The "All 9+" Vintage Mainstream Set
FB
Posts: 1,684 ✭✭
Guys,
Over the last year or so, I've noticed a number of different thoughts on what people post in their sets. The unwritten categories that I see include:
1)Post any grade card in your set.
2)Post PSA 7 or better in your set.
3)Post PSA 8 or better in your set.
4)Only post PSA 9 or better in your set.
So far, we've seen that some of the smaller sets can definitely been done (and have) in all PSA 9 and 10. The two that come to mind are Merkel's 68 Topps 3D and Gemmint's 70 Kelloggs.
But, as for the PSA 9 and above mainstream sets, I think that the closest and probably the most likely to do it is the 68 Revere set. I believe that he's now in the 93% range.
How long do you think it will be before we see one of these sets finished? How long before we see any of the others finished not including the Revere? Do you think that its possible to finish them without a few 8's?
Over the last year or so, I've noticed a number of different thoughts on what people post in their sets. The unwritten categories that I see include:
1)Post any grade card in your set.
2)Post PSA 7 or better in your set.
3)Post PSA 8 or better in your set.
4)Only post PSA 9 or better in your set.
So far, we've seen that some of the smaller sets can definitely been done (and have) in all PSA 9 and 10. The two that come to mind are Merkel's 68 Topps 3D and Gemmint's 70 Kelloggs.
But, as for the PSA 9 and above mainstream sets, I think that the closest and probably the most likely to do it is the 68 Revere set. I believe that he's now in the 93% range.
How long do you think it will be before we see one of these sets finished? How long before we see any of the others finished not including the Revere? Do you think that its possible to finish them without a few 8's?
Frank Bakka
Sets - 1970, 1971 and 1972
Always looking for 1972 O-PEE-CHEE Baseball in PSA 9 or 10!
lynnfrank@earthlink.net
outerbankyank on eBay!
Sets - 1970, 1971 and 1972
Always looking for 1972 O-PEE-CHEE Baseball in PSA 9 or 10!
lynnfrank@earthlink.net
outerbankyank on eBay!
0
Comments
I do believe it to be possible yet costly. I would have to say that you'd need alot of friends. Being able to cruise the big card shows could make this possible.
On this note though, I'm finding it almost impossible to nail the 81's in all 9's let alone vintage. The project is being sent to PSA next week.
Could you imagine looking at 50,000 vintage yikes.
PS The answer to your question COSTLY
Matt
I agree with you about the '68 Revere set. I'm sure it's possible for other sets too, but it is difficult to imagine unless one knows of large hidden stashes of raw material yet to be graded.
<< <i>Hey I like being mentioned in the same sentence as Charles Merkel. >>
GEMMINT - It sure beats being in the same sentence with Charles Manson
Website: http://www.qualitycards.com
PS To see what I'm talking about, check out the SSPC pops in a few weeks on key cards...
If you get any Schmidt or other Phillies cards in PSA 10 -- please let me know. I have a few of the Schmidt in PSA 10 -- but would not mind putting together a full Phillies team set in PSA 9 or 10 -- and get any more Schmidts that are graded highly.
MS
Ian
Set builders face many obstacles to a Mint quality set including each sets run of "tough" cards. They face fierce competition from other high grade set builders, team set builders, team collectors, and mint grade collectors. And this is only a reference to already slabbed examples.
Scouring shows, local dealers, the web, and private estates will turn up fewer and fewer gems as time passes.
As Mint quality collections from older collectors find there way back into the market, less of these will actually remain intact as dealers break them up to sell singles or slab the keys.
Acquiring your own Mint examples for grading is brutal. as you well know. You are just as likely, or more so, to get returned a grade of PSA 8 as you are a Mint 9. This is what makes this quest so incredibly tough and admirable for those that have achieved and will achieve this GPA.
My opinion is that you will see only a handful of complete or near complete PSA 9+ graded regular issue sets in the near future.
It will take patience, persistence, and gobs of the green stuff to get there.
RayB69Topps
Also, Ray sort of touched on this but for an all-PSA9 set you need to have virtually all the cards in fairly significant pops in PSA9. A pop-1 card only works for you if you have the one. Otherwise, if it's truly tough it will go at a very high price - if it's even offered for sale. It's just as likely that the low-pop stuff is tucked away in private collections never to be offered for sale.
However, I think too it depends on what you consider "vintage". I think Ray is correct in that we'll only see a small handful of PSA9+ sets assembled - for the years 1972 and before. However, I definitely see sets 1974 and later as doable in PSA9. By no means easy or cheap, but attainable. For example, Carlos is 100% complete on his 74 set with a 8.22 GPA - and the last I knew I wasn't done upgrading. For 1975, Frank Smith is at almost 80% with a GPA of 8.52. There will be a couple 70s sets that will be very tough in 9 for a while - 1977 for example. But I think over time as more examples are graded, even these will even out.
