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919900% - Largest Price Realized vs. PCGS Price Guide Difference?

ZoinsZoins Posts: 33,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited August 9, 2020 11:07AM in U.S. Coin Forum

I just ran across this beautiful coin which sold for $138,000 and has a PCGS Price Guide price of just $15.

Is this the largest difference in terms of absolute dollars or percentage?

Not that PCGS Price Guide means that much for errors, but it's a fun statistic!

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    HydrantHydrant Posts: 7,773 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Are you sure all the info is correct?

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    MFeldMFeld Posts: 12,056 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 9, 2020 11:06AM

    @ms70 said:
    The cert entry must be a mistake since it doesn't mention the error.

    The cert number on the PCGS cert verification page matches the cert number in the picture of the coin in the linked auction listing. And the auction coin shows on the cert verification page. Strange!

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

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    Wahoo554Wahoo554 Posts: 1,088 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Cool coin. How on earth do such error coins end up getting struck in the first place?

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    WalkerfanWalkerfan Posts: 8,976 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 9, 2020 11:08AM

    I'm certain that the PCGS guide price of $15 is for a non-error coin.

    The PCGS coin information makes no mention of the error, despite what the slab indicates.

    “I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~

    My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947)

    https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/

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    IkesTIkesT Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The $138,000 coin is the 1999 Lincoln cent obverse/Roosevelt Dime reverse mule.

    PCGS #3154 and the other info listed below is for the normal 1999 1c RD - hence the Population 412, Pop Higher 563, and Price Guide $15 for MS 66RD.

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    MFeldMFeld Posts: 12,056 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Zoins said:
    I just ran across this beautiful coin which sold for $138,000 and has a PCGS Price Guide price of just $15.

    Is this the largest difference in terms of absolute dollars or percentage?

    Not that PCGS Price Guide means that much for errors, but it's a fun statistic!

    Since the price guide value is for a non-error coin, the price realized for an error shouldn’t qualify or be considered for the largest difference in terms of value or percentage.

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

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    ZoinsZoins Posts: 33,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 9, 2020 11:35AM

    @Wahoo554 said:
    Cool coin. How on earth do such error coins end up getting struck in the first place?

    This is a 1999 coin, a year known for lots of very interesting error coins. I wonder what it would have been like to work at the Mint in 1999.

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    ZoinsZoins Posts: 33,910 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If not this one, anyone have thoughts on what would be the one with the largest difference?

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    IkesTIkesT Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Zoins said:
    If not this one, anyone have thoughts on what would be the one with the largest difference?

    Interesting question; I don't know if there is a clear answer. It probably depends on your point of view.

    The one that came to mind for me is the 1976 $1 No S Type 2, which is a trial strike with only 1 known extant example:

    https://www.pcgs.com/coinfacts/coin/1976-1-no-s-type-2-silver/62402

    The PCGS Price Guide is $850,000 for PR66, but as there are apparently no previous sales of this coin, that figure is speculative. Not to downplay the significance of this coin, by any means - it is extremely significant, in my view - but $850,000 is an order of magnitude higher than the price of any other Ike dollar that has ever sold. There are some dramatic Ike dollar errors that have sold in the lower 5 figures at auction. The highest price I know of is $40,250 for a mated pair sold at Heritage:

    https://coins.ha.com/itm/errors/1973-s-1-eisenhower-dollar-indented-by-173-gm-planchet-mated-pair-pr67-and-pr67-rb-ngc/a/454-3523.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515

    The next highest priced Ike dollars (also errors) sold through Heritage for <$30,000.

    The $850,000 figure is several times higher than even the 1922 peace dollar patterns. The 1975 no S proof dimes come closest in value - they've sold for $349,600 and $456,000, so perhaps PCGS is estimating the value of the Ike primarily based on the value of these dimes.

    Is the $850,000 Price Guide value a reasonable estimate or is it an order of magnitude too high? It depends what other coins you think are most comparable in value. The only way to know for sure is if the coin comes up for sale.

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    MFeldMFeld Posts: 12,056 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @IkesT said:

    @Zoins said:
    If not this one, anyone have thoughts on what would be the one with the largest difference?

