Who's buying stock right now? Edit: I told you so. It's happening. Up, up, up.
fivecents
Posts: 11,207 ✭✭✭✭✭
I am.
MSFT
AAPL
CVX
AMZN
GE
CLCT
I'm also a AU AG bug.
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I’m buying leveraged oil (UCO) and it’s options. Also short of the Dow 30 x 3 (SDOW).
Are you short SDOW or saying you are short the DOW30 via SDOW?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
No I’m buying SDOW to short the market. I’ll buy UDOW when things eventually shake out but who knows when that”ll be. It’s amazing how bad the news is, how many people aren’t working, and all the jobs that will be lost and how sustaining of an effect this will have on our economy but yet there seems to be so much upward pressure despite all that???
I don't need to buy no stinking stocks. The FED is buying them for me.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
I’m in this camp. There will be plenty of time to get back in
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suckers-stock-market-rally-122402728.html
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
OK, NMR, so you are thinking oil goes higher and the DOW goes lower.
Interesting.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Just trying to get good deals for 5 to 10 years down the road. The stocks will go down, down. But eventually the strong run stocks will right themselves.
In the post virus world no more person to person. School classes, board meetings, everything will be run on "the cloud". At some point Amazon will have fast and fresh delivery service. Ice cream deliveryed within minutes to your pourch in July. Also Amazon is going to bypass the USPS and use amazon delivery for everything.
Seems to be a lot of assumption everywhere one looks that the virus will be history soon and everything will be back to normal. I'm not buying it. I think equities will reach -50% of their highs before it's over. I'm keeping TVIX in the on deck circle. It's been good for short ins and outs over the past two months. The euphoria of FED buying will be short lived.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Then the Fed will just buy and give more money. Trump said.."Whatever it takes".
@cohodk - Oil is at 20 year lows - it has to go up. They are selling it for less than it costs for them to get it out of the ground in the US. And we can’t lose our energy industry. Can you imagine the devastation?! Ain’t gonna happen immediately but it has to get to 30s at least in the next few months. Can’t really believe in any kind of rally with oil at these levels.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Lot of interesting thoughts in this thread. While I'm usually optimistic, were just getting started. Keeping the powder dry for now until more info is available ..
Good read below: Make your own comparisons..
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/world/coronavirus-response-lessons-learned-intl/index.html
Never stopped buying. I was buying yesterday, and I will be buying today and I suspect tomorrow as well.
I live well below my means and make it a point to park 50% of my salary in the bank/casino/stack.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
I bought AMZN @ $1,835 it's up to $2,335 per share. Crazy !
I understand your reasoning on oil. It has never been so low in relative terms vs equities or gold.
Im just not so sure i would want to be short equities if oil went back to 35.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'm buying, since early March...extremely long term/portfolio holds with dividends in play.
Well played. You bought at near lows ...so far.
Yeah we'll see. At 10+ year lows I figured why not, especially on stuff I've been tracking 15-20 years.
I sold AMZN early in the dive at 1929.70. Bought it back at 1641.51. My wife thinks I'm a genius (I'm diplomatically selective about what trade activity I discuss with her).
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
You timed that trade to perfection. Very well played sir.
I talked my wife into buying herself 6 shares of AMZN @ $1,835. She had her personal money just sitting in CD's. She's up $3,000 in days. After she had the money doing nothing for years.
To her I am a hero. I told her it really was just dumb luck.
@cohodk - Agree I’m only in SDOW for the short term. Far too much unrealistic enthusiasm for me to stay short - I just want to make some easy money w/o having to work for it. But look, this morning jobless claims a 1/4 million higher than expected at 5.25 million for a total of 22 million unemployed in just 4 weeks- and the stock market response??? Yeah- lets go up. It’s bizarre and a disconnect from reality. I don’t necessarily think we’re retesting lows but I don’t think, especially working on the front lines in a hospital that any good news is coming that will have things like they were before coronavirus. So, we have to head further down I think before we can have sustainable upside.