Mike
I must have access to the rest of the SSPC's. I just sent 30 or so stars to PSA a few weeks ago.
I think the real question is why? Why is a set in 9’s important? What does that say about YOU? Are you a better collector? Is it that important to have 9’s over 8’s???
Good to see you on the board.
Bob C,
I'm betting that we'll see a few 8.5+ sets by the end of this year from 1959 through the early 70's. I'm betting that we see 10 different sets at 8.5 and above. The one that I don't understand is the folks that state "nothing but 9's will go in this set". Because, anything short of a Revere-like effort will never and I mean NEVER get it done.
I honestly believe that the only Vintage all 9+ set within the next 2 years will be the Revere 68. There are a number of others showing progress but no one is really much more than 25% at this point. So, other than Revere, the only way that the rest of us will reach 100% will be with 8's mixed in.
But, in the end - it'll all be fun to watch...
Sets - 1970, 1971 and 1972
Always looking for 1972 O-PEE-CHEE Baseball in PSA 9 or 10!
lynnfrank@earthlink.net
outerbankyank on eBay!
I will gladly take you on that friendly wager -- specifically in regard to a highest set rating of 9.10 and 9.15 (with exception noted toward Revere's 1968 set). Though I think that there are many high grade sets that will have tens, I believe that a number of the sets will have to strike a fine balance between the number of 8s and the number of 10s, even if the majority of the set grades out at PSA 9.
I truly believe that persons like you and some of the people in your circles of collecting have *multiple* high-grade raw sets out there, which I think fully supports the notion of 15-25 completely graded sets. However, I do think that it will be a Herculeanen effort to have these sets completely graded with an average grade of 9 by the end of 2003.
So please let me be the first to take you on on that friendly wager.
Honestly -- I think our hobby world will be a lot more fun and exciting if you win this bet....
Anyways though, I think Carlos if he wanted to upgrade his 1974 set is in a nice position to go above a 9 rating because, heck, I even I have gotten 9's in the 1974 set
Ian
With respect to the question of building a set in 9 versus 8, and whether this is an ego thing, I would simply respond to each their own.
I am not a dealer, but a collector, and I really enjoy looking at the cards I buy and remembering players from my childhood and their stats (even if I was a very little kid for the first cards that I bought) and it is much more enjoyable for me to see cards that are better centered on the front and on the back and do not have dinged corners. They are also nicer to show to my younger brothers when they visit.
As well, if you collect more than a few sets, there are enough 9's out there to keep you busy bidding and collating for quite some time.
I would also say that a nice side effect to the rise in prices of 9's (other than the disadvantage that the cards are more expensive) is that it seems to have gotten a lot of dealers who have product to break it out and send it in to get graded, thereby increasing the supply of 8's and 9's for everyone.
On the all 9 set, it seems like it will probably take three to five years to put one together, if it is very possible, because even though some of the late 60's and early 70's set might have near or over 2000 9's, there is certainly no even distribution.
Well those are just my thoughts, but I did want to respond to the idea that just because I might bid on 9's I think I "might be better" than other collectors. Collecting is still a personal thing for many.
Thanks
Chris (ebay chris_renaud)
Welcome to the board!
mikeschmidt, Davalillo,
Thats what I like to see! People putting their money where their mouths are!!! But, I have to tell you... I think the sets that have the best shot at hitting that magic 9.00 mark are those where you only have one or maybe 2 people with the cash for 9's. I suspect that short of a family tragedy, that the Revere set will make it before the end of 2003. As for the 67 and 72, unless Sky is having a much easier time finding 9's and 10's that he still needs than I am, I figure best I can hope for is 8.70 by end of 2002 and 8.85 by end of 2003. There are just too many players (roughly 7 collecting 9's & 10's) in 72, for me to grab as many high end cards as I'd like.
Sets - 1970, 1971 and 1972
Always looking for 1972 O-PEE-CHEE Baseball in PSA 9 or 10!
lynnfrank@earthlink.net
outerbankyank on eBay!
Bob
the first set, I think, will come from the 70's maybe 74 or 75. I think there are plenty of ungraded cards for those years to have at least one set as 9's.
as for a dream 9 set. I would love to see a 1957 set in 9's. First year with the standard size, great pic's and not to mention the tallent base of players!
ChrisKK
Fleer's release of several wax boxes a few years back really exploded the availability of these cards -- and nearly half the set exists in PSA 10. It is out there, but I am just not sure if anyone is going to step up and claim the fame....yet
Second: 1969 Topps
Third: 1975 Topps
Outside contendors rounding out the Top 10 (1979 Topps, if anyone ever grades commons; 1956 Topps -- I am pretty sure that there is at least one set out there that is over 8.50 that is not registered; 1972 Topps as well).
