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Rising gold prices and the collectible gold market
erwindoc
Posts: 4,950 ✭✭✭✭✭
How much does this affect the price of non-bullion collector coins? Say coins MS65 graded or up?
0
erwindoc
Posts: 4,950 ✭✭✭✭✭
erwindoc
Posts: 4,950 ✭✭✭✭✭
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slightly...
Not much.
I am doing a set of $2.50 gold Indian in PCGS AU 58 minus the key date. These coins are now costing about 20% more.
My casual observation is that everything gold is up from 2019. Anything I want to buy anyway!
+20% seems about in the ballpark.
My Gold Type Set
They go up, traditionally.
Not much in current market, trend been down since 2010...
BV and Numismatic value are not the same thing.
Agree, though as others have noted what is being asked can be seen to have increased, but just try selling for that same 20% and it is a different matter.
Bullion value (plus premium) and numismatic value are two different areas, though the bullion value may at times of a rising market may eat into the numismatic premium. Of course, this is not a 'rule', and often cases can be shown where the effect is not present. Many variables such as rarity and market conditions come into play. Bottom line is 'know your product, know the market'. Cheers, RickO
MS65 $20 Hi Relief - essentially 0% (same comment for MS65 $1, $2-1/2, $3, $4, $5, $10 gold pieces).
MS65 $20 Saint - about a 23% premium to melt (1.23X melt)
If the gold price rises high enough the metal price premiums on MS65 Saints will probably shrink to 3-10% over melt.
This is a far cry from 1989 when slabbed MS65 Saints were $4000 each at a gold price of around $500 (8X). The premiums have been sliding ever since. In Nov 2009 MS65 Saints brought about 2X their melt value.
A chart of MS65 Saint Premium to Melt vs. Certified MS65 population over time would be illustrative of this trend ...
How many more are Pcgs and Ngc slabbing- today?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
How many more are being slabbed year by year? LOTs. It's not that these $20's are being coined today....but returning from hiding all around the world to the TPG's. In the end, it actually isn't much different than IF they were being coined today.
A lot of things about so called human intelligence upset me.
My Saint Set
@ReadyFireAim
Great picture (can I steal it?) and nice set of Saints!
Sure
You can see a wave of green on the PCGS price sheet where lower grade coins catch up in value to higher graded ones.
Check out the 1915-S in 64-65
I takes a LONG time before the rising tide lifts the gems/premium gems. (auction prices recorded)
In the mean time, those that have them, just feel insulted.
https://www.pcgs.com/prices/detail/st-gaudens-20/67/most-active
My Saint Set
US Gold Better dates value based more on demand / market conditions.
US Gold Coins trading close to BV will fluctuate based on price of gold especially generic high pop issues. They are in competition with slabbed mods and slabbed world gold (much lower pops). Many are starting to wake up to fact Mexico 50 Peso early 20th century Gold and second republic gold very scarce vs US pop wise and searching for this material either slabbed or to put on slab bus. USGTC probably saw their heyday around 1989.
Uggg @Jinx86 don't do it. Sell at spot no need to melt those beautiful girls.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Mama needs a new Cartier bracelet sourced from that pot.
+20%?
Older pic back when I could buy these at 99% of melt and net 99.5 from my refiner.
I had to laugh.
Thought to myself that's got to be an older picture.
Still a shame I dont have one of those yet.
It is somewhat convoluted but rising PM prices drive the numismatic market in a very big way.
Almost all but the largest coin dealers make a significant % of their income by simply buying and selling PM related materials.
Whether it is jewelry, bullion or coins they profit off the buy-sell spread and the PRICE -VOLUME of activity.
Stocks, coins, PMs or Beanie Babies....... rising prices lead to rising volume of trades and vice versa.
Also a 3% buy-sell spread on $1000 gold is 1/2 of the same profit with $2000 gold.
Now many if not most of those dealers do have some real personal interest in the numismatic market and as their incomes increase with rising prices so does their interest in adding to their own collection.....
Same thing with collectors. ...most find it easier to add to a position in a rising market than to add in a declining market.
Net-net to a significant degree rising PM prices drive volume, profit and interest in general.