Lows will be tested. Current stock multiples are high based on TTM, and ridiculously high based on projections. This is assuming that everyone returns to work by June, a vaccine is widely available in a year (unlikely), and that infections do not return in any significant numbers in the meantime (also unlikely). The Fed and Treasury are now one, so the only way stock valuations can go up is with significant inflation through continual support. In that case, one is probably better off holding physical PMs. PM ownership is, in effect, joining the fed as much as any stock purchase, but without the downside risk. The Fed and Treasury (one in the same now) are going to throw at a minimum $5-10T at the problem.
I am---------in out,in out. Today in V, cop
Already have dividend rolling in from March's buys. Feels good.
Picked up COP today as well.
Don't tell me, you are using your visa card to purchase oil and you are storing it in your swimming pool to increase US reserve capacity?:)
I got out in 1 account, but not all accounts right before the fit hit the shan. A few stocks have come back quite a bit, but not fully. I'm thinking that I should should take whatever profits are available now and sit on the sidelines until mid May. There's nothing more dis-illusioning than earning the same money over and over again. if the re-opening proves to be too soon, stocks are going to take it in the shorts.
My wife thinks I'm a genius (I'm diplomatically selective about what trade activity I discuss with her).
lol, smart thinking.
I knew it would happen.
Lows will be tested. Current stock multiples are high based on TTM, and ridiculously high based on projections. This is assuming that everyone returns to work by June, a vaccine is widely available in a year (unlikely), and that infections do not return in any significant numbers in the meantime (also unlikely). The Fed and Treasury are now one, so the only way stock valuations can go up is with significant inflation through continual support. In that case, one is probably better off holding physical PMs. PM ownership is, in effect, joining the fed as much as any stock purchase, but without the downside risk. The Fed and Treasury (one in the same now) are going to throw at a minimum $5-10T at the problem.
+1
PMs are an indirect beneficiary of Fed policy, but still with some degree of risk, albeit small. Stock markets tend to go up when the central banks are creating tons of new money. Like now.
When a single share of stock goes for over $1,000 - you know that somethings' up. Especially when, as RobM points out - the current multiples are quite high, especially given the current shutdown situation and it's long-term ramifications. I think it's way too early for stocks. All of this monetary policy fluff has to shake out before reality returns.
I knew it would happen.
Suppose there are 2 identical companies, producing the same exact product, making the same exact profit, have no debt, ect. They each make $1,000,000. Company A has 1,000,000 shares valued at $1 each. Company B has 1000 shares valued at $1000 each. You are saying that there is "something up" with company B because the price is $1000?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
EPS
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Used to do a stock split when the stock price went way high. Do companies even do stock splits anymore?
Suppose there are 2 identical companies, producing the same exact product, making the same exact profit, have no debt, ect. They each make $1,000,000. Company A has 1,000,000 shares valued at $1 each. Company B has 1000 shares valued at $1000 each. You are saying that there is "something up" with company B because the price is $1000?
Well, you and I both know that the number of shares outstanding has a little bit to do with the answer to your question. We both also know that $1,000 doesn't go quite as far as it used to go. Right?
I knew it would happen.
Unless one is buying silver. Now you can get twice as much as 8 years ago. HAHA. Sorry. Cant help it. Maybe
its relative value against other popular assets makes it a better deal now.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
No one really knows the extent to which the economy is going to be damaged. Once things return to "normal" we will have a better idea of how many jobs and businesses will be gone forever. In 3-4 months, we will see all the defaults on investment properties, rentals, primary homes, car loans, business loans, credit cards and everything else that was temporarily pushed off. Don't get me started on the number of student loans in forbearance or default, that number will go through the ROOF with restaurants, retail and other low wage jobs going POOF. Once those issues start rearing their ugly head is when the economy will start looking scary.
Liquidity has been pumped into the market...and again, we don't know how much. The 25%ish jump in the market is temporary and looks like an extended dead cat bounce to me. We all better hope that the china virus goes away and stays away, cause if there is a round #2 of this in the fall, were F'd big time.
I'm lucky that my wife and I both have our jobs and that our families are healthy and in good financial positions. I feel bad for my fellow Americans who want to work and pay their bills and can't...
Stay healthy and HELP your neighbors if you can!
I think it is a sucker rally.
Oil in the swimming pool?? Don't be silly, I lined the pickup box with a plastic tarp and filled it with gasoline.
I lined the pickup box with a plastic tarp and filled it with gasoline.