    Interesting question; I don't know if there is a clear answer. It probably depends on your point of view.

    The one that came to mind for me is the 1976 $1 No S Type 2, which is a trial strike with only 1 known extant example:

    https://www.pcgs.com/coinfacts/coin/1976-1-no-s-type-2-silver/62402

    The PCGS Price Guide is $850,000 for PR66, but as there are apparently no previous sales of this coin, that figure is speculative. Not to downplay the significance of this coin, by any means - it is extremely significant, in my view - but $850,000 is an order of magnitude higher than the price of any other Ike dollar that has ever sold. There are some dramatic Ike dollar errors that have sold in the lower 5 figures at auction. The highest price I know of is $40,250 for a mated pair sold at Heritage:

    https://coins.ha.com/itm/errors/1973-s-1-eisenhower-dollar-indented-by-173-gm-planchet-mated-pair-pr67-and-pr67-rb-ngc/a/454-3523.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515

    The next highest priced Ike dollars (also errors) sold through Heritage for <$30,000.

    The $850,000 figure is several times higher than even the 1922 peace dollar patterns. The 1975 no S proof dimes come closest in value - they've sold for $349,600 and $456,000, so perhaps PCGS is estimating the value of the Ike primarily based on the value of these dimes.

    Is the $850,000 Price Guide value a reasonable estimate or is it an order of magnitude too high? It depends what other coins you think are most comparable in value. The only way to know for sure is if the coin comes up for sale.

    The question was about the amount or percentage realized over a published price guide value. It wasn’t about the highest price or value, relative to another coin in the series or a related coin. The 1976 No-S dollar you mentioned hasn’t sold publicly, to be able to compare its price against the price guide.

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

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    IkesTIkesT Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 9, 2020 1:39PM

    @MFeld said:

    @IkesT said:

    @Zoins said:
    If not this one, anyone have thoughts on what would be the one with the largest difference?

    Interesting question; I don't know if there is a clear answer. It probably depends on your point of view.

    The one that came to mind for me is the 1976 $1 No S Type 2, which is a trial strike with only 1 known extant example:

    https://www.pcgs.com/coinfacts/coin/1976-1-no-s-type-2-silver/62402

    The PCGS Price Guide is $850,000 for PR66, but as there are apparently no previous sales of this coin, that figure is speculative. Not to downplay the significance of this coin, by any means - it is extremely significant, in my view - but $850,000 is an order of magnitude higher than the price of any other Ike dollar that has ever sold. There are some dramatic Ike dollar errors that have sold in the lower 5 figures at auction. The highest price I know of is $40,250 for a mated pair sold at Heritage:

    https://coins.ha.com/itm/errors/1973-s-1-eisenhower-dollar-indented-by-173-gm-planchet-mated-pair-pr67-and-pr67-rb-ngc/a/454-3523.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515

    The next highest priced Ike dollars (also errors) sold through Heritage for <$30,000.

    The $850,000 figure is several times higher than even the 1922 peace dollar patterns. The 1975 no S proof dimes come closest in value - they've sold for $349,600 and $456,000, so perhaps PCGS is estimating the value of the Ike primarily based on the value of these dimes.

    Is the $850,000 Price Guide value a reasonable estimate or is it an order of magnitude too high? It depends what other coins you think are most comparable in value. The only way to know for sure is if the coin comes up for sale.

    The question was about the amount or percentage realized over a published price guide value. It wasn’t about the highest price or value, relative to another coin in the series or a related coin. The 1976 No-S dollar you mentioned hasn’t sold publicly, to be able to compare its price against the price guide.

    My example doesn't fit the letter of the question, exactly, but I think it's an interesting example, nonetheless.

    If that coin sold tomorrow, it could become the coin with the highest price to Price Guide disparity - or not; you never know.
    .
    .
    Another question: if you consider only the question of realized price vs. price guide, how do you measure the disparity? They are not all going to be clear-cut. For example, say 3 coins of the same grade/variety have sold, 2 for $1,000 each, and 1 for $100,000. Say the Price Guide is $100,000. How would you calculate the disparity - just the difference between Price Guide value and the average of the 3 sales prices? In that case, the average value is $34,000, so the disparity would be $66,000.