Other, smaller sets also have good shots: 1963 Fleer, 1959 Fleer Ted Williams, even 1948 Bowman has a chance in 5 years.
I also give Bob Earhart a 4-year goal of finishing off his 1969 Topps Super set in PSA 10 if he is upgrading -- I believe he now only needs seven cards.
Sixty eight will happen before anyone else because I can't see anyone else slamming in $500 bids for 1 of 1 PSA 9 commons other than Revere on a regular basis. Sky has a real shot with the 67 set - but I bet he's still 3+ years away from finding that last 9.
And I don't know about an "all 9" set but I'm betting that Steve Peckovich's 1971 Topps "The Headache" will be at 8.3 or 8.4 within the next year.
Sets - 1970, 1971 and 1972
Always looking for 1972 O-PEE-CHEE Baseball in PSA 9 or 10!
lynnfrank@earthlink.net
outerbankyank on eBay!
1) 1968 [Revere will successfully acquire any card that he needs in "9" if it exists]
2) 1967 [Skylaneflyer is not done!]
3) 1976
?1969? What are the odds of getting a PSA 9 Roy White, Lou Brock or Mike Shannon in the same set? Not likely. There is also a myriad of condition sensitive cards that exist in other series. In addition, we haven't even touched on the variation scarcities!
Ron
With 1969, I was suggesting that someone would build a set with a weighted grade average of over 9.00 -- even if it has a few 8's in the set, the 10's will balance it out. I do agree that there are some cards that may never exist in PSA 9.
All this coming from a collector of the 1955 Bowman set -- where not even half of the cards exist in PSA 9, and probably never will. If it wasn't for Paris, TN, the set would probably be tougher to build than a 1948 Leaf set.
As far as the 69' set goes I am firm in my belief that it will not happen; especially, as Bob says, one endeavors to complete the set with the white letters as I have. My "whites" are all 6,7 or 8OC grade and a collector would have to work diligently just to accumulate some of those white commons in a like grade. Bob's "whites" are amazingly rare and could only be understood by other collectors who have attempted to pursue them. "Whites" certainly drag down my GPA but I feel they are necessary for this set. Thats just my personal choice regarding the appeal of this sets construction.
We have talked often and actively on these boards about "tough" cards in this set. There are dozens of them.
If you canvassed the 5 or 6 top guys occupying the 69' registry with 8+ GPA's they all uniformly continue the pursuit of Mint grade but would probably all acknowledge they are likely to spend their lifetime getting there and maybe still fall short. And your talking about the "Best of the Best" in my book.
MikeSchmidt - Even with the addition of "10's" this will still be a tough road to hoe with the 69' set.
Frank - I agree, 70's sets with persistance, patience and cash are likelier candidates outside of the Revere 68' set.
Bob, Dan, Ron, Gemint, 69Topps8, and JohnC- I wish you the best of luck in proving me wrong!
RayB69Topps
Remember that some of the hobby stalwarts like Charlie, Marshall (and probably Davalillo, too) have high-graded complete PSA sets -- that were from their personal collection -- e.g., they built the sets themselves, raw, back in the day, and when they finally graded out, there were many 8s, 9s and even 10s.
The reason I say this: I know that at least one, if not all three of those individuals (and others like them) have multiples of each set. So, for example, one of those three might have five, six or seven sets of 1954 Bowman. And none of those sets are even completely graded yet. Sure, there is one set of the six or seven that represents their best, constant upgrades, etc., but I would bet that, at minimum, each one of those sets would grade out at EX/MT or Near Mint, with many cards that would grade 7, 8 and even 9. If one of those collectors has five such high grade sets from the 1950s -- how many sets from 1960 have they put away over the years? Ten? Twenty? Fifty? Who knows? I certainly don't. But what I'm saying, and what Davalillo may have indirectly been eluding to, is that there are some collectors out there...not many, mind you, but some that may have large numbers of complete sets that were assembled for corners and colors 20 or 30+ years ago, and have sit dormant in boxes/albums ever since. If they ever decided to grade out their sets -- the populations could explode.
Remember -- all it takes is one find or one such person/dealer to start grading their collection out to change the whole picture of the landscape. I may sound like an old fart, but I remember when the Population Report for 1968 Topps #512 Grant Jackson was two in PSA 9 MINT and zero in PSA 10 GEM MINT. One find -- and everything changed...
1978T - Frank Smith is already over 40% complete at a GPA of 9.04
1975T - 80% with over 8.50 GPA is tops in the registry - and there's another set not in the registry which approaches that.
1968T
Here's why-
With 1978T, there's a good bit of unopened material - and a TON of high-grade raw cards - and the top 3 or 4 set builders are actively submitting cards. And there's a decent amount of eBay traffic for 78s. At the rate this set has been going, my guess is this set will be done in PSA9 either by the 2003 National or by the end of 2003.
With 1975, there's a ton of very high-grade raw cards out there. But you also have 3 or 4 of the top set builders actively helping each other much the way the 72 collectors have. And you have collectors and dealers submitting 1975s. I think this set can be finished in 9 by the end of 2004.
With 1968, there are still some high-end ungraded examples left but the biggest thing is you have some of the most fanatical collectors of this set who are willing to spend whatever it takes.
Mike
I wholeheartedly agree that a PSA 9 average grade 1969 set even if you have a bunch of 10's is nearly impossible. For starters, the white letter variations should put that notion to rest. Furthermore, some of the psa 9 white letter variations are not visually appealing and may even be worse than the PSA 8s. Even the PSA 9 WL Mantle cards; how can one justify $30,000+ for a card with a PSA 10 floating around out there?
Nevertheless, I believe that an 8.5 is possible yet extremely challenging and it can be accomplished with the Mantle(both variations), Jackson and Ryan all in PSA 8.
Ron
Groucho Marx
One thing I find interesting and I believe that the registry has caused this is that in the past, once serious vintage collectors finished a nrmt-mt set they moved onto the next or perhaps worked on several at the same time. I am surprised that many collectors just focus on one set. I don't think its a money issue here as once you have one set in 8, it is cheaper to collect another in 8 rather than upgrade the one you have to 9. Nothing wrong with this--I just find it surprising. If one looks back to 1957 and before, you see many of the same names. While some are trying to cntinually upgrade many are content with psa 8 sets
Frank you are underestimating yourself--you will have a set rating of over 9.00 by year-end 2003.
Also, Mike Schmidt is correct about many of the smaller sets and in other sports. There are a couple of serious vintage collectors of 1948 Bowman Basketball, 1957 topps basketball and 1961 Fleer basketball who must have unbelievable sets by now given what I have sold them and my knowledge of where they are.
Personally, I'm content with 8's. I'll take 9's when I can pick them up for a reasonable price or get them from my own submissions. But I'd rather have 1965-69 PSA 8 graded sets than one PSA 9 1969 set for example.
Mike
I am curious. Do you believe this is also the case with the red man tobacco sets from 52-55?
Are you aware of many nice red man cards in raw condition awaiting to be submitted? Are there
some sets that might be tough in high grade from the 50's or 60's?
aconte
These are very tough sets. In my opinion and I am far from an expert, the 55 Red Man set is marginally easier but for 52-55 Red Man there are between 302-367 total cards graded in each set with the sets having between 55-108 8s and a total! of just 10 9s. While I am sure there is some ungraded material out there, I think most of it is off condtion. I have complete sets which I bought in Mr. Mint auctions as mint in the early 1990s--my set rating was just 6.53 for 1953 and 7.26 for 1955. I have gotten some pretty aggressive offers for certain cards in my set. SMR for 8s and9s is definately low for these sets.
As to other sets that are tough from the 1950s and 1960s, I'll restrict my comments to just sets that I collect:
1954 Wilson Franks
1954 DanDee
1952 Bowman Football(large)
1952 Bowman Football(small)
1953 Bowman Football
1968 Topps 3D--especialy the Flood and the Powell
Nick
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I still, therefore maintain that it is extremely unlikely that anyone will get there, probably impossible, even on the base set of 664.
This statistic excludes completely the variations that the PSA set registry requires for the 69' set also.
I dont even know if there is another post war set with this many POP holes at the PSA 9 grade.
RayB69Topps
I'll bet if you canvassed the casual observer who knew little about the 69' set that it would be somewhat of a surprise that a full 33% of that set had yet to achieve a 9 grade.
I am sure that over the next 5 years the zero POP designation for half of that 33% will be achieved; however, as has been pointed out earlier the miriad of "tough" cards in this set makes for the inevidibility that many holes at the PSA 9 level may never be plugged by a single example.
MS - You do have your work cut out for you on that 55' Bowman and yours is a quality effort.
On a side note, I just love when apost has "legs" like this one.This topic applies to all sets and fosters 5 or 6 seperate conversations at the same time and has been known to birth new posts on similar subjects.
Nice going Frank.
RayB69Topps
So with the variations there are about 240 without a 9. Thats why I originally said I would bow down to anyone who could make this set in 8.5 complete. Its just going to get really super tough with the competition when some of these real tough cards surface. (If they surface). I'm not as convinced as alot of others that there's tons of raw cards in NRMT-MT or Mint conition out there. The guys who have the bulk know the tough cards. If they had them they would be available. Time will tell.
I believe Revere told me that if he put the remaining cards in the set in 8 he would complete the set with a 9.06 rating.
Bob
That's amazing! I wonder if he keeps track of how much he's spent building that set? The cost must be staggering!