due to QE in anticipation of much higher price inflation which never materialized. Now it's due to QE and COVID. I don't have any idea who is taking physical delivery at exchanges but I can infer that it's people such as on this forum who are buying up NCLT and smaller bars.
To date, they have been able to do it because the credit bubble has kept credit cheap and available and the economy from crashing. They haven't lost their jobs, yet. Or if they have, still had income from the stimulus.
When the economy seriously contracts (not just in the aggregate statistics like now but living standards) which it will "eventually", I'm expecting many of these people to become forced sellers into a falling market. There will be plenty of supply then.
Comments
My gut feeling is that silver will go on another run when gold hits the 1830 to 1850 range.
The losses by HSBC, one of the world’s biggest bullion trading banks, are theoretical, reflecting the value of positions it held. They do not necessarily mean it lost money
Did you even bother to read the article you posted?
You are so fixated and consumed by this COMEX thing, which really means nothing. It is contrived assumption based on preconceived notions. How about focusing on what will increase demand for silver. Why would the average joe want to buy silver? What would cause him to realize or see value in silver?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I don't know and don't know how to find out or verify the information available. Much of my belief in a manipulation comes from Ted Butler who has accused JP Morgan et al of this for decades. There seems little doubt these positions are taken by financial institutions but perhaps it is miners who own the risk. In any case I was already aware that some miners are so far short they would lose money if silver goes higher.
Whatever the actual case in this instance I keep coming back to the fact that gold is far more readily available in terms of stockpiles than is silver. I keep coming back to the fact that silver is spread so far and wide not so much because it is more common but only because it is so much cheaper. I expect a paradigm shift as people come to agree with me that silver is not just as good as gold and can fulfill every role of gold but is better than gold because it is more useful and this utility will probably continue to increase indefinitely.
Yes, but this is different than the claims I have read or seen implied by those who claim it. None of those examples prove that prices were actually reduced because it's impossible to demonstrate. If it happened, it was only temporary and it's light years away from proving that silver should be worth huge premiums or multiples to the publicly traded price.
This increased interest is reflected in the buy-sell spread, including premiums to spot. From what I know, it's substantially due to production constraints such as the US Mint (not any supposed shortage of the metal) but I don't follow it closely since it doesn't interest me as it does you. I have seen it before (such as in 2013 when I had a debate with someone else another forum) but it's always been temporary.
The current spread is also an indication of reduced liquidity for the physical metal, all of them: gold, silver, platinum and palladium. Premiums are unprecedented and with silver, anyone who buys it has an immediate unrealized loss of about 15%. I have seen it with the Perth Mint for fabricated storage for years (which is why I would never buy from them) but not in the US.
The recent run-up reminds me of what happened beginning in October, 2008 when silver bottomed at $8:39. Then it was due to QE in anticipation of much higher price inflation which never materialized. Now it's due to QE and COVID. I don't have any idea who is taking physical delivery at exchanges but I can infer that it's people such as on this forum who are buying up NCLT and smaller bars.
To date, they have been able to do it because the credit bubble has kept credit cheap and available and the economy from crashing. They haven't lost their jobs, yet. Or if they have, still had income from the stimulus.
When the economy seriously contracts (not just in the aggregate statistics like now but living standards) which it will "eventually", I'm expecting many of these people to become forced sellers into a falling market. There will be plenty of supply then.