Holding out.

Pedzola

I passed on a nice coin yesterday. I have been looking for a nice MS66 $20 Saint that wouldnt break the budget for well over a year. Seems like I missed my window with the recent price surge. So as I was looking at some 65's instead on ebay I came across one that looked better than most 66's. Ms65 price now is about what my budget was for a 66. But i decided that with the look of this coin I would buy the coin not the number on the slab. Thought this was finally the one.

Fast forward to the auction ending last night - I thought I could definitely win it, and it sold for less than I would have paid. I didnt bid, because of a number of reservations:

1) What if I need the cash? My job is not in danger, and we are in good shape financially, but maybe a family member needs some help, etc. The world is a scary place right now. Am I being irresponsible buying coins instead of building reserves?

2) What if some great investing opportunity comes up? I am not an active investor. I don't touch my 401k, and dont even have a trading account. But everyone I know is talking stocks and looking to get rich on the rebound. Maybe the cash would be better deployed elsewhere vs coins.

3) Maybe coin prices drop. At 2100+ right now an ms65 saint is priced much higher than spot gold. When I bought my last ms65 Saint I only paid like $100 over spot. Will the bottom fall out of the coin market with millions losing jobs? Or will bullion surge and keep the price high for common saints?

4) its a widget, right? Ive been looking for a long time for a saint that meets my criteria. This could have been the one. But still, it wasnt "perfect". There are gobs of ms65 and 66 saints. There will be another one out there for me eventually.

5) Shipping. If I buy it, what if something happens when it is shipping across the country? Will usps et al keep delivering "non-essential" packages if half their workforce is quarantined? Will i need to go pick it up at the post office when I should be at home? Even in normal times our mailperson decides about 50% of the time they'd rather not drive down our driveway and just leaves a pickup slip in the mailbox. It is frustrating normally, today it could be dangerous.

So taking that all into consideration I decided to pass. There will be another nice saint in my future I'm sure, but for now I'm probably going to hold off.

I didnt think this pandemic would change my buying pattern much but I guess it has. Many are in much more pain, literal and financial. I wonder where the rare coin and bullion markets are going in the next 6 months.

ricko

Based on your enumerated points, you made a good decision. There are many nice Saints out there.... When this situation ends, you likely will still have funds for coins (based on what you said), and perhaps enough to get a nice 66+....Hang in there... This too shall pass...Cheers, RickO

jonruns

99% of the coins that you pass on will come around again within a year or two.

My coin purchasing is also paralyzed by the pandemic, we own a small business and our revenue is at 50% and honestly I don't see this changing anytime soon. I feel lucky because we are healthy and many we know have small businesses that are at 0%. And I don't think it will be back to business as usual for a while for restaurants, sports, salons, airlines etc. even when the current restrictions are lifted.

Smudge

I think many collectors are thinking the same way now, making things tough for dealers. Maybe if they put some nice collector coins on sale (wink wink) coins would move rather than sit unsold for a long time.

habaraca

Hopefully you don't overthink everything to such extreme.... Maybe you would enjoy the hobby more if you relaxed a bit.

ReadyFireAim

I've seen a weird price spread compression in saints where lower grade commons sneak up on higher grade coins because of gold price.

The 1911-D in 65 is the same price as the 65+ right now.
https://www.pcgs.com/prices/detail/st-gaudens-20/67/most-active

I don't think gold bugs really care about collector coins & higher grade stuff won't be effected much until this pandemic is over or maybe longer than that.

In other words...I think you're safe.

ms70

Along the same lines about a week ago I saw a piece on eBay I really, really loved but could have done without. I went back & forth on it for the same reason of keeping cash just in case. I decided to move forward and purchased it. After the transaction was done the seller sent me a nice note telling me how much he appreciated the sale as he and his wife have fallen on difficult times with the virus situation. I was far more happy that it helped the seller than I was about the coin.

Pedzola

@habaraca said:
Hopefully you don't overthink everything to such extreme.... Maybe you would enjoy the hobby more if you relaxed a bit.

Thanks for the laugh. Most who know me would agree with you. I am guilty of overthinking most things.

MS70 I thought of this too. I really was debating right up to the last seconds of the auction. I imagine anyone with an impacted business right now is going to struggle. We have been trying to support the local ecomony as much as possible.

Smudge I agree I think a good discount could overcome other concerns!

We'll see what the next couple of months bring.

CoinJunkie

If you felt any trepidation about the potential purchase, you were right to pass. There will be plenty of other Saints to choose from down the road.

50cCOMMEMGUY

I think you made the right call.
I was all gung-ho about continuing to buy until 5 days ago when nearly all of my once completely reliable overtime was cut to a whopping two hours. There went the play money....😩
I’m not in a bad spot by any means but what had been a rock of income for years was taken in a blink of an eye.

jmlanzaf

@Smudge said:
I think many collectors are thinking the same way now, making things tough for dealers. Maybe if they put some nice collector coins on sale (wink wink) coins would move rather than sit unsold for a long time.

Maybe if collectors would sell their coins at a reasonable price, I could charge less. (wink wink)

MilesWaits

Still “collecting” bullion at a meaningful price.
That trigger gets pulled, regardless.
I even divested myself of some palladium recently.
And did you hear, around 60 of us got a new Libertas!?!

Fishpro

I had been a strong buyer for the last few years, but I’m out of the market till things play out. I very well might need the cash. As for any big shows in the next few months, not going to happen. I’m thinking late fall or next year for any shows. FP

Downtown1974

I think you made the right choice. Nothing wrong with overthinking in my opinion, but I have always been a pro-active person rather than reactive. We’re in similar situations. I’m still working and will probably never have to worry about being unemployed. Still, in these uncertain times...coins have been put on the back burner.
There’s really only 3 coins I’m actively searching for. Everything else is just going to have to wait. Maybe if I can find some bullion at a good price I would add some but I’m not seeing any deals out there.

vplite99

There is just no reason not to sit out right now. There will be some nice stuff available because some collectors will need the money.

skier07

If you’re not comfortable buying don’t and wait until you’re comfortable. Bottom line, a coin is nothing more then a piece of metal which none of us need. 99% of coins which we pass on today will be available again in the future.

WildIdea

@Pedzola

1) What if I need the cash? My job is not in danger, and we are in good shape financially, but maybe a family member needs some help, etc. The world is a scary place right now. Am I being irresponsible buying coins instead of building reserves?
5) Shipping. If I buy it, what if something happens when it is shipping across the country? Will usps et al keep delivering "non-essential" packages if half their workforce is quarantined? Will i need to go pick it up at the post office when I should be at home? Even in normal times our mailperson decides about 50% of the time they'd rather not drive down our driveway and just leaves a pickup slip in the mailbox. It is frustrating normally, today it could be dangerous.

>
Exactly, these are the 2 biggest concerns.
Clearly the shipping infrastructure will be disrupted. With a glut of online orders shocking the system, personnel illness issues and strikes, the future if this sector looks confused at best. I won’t be placing any online orders myself unless absolutely necessary.

It shouldn’t take an intellectual to see the forecast here, good on you for listening to your gut. Sadly, this will take some longer than most to figure out.

savitale

You bring up some very good points and I too have passed on a couple coins in recent weeks that I would have purchased under different circumstances.

Justacommeman

Not to mention that 65 Saints literally grow on trees.

m