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    MFeldMFeld Posts: 12,056 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @IkesT said:

    @MFeld said:

    @IkesT said:

    @Zoins said:
    If not this one, anyone have thoughts on what would be the one with the largest difference?

    Interesting question; I don't know if there is a clear answer. It probably depends on your point of view.

    The one that came to mind for me is the 1976 $1 No S Type 2, which is a trial strike with only 1 known extant example:

    https://www.pcgs.com/coinfacts/coin/1976-1-no-s-type-2-silver/62402

    The PCGS Price Guide is $850,000 for PR66, but as there are apparently no previous sales of this coin, that figure is speculative. Not to downplay the significance of this coin, by any means - it is extremely significant, in my view - but $850,000 is an order of magnitude higher than the price of any other Ike dollar that has ever sold. There are some dramatic Ike dollar errors that have sold in the lower 5 figures at auction. The highest price I know of is $40,250 for a mated pair sold at Heritage:

    https://coins.ha.com/itm/errors/1973-s-1-eisenhower-dollar-indented-by-173-gm-planchet-mated-pair-pr67-and-pr67-rb-ngc/a/454-3523.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515

    The next highest priced Ike dollars (also errors) sold through Heritage for <$30,000.

    The $850,000 figure is several times higher than even the 1922 peace dollar patterns. The 1975 no S proof dimes come closest in value - they've sold for $349,600 and $456,000, so perhaps PCGS is estimating the value of the Ike primarily based on the value of these dimes.

    Is the $850,000 Price Guide value a reasonable estimate or is it an order of magnitude too high? It depends what other coins you think are most comparable in value. The only way to know for sure is if the coin comes up for sale.

    The question was about the amount or percentage realized over a published price guide value. It wasn’t about the highest price or value, relative to another coin in the series or a related coin. The 1976 No-S dollar you mentioned hasn’t sold publicly, to be able to compare its price against the price guide.

    My example doesn't fit the letter of the question, exactly, but I think it's an interesting example, nonetheless.

    If that coin sold tomorrow, it could become the coin with the highest price to Price Guide disparity - or not; you never know.
    .
    .
    Another question: if you consider only the question of realized price vs. price guide, how do you measure the disparity? They are not all going to be clear-cut. For example, say 3 coins of the same grade/variety have sold, 2 for $1,000 each, and 1 for $100,000. Say the Price Guide is $100,000. How would you calculate the disparity - just the difference between Price Guide value and the average of the 3 sales prices? In that case, the average value is $34,000, so the disparity would be $66,000.

    I think you’re making this far more complicated than it is. The OP asked about the largest difference (in terms of dollars or percentage) between a price realized and the PCGS Price Guide.

    So in answer to your question, if the price guide is $100,000 and the highest price obtained for any of the three coins is $100,000, none of them have exceeded the price guide value. And the largest disparity - in this case, below, rather than above price guide - is $99,000.

    I know of no instances in which coins have sold for anywhere near as low as 1% of price guide, like in your example. And whatever the winning coin/sale might be in response to this thread’s question, I’m confident it will be a coin which brings far more (as opposed to far less) percentage-wise than the price guide.

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

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    oldUScoinsoldUScoins Posts: 234 ✭✭✭✭

    $138,000? Wonder when the counterfeiters will start producing these - and other “heretofore undiscovered rarities”.

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    mannie graymannie gray Posts: 7,259 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @oldUScoins said:
    $138,000? Wonder when the counterfeiters will start producing these - and other “heretofore undiscovered rarities”.

    It is likely they already have.

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    ZoinsZoins Posts: 33,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 10, 2020 12:07AM

    @mannie gray said:

    @oldUScoins said:
    $138,000? Wonder when the counterfeiters will start producing these - and other “heretofore undiscovered rarities”.

    It is likely they already have.

    I'm guessing it would be tempting. It's pretty neat to think this 1999 cent is worth as much as a 2011 Ferrari 458.

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    rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I would just like to find one of the cent/dime coins in change.... :D Maybe not, at my age, that could be dangerous. ;) Cheers, RickO

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    airplanenutairplanenut Posts: 21,910 ✭✭✭✭✭

    How did they not note the double error? That's a rotated reverse!

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