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2020 Uncirculated Gold Eagle Limited Mintage
SenateSaloon
Posts: 114 ✭✭✭
I wonder what the Mint is up to on this one? Limited to 9000 and one per household. Product 2020EH is a bit of a mystery to me. I seem to recall that uncirculated Eagles have sold fewer than 10k in past years without the limit. Thoughts?
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$605 premium! lol
only individuals buying these will be hoping there are no other individuals willing to pay that premium. Speculation coin.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Limited market for these coins...as is typical with most gold issues. Low mintage, high premium. Probably will not sell out in the first hour....
Cheers, RickO
Last year, the 2019-W $50 Burnished Gold coin sold 5,851 units last time I looked. I could not find the coin in the most recent online report so if anyone has a better mintage figure, please let me know. This created the Third lowest Mintage for the series. It was originally priced WAY less than the 2020-W coin will likely be priced at. The last (2) SP70FS Flag labels 2019-W coins Sold on eBay could not even fetch $2,000 each from what I saw. This would result in a net of a touch over $1,800/coin for perfect 70 graded PCGS coins. Hence, almost all the US Mint Substantial premium right down the drain on those sales not even a year later. Not to mention the grading fees.
So (other than a handful or two of coins for inventory at best) why should I “bite” on the 2020s unless I see the sales at a pathetic few thousand coins sold after 2-3 weeks? Seriously?
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
1 Grid pricing for the Uncirculated American Gold Eagle Increased $300.00 on March 17, 2020
2 LKS for 2013 was 7,293
LKS for 2014 was 7,902
LKS for 2015 was 6,533
LKS for 2016 was 6,887
LKS for 2017 was 5,800
LKS for 2018 was 8,518
LKS for 2019 was 5,851
The last 2019 Uncirculated American Gold Eagle was sold for $1,890.00
IF the 2020 Uncirculated American Gold Eagle was offered Today , the price would be $2,340.00.
...Thus...IF the United States Mint sold 9,000 coins, they would be Extremely Happy...
Just too high of a markup. Lots of potential collectors lost due to this.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
Devaluing my dollar with those premiums.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
...Thus...IF the United States Mint sold 9,000 coins, they would be Extremely Happy...
Agreed. So perhaps the Mint is limiting mintage to 9000 and starting with a household limit of 1 to try to generate demand and create a frenzy. If so I think they will fail.
Well, it has become obvious that the US Mint has loss faith in its central bank. lol
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Thank you Mitch. I appreciate it when you come in and give your “two cents“ that is worth significantly more than that considering inflation and good judgment.
bought these unc. W's by the truck load since they first came out and always flipped 70s for a great profit. Stacked silver monster boxes with some of the profits. They are no longer profitable.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
“Thank you Mitch. I appreciate it when you come in and give your “two cents“ that is worth significantly more than that considering inflation and good judgment.”
MilesWaits... my pleasure. Now, if I could have only followed derryb and not held 25%-50%+ of all my W burnished gold PCGS 70s waiting for the day the collector base would rise sharply. That day appears a long time coming and derryb has already filled his shed out back with silver monster boxes with his profits while I now wait for a continuing rising gold spot to “lift all boats” because waiting for the collector base to grow in this series has been like watching the grass grow for the past 14 years!
Just my $50 worth on these!
Wondercoin
I still have a few W AGEs in inventory. Need one?
I believe the collector base is still there, just waiting on lower spot to result in lower prices. Most collectors wait and buy these graded. Current high spot price makes MS70s bought from the mint and submitted for grading prior to 2016 profitable; the earlier the date, the higher the profit. What hurts this year's W is high spot and very high premium. Sellers don't see the return they would like as soon as they would like it. This will likely result in no sellout, a lower than planned number of sales (mintage) and eventually very high resale prices once the new norm of high gold prices settles in. Profits on these, if any, are a few years away. My 07 and 06's bought from the mint for $1250 and $1275 demonstrate down the road profitability as long as gold price climbs. Sellers who see a continued year over year rise in gold should probably buy and submit a few of these.
I think I just talked myself into it. lol
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Derryb: 2006-W Burnished Gold coins cost just a few bucks over spot back in 2006... yes? They were the “scrap” coins in the 3-pc 20th Rev Pr. Anniv sets for example. They didn’t cost $1,250 as far as I recall. In fact, you could buy (10) reverse proof gold sets for around $26,000 from the Mint and sell off the W burnished coins for a few bucks over melt (ditto for the regular proof coin) and be in the Rev. Proof coins for maybe $1,100 or $1,200 that were worth more than twice that much the next day. If memory serves me right, the $26,000 cost on the (10) sets was worth $40,000-$50,000 upon receipt of the sets! And, again, those 2006-W $50 gold burnished were trading around melt in 2006. Have I remembered this correctly or am I just getting too old?
Compare the First year 2006-W burnished gold experience to perhaps the last year 2020-W experience. In 2020-W, the Mint wants us to pay $600 a coin over spot? And, for a mintage roughly 50%-60% more than they could sell all of last year? Just what am I missing here? I don’t get it. Educate me please.
Wondercoin
Edited to add.. you sold a 2006-W $50 Gold NGC-70 on eBay in April for a touch over melt after deducting fees. So, the coins were worth a touch over melt in 2006 and still worth a touch over melt 14 years later in 2020... agreed? So, how will one make up the $600 premium today?
I think it's a bit of an illusion based on the rising gold price. Anything bought before the gold run up in 09/10 looks profitable, even with a high premium paid. If gold drops back to $1200-1400 (which wasn't so long ago, btw), there's zero chance of making money on 70s.
Derryb's argument mentions the continuing rise in gold. I'm sure when gold gets to 2200, 70s wil return a paper profit.
Jmlanzaf- exactly... please read my “edited to add”.
Wondercoin
My bad, looking at wrong coin in my database. 06's and 07's much cheaper.
Let's look at the low mintage (5829) 2012 W. Records show one of the lots I bought from the Mint cost 1888 per coin ($220 premium). Gold averaged $1668 that year. Graded them NGC MS70ER and flipped them same year for avg. of $3K per coin. My gains were very high because I flipped in "prime time" right after their release. My buyers were paying a $1332 premium over spot.
2012 W NCG MS70ER just sold for $2579 on ebay May 21. We saw gold peak and then crash to $1100 since the 2012 was released, then recover, yet last month's May 21 ebay sell price for this same coin was $2579, $691 over raw cost in 2010 and $839 premium over May 21 spot price.
My point is that a while a higher premium will cut into near term profits, it may very well be good profit in a few years provided gold continues to rise. This holds truer for a higher volume seller such as yourself than it does for a much smaller volume seller like myself. Remains to be seen what immediate flipping profit on the 2020 would be, but I would expect it to be pretty good as long as gold price is stable or even higher. Remember, a $200 mint buyer premium in 2012 was likely viewed initially as a "not gonna be much profit in this one initial scenario." As 2012 showed us a low mintage unc. W, in a rising gold price environment, can provide very good profit margin. I believe the collector/secondary market base is there to support this. They were paying very high premiums for 70's in late 2012 and to this cay pay what I consider a very good premium for the same coin. And, as shown since 2012, a crash and recovery of spot price can bring back good profits.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
derryb... 2012W might be an aberration as it was the lowest mintage coin for 11 years of the series. So, folks were paying $3,000 for those 70s and, as you mention, have lost between 15%-20% over the past 8 years on their investment. But, when you run the same numbers for Buys in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016... I think the returns were nothing like 2012.
I think we are in agreement though that a 9,000 mintage coin at $600 over spot (2020) may likely not perform equally as well as the near spot cost of the 2006-W coin (gold at $600 or $700/oz as I recall in 2006) or even the $220 premium of the sub-6,000 mintage 2012 coin.
This thread is entitled “2020 Unc. Gold Eagle Limited Mintage”. I ask- what limited mintage? “Where’s The Beef”?
Wondercoin
Premium for a 2012 W unc. $50 AGE bought from the mint was 13%. Premium for the 2020 W (based on current spot) will be 35%. Those of us that have been buying and selling modern gold for a while likely thought the 13% was high at the time. Makes it much easier to balk at the now 35% premium. But what if this is the new norm and in nine years it will be considered low as the 2012 13% premium is now viewed?
There were secondary buyers of gold coins at 8%, 13%, 18%, and 25% mint premiums. There will very likely be secondary buyers at a mint 35% premium. Think of it as a continuous paradigm shift.
The only thing that reduces willingness of secondary market buyers to pay prices based on these mint premiums is a decline in gold price. So it really boils down to what ya think is gonna happen with gold when deciding if you are willing to pay this 35% premium.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Time and rising spot prices and only because I don't expect US Mint gold premiums to ever go down.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left