Do You Consider the PCGS3000 Index an Accurate Representational of the Coin Market?
philographer
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Well, the last 10 years aren’t looking so good from a financial perspective when you consider the broad PCGS3000 index.
Do you consider this an accurate depiction of the coin market?
Is this an index you look at from time to time? How has this figured into your collecting direction, if at all?
He who knows he has enough is rich.
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What does the term 'coin market' really mean? Nothing, in my opinion. There are lots of niche areas, some holding up well, others on life support. Furthermore, we have gone through a recession and are now in more economic trouble. The average Joe collector is on the sidelines. CAC has also had an influence--coins without beans are in disfavor with collectors having more funds to spend.
This kind of index is something that an investor, having little experience with coin pricing over decades, might pay attention to. Since most collector coins are not really rare, shouldn't one expect a downward trend in a time of economic uncertainty?
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
I think it reflects what has truly been happening for the bulk of the coin market. There are many series trading lower than they were a few years ago,Morgans and Walking Liberties come to mind. The top end of the market has been stable as people here often point out but that's only a section of the market.
These numbers are based on the PCGS price guide as far as I know. I do recall the price guide being more overpriced in the past than it is now. Some changes in how they update prices could affect the trend over time as well.
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"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
If you don't like the last 10 years, how about the last 50?
It reflects a downward trend but, given the many specialties in the coin market may overstate or understate many areas badly.
Don't forget the endorphin rush from a NEWP.
I am waiting for the coins I like to drop in price, and waiting, and waiting and waiting.
The Index tracks regular issue and commemorative US federal coins. It does not include pre-federal "colonial" era coins. So I don't pay much attention to it. In my opinion, excluding pre-federal coins or other widely collected coins means that it cannot be an accurate reflection of the coin market. It can only represent the coins included in the index.
It does not measure the coins i collect. So to answer the OP , at least for me it is not an accurate depiction of my coin market
I get the feeling that it's accurate overall.
In a bifurcated world, prices will be weighted to the vast majority of coins going down vs. the few coins going up.
Good questions.
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0%
If we were all the same, the world would be an incredibly boring place.
Tommy
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None
Yes, I feel it is generally accurate.
Yes, I look at it occasionally.
It's my money, I can burn it in the street if choose to.
It seems directionally correct to me. I usually only look at it when it's posted on this forum. It does not impact my collecting direction at all. I am not in this as an investment.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
No
Nope
Nada
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
It accurately portrays what it is trying to portray. Is that the "coin market"? Maybe. But I actually don't know anyone who collects the entire market. So, it is what it is.
I think the PCGS 3000 could equivalently be called the "Morgan Dollar and Other Common Coin Index". I prefer this one:
LIBERTY SEATED DIMES WITH MAJOR VARIETIES CIRCULATION STRIKES (1837-1891) digital album
Two thoughts.
First, keep the scale and limits of the Y-axis in mind. If you do, you’ll see that the 3000 index is down around 20-25% and the key dates & rarities index is down 10-15% ( in rough terms) over the last 10 years. It’s not so different than it looks from cropped portions of the respective charts.
Second, if you account for inflation, it’s actually much worse than it looks. Cheery, eh?
I am not in the coin business. I am involved in the coin hobby - the collecting part.
Which means my answers to the OP would be no, no, 0%. I have not yet seen the much discussed 'market depression prices' on any coins that interest me. However, patience is a strength of mine... 
Cheers, RickO
That's still like negative 15% for the last decade.
Pretty ugly if you care about returns.
I like this. Haha.
That way, anything I get out is a bonus!
Charts can be misleading when it comes to coins. Unlike stocks there is more subjectivity about price.
For instance, gradeflation has always been an issue. The index looks at a coin in a particular grade 10 years ago and compares it to the same grade now. We all know that nice coins have been broken out of slabs and regraded at a higher grade. The chart does not take that into consideration (it isnt an insignificant number). The ms64 you bought 10 years ago may now be in a ms65 slab and worth far more than that chart would suggest.
This was one reason CAC began was to help reward coins that were solidly graded and not have the weak coins or overgraded coins bring down prices.
Coins that are strong for their grade continue to do well (check out the prices on the lib quarter eagles in the regency auction that were cac au58 ---1861-s and 1862-s).
Those with a good eye amd patience do far better than that chart suggests.
Yes. It generally gives the direction and value of the overall US collector coin market. While no one may collect this same way.....dealer's inventories and auction house offerings do mirror those holdings. It does represent money flows and liquidity of the overall market over time. And money flow drives the collector market. Obviously the trend since 1989 has been down....and same for from 2008 and onward. When money flows tighten up, that tends to affect all areas of the market .....including the areas most of us collect in.
I actually think the general trends DO take into accounts the slabbed grading changes of the past 30 years. Many portions of the PCGS3000 are raw circ coins....and the grading on those has not changed much. I suspect the PCGS 3000 and the individual portions of it don't mean much to those who don't study market trends and charting. After doing that for the past 15 yrs, there's lots of charting info to be gotten from those charts. And that can be combined with TA theory, Elliot Waves, Fib sequences, cycle theory, etc. Coin markets don't react in a vacuum....and they do not exactly follow other markets such as Stocks, Bonds, interest rates, precious metals, etc. So collectable coins deserve their own charts.
If 1994-2008 in the PCGS3000 was just a B wave bounce, look out below when this C wave gets into the acceleration phase. That would probably coincide with a multi-year SM crash (similar to 1990-1996). Or...the B wave bounce is not yet complete and something similar to what gold has done from 2016-2020 is still in the cards for rare coins. Which is more likely? On the plus side, the PCGS 3000 from 2014 to 2020 shows a very respectable/completed 5 waves down. On the other hand key dates and rarities quadrupled from 1994 to 2008....and have only modestly corrected by 16%. And they advanced 30X from 1970 to 2008....very much in line with gem type coins....where most gem coins peaked in 1989. Imagine how lousy the PCGS3000 would look today if it didn't have the rarities/key date indexes and gold indexes dragging up the dive-bombing of the other indexes. Lots to consider.
Sort of.
No.
No.
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Never
The coin market has many subsets that have evolved further based on condition rarity and how that rarity is presented and perceived.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.