Quite some time ago, I got to witness what 1 gallon of gasoline looks like when some associates burned a big pile of tree trimmings and downed trees. Let me just say that it was very impressive.
I knew it would happen.
Silver is primarily an industrial commodity. As such it and other industrial commodities took a hit in the current crisis.
What you fail to realize or point out is that when it was high 8 years ago, it had recovered remarkably from the crisis two years prior. What makes it a good great deal now is not its relative value to other assets but its demonstrated resiliency over all those other popular assets. Dang, the glass is half full, not half empty.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
If you have any semblance of common sense and sufficient financial cushion, you get to sell when prices are higher, and you can actually buy when it's advantageous to do that. The last time I sold any appreciable amount of silver, it was in the mid $30 range. The last time I bought an appreciable amount, it was $17 or so, although I paid some premium for a monster box of the pucks. (not nearly the premium that's in effect now, however)
I knew it would happen.
I kinda remember a fairly robust economy over the past 8 years, so with silver being "primarily" an industrial metal, why did it not trade higher during this time? Have you failed to realize this?
I sure hope it goes up now...weve all been waiting.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Not I.
I sold to buy a building. No more rent now. But taxes are like rent. We will never really have ownership except for debt. Remember "this note is legal tender for all debts public and private.." And it's all debt in America. Rich men carry a heavier debt load, if you consider the deficit.
How would ya like to be a billionaire and all you had were IOU's. LOL. Sorry for my twisted perspective.
Premarket surging over the company Gilead. Gilead has a COVID 19 treatment drug that seems to be working!!
Most patients using the drug have been released from medical care!!!!
Hell yeah...please be true.
This Gilead drug could cause a quick medical and economic recovery from the pandemic!
Congratulations 2Sides!! That's something to be proud of in this enviroment.
Sorry about the cut-and-past, but this seemed relevant:
Curb Your Enthusiasm on Gilead
11:18 am ET April 17, 2020 (Dow Jones) Print
By Charley Grant
A viable treatment for Covid-19 is desperately needed, but investors are way too enthusiastic about the latest potential breakthrough.
Stat News reported Thursday that a subset of Covid-19 patients receiving the drug remdesivir had improved. Of 113 patients in this subset, only two had died and the majority of the others had been discharged from the hospital. These patients are enrolled in a larger clinical trial.
Shares of Gilead Sciences Inc., which owns the drug, surged Friday in response. Since Covid-19 data readouts have implications for the entire economy as a whole, the report was likely a factor in Friday's market rally.
While that news is wonderful for the patients involved and encouraging for the general public, investors should be skeptical. The exuberance is "out of control," Baird analyst Brian Skorney said in a note to clients. "We are cautious on interpretation of what amount to leaked case reports, given the frequency with which we have seen randomized, controlled data refute previously 'encouraging' data from small, uncontrolled studies." More definitive answers about whether the drug works are unlikely until late May, he added.
Another issue is that, while these patients are considered to have severe symptoms, none were on mechanical ventilators or experiencing organ failure. It is unclear whether the death rate experienced in this subset is any different from that of patients not receiving the drug. There is still no clear data on whether the drug reduces viral load in patients, which is key to understanding its true power.
Even if the drug helps patients get better, investors are ignoring other relevant considerations. Remdesivir is administered intravenously in a hospital setting and carries the risk of significant side effects. It is unrealistic to expect the drug to be useful for all Covid-19 patients. An effective treatment for some will be a big step forward toward a return to normal life, but won't solve other key problems, such as insufficient testing.
As for investors buying Gilead shares, any future sales would be barely significant, since the company already books about $20 billion in annual revenue. The company has committed to donating the initial supply of remdesivir if the drug proves safe and effective, which is enough to treat 140,000 patients. Its shares trade at 12 times 2019 adjusted earnings -- already on the rich side for a large biotech company.
That is good news for humanity. Investors shouldn't confuse that with good news for Wall Street.
Write to Charley Grant at charles.grant@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
I wouldn't call it twisted at all. Most choose to just turn a blind eye and go with the flow. You see things for what they are. It is what it is.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Maybe supply simply kept up with or even exceeded demand.
I believe that to be the case. Somehow, someway, demand needs to increase faster than supply